Opinion Poll by I&O Research, 30 October 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 19.2% 17.9–20.6% 17.5–21.0% 17.2–21.4% 16.6–22.1%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 11.9% 10.9–13.2% 10.6–13.5% 10.3–13.8% 9.8–14.4%
Democraten 66 12.2% 11.7% 10.7–12.9% 10.4–13.3% 10.1–13.6% 9.6–14.2%
GroenLinks 9.1% 10.3% 9.3–11.4% 9.0–11.8% 8.8–12.1% 8.3–12.6%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 9.5% 8.5–10.6% 8.3–10.9% 8.0–11.2% 7.6–11.7%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 7.4% 6.5–8.4% 6.3–8.7% 6.1–8.9% 5.7–9.4%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 7.1% 6.3–8.1% 6.0–8.4% 5.8–8.6% 5.5–9.1%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 6.9% 6.1–7.8% 5.8–8.1% 5.6–8.4% 5.3–8.9%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.4% 3.8–5.2% 3.6–5.4% 3.4–5.7% 3.1–6.1%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 3.5% 2.9–4.3% 2.8–4.5% 2.7–4.6% 2.4–5.0%
50Plus 3.1% 3.4% 2.9–4.2% 2.7–4.4% 2.6–4.6% 2.3–4.9%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.5% 2.1–3.2% 1.9–3.4% 1.8–3.5% 1.6–3.9%
DENK 2.1% 1.6% 1.2–2.1% 1.1–2.3% 1.0–2.4% 0.9–2.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 30 27–32 27–32 26–32 26–34
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 18 16–19 16–20 16–20 15–21
Democraten 66 19 18 15–20 15–20 15–20 14–21
GroenLinks 14 15 14–17 13–19 13–20 12–20
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 15 14–16 13–16 12–18 11–18
Forum voor Democratie 2 11 11–13 10–13 9–13 8–15
Socialistische Partij 14 11 9–12 8–13 8–13 8–14
Partij van de Arbeid 9 10 9–12 8–12 8–12 7–13
ChristenUnie 5 7 6–8 6–9 5–9 4–9
Partij voor de Dieren 5 5 4–7 3–7 3–7 3–7
50Plus 4 5 4–5 4–6 3–6 3–7
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 3 2–5 2–5 2–5 2–6
DENK 3 2 2–3 2–3 1–3 1–4

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.3% 99.8%  
26 4% 99.5%  
27 23% 96%  
28 9% 72%  
29 10% 63%  
30 9% 53% Median
31 11% 45%  
32 32% 34%  
33 1.3% 2% Last Result
34 0.4% 0.6%  
35 0.2% 0.2%  
36 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.2% 100%  
15 2% 99.8%  
16 24% 98%  
17 12% 74%  
18 19% 62% Median
19 36% 43%  
20 5% 7% Last Result
21 2% 2%  
22 0.2% 0.3%  
23 0% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.4% 100%  
14 0.9% 99.6%  
15 20% 98.7%  
16 11% 78%  
17 10% 67%  
18 20% 57% Median
19 26% 37% Last Result
20 9% 12%  
21 2% 2%  
22 0% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.7% 100%  
13 5% 99.3%  
14 30% 95% Last Result
15 18% 65% Median
16 20% 47%  
17 17% 27%  
18 3% 10%  
19 2% 7%  
20 5% 5%  
21 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.6% 100%  
12 4% 99.4%  
13 3% 96%  
14 9% 92%  
15 60% 84% Median
16 19% 24%  
17 2% 5%  
18 2% 3%  
19 0% 0.1% Last Result
20 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 1.4% 100%  
9 1.3% 98.6%  
10 6% 97%  
11 66% 91% Median
12 13% 25%  
13 10% 12%  
14 1.2% 2%  
15 0.7% 0.7%  
16 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.2% 100%  
8 9% 99.8%  
9 19% 91%  
10 18% 72%  
11 43% 54% Median
12 2% 10%  
13 8% 9%  
14 0.7% 0.7% Last Result
15 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 1.5% 100%  
8 7% 98.5%  
9 30% 91% Last Result
10 17% 61% Median
11 33% 44%  
12 8% 10%  
13 2% 2%  
14 0.1% 0.2%  
15 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 2% 100%  
5 3% 98% Last Result
6 39% 95%  
7 38% 56% Median
8 9% 18%  
9 8% 8%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 9% 100%  
4 40% 91%  
5 20% 52% Last Result, Median
6 11% 32%  
7 21% 21%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 4% 100%  
4 9% 96% Last Result
5 80% 86% Median
6 6% 7%  
7 0.7% 0.8%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.2% 100%  
2 10% 99.8%  
3 53% 90% Last Result, Median
4 25% 36%  
5 11% 11%  
6 0.5% 0.5%  
7 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 4% 100%  
2 72% 96% Median
3 23% 24% Last Result
4 0.7% 0.7%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 90 84 100% 81–88 79–88 79–89 79–89
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 85 80 95% 76–81 75–82 74–84 72–85
Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Socialistische Partij – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 80 75 50% 73–78 73–78 72–81 70–82
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 77 71% 72–81 72–81 72–81 72–81
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 74 74 39% 69–77 69–77 69–77 68–78
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 76 69 0% 66–72 64–73 64–74 62–75
Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 66 65 0% 62–67 62–69 61–69 59–70
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 64 0% 61–68 61–69 60–69 59–69
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 71 62 0% 60–66 58–66 57–67 56–68
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 63 0% 58–66 58–66 58–66 56–67
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 61 0% 57–64 57–65 56–65 56–65
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 59 0% 56–63 56–64 56–64 54–64
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 61 57 0% 55–60 54–61 53–62 52–64
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 56 0% 53–59 52–60 52–60 51–60
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 55 0% 51–58 51–58 50–59 49–59
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 45 0% 42–47 41–47 40–48 40–49
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 47 43 0% 41–44 40–46 39–47 37–47
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 40 0% 36–43 36–43 36–43 36–46
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 38 33 0% 30–35 30–36 29–36 27–36
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 32 0% 30–35 29–35 28–35 27–36
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 26 0% 23–27 22–28 22–28 21–29

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0.1% 100%  
79 6% 99.8%  
80 1.2% 94%  
81 4% 93%  
82 3% 89%  
83 21% 86%  
84 25% 65%  
85 5% 40% Median
86 10% 34%  
87 6% 24%  
88 15% 19%  
89 3% 3%  
90 0.4% 0.4% Last Result
91 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.4% 100%  
72 2% 99.6%  
73 0.3% 98%  
74 2% 98%  
75 1.3% 96%  
76 22% 95% Majority
77 2% 72%  
78 7% 70%  
79 3% 63%  
80 29% 61% Median
81 25% 31%  
82 3% 7%  
83 0.1% 4%  
84 2% 4%  
85 2% 2% Last Result
86 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Socialistische Partij – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.3% 99.9%  
70 0.2% 99.6%  
71 1.3% 99.3%  
72 2% 98%  
73 29% 96%  
74 9% 67%  
75 8% 58%  
76 13% 50% Median, Majority
77 25% 37%  
78 8% 12%  
79 1.0% 4%  
80 0.2% 3% Last Result
81 0.3% 3%  
82 2% 2%  
83 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 16% 99.7%  
73 1.2% 84%  
74 3% 83%  
75 8% 79%  
76 17% 71% Majority
77 6% 54% Last Result, Median
78 7% 48%  
79 3% 41%  
80 20% 38%  
81 17% 18%  
82 0.2% 0.3%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.7% 99.8%  
69 16% 99.2%  
70 4% 83%  
71 1.4% 79%  
72 10% 78%  
73 9% 68%  
74 14% 59% Last Result, Median
75 6% 45%  
76 9% 39% Majority
77 29% 29%  
78 0.4% 0.5%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 2% 100%  
63 0.2% 98%  
64 4% 98%  
65 1.2% 94%  
66 5% 93%  
67 21% 88%  
68 3% 67%  
69 24% 64%  
70 20% 40% Median
71 3% 20%  
72 9% 18%  
73 6% 9%  
74 0.2% 3%  
75 2% 2%  
76 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.9% 99.9%  
60 0.7% 99.0%  
61 1.1% 98%  
62 24% 97%  
63 2% 73%  
64 2% 71%  
65 25% 69% Median
66 23% 44% Last Result
67 13% 21%  
68 0.5% 8%  
69 7% 8%  
70 0.6% 0.8%  
71 0.2% 0.2%  
72 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.2% 99.9%  
59 0.5% 99.7%  
60 3% 99.2%  
61 21% 96% Last Result
62 14% 75%  
63 5% 61%  
64 11% 56% Median
65 3% 45%  
66 22% 42%  
67 2% 20%  
68 9% 18%  
69 9% 9%  
70 0% 0.3%  
71 0.2% 0.3%  
72 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 2% 99.9%  
57 0.5% 98%  
58 3% 97%  
59 2% 95%  
60 7% 93%  
61 28% 86%  
62 23% 58%  
63 14% 35% Median
64 3% 21%  
65 6% 18%  
66 9% 12%  
67 0.7% 3%  
68 2% 2%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.5% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.5%  
57 2% 99.4%  
58 17% 98%  
59 2% 81%  
60 3% 79%  
61 9% 76%  
62 15% 68%  
63 9% 53% Median
64 10% 44%  
65 13% 34%  
66 20% 21%  
67 0.7% 0.9%  
68 0.2% 0.2%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.2% 99.8%  
56 3% 99.6%  
57 8% 97%  
58 16% 89% Last Result
59 8% 73%  
60 14% 66%  
61 8% 52% Median
62 3% 44%  
63 31% 41%  
64 2% 11%  
65 9% 9%  
66 0% 0.3%  
67 0.2% 0.3%  
68 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.2% 99.9%  
54 0.7% 99.7%  
55 0.7% 99.0%  
56 21% 98%  
57 14% 78% Last Result
58 7% 64%  
59 12% 57% Median
60 3% 45%  
61 22% 42%  
62 0.9% 20%  
63 10% 19%  
64 9% 9%  
65 0.2% 0.2%  
66 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.1% 99.9%  
52 2% 99.9%  
53 0.7% 98%  
54 6% 97%  
55 16% 91%  
56 8% 75%  
57 18% 67%  
58 30% 49% Median
59 2% 19%  
60 11% 17%  
61 3% 6% Last Result
62 1.0% 3%  
63 1.1% 2%  
64 0.6% 0.6%  
65 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0% 99.9%  
50 0.3% 99.9%  
51 0.7% 99.6%  
52 6% 98.9%  
53 16% 93%  
54 13% 77% Last Result
55 9% 64%  
56 10% 55% Median
57 3% 45%  
58 30% 42%  
59 2% 11%  
60 9% 9%  
61 0.3% 0.3%  
62 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.6% 99.8%  
50 2% 99.2%  
51 19% 97%  
52 7% 78%  
53 8% 71%  
54 11% 64%  
55 5% 52% Median
56 12% 48%  
57 10% 35%  
58 21% 25%  
59 5% 5%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0.1% Last Result
62 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100%  
39 0.3% 99.9%  
40 2% 99.6%  
41 4% 97%  
42 18% 93%  
43 17% 75%  
44 4% 58%  
45 9% 53% Median
46 4% 45%  
47 37% 41%  
48 1.1% 4%  
49 2% 2%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0% Last Result

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.4% 100%  
36 0.1% 99.6%  
37 0.4% 99.6%  
38 0.4% 99.2%  
39 2% 98.8%  
40 3% 97%  
41 21% 94%  
42 13% 73%  
43 39% 60% Median
44 11% 20%  
45 2% 10%  
46 4% 7%  
47 3% 3% Last Result
48 0.1% 0.2%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0% 99.9%  
34 0.1% 99.9%  
35 0.2% 99.8%  
36 23% 99.6%  
37 1.0% 76%  
38 12% 76%  
39 13% 64%  
40 2% 51% Median
41 21% 49%  
42 4% 28% Last Result
43 22% 24%  
44 0.2% 2%  
45 1.3% 2%  
46 0.6% 0.6%  
47 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.5% 100%  
27 0.1% 99.5%  
28 0.5% 99.5%  
29 2% 99.0%  
30 22% 97%  
31 7% 74%  
32 11% 67%  
33 12% 56% Median
34 31% 44%  
35 8% 13%  
36 5% 5%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
39 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.2% 100%  
26 0.2% 99.8%  
27 0.4% 99.7%  
28 3% 99.2%  
29 3% 96%  
30 27% 93%  
31 12% 67%  
32 9% 54% Median
33 31% 46% Last Result
34 3% 15%  
35 10% 12%  
36 2% 2%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.3% 99.9%  
21 0.2% 99.6%  
22 6% 99.3%  
23 7% 94%  
24 27% 87%  
25 8% 60% Median
26 42% 52%  
27 4% 10%  
28 4% 6% Last Result
29 2% 2%  
30 0% 0.1%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations