Opinion Poll by Ipsos, 2 November 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 20.3% 18.7–22.0% 18.3–22.5% 17.9–22.9% 17.2–23.7%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 12.2% 11.0–13.6% 10.6–14.0% 10.3–14.4% 9.7–15.1%
Democraten 66 12.2% 11.7% 10.5–13.1% 10.1–13.5% 9.8–13.9% 9.3–14.5%
GroenLinks 9.1% 10.0% 8.9–11.3% 8.6–11.7% 8.3–12.0% 7.8–12.7%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 9.8% 8.7–11.1% 8.4–11.5% 8.1–11.8% 7.6–12.5%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 6.3% 5.4–7.4% 5.2–7.7% 5.0–8.0% 4.6–8.6%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 6.2% 5.3–7.3% 5.1–7.6% 4.9–7.9% 4.5–8.4%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 5.6% 4.8–6.6% 4.5–7.0% 4.3–7.2% 4.0–7.7%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.1% 3.4–5.0% 3.2–5.3% 3.0–5.5% 2.7–6.0%
50Plus 3.1% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.4% 2.7–5.9%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 3.8% 3.1–4.7% 2.9–5.0% 2.8–5.2% 2.5–5.6%
DENK 2.1% 3.1% 2.5–3.9% 2.3–4.2% 2.2–4.4% 1.9–4.8%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 1.9% 1.4–2.6% 1.3–2.8% 1.2–3.0% 1.0–3.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 30 30–31 29–33 27–34 26–36
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 17 17–21 17–21 17–21 15–22
Democraten 66 19 17 17 16–18 16–19 14–21
GroenLinks 14 15 13–15 13–16 13–18 12–19
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 15 14–15 14–16 14–16 12–18
Forum voor Democratie 2 9 9–11 9–11 8–11 7–12
Socialistische Partij 14 10 9–10 9–10 8–11 6–12
Partij van de Arbeid 9 10 8–10 8–10 6–10 6–11
ChristenUnie 5 6 6 5–6 4–7 4–9
50Plus 4 5 4–6 4–7 4–8 4–9
Partij voor de Dieren 5 7 5–7 5–7 4–7 4–8
DENK 3 4 4–6 4–6 3–6 3–7
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–4

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.8% 100%  
27 2% 99.2%  
28 0.6% 97%  
29 3% 97%  
30 51% 94% Median
31 36% 43%  
32 2% 7%  
33 1.5% 5% Last Result
34 1.1% 4%  
35 0.2% 2%  
36 2% 2%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 1.1% 99.8%  
16 1.0% 98.7%  
17 51% 98% Median
18 5% 47%  
19 3% 42%  
20 16% 39% Last Result
21 23% 24%  
22 0.4% 0.5%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.2% 100%  
14 0.8% 99.8%  
15 0.4% 99.0%  
16 5% 98.6%  
17 88% 94% Median
18 2% 6%  
19 2% 4% Last Result
20 1.3% 2%  
21 0.3% 0.7%  
22 0.1% 0.4%  
23 0.3% 0.4%  
24 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.3% 100%  
12 1.1% 99.7%  
13 13% 98.6%  
14 24% 85% Last Result
15 55% 61% Median
16 2% 6%  
17 0.8% 4%  
18 2% 3%  
19 0.7% 1.2%  
20 0.4% 0.4%  
21 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.3% 100%  
12 0.5% 99.7%  
13 2% 99.2%  
14 15% 98%  
15 77% 83% Median
16 4% 6%  
17 1.4% 2%  
18 0.6% 1.0%  
19 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 1.0% 99.9%  
8 3% 98.9%  
9 55% 96% Median
10 15% 41%  
11 24% 26%  
12 1.1% 1.4%  
13 0.3% 0.4%  
14 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.5% 100%  
7 1.3% 99.5%  
8 2% 98%  
9 17% 96%  
10 76% 79% Median
11 2% 3%  
12 0.4% 0.9%  
13 0.5% 0.5%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.2% 100%  
6 2% 99.8%  
7 2% 97%  
8 27% 96%  
9 6% 69% Last Result
10 62% 63% Median
11 0.6% 0.7%  
12 0.1% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.3% 100%  
4 2% 99.7%  
5 5% 97% Last Result
6 88% 92% Median
7 2% 4%  
8 1.2% 2%  
9 0.5% 0.5%  
10 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.3% 100%  
4 24% 99.7% Last Result
5 65% 76% Median
6 6% 12%  
7 2% 6%  
8 3% 4%  
9 0.8% 0.9%  
10 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100%  
4 3% 99.9%  
5 40% 97% Last Result
6 5% 57%  
7 51% 52% Median
8 0.8% 1.1%  
9 0.3% 0.3%  
10 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.1% 100%  
3 3% 99.9% Last Result
4 78% 97% Median
5 4% 19%  
6 15% 15%  
7 0.6% 0.6%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.5% 100%  
2 19% 99.5%  
3 79% 81% Last Result, Median
4 2% 2%  
5 0.2% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 90 83 100% 81–84 81–87 81–88 79–89
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 74 44% 74–81 74–81 73–81 72–82
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 85 78 95% 77–78 76–79 74–80 72–82
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 74 71 28% 71–78 71–78 71–78 69–79
Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Socialistische Partij – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 80 73 0.6% 69–73 69–73 68–74 66–76
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 76 68 0.2% 68–69 67–71 65–73 63–74
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 62 0% 62–67 62–67 62–69 59–70
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 62 0% 62–64 62–66 60–69 58–70
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 71 62 0% 62–63 61–65 60–68 57–68
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 59 0% 59–61 58–64 58–67 56–67
Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 66 63 0% 60–63 60–64 58–64 56–67
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 57 0% 57–60 56–60 54–63 52–64
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 54 0% 54–57 53–58 52–60 50–61
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 61 57 0% 56–58 55–58 54–59 51–61
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 55 0% 54–55 52–57 51–58 49–59
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 45 0% 45–46 44–48 42–50 41–52
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 47 42 0% 40–42 39–42 38–42 37–46
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 40 0% 39–41 38–41 36–42 35–44
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 38 32 0% 31–32 31–33 30–34 29–37
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 31 0% 29–31 27–31 27–32 25–33
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 25 0% 23–25 22–25 22–25 19–27

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100%  
78 0.1% 99.9%  
79 0.4% 99.8%  
80 1.0% 99.4%  
81 14% 98%  
82 2% 85%  
83 73% 83% Median
84 3% 10%  
85 2% 8%  
86 0.9% 6%  
87 1.4% 5%  
88 3% 4%  
89 0.4% 0.8%  
90 0.1% 0.4% Last Result
91 0.2% 0.3%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.1% 99.8%  
72 1.0% 99.7%  
73 3% 98.7%  
74 50% 96% Median
75 2% 46%  
76 2% 44% Majority
77 13% 42% Last Result
78 2% 29%  
79 2% 27%  
80 0.2% 25%  
81 22% 25%  
82 2% 2%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0% 99.9%  
72 0.7% 99.9%  
73 1.4% 99.2%  
74 1.3% 98%  
75 1.1% 96%  
76 2% 95% Majority
77 24% 94%  
78 63% 70% Median
79 4% 7%  
80 2% 3%  
81 0.7% 2%  
82 0.4% 0.8%  
83 0.2% 0.4%  
84 0.1% 0.3%  
85 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.8%  
69 0.4% 99.7%  
70 1.3% 99.3%  
71 51% 98% Median
72 2% 47%  
73 2% 45%  
74 2% 43% Last Result
75 13% 41%  
76 4% 28% Majority
77 0.2% 25%  
78 22% 25%  
79 2% 2%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Socialistische Partij – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.2% 99.8%  
66 0.2% 99.6%  
67 0.4% 99.4%  
68 3% 99.0%  
69 13% 96%  
70 24% 83%  
71 3% 59%  
72 1.4% 56%  
73 52% 55% Median
74 1.4% 3%  
75 0.9% 2%  
76 0.4% 0.6% Majority
77 0.1% 0.2%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.7% 99.9%  
64 0.4% 99.2%  
65 2% 98.8%  
66 0.4% 97%  
67 2% 96%  
68 62% 95% Median
69 26% 32%  
70 0.8% 7%  
71 1.4% 6%  
72 1.1% 5%  
73 3% 3%  
74 0.3% 0.6%  
75 0.2% 0.4%  
76 0.1% 0.2% Last Result, Majority
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100%  
58 0.1% 99.9%  
59 0.5% 99.8%  
60 1.0% 99.4%  
61 0.8% 98%  
62 52% 98% Median
63 2% 45%  
64 2% 44%  
65 12% 41%  
66 3% 29%  
67 23% 26%  
68 0.3% 3%  
69 0.7% 3%  
70 2% 2%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0.1% Last Result
73 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0% 99.9%  
57 0.1% 99.9%  
58 0.7% 99.8%  
59 0.4% 99.1%  
60 2% 98.7%  
61 2% 97% Last Result
62 62% 95% Median
63 1.2% 34%  
64 24% 32%  
65 1.0% 8%  
66 3% 7%  
67 0.6% 4%  
68 0.6% 4%  
69 1.0% 3%  
70 2% 2%  
71 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.8% 99.9%  
58 0.1% 99.1%  
59 1.2% 99.0%  
60 1.0% 98%  
61 2% 97%  
62 61% 94% Median
63 25% 33%  
64 1.3% 8%  
65 3% 6%  
66 1.0% 4%  
67 0.2% 3%  
68 2% 3%  
69 0.2% 0.3%  
70 0% 0.2%  
71 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
72 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.1% 99.9%  
56 0.7% 99.7%  
57 0.7% 99.0%  
58 3% 98% Last Result
59 50% 95% Median
60 12% 45%  
61 24% 33%  
62 1.3% 9%  
63 1.1% 7%  
64 3% 6%  
65 0.2% 3%  
66 0.3% 3%  
67 3% 3%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.2% 100%  
56 0.3% 99.8%  
57 0.5% 99.5%  
58 3% 99.0%  
59 0.9% 96%  
60 34% 95%  
61 2% 61%  
62 3% 59%  
63 50% 55% Median
64 3% 5%  
65 1.2% 2%  
66 0.3% 1.0% Last Result
67 0.4% 0.6%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 99.9%  
52 0.9% 99.9%  
53 0.4% 99.0%  
54 1.2% 98.6%  
55 2% 97%  
56 1.2% 95%  
57 62% 94% Last Result, Median
58 3% 32%  
59 2% 29%  
60 24% 28%  
61 0.4% 4%  
62 0.6% 3%  
63 0.4% 3%  
64 2% 2%  
65 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0% 99.9%  
49 0.1% 99.9%  
50 0.9% 99.9%  
51 1.1% 98.9%  
52 1.3% 98%  
53 2% 97%  
54 50% 94% Last Result, Median
55 13% 44%  
56 3% 31%  
57 23% 28%  
58 2% 5%  
59 0.2% 3%  
60 0.5% 3%  
61 2% 2%  
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.7% 99.9%  
52 0.1% 99.2%  
53 0.7% 99.0%  
54 2% 98%  
55 2% 96%  
56 25% 94%  
57 52% 70% Median
58 15% 18%  
59 1.1% 3%  
60 0.9% 2%  
61 0.8% 1.1% Last Result
62 0.1% 0.3%  
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0% 0.2%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 1.0% 99.9%  
50 1.3% 98.9%  
51 1.3% 98%  
52 1.5% 96%  
53 3% 95%  
54 23% 92%  
55 63% 69% Median
56 0.9% 6%  
57 1.2% 5%  
58 3% 4%  
59 0.8% 1.2%  
60 0.3% 0.4%  
61 0% 0.1% Last Result
62 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 2% 99.8%  
42 1.0% 98%  
43 0.9% 97%  
44 2% 96%  
45 62% 94% Median
46 24% 32%  
47 2% 7%  
48 0.6% 5%  
49 2% 5%  
50 0.5% 3%  
51 0.1% 2%  
52 2% 2% Last Result
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.2% 99.9%  
36 0.2% 99.8%  
37 0.2% 99.6%  
38 3% 99.4%  
39 2% 97%  
40 25% 95%  
41 17% 70%  
42 51% 53% Median
43 1.0% 2%  
44 0.2% 1.3%  
45 0.3% 1.1%  
46 0.4% 0.8%  
47 0.1% 0.4% Last Result
48 0.3% 0.3%  
49 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.3% 100%  
35 2% 99.6%  
36 1.2% 98%  
37 1.5% 97%  
38 3% 95%  
39 24% 93%  
40 52% 69% Median
41 12% 17%  
42 3% 5% Last Result
43 0.5% 2%  
44 1.1% 1.3%  
45 0.1% 0.2%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0% 100%  
28 0.3% 99.9%  
29 1.1% 99.6%  
30 1.1% 98%  
31 14% 97%  
32 77% 84% Median
33 3% 6%  
34 2% 4%  
35 0.5% 2%  
36 0.4% 1.2%  
37 0.3% 0.8%  
38 0.3% 0.5% Last Result
39 0.1% 0.2%  
40 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.2% 99.9%  
25 0.7% 99.8%  
26 0.4% 99.0%  
27 4% 98.6%  
28 2% 94%  
29 23% 92%  
30 15% 69%  
31 51% 54% Median
32 2% 3%  
33 0.8% 1.0% Last Result
34 0.1% 0.2%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.2% 99.9%  
19 0.4% 99.7%  
20 0.4% 99.3%  
21 0.6% 98.9%  
22 4% 98%  
23 25% 94%  
24 16% 69%  
25 51% 53% Median
26 0.8% 1.5%  
27 0.4% 0.7%  
28 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
29 0% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations