Opinion Poll by Peil.nl, 19 November 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 18.7% 17.8–19.6% 17.5–19.9% 17.3–20.1% 16.9–20.6%
Democraten 66 12.2% 11.3% 10.6–12.1% 10.4–12.3% 10.2–12.5% 9.9–12.9%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 10.7% 10.0–11.4% 9.8–11.6% 9.6–11.8% 9.3–12.2%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 10.0% 9.3–10.7% 9.1–10.9% 9.0–11.1% 8.7–11.5%
GroenLinks 9.1% 9.3% 8.7–10.1% 8.5–10.3% 8.3–10.4% 8.0–10.8%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 8.7% 8.0–9.4% 7.8–9.6% 7.7–9.7% 7.4–10.1%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 8.7% 8.0–9.4% 7.8–9.6% 7.7–9.7% 7.4–10.1%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 8.0% 7.4–8.7% 7.2–8.9% 7.1–9.0% 6.8–9.4%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 4.0% 3.6–4.5% 3.4–4.6% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.0%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 3.3% 2.9–3.8% 2.8–3.9% 2.7–4.0% 2.6–4.3%
50Plus 3.1% 3.3% 2.9–3.8% 2.8–3.9% 2.7–4.0% 2.6–4.3%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%
DENK 2.1% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 28 28–29 28–29 28–30 28–30
Democraten 66 19 16 16–17 16–19 16–19 16–19
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 15 15–17 15–17 15–17 15–19
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 16 15–16 15–16 15–16 13–16
GroenLinks 14 15 13–15 13–15 13–15 13–15
Socialistische Partij 14 13 11–13 11–13 11–14 11–15
Partij van de Arbeid 9 14 13–14 13–14 13–14 12–14
Forum voor Democratie 2 13 12–13 12–13 11–13 10–14
Partij voor de Dieren 5 5 5 5–6 5–6 5–6
ChristenUnie 5 5 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
50Plus 4 5 5–6 5–6 4–6 4–6
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 2 2–3 2–3 2–4 2–4
DENK 3 3 3 3 2–3 2–3

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.3% 99.8%  
28 82% 99.5% Median
29 13% 17%  
30 4% 5%  
31 0.3% 0.3%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0% Last Result

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.2% 100%  
15 0.1% 99.8%  
16 79% 99.7% Median
17 13% 21%  
18 2% 8%  
19 6% 6% Last Result
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.2% 100%  
14 0.2% 99.8%  
15 76% 99.6% Median
16 10% 23%  
17 12% 13%  
18 0.3% 0.8%  
19 0.2% 0.6%  
20 0.4% 0.4% Last Result
21 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.6% 100%  
14 2% 99.4%  
15 21% 98%  
16 76% 76% Median
17 0.3% 0.4%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.2% 100%  
13 19% 99.8%  
14 2% 81% Last Result
15 78% 79% Median
16 0.2% 0.5%  
17 0.1% 0.3%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.3% 100%  
11 11% 99.7%  
12 0.5% 88%  
13 83% 88% Median
14 3% 5% Last Result
15 2% 2%  
16 0.2% 0.2%  
17 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 0% 100%  
11 0.4% 100%  
12 1.4% 99.5%  
13 14% 98%  
14 84% 84% Median
15 0.3% 0.3%  
16 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 2% 100%  
11 1.2% 98%  
12 8% 96%  
13 87% 88% Median
14 1.2% 1.2%  
15 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 94% 99.9% Last Result, Median
6 5% 6%  
7 0.3% 0.3%  
8 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 11% 100%  
5 89% 89% Last Result, Median
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100%  
4 3% 99.9% Last Result
5 85% 97% Median
6 12% 12%  
7 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 79% 100% Median
3 18% 21% Last Result
4 3% 3%  
5 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 3% 100%  
3 97% 97% Last Result, Median
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 90 80 100% 79–80 79–80 78–80 77–83
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 85 79 99.5% 79 79–80 78–80 76–80
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie 80 79 88% 74–79 74–79 74–79 74–79
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 74 15% 74–77 74–77 73–77 73–77
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 74 72 0.1% 72–74 71–74 71–74 69–75
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 76 65 0% 65–66 65–66 65–66 63–68
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 66 66 0% 63–66 63–66 63–66 61–66
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 64 0% 64–66 63–66 62–66 61–66
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 62 0% 60–63 60–63 60–63 58–63
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 71 60 0% 60–61 60–62 60–62 59–63
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 59 0% 59–61 59–61 59–61 58–63
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 61 58 0% 58–60 58–61 58–61 56–61
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 59 0% 59–60 58–60 57–60 56–61
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 58 0% 57–58 57–58 56–59 55–59
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 57 0% 56–57 55–57 55–57 53–58
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 47 46 0% 45–46 45–48 44–48 43–48
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 44 0% 44 43–44 43–45 42–45
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 42 0% 42 42 41–44 40–44
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 35 0% 33–35 33–35 31–35 31–35
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 38 32 0% 32 31–34 31–34 31–34
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 30 0% 28–30 28–30 27–30 26–30

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0.3% 100% Majority
77 0.6% 99.7%  
78 2% 99.2%  
79 17% 97%  
80 79% 80% Median
81 0.2% 1.2%  
82 0.1% 1.0%  
83 0.6% 0.9%  
84 0.1% 0.3%  
85 0.1% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.1% 100%  
75 0.4% 99.9%  
76 0.2% 99.5% Majority
77 0.4% 99.3%  
78 2% 99.0%  
79 90% 97% Median
80 6% 6%  
81 0.2% 0.3%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Last Result

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100%  
74 11% 99.9%  
75 0.6% 88%  
76 2% 88% Majority
77 0.4% 85%  
78 9% 85%  
79 75% 76% Median
80 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 3% 99.8%  
74 81% 97% Median
75 0.3% 16%  
76 3% 15% Majority
77 12% 12% Last Result
78 0.3% 0.3%  
79 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.6% 99.9%  
70 0.3% 99.3%  
71 8% 99.0%  
72 78% 91% Median
73 0.4% 13%  
74 12% 13% Last Result
75 0.5% 0.6%  
76 0.1% 0.1% Majority
77 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.6% 99.9%  
64 0.8% 99.2%  
65 79% 98% Median
66 18% 19%  
67 0.5% 1.2%  
68 0.6% 0.7%  
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 2% 100%  
62 0.3% 98%  
63 12% 98%  
64 3% 86%  
65 7% 83%  
66 76% 76% Last Result, Median
67 0.2% 0.2%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.4% 99.8% Last Result
62 3% 99.3%  
63 6% 96%  
64 77% 91% Median
65 2% 13%  
66 12% 12%  
67 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.1% 99.9%  
58 0.6% 99.8% Last Result
59 0.7% 99.2%  
60 9% 98.6%  
61 2% 89%  
62 76% 88% Median
63 12% 12%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100%  
58 0.3% 99.9%  
59 0.6% 99.7%  
60 76% 99.1% Median
61 16% 23%  
62 6% 7%  
63 0.8% 0.9%  
64 0.1% 0.2%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.1% 99.9%  
58 2% 99.8%  
59 81% 98% Median
60 2% 17%  
61 14% 15%  
62 0.8% 1.4%  
63 0.6% 0.7%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.5% 99.9%  
57 0.4% 99.4%  
58 76% 99.0% Median
59 13% 23%  
60 4% 10%  
61 6% 6% Last Result
62 0.2% 0.2%  
63 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.1% 99.9%  
56 0.5% 99.9%  
57 3% 99.3% Last Result
58 6% 96%  
59 76% 91% Median
60 14% 15%  
61 1.3% 1.3%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0% 99.9%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.5% 99.8%  
56 2% 99.2%  
57 19% 97%  
58 76% 78% Median
59 2% 3%  
60 0.1% 0.2%  
61 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
62 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0% 99.9%  
53 0.7% 99.9%  
54 0.5% 99.2% Last Result
55 8% 98.7%  
56 2% 91%  
57 88% 89% Median
58 0.7% 0.8%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.1% 99.9%  
43 0.8% 99.8%  
44 2% 99.0%  
45 14% 97%  
46 77% 83% Median
47 0.1% 6% Last Result
48 6% 6%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.1% 99.9%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 0.5% 99.7%  
43 7% 99.2%  
44 89% 92% Median
45 3% 4%  
46 0.3% 0.4%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.3% 99.9%  
40 0.4% 99.6%  
41 2% 99.2%  
42 92% 97% Last Result, Median
43 2% 5%  
44 2% 3%  
45 0% 0.1%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.3% 99.9%  
31 3% 99.6%  
32 0.5% 97%  
33 20% 97% Last Result
34 0.7% 76%  
35 75% 76% Median
36 0% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.2% 100%  
30 0.2% 99.8%  
31 5% 99.7%  
32 87% 94% Median
33 2% 8%  
34 6% 6%  
35 0.1% 0.3%  
36 0.2% 0.2%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.2% 100%  
26 0.5% 99.8%  
27 3% 99.4%  
28 13% 97% Last Result
29 8% 84%  
30 76% 76% Median
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations