Opinion Poll by Peil.nl, 26 November 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 18.7% 17.8–19.6% 17.5–19.9% 17.3–20.1% 16.9–20.6%
Democraten 66 12.2% 10.7% 10.0–11.4% 9.8–11.6% 9.6–11.8% 9.3–12.2%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 10.0% 9.3–10.7% 9.1–10.9% 9.0–11.1% 8.7–11.5%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 10.0% 9.3–10.7% 9.1–10.9% 9.0–11.1% 8.7–11.5%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 9.3% 8.7–10.1% 8.5–10.3% 8.3–10.4% 8.0–10.8%
GroenLinks 9.1% 8.7% 8.0–9.4% 7.8–9.6% 7.7–9.7% 7.4–10.1%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 8.0% 7.4–8.7% 7.2–8.9% 7.1–9.0% 6.8–9.4%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 8.0% 7.4–8.7% 7.2–8.9% 7.1–9.0% 6.8–9.4%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 4.7% 4.2–5.2% 4.1–5.3% 4.0–5.5% 3.7–5.8%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.0% 3.6–4.5% 3.4–4.6% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.0%
50Plus 3.1% 4.0% 3.6–4.5% 3.4–4.6% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.0%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%
DENK 2.1% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 27 27–29 27–32 27–32 27–32
Democraten 66 19 16 15–16 15–16 15–17 15–19
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 14 14–15 14–15 14–17 14–18
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 16 14–16 14–16 14–16 13–17
Partij van de Arbeid 9 15 14–15 13–16 13–16 13–16
GroenLinks 14 13 12–13 12–13 11–13 11–14
Socialistische Partij 14 12 11–12 11–12 11–12 11–15
Forum voor Democratie 2 11 11–13 11–13 11–13 10–14
Partij voor de Dieren 5 7 6–7 6–7 6–7 6–8
ChristenUnie 5 7 6–7 5–7 5–7 5–7
50Plus 4 6 6 6–7 5–7 4–7
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–4
DENK 3 3 2–3 2–3 2–4 2–4

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0% 100%  
27 63% 99.9% Median
28 10% 37%  
29 18% 27%  
30 3% 9%  
31 0.5% 6%  
32 5% 5%  
33 0% 0% Last Result

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 16% 99.9%  
16 81% 84% Median
17 2% 4%  
18 0.9% 2%  
19 1.0% 1.0% Last Result
20 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 80% 99.9% Median
15 15% 19%  
16 1.4% 5%  
17 2% 3%  
18 1.1% 1.1%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 1.1% 100%  
14 13% 98.9%  
15 5% 86%  
16 78% 80% Median
17 2% 2%  
18 0.2% 0.2%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0.4% 100%  
13 8% 99.6%  
14 20% 92%  
15 64% 72% Median
16 8% 8%  
17 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 2% 99.9%  
12 16% 97%  
13 80% 81% Median
14 1.4% 1.5% Last Result
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 15% 99.9%  
12 83% 85% Median
13 1.1% 2%  
14 0.1% 0.9% Last Result
15 0.9% 0.9%  
16 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.1% 100%  
10 0.5% 99.9%  
11 65% 99.5% Median
12 19% 35%  
13 14% 15%  
14 2% 2%  
15 0.2% 0.2%  
16 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100% Last Result
6 12% 99.9%  
7 87% 88% Median
8 2% 2%  
9 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 6% 99.9% Last Result
6 17% 94%  
7 77% 77% Median
8 0.2% 0.2%  
9 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 1.3% 100% Last Result
5 3% 98.7%  
6 88% 96% Median
7 8% 8%  
8 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 12% 100%  
3 87% 88% Last Result, Median
4 1.0% 1.0%  
5 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.3% 100%  
2 18% 99.7%  
3 80% 82% Last Result, Median
4 3% 3%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 85 81 100% 80–81 80–81 79–82 79–83
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 90 79 100% 77–80 76–80 76–81 76–81
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie 80 79 83% 75–79 72–79 72–79 72–79
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 71 7% 71–75 71–76 71–76 71–76
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie 74 68 0.1% 68–73 68–74 68–74 68–74
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 76 66 0% 65–67 64–68 64–68 64–69
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 63 0% 63–66 63–67 63–67 62–67
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 66 67 0% 63–67 61–67 61–67 61–67
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 60 0% 60–63 60–65 60–65 60–65
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 71 59 0% 59–60 58–62 58–62 58–64
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 61 58 0% 58–60 58–61 58–61 57–62
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 57 0% 57–60 57–61 57–61 57–61
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid 72 57 0% 57–61 57–61 57–61 57–61
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 58 0% 58–59 58–59 58–59 56–61
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 54 0% 54–57 54–59 54–59 54–59
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 47 47 0% 45–47 43–47 43–47 43–48
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 43 0% 43–45 42–46 42–46 42–46
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 42 0% 42–44 42–45 42–45 41–45
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 38 0% 34–38 33–38 33–38 33–38
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 38 32 0% 30–32 30–32 30–33 29–34
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 31 0% 29–31 27–31 27–31 27–31

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0.1% 100% Majority
77 0.1% 99.9%  
78 0.2% 99.8%  
79 4% 99.6%  
80 9% 95%  
81 84% 87% Median
82 2% 3%  
83 0.9% 0.9%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 10% 100% Majority
77 0.3% 90%  
78 3% 90%  
79 64% 87% Median
80 20% 23%  
81 2% 3%  
82 0% 0.2%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 5% 100%  
73 3% 95%  
74 0.3% 91%  
75 8% 91%  
76 1.5% 83% Majority
77 17% 82%  
78 1.2% 64%  
79 63% 63% Median
80 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
81 0% 0.1%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 63% 99.9% Median
72 0.6% 37%  
73 8% 36%  
74 17% 28%  
75 4% 11%  
76 7% 7% Majority
77 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 63% 100% Median
69 0.2% 37%  
70 9% 37%  
71 16% 28%  
72 2% 12%  
73 4% 10%  
74 5% 6% Last Result
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0.1% Majority
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100%  
63 0.2% 99.9%  
64 8% 99.7%  
65 4% 92%  
66 64% 88% Median
67 16% 23%  
68 6% 8%  
69 2% 2%  
70 0.2% 0.2%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.2% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.8% Last Result
62 1.1% 99.7%  
63 64% 98.6% Median
64 3% 35%  
65 9% 31%  
66 16% 23%  
67 7% 7%  
68 0% 0.2%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 8% 100%  
62 2% 92%  
63 0.4% 90%  
64 10% 90%  
65 15% 80%  
66 2% 65% Last Result
67 63% 63% Median
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.2% 100% Last Result
59 0.1% 99.8%  
60 64% 99.7% Median
61 2% 36%  
62 11% 33%  
63 16% 23%  
64 0.2% 7%  
65 6% 7%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 8% 99.9%  
59 64% 92% Median
60 18% 28%  
61 2% 10%  
62 6% 8%  
63 1.2% 2%  
64 1.0% 1.0%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 1.2% 99.9%  
58 77% 98.7% Median
59 4% 21%  
60 10% 18%  
61 7% 8% Last Result
62 1.0% 1.0%  
63 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.2% 100%  
56 0.2% 99.8%  
57 64% 99.5% Last Result, Median
58 11% 36%  
59 0.6% 24%  
60 16% 24%  
61 7% 8%  
62 0.2% 0.3%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 71% 99.9% Median
58 0.6% 29%  
59 17% 28%  
60 1.0% 12%  
61 10% 11%  
62 0.1% 0.3%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.2% 100%  
56 0.5% 99.8%  
57 1.4% 99.2%  
58 75% 98% Median
59 21% 23%  
60 1.4% 2%  
61 0.5% 0.6% Last Result
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.2% 100%  
54 63% 99.8% Last Result, Median
55 9% 37%  
56 4% 28%  
57 17% 24%  
58 0.4% 7%  
59 6% 7%  
60 0.1% 0.2%  
61 0% 0.1%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 6% 99.9%  
44 1.5% 94%  
45 17% 92%  
46 9% 76%  
47 64% 66% Last Result, Median
48 2% 2%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.2% 100%  
42 8% 99.8%  
43 65% 92% Median
44 2% 27%  
45 17% 24%  
46 7% 7%  
47 0.3% 0.5%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.2% 100%  
41 1.3% 99.8%  
42 63% 98.5% Last Result, Median
43 19% 35%  
44 10% 16%  
45 6% 6%  
46 0% 0.1%  
47 0% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.2% 100%  
33 7% 99.8% Last Result
34 3% 92%  
35 1.2% 89%  
36 9% 88%  
37 16% 79%  
38 63% 63% Median
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 1.0% 100%  
30 14% 99.0%  
31 17% 85%  
32 64% 68% Median
33 2% 4%  
34 2% 2%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.2% 100%  
27 6% 99.8%  
28 1.5% 93% Last Result
29 4% 92%  
30 24% 88%  
31 65% 65% Median
32 0.1% 0.2%  
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations