Opinion Poll by Peil.nl, 10 December 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 17.3% 16.5–18.3% 16.2–18.5% 16.0–18.7% 15.6–19.2%
Democraten 66 12.2% 10.7% 10.0–11.4% 9.8–11.6% 9.6–11.8% 9.3–12.2%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 10.0% 9.3–10.7% 9.1–10.9% 9.0–11.1% 8.7–11.5%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 10.0% 9.3–10.7% 9.1–10.9% 9.0–11.1% 8.7–11.5%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 9.3% 8.7–10.1% 8.5–10.3% 8.3–10.4% 8.0–10.8%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 9.3% 8.7–10.1% 8.5–10.3% 8.3–10.4% 8.0–10.8%
GroenLinks 9.1% 8.7% 8.0–9.4% 7.8–9.6% 7.7–9.7% 7.4–10.1%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 8.7% 8.0–9.4% 7.8–9.6% 7.7–9.7% 7.4–10.1%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 4.7% 4.2–5.2% 4.1–5.3% 4.0–5.5% 3.7–5.8%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.0% 3.6–4.5% 3.4–4.6% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.0%
50Plus 3.1% 3.3% 2.9–3.8% 2.8–3.9% 2.7–4.0% 2.6–4.3%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%
DENK 2.1% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 28 28 25–28 24–28 24–28
Democraten 66 19 17 15–17 15–17 15–17 14–18
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 16 15–16 15–16 14–17 13–17
Partij van de Arbeid 9 15 15 15–16 13–16 13–18
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 14 13–14 13–14 13–15 12–16
Forum voor Democratie 2 13 13–15 13–15 13–15 12–16
GroenLinks 14 13 12–13 12–14 11–14 11–15
Socialistische Partij 14 13 12–14 12–14 12–14 11–14
Partij voor de Dieren 5 7 6–7 6–7 6–7 6–8
ChristenUnie 5 6 5–6 5–6 5–7 5–7
50Plus 4 4 4–6 4–6 4–6 4–6
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
DENK 3 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 4% 100%  
25 2% 96%  
26 0.6% 94%  
27 2% 93%  
28 91% 91% Median
29 0.1% 0.4%  
30 0.3% 0.3%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0% Last Result

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.2% 100%  
14 0.4% 99.8%  
15 23% 99.4%  
16 2% 76%  
17 73% 74% Median
18 0.8% 0.8%  
19 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
20 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.8% 100%  
14 2% 99.2%  
15 24% 97%  
16 69% 73% Median
17 3% 4%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 4% 100%  
14 0.7% 96%  
15 87% 96% Median
16 7% 9%  
17 0.4% 2%  
18 1.4% 1.4%  
19 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.7% 100%  
13 20% 99.3%  
14 76% 80% Median
15 4% 4%  
16 0.7% 0.7%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 2% 100%  
13 68% 98% Median
14 1.0% 30%  
15 28% 29%  
16 1.0% 1.1%  
17 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.2% 100%  
11 3% 99.8%  
12 20% 96%  
13 68% 77% Median
14 8% 9% Last Result
15 1.1% 1.2%  
16 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.5% 100%  
12 11% 99.5%  
13 68% 88% Median
14 21% 21% Last Result
15 0.1% 0.2%  
16 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.2% 100% Last Result
6 22% 99.8%  
7 76% 78% Median
8 2% 2%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 11% 100% Last Result
6 86% 89% Median
7 3% 3%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100%  
4 71% 99.9% Last Result, Median
5 8% 29%  
6 22% 22%  
7 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 72% 100% Median
3 28% 28% Last Result
4 0.3% 0.3%  
5 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 89% 100% Median
3 11% 11% Last Result
4 0.3% 0.3%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 85 80 99.4% 77–80 76–80 76–82 75–82
Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie 80 78 76% 75–78 75–78 75–78 75–79
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 90 78 73% 74–78 74–78 74–78 73–79
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 73 0.6% 73–74 71–75 71–75 71–76
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 74 71 0% 71 69–72 69–72 68–74
Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 66 65 0% 61–65 61–65 61–66 61–66
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 76 65 0% 62–65 61–65 60–66 60–66
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 61 0% 61–65 61–65 60–65 60–65
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 59 0% 59–62 58–62 58–62 58–62
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 61 60 0% 58–60 57–60 57–61 56–61
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 57 0% 57–59 57–59 55–60 55–60
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 71 59 0% 56–59 55–59 55–59 54–60
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 58 0% 56–58 54–58 54–59 53–60
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 61 57 0% 55–57 54–58 54–58 54–60
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 55 0% 55–56 54–56 53–57 53–58
Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 47 46 0% 43–46 43–47 43–47 43–48
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 43 0% 41–43 40–43 40–44 40–46
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 42 0% 41–42 39–42 38–42 38–44
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 33 35 0% 34–35 34–36 32–37 32–37
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 38 31 0% 28–31 28–31 28–31 28–32
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 28 29 0% 28–30 28–30 27–30 27–32

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.3% 100%  
75 0.3% 99.7%  
76 5% 99.4% Majority
77 23% 94%  
78 3% 71%  
79 0.9% 68%  
80 65% 67% Median
81 0.3% 3%  
82 2% 3%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Last Result

Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.2% 100%  
74 0.1% 99.8%  
75 23% 99.7%  
76 0.6% 76% Majority
77 5% 76%  
78 70% 71% Median
79 0.3% 0.5%  
80 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
81 0% 0.1%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.3% 99.9%  
73 1.0% 99.6%  
74 24% 98.6%  
75 2% 74%  
76 2% 73% Majority
77 3% 70%  
78 67% 68% Median
79 0.7% 1.1%  
80 0.3% 0.4%  
81 0% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 6% 99.8%  
72 2% 94%  
73 64% 92% Median
74 23% 28%  
75 4% 5%  
76 0.6% 0.6% Majority
77 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.7% 99.8%  
69 7% 99.1%  
70 0.6% 92%  
71 84% 91% Median
72 7% 7%  
73 0.2% 0.8%  
74 0.5% 0.5% Last Result
75 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0% 99.9%  
61 19% 99.9%  
62 0.2% 80%  
63 4% 80%  
64 3% 76%  
65 69% 73% Median
66 4% 5% Last Result
67 0.2% 0.3%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.2% 100%  
59 0.3% 99.8%  
60 4% 99.6%  
61 2% 96%  
62 21% 94%  
63 2% 73%  
64 4% 70%  
65 64% 66% Median
66 3% 3%  
67 0.1% 0.2%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 4% 99.9%  
61 67% 96% Last Result, Median
62 2% 29%  
63 3% 28%  
64 5% 24%  
65 19% 20%  
66 0.2% 0.2%  
67 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.2% 99.9%  
58 5% 99.7% Last Result
59 66% 95% Median
60 4% 29%  
61 5% 25%  
62 20% 20%  
63 0.4% 0.4%  
64 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.2% 100%  
55 0.1% 99.8%  
56 1.2% 99.6%  
57 7% 98%  
58 23% 91%  
59 1.3% 69%  
60 63% 67% Median
61 4% 4% Last Result
62 0.3% 0.3%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 4% 99.9%  
56 0.2% 96%  
57 70% 96% Last Result, Median
58 2% 26%  
59 21% 24%  
60 4% 4%  
61 0.2% 0.2%  
62 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.4% 99.8%  
55 5% 99.4%  
56 21% 94%  
57 4% 74%  
58 0.1% 70%  
59 69% 70% Median
60 0.9% 1.1%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.6% 99.9%  
54 4% 99.3%  
55 0.5% 95%  
56 23% 94%  
57 5% 72%  
58 63% 67% Median
59 3% 3%  
60 0.7% 0.7%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.2% 100%  
53 0.1% 99.8%  
54 5% 99.7%  
55 5% 95%  
56 20% 90%  
57 65% 70% Median
58 3% 5%  
59 0.7% 2%  
60 1.4% 1.4%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.2% 99.9%  
53 4% 99.8%  
54 3% 96% Last Result
55 68% 93% Median
56 20% 25%  
57 3% 4%  
58 0.8% 0.8%  
59 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.1% 99.9%  
43 20% 99.9%  
44 3% 80%  
45 4% 76%  
46 64% 73% Median
47 8% 9% Last Result
48 0.6% 0.7%  
49 0% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.2% 99.9%  
40 6% 99.7%  
41 4% 94%  
42 2% 90% Last Result
43 83% 88% Median
44 3% 5%  
45 0% 1.5%  
46 1.4% 1.4%  
47 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 4% 100%  
39 2% 96%  
40 2% 94%  
41 20% 93%  
42 72% 73% Median
43 0.7% 1.4%  
44 0.7% 0.7%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 3% 100%  
33 0.7% 97% Last Result
34 20% 96%  
35 70% 76% Median
36 2% 6%  
37 4% 5%  
38 0.4% 0.4%  
39 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 20% 99.9%  
29 2% 80%  
30 3% 78%  
31 73% 75% Median
32 2% 2%  
33 0.4% 0.4%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 4% 99.9%  
28 19% 96% Last Result
29 64% 76% Median
30 10% 12%  
31 0.6% 2%  
32 2% 2%  
33 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations