Opinion Poll by Peil.nl, 17 December 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 16.7% 15.8–17.6% 15.6–17.8% 15.4–18.0% 15.0–18.5%
Democraten 66 12.2% 11.3% 10.6–12.1% 10.4–12.3% 10.2–12.5% 9.9–12.9%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 10.0% 9.3–10.7% 9.1–10.9% 9.0–11.1% 8.7–11.5%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 10.0% 9.3–10.7% 9.1–10.9% 9.0–11.1% 8.7–11.5%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 9.3% 8.7–10.1% 8.5–10.3% 8.3–10.4% 8.0–10.8%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 9.3% 8.7–10.1% 8.5–10.3% 8.3–10.4% 8.0–10.8%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 9.3% 8.7–10.1% 8.5–10.3% 8.3–10.4% 8.0–10.8%
GroenLinks 9.1% 8.7% 8.0–9.4% 7.8–9.6% 7.7–9.7% 7.4–10.1%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 4.7% 4.2–5.2% 4.1–5.3% 4.0–5.5% 3.7–5.8%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 3.3% 2.9–3.8% 2.8–3.9% 2.7–4.0% 2.6–4.3%
50Plus 3.1% 3.3% 2.9–3.8% 2.8–3.9% 2.7–4.0% 2.6–4.3%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%
DENK 2.1% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 25 25–26 25–26 25–26 23–28
Democraten 66 19 19 16–19 15–19 15–19 14–20
Partij van de Arbeid 9 17 14–17 14–17 14–17 13–17
Forum voor Democratie 2 16 16 15–16 15–16 14–17
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 14 14 13–14 13–14 13–15
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 13 13–14 13–14 13–15 13–17
Socialistische Partij 14 13 13–14 13–14 13–14 13–15
GroenLinks 14 13 13–14 13–15 13–15 12–15
Partij voor de Dieren 5 7 7–8 7–8 7–8 6–9
ChristenUnie 5 4 4–5 4–5 4–6 4–6
50Plus 4 5 5 5 4–5 3–6
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 2 2 2–3 2–3 2–3
DENK 3 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–4

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 1.5% 100%  
24 0.9% 98.5%  
25 84% 98% Median
26 11% 13%  
27 1.1% 2%  
28 1.1% 1.1%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0% Last Result

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.5% 100%  
15 9% 99.5%  
16 1.0% 91%  
17 4% 90%  
18 0.9% 86%  
19 83% 85% Last Result, Median
20 1.3% 1.3%  
21 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 2% 100%  
14 9% 98%  
15 2% 89%  
16 4% 87%  
17 84% 84% Median
18 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0.4% 100%  
14 2% 99.6%  
15 6% 98%  
16 91% 92% Median
17 0.7% 0.7%  
18 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 9% 99.8%  
14 89% 91% Median
15 2% 2%  
16 0.2% 0.2%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 86% 99.9% Median
14 11% 14%  
15 1.4% 3%  
16 0.4% 1.4%  
17 0.9% 0.9%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.2% 100%  
12 0.2% 99.8%  
13 89% 99.7% Median
14 9% 11% Last Result
15 1.2% 2%  
16 0.3% 0.3%  
17 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 0.3% 99.9%  
12 1.5% 99.7%  
13 86% 98% Median
14 5% 13% Last Result
15 8% 8%  
16 0.2% 0.2%  
17 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100% Last Result
6 2% 99.9%  
7 88% 98% Median
8 9% 10%  
9 1.1% 1.2%  
10 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100%  
4 86% 99.9% Median
5 11% 14% Last Result
6 2% 3%  
7 0.3% 0.3%  
8 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.7% 100%  
4 4% 99.3% Last Result
5 94% 96% Median
6 2% 2%  
7 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 95% 100% Median
3 5% 5% Last Result
4 0.4% 0.4%  
5 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.3% 100%  
2 85% 99.7% Median
3 14% 15% Last Result
4 1.5% 1.5%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Socialistische Partij – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 80 79 99.4% 77–79 77–79 76–80 75–82
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 85 78 90% 76–78 74–78 74–78 74–80
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 90 74 5% 74–75 74–75 74–76 74–77
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 70 0% 70–71 70–71 70–72 68–75
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid 74 68 0% 68–69 68–69 68–70 66–72
Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 66 66 0% 63–66 63–66 63–66 62–67
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 61 0% 61–63 61–63 61–63 60–65
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 76 61 0% 61 60–62 60–62 60–64
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus 58 59 0% 59–60 59–61 58–61 57–62
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 61 61 0% 56–61 55–61 55–61 54–62
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 56 0% 56–58 56–58 56–58 55–61
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 71 57 0% 56–57 55–57 55–57 55–60
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 54 54 0% 54–55 54–56 54–56 53–58
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 61 55 0% 54–55 54–55 54–56 51–59
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid 72 52 0% 52–53 52–54 52–55 50–57
Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 47 49 0% 45–49 43–49 43–49 43–50
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 42 0% 40–42 40–42 39–42 37–44
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 38 0% 38–40 38–40 38–40 36–43
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 33 34 0% 33–34 33–34 32–36 32–37
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 38 32 0% 30–32 29–32 29–33 29–34
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 28 30 0% 28–30 28–30 28–30 26–31

Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Socialistische Partij – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.1% 100%  
75 0.4% 99.9%  
76 2% 99.4% Majority
77 10% 97%  
78 0.9% 88%  
79 84% 87% Median
80 2% 3% Last Result
81 0.6% 1.2%  
82 0.5% 0.6%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 8% 100%  
75 2% 92%  
76 3% 90% Majority
77 1.3% 87%  
78 85% 86% Median
79 0.6% 2%  
80 0.8% 1.0%  
81 0.1% 0.2%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.4% 99.9%  
74 86% 99.5% Median
75 9% 13%  
76 3% 5% Majority
77 1.0% 1.2%  
78 0.2% 0.2%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.5% 99.9%  
69 0.1% 99.4%  
70 85% 99.3% Median
71 11% 14%  
72 1.4% 3%  
73 1.1% 2%  
74 0.2% 0.9%  
75 0.7% 0.7%  
76 0% 0% Majority
77 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.6% 99.8%  
67 1.2% 99.2%  
68 86% 98% Median
69 9% 12%  
70 2% 3%  
71 0.6% 1.4%  
72 0.7% 0.8%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0% Last Result

Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 1.1% 99.9%  
63 10% 98.8%  
64 2% 89%  
65 0.7% 88%  
66 85% 87% Last Result, Median
67 1.2% 2%  
68 0.4% 0.5%  
69 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.3% 99.9%  
60 1.1% 99.5%  
61 87% 98% Last Result, Median
62 0.5% 12%  
63 9% 11%  
64 1.0% 2%  
65 0.9% 1.0%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.2% 99.9%  
60 9% 99.7%  
61 84% 90% Median
62 4% 6%  
63 1.0% 2%  
64 1.2% 1.4%  
65 0.1% 0.2%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 1.4% 99.8%  
58 1.0% 98% Last Result
59 86% 97% Median
60 2% 11%  
61 8% 10%  
62 1.2% 1.5%  
63 0.3% 0.3%  
64 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.9% 100%  
55 8% 99.1%  
56 2% 92%  
57 2% 90%  
58 2% 88%  
59 0.9% 86%  
60 0.5% 85%  
61 84% 84% Last Result, Median
62 0.5% 0.5%  
63 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.5% 99.8%  
56 85% 99.3% Median
57 4% 14% Last Result
58 8% 10%  
59 0.7% 2%  
60 0.5% 1.1%  
61 0.6% 0.6%  
62 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.2% 99.9%  
55 9% 99.7%  
56 3% 91%  
57 86% 88% Median
58 1.1% 2%  
59 0.4% 1.2%  
60 0.7% 0.8%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.3% 99.8%  
53 1.4% 99.5%  
54 86% 98% Last Result, Median
55 3% 12%  
56 8% 9%  
57 0.9% 2%  
58 0.7% 0.7%  
59 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.6% 100%  
52 1.5% 99.3%  
53 0.2% 98%  
54 9% 98%  
55 85% 89% Median
56 2% 4%  
57 0.2% 1.2%  
58 0.3% 1.0%  
59 0.7% 0.7%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.8% 100%  
51 0.3% 99.2%  
52 84% 98.9% Median
53 10% 15%  
54 2% 5%  
55 2% 3%  
56 0.8% 2%  
57 0.6% 0.8%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 9% 100%  
44 0.2% 91%  
45 2% 90%  
46 0.4% 88%  
47 1.0% 88% Last Result
48 2% 87%  
49 84% 84% Median
50 0.6% 0.6%  
51 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.8% 100%  
38 0.9% 99.2%  
39 2% 98%  
40 8% 97%  
41 0.9% 88%  
42 86% 87% Last Result, Median
43 0.2% 0.9%  
44 0.7% 0.7%  
45 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.7% 100%  
37 0.1% 99.3%  
38 84% 99.2% Median
39 2% 15%  
40 11% 13%  
41 0.6% 2%  
42 0.9% 2%  
43 0.7% 0.7%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 3% 99.9%  
33 8% 97% Last Result
34 85% 89% Median
35 1.4% 4%  
36 2% 3%  
37 0.8% 0.9%  
38 0.1% 0.2%  
39 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100%  
29 9% 99.9%  
30 3% 91%  
31 0.8% 88%  
32 85% 87% Median
33 0.9% 3%  
34 2% 2%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 1.4% 100%  
27 0.5% 98.6%  
28 9% 98% Last Result
29 0.6% 89%  
30 87% 89% Median
31 2% 2%  
32 0.3% 0.4%  
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations