Opinion Poll by Kantar Public, 25–28 January 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 18.7% 17.3–20.2% 16.9–20.7% 16.5–21.0% 15.9–21.8%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 12.0% 10.9–13.3% 10.5–13.7% 10.3–14.0% 9.7–14.7%
Democraten 66 12.2% 11.3% 10.2–12.6% 9.9–13.0% 9.6–13.3% 9.1–13.9%
GroenLinks 9.1% 10.6% 9.6–11.9% 9.3–12.3% 9.0–12.6% 8.5–13.2%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 10.0% 9.0–11.3% 8.7–11.6% 8.4–11.9% 7.9–12.5%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 9.3% 8.3–10.5% 8.0–10.9% 7.8–11.2% 7.3–11.8%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 8.0% 7.0–9.1% 6.8–9.4% 6.5–9.7% 6.1–10.2%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 7.4% 6.4–8.4% 6.2–8.7% 6.0–9.0% 5.6–9.6%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.0% 3.3–4.8% 3.1–5.1% 3.0–5.3% 2.7–5.7%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 2.7% 2.2–3.4% 2.0–3.6% 1.9–3.8% 1.7–4.2%
50Plus 3.1% 2.7% 2.2–3.4% 2.0–3.6% 1.9–3.8% 1.7–4.2%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.0% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8% 1.3–3.0% 1.1–3.3%
DENK 2.1% 1.3% 1.0–1.8% 0.9–2.0% 0.8–2.1% 0.7–2.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 28 27–32 27–32 25–32 23–33
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 18 15–21 14–21 14–21 14–22
Democraten 66 19 17 14–18 14–18 14–19 13–21
GroenLinks 14 16 15–18 15–19 14–19 13–19
Socialistische Partij 14 16 13–17 13–17 13–18 12–18
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 15 13–16 11–18 11–18 10–20
Forum voor Democratie 2 12 11–14 10–14 9–15 8–15
Partij van de Arbeid 9 10 9–13 9–14 9–14 8–14
ChristenUnie 5 6 5–7 4–7 4–8 4–9
Partij voor de Dieren 5 4 2–5 2–5 2–5 2–6
50Plus 4 4 3–5 3–5 2–5 2–6
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 3 1–4 1–4 1–4 1–5
DENK 3 1 1–3 1–3 0–3 0–3

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 2% 100%  
24 0.3% 98%  
25 0.5% 98%  
26 2% 97%  
27 10% 95%  
28 40% 85% Median
29 19% 46%  
30 3% 27%  
31 9% 24%  
32 14% 15%  
33 0.7% 0.9% Last Result
34 0.2% 0.2%  
35 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.2% 100%  
14 6% 99.8%  
15 14% 94%  
16 6% 79%  
17 20% 73%  
18 5% 53% Median
19 16% 48%  
20 13% 32% Last Result
21 18% 19%  
22 0.5% 1.0%  
23 0.4% 0.5%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 2% 100%  
14 18% 98%  
15 20% 80%  
16 5% 60%  
17 29% 55% Median
18 22% 27%  
19 3% 4% Last Result
20 0.8% 1.5%  
21 0.6% 0.7%  
22 0% 0.1%  
23 0% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.4% 100%  
13 1.0% 99.6%  
14 3% 98.6% Last Result
15 24% 96%  
16 32% 72% Median
17 15% 40%  
18 20% 25%  
19 5% 6%  
20 0.3% 0.5%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 1.0% 99.9%  
13 11% 98.9%  
14 7% 87% Last Result
15 28% 81%  
16 26% 52% Median
17 23% 26%  
18 2% 3%  
19 0.3% 0.4%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 2% 100%  
11 3% 98%  
12 0.5% 95%  
13 30% 94%  
14 8% 64%  
15 23% 56% Median
16 26% 33%  
17 0.1% 7%  
18 6% 7%  
19 0.1% 1.1% Last Result
20 1.0% 1.0%  
21 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 1.2% 100%  
9 2% 98.8%  
10 2% 97%  
11 16% 94%  
12 35% 79% Median
13 32% 44%  
14 9% 12%  
15 3% 3%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 1.3% 100%  
9 29% 98.7% Last Result
10 21% 69% Median
11 4% 48%  
12 34% 44%  
13 3% 10%  
14 7% 7%  
15 0.2% 0.2%  
16 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.2% 100%  
4 9% 99.8%  
5 39% 91% Last Result
6 19% 52% Median
7 30% 33%  
8 2% 3%  
9 0.5% 0.5%  
10 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 11% 100%  
3 26% 89%  
4 49% 63% Median
5 14% 15% Last Result
6 0.7% 0.8%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 4% 100%  
3 23% 96%  
4 58% 72% Last Result, Median
5 14% 14%  
6 0.5% 0.5%  
7 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 14% 100%  
2 28% 86%  
3 47% 58% Last Result, Median
4 9% 11%  
5 2% 2%  
6 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100%  
1 52% 95% Median
2 33% 43%  
3 10% 11% Last Result
4 0.4% 0.5%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 90 82 99.8% 77–87 77–87 77–87 77–87
Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 80 79 78% 75–85 75–85 75–85 74–86
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 77 63% 72–80 72–82 71–82 70–82
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 85 77 56% 70–82 70–82 70–82 69–85
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 74 74 33% 70–77 70–79 69–79 67–79
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 76 65 0% 61–72 61–72 61–72 59–72
Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 66 64 0% 58–70 58–70 58–70 58–70
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 62 0% 57–65 56–68 55–68 55–68
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 62 0% 58–65 57–67 57–67 56–67
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 71 59 0% 56–65 56–65 56–65 55–66
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 59 0% 56–64 54–64 54–64 53–65
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 58 0% 55–61 54–63 52–63 51–63
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 61 56 0% 52–59 51–60 51–60 50–64
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 56 0% 53–60 51–60 49–60 48–60
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 55 0% 50–59 50–59 48–60 47–62
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 43 0% 40–48 39–49 39–49 38–49
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 47 42 0% 37–46 37–46 37–47 36–48
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 40 0% 37–43 36–44 35–45 32–46
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 32 0% 27–35 26–35 26–36 26–36
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 38 31 0% 28–34 28–34 27–35 26–38
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 26 0% 22–28 22–30 22–30 21–30

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0% 99.9%  
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 0% 99.9%  
76 0.1% 99.8% Majority
77 17% 99.8%  
78 0.9% 83%  
79 14% 82%  
80 5% 68%  
81 12% 63%  
82 2% 51% Median
83 13% 49%  
84 11% 35%  
85 3% 24%  
86 10% 21%  
87 11% 11%  
88 0% 0.3%  
89 0.2% 0.2%  
90 0% 0% Last Result

Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.3% 100%  
72 0% 99.7%  
73 0.2% 99.7%  
74 0.1% 99.5%  
75 22% 99.4%  
76 3% 78% Majority
77 21% 75%  
78 3% 54%  
79 6% 52%  
80 1.3% 45% Last Result, Median
81 18% 44%  
82 0.8% 26%  
83 8% 26%  
84 8% 18%  
85 10% 10%  
86 0.5% 0.6%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 2% 99.9%  
71 0.9% 98%  
72 13% 97%  
73 18% 84%  
74 1.3% 66%  
75 1.3% 64%  
76 2% 63% Median, Majority
77 13% 61% Last Result
78 28% 48%  
79 7% 20%  
80 7% 14%  
81 0.1% 6%  
82 6% 6%  
83 0.3% 0.3%  
84 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 1.3% 99.9%  
70 15% 98.6%  
71 0.2% 84%  
72 13% 84%  
73 1.1% 71%  
74 2% 70%  
75 11% 67%  
76 2% 56% Median, Majority
77 9% 54%  
78 16% 45%  
79 2% 29%  
80 1.0% 27%  
81 12% 26%  
82 13% 14%  
83 0.1% 1.2%  
84 0.1% 1.2%  
85 1.0% 1.0% Last Result
86 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 1.2% 99.9%  
68 0.6% 98.7%  
69 1.5% 98%  
70 20% 97%  
71 12% 76%  
72 1.1% 64%  
73 0.9% 63% Median
74 14% 62% Last Result
75 16% 49%  
76 15% 33% Majority
77 12% 18%  
78 0.1% 6%  
79 6% 6%  
80 0.3% 0.3%  
81 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.2% 99.9%  
59 1.4% 99.8%  
60 0% 98%  
61 17% 98%  
62 0.5% 81%  
63 20% 81%  
64 6% 60%  
65 6% 54%  
66 12% 48% Median
67 2% 36%  
68 10% 34%  
69 11% 24%  
70 1.1% 13%  
71 0.8% 12%  
72 10% 11%  
73 0.1% 0.3%  
74 0.2% 0.2%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.3% 99.9%  
57 0.1% 99.6%  
58 16% 99.5%  
59 7% 84%  
60 5% 76%  
61 0.8% 71%  
62 8% 70%  
63 1.1% 63%  
64 12% 62% Median
65 18% 50%  
66 3% 32% Last Result
67 6% 29%  
68 11% 23%  
69 2% 12%  
70 10% 10%  
71 0.2% 0.2%  
72 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.2% 100%  
55 3% 99.7%  
56 2% 97%  
57 9% 94%  
58 0.9% 85%  
59 17% 85%  
60 3% 67%  
61 3% 65% Median
62 30% 61%  
63 10% 31%  
64 3% 21%  
65 12% 18%  
66 0% 6%  
67 0.1% 6%  
68 6% 6%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0% 99.9%  
55 0.1% 99.9%  
56 1.3% 99.8%  
57 4% 98.5%  
58 6% 94%  
59 2% 88%  
60 4% 86%  
61 26% 82% Last Result
62 17% 55% Median
63 10% 39%  
64 1.3% 28%  
65 19% 27%  
66 1.0% 7%  
67 6% 6%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.2% 99.8%  
55 2% 99.6%  
56 23% 98%  
57 3% 75%  
58 12% 72%  
59 11% 60%  
60 13% 49% Median
61 1.3% 36%  
62 14% 35%  
63 7% 20%  
64 2% 14%  
65 11% 12%  
66 1.0% 1.3%  
67 0% 0.3%  
68 0.2% 0.2%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 1.2% 99.8%  
54 4% 98.6%  
55 0.5% 95%  
56 8% 94%  
57 5% 87%  
58 17% 82% Last Result
59 17% 64% Median
60 18% 47%  
61 8% 29%  
62 2% 21%  
63 2% 19%  
64 16% 17%  
65 0.7% 0.7%  
66 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 1.4% 99.9%  
52 2% 98.5%  
53 0.6% 97%  
54 3% 96%  
55 8% 94%  
56 2% 86%  
57 25% 84% Last Result
58 21% 60% Median
59 7% 39%  
60 3% 31%  
61 21% 29%  
62 0.9% 7%  
63 6% 6%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 2% 100%  
51 4% 98%  
52 17% 94%  
53 0.8% 77%  
54 2% 76%  
55 23% 74% Median
56 2% 51%  
57 11% 48%  
58 13% 37%  
59 15% 24%  
60 7% 9%  
61 0.5% 2% Last Result
62 0.1% 1.3%  
63 0.3% 1.2%  
64 0.9% 0.9%  
65 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 1.3% 100%  
49 2% 98.7%  
50 0.3% 97%  
51 2% 97%  
52 1.3% 94%  
53 7% 93%  
54 28% 86% Last Result
55 3% 58% Median
56 23% 55%  
57 8% 32%  
58 6% 24%  
59 2% 19%  
60 16% 17%  
61 0.5% 0.5%  
62 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 2% 100%  
48 0.9% 98%  
49 1.2% 97%  
50 16% 96%  
51 13% 80%  
52 5% 67%  
53 3% 62% Median
54 6% 59%  
55 8% 52%  
56 20% 44%  
57 1.1% 24%  
58 12% 23%  
59 6% 11%  
60 3% 5%  
61 1.3% 2% Last Result
62 0.9% 0.9%  
63 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.2% 99.9%  
38 2% 99.7%  
39 5% 98%  
40 5% 93%  
41 17% 88%  
42 18% 72%  
43 8% 54% Median
44 20% 46%  
45 0.8% 26%  
46 6% 25%  
47 2% 19%  
48 11% 18%  
49 6% 6%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0% Last Result

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 1.3% 99.9%  
37 19% 98.6%  
38 0.4% 80%  
39 8% 79%  
40 4% 72%  
41 12% 67%  
42 14% 55% Median
43 13% 41%  
44 9% 29%  
45 5% 20%  
46 12% 15%  
47 0.4% 3% Last Result
48 2% 2%  
49 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 2% 100%  
33 0.1% 98%  
34 0.1% 98%  
35 1.4% 98%  
36 4% 97%  
37 20% 93%  
38 9% 73% Median
39 7% 64%  
40 18% 57%  
41 17% 39%  
42 11% 23% Last Result
43 5% 12%  
44 4% 7%  
45 2% 3%  
46 1.1% 1.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 7% 99.9%  
27 17% 93%  
28 2% 76%  
29 3% 74%  
30 6% 71%  
31 8% 65% Median
32 12% 57%  
33 29% 45% Last Result
34 0.4% 16%  
35 13% 15%  
36 2% 3%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 1.3% 99.9%  
27 3% 98.6%  
28 22% 96%  
29 12% 74%  
30 8% 62%  
31 6% 55%  
32 18% 48% Median
33 16% 30%  
34 12% 14%  
35 0.8% 3%  
36 0.3% 2%  
37 0.5% 1.5%  
38 1.0% 1.0% Last Result
39 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.8% 99.9%  
22 23% 99.1%  
23 6% 76%  
24 9% 70%  
25 5% 60% Median
26 13% 55%  
27 21% 42%  
28 15% 21% Last Result
29 0.3% 6%  
30 5% 6%  
31 0% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations