Opinion Poll by Ipsos for EenVandaag, 26–29 January 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 20.7% 19.1–22.3% 18.7–22.8% 18.3–23.2% 17.6–24.1%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 10.7% 9.5–12.0% 9.2–12.4% 8.9–12.7% 8.4–13.4%
Democraten 66 12.2% 10.7% 9.5–12.0% 9.2–12.4% 8.9–12.7% 8.4–13.4%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 10.0% 8.9–11.3% 8.6–11.6% 8.3–12.0% 7.8–12.6%
GroenLinks 9.1% 9.3% 8.2–10.6% 8.0–10.9% 7.7–11.2% 7.2–11.9%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 8.6% 7.6–9.9% 7.3–10.2% 7.1–10.5% 6.6–11.1%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 8.0% 7.0–9.2% 6.7–9.5% 6.5–9.8% 6.0–10.4%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 6.0% 5.1–7.0% 4.9–7.3% 4.7–7.6% 4.3–8.1%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 4.7% 4.0–5.7% 3.7–5.9% 3.6–6.2% 3.2–6.7%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 3.4% 2.7–4.2% 2.6–4.4% 2.4–4.6% 2.2–5.1%
50Plus 3.1% 3.4% 2.7–4.2% 2.6–4.4% 2.4–4.6% 2.2–5.1%
DENK 2.1% 2.7% 2.1–3.5% 2.0–3.7% 1.9–3.9% 1.6–4.3%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.0% 1.6–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 32 29–32 29–33 28–35 26–36
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 15 14–18 13–19 11–19 11–20
Democraten 66 19 14 14–17 14–19 14–19 13–19
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 16 14–17 13–17 12–18 11–18
GroenLinks 14 15 13–15 12–16 11–17 10–18
Socialistische Partij 14 14 12–14 11–15 10–15 9–16
Forum voor Democratie 2 14 11–14 11–15 10–15 9–15
Partij van de Arbeid 9 10 8–11 7–12 7–12 6–13
Partij voor de Dieren 5 6 6–8 5–9 5–9 5–10
ChristenUnie 5 5 3–5 3–6 3–6 2–7
50Plus 4 4 4–6 4–6 3–6 3–7
DENK 3 3 3–5 3–5 3–6 2–6
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 2 2–4 1–4 1–4 1–5

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 2% 100%  
27 0.5% 98%  
28 2% 98%  
29 15% 96%  
30 8% 81%  
31 1.3% 73%  
32 64% 71% Median
33 3% 7% Last Result
34 2% 5%  
35 1.3% 3%  
36 1.3% 2%  
37 0.1% 0.3%  
38 0% 0.2%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 4% 100%  
12 0.2% 96%  
13 6% 96%  
14 5% 90%  
15 54% 85% Median
16 3% 31%  
17 18% 28%  
18 5% 11%  
19 4% 6%  
20 0.9% 1.4% Last Result
21 0.1% 0.4%  
22 0.3% 0.4%  
23 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 0.1% 99.9%  
13 0.8% 99.8%  
14 58% 99.1% Median
15 12% 41%  
16 13% 29%  
17 7% 16%  
18 1.2% 9%  
19 8% 8% Last Result
20 0.4% 0.5%  
21 0% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.6% 100%  
12 2% 99.4%  
13 4% 97%  
14 3% 93%  
15 4% 90%  
16 73% 86% Median
17 10% 13%  
18 2% 3%  
19 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 1.0% 100%  
11 3% 99.0%  
12 4% 96%  
13 16% 92%  
14 16% 76% Last Result
15 53% 60% Median
16 4% 8%  
17 2% 4%  
18 1.2% 2%  
19 0.4% 0.4%  
20 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.5% 100%  
10 3% 99.5%  
11 6% 97%  
12 13% 91%  
13 15% 78%  
14 57% 64% Last Result, Median
15 5% 6%  
16 1.2% 2%  
17 0.1% 0.3%  
18 0.2% 0.2%  
19 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.1% 100%  
9 2% 99.9%  
10 2% 98%  
11 10% 96%  
12 14% 86%  
13 12% 72%  
14 52% 60% Median
15 8% 8%  
16 0.3% 0.4%  
17 0% 0.1%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 1.3% 100%  
7 5% 98.6%  
8 5% 93%  
9 23% 88% Last Result
10 53% 65% Median
11 6% 12%  
12 5% 6%  
13 0.5% 0.5%  
14 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 5% 100% Last Result
6 68% 95% Median
7 5% 27%  
8 14% 22%  
9 5% 8%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 1.3% 100%  
3 13% 98.7%  
4 13% 86%  
5 65% 73% Last Result, Median
6 7% 8%  
7 0.8% 1.1%  
8 0.3% 0.4%  
9 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 3% 100%  
4 61% 97% Last Result, Median
5 13% 36%  
6 22% 24%  
7 2% 2%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 0.9% 99.9%  
3 63% 99.0% Last Result, Median
4 25% 36%  
5 7% 11%  
6 5% 5%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 6% 100%  
2 60% 94% Median
3 18% 35% Last Result
4 16% 17%  
5 0.5% 0.8%  
6 0.3% 0.3%  
7 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 90 82 99.5% 78–83 77–84 77–85 76–87
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 79 87% 75–81 73–81 71–83 71–83
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 85 77 79% 73–79 72–80 71–81 70–83
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 74 77 72% 72–77 72–79 69–80 68–80
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 80 74 6% 69–74 69–76 68–77 66–77
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 76 67 0% 64–70 64–70 62–72 61–73
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 68 0% 64–70 62–70 61–70 57–71
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 63 0% 59–65 59–67 57–68 56–69
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 66 0% 62–66 60–67 58–67 54–69
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 71 62 0% 60–65 60–66 57–67 55–69
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 64 0% 60–64 59–64 56–64 53–67
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 66 60 0% 57–61 56–62 55–62 54–64
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 62 0% 57–62 56–62 53–62 50–64
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 61 56 0% 53–58 53–60 52–61 51–62
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 58 0% 54–58 51–60 50–60 47–64
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 48 0% 45–49 43–49 42–51 38–53
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 47 40 0% 39–44 38–44 37–44 34–45
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 42 0% 38–43 36–43 35–44 35–46
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 38 30 0% 30–33 29–35 29–35 26–37
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 31 0% 28–31 26–31 25–32 24–34
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 26 0% 23–27 21–28 20–28 20–30

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 99.9%  
75 0.4% 99.9%  
76 0.4% 99.5% Majority
77 8% 99.1%  
78 7% 91%  
79 5% 84%  
80 4% 79%  
81 7% 75%  
82 53% 68% Median
83 9% 15%  
84 2% 6%  
85 2% 4%  
86 1.3% 2%  
87 0.3% 0.5%  
88 0.1% 0.2%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
91 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 3% 99.9%  
72 0.2% 97%  
73 4% 97%  
74 0.8% 93%  
75 5% 92%  
76 7% 87% Majority
77 4% 80% Last Result
78 6% 76%  
79 55% 70% Median
80 2% 15%  
81 8% 13%  
82 0.8% 5%  
83 4% 4%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0% 0.1%  
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.3% 100%  
70 2% 99.6%  
71 1.2% 98%  
72 3% 97%  
73 9% 94%  
74 4% 85%  
75 2% 81%  
76 8% 79% Majority
77 52% 71% Median
78 6% 19%  
79 8% 14%  
80 2% 5%  
81 2% 3%  
82 0.2% 1.4%  
83 0.9% 1.2%  
84 0.3% 0.3%  
85 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.3% 100%  
68 2% 99.7%  
69 0.8% 98%  
70 0.6% 97%  
71 0.5% 96%  
72 13% 96%  
73 1.2% 83%  
74 5% 82% Last Result
75 5% 77%  
76 6% 72% Majority
77 61% 66% Median
78 0.2% 5%  
79 1.1% 5%  
80 4% 4%  
81 0.2% 0.3%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0% 99.8%  
66 0.9% 99.8%  
67 0.2% 98.9%  
68 2% 98.7%  
69 13% 96%  
70 2% 83%  
71 6% 81%  
72 3% 74%  
73 6% 71%  
74 57% 66% Median
75 3% 9%  
76 0.7% 6% Majority
77 5% 5%  
78 0.1% 0.4%  
79 0% 0.3%  
80 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
81 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 2% 99.9%  
62 0.5% 98%  
63 2% 97%  
64 13% 96%  
65 6% 83%  
66 1.1% 77%  
67 57% 76% Median
68 3% 19%  
69 2% 16%  
70 10% 14%  
71 2% 4%  
72 1.4% 3%  
73 0.9% 1.3%  
74 0.2% 0.4%  
75 0.2% 0.2%  
76 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 2% 100%  
58 0.1% 98%  
59 0.1% 98%  
60 0.3% 98%  
61 1.4% 98% Last Result
62 2% 96%  
63 2% 95%  
64 5% 93%  
65 4% 88%  
66 6% 85%  
67 2% 79%  
68 59% 77% Median
69 5% 18%  
70 12% 14%  
71 0.7% 1.0%  
72 0.1% 0.4%  
73 0.2% 0.3%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 2% 100%  
57 0.8% 98%  
58 1.0% 97%  
59 9% 96%  
60 5% 88%  
61 3% 82%  
62 9% 79%  
63 52% 70% Median
64 4% 18%  
65 6% 14%  
66 2% 8%  
67 1.2% 5%  
68 3% 4%  
69 0.4% 0.5%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 2% 100%  
55 0% 98%  
56 0.1% 98%  
57 0.2% 98%  
58 1.3% 98% Last Result
59 1.5% 97%  
60 1.0% 95%  
61 4% 94%  
62 0.9% 90%  
63 7% 89%  
64 8% 83%  
65 6% 75%  
66 63% 69% Median
67 4% 6%  
68 1.3% 2%  
69 0.1% 0.6%  
70 0.4% 0.4%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 2% 100%  
56 0.1% 98%  
57 0.7% 98%  
58 1.3% 97%  
59 0.6% 96%  
60 10% 95%  
61 7% 85%  
62 56% 78% Median
63 2% 22%  
64 5% 20%  
65 9% 15%  
66 3% 6%  
67 0.6% 3%  
68 1.0% 2%  
69 1.1% 1.1%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 2% 100%  
54 0.1% 98%  
55 0.4% 98%  
56 0.6% 98%  
57 1.1% 97% Last Result
58 0.9% 96%  
59 3% 95%  
60 9% 93%  
61 4% 83%  
62 8% 79%  
63 2% 71%  
64 67% 69% Median
65 2% 2%  
66 0.3% 0.9%  
67 0.4% 0.6%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.2% 99.9%  
53 0.1% 99.7%  
54 0.5% 99.6%  
55 2% 99.0%  
56 6% 97%  
57 9% 91%  
58 3% 82%  
59 3% 79%  
60 59% 76% Median
61 10% 17%  
62 6% 7%  
63 0.5% 2%  
64 0.7% 1.1%  
65 0.1% 0.3%  
66 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
67 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 2% 100%  
51 0.1% 98%  
52 0.1% 98%  
53 1.0% 98%  
54 0.9% 97% Last Result
55 1.1% 96%  
56 3% 95%  
57 3% 92%  
58 8% 89%  
59 10% 81%  
60 9% 71%  
61 8% 62%  
62 53% 54% Median
63 0.5% 1.1%  
64 0.4% 0.7%  
65 0.1% 0.2%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.2% 100%  
50 0.2% 99.8%  
51 1.2% 99.6%  
52 2% 98%  
53 10% 96%  
54 4% 87%  
55 5% 82%  
56 52% 77% Median
57 9% 25%  
58 9% 16%  
59 2% 7%  
60 3% 5%  
61 0.6% 3% Last Result
62 2% 2%  
63 0% 0.2%  
64 0.2% 0.2%  
65 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 2% 100%  
48 0% 98%  
49 0.1% 98%  
50 3% 98%  
51 2% 95%  
52 1.1% 93%  
53 2% 92%  
54 9% 91%  
55 6% 82%  
56 5% 76%  
57 8% 71%  
58 57% 63% Median
59 0.5% 7%  
60 4% 6%  
61 0.2% 2% Last Result
62 1.0% 2%  
63 0% 0.9%  
64 0.9% 0.9%  
65 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 2% 100%  
39 0% 98%  
40 0.2% 98%  
41 0.4% 98%  
42 0.5% 98%  
43 4% 97%  
44 1.0% 93%  
45 15% 92%  
46 4% 77%  
47 4% 73%  
48 57% 69% Median
49 8% 12%  
50 0.9% 4%  
51 1.4% 3%  
52 0.3% 1.5% Last Result
53 1.2% 1.2%  
54 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.6% 100%  
35 0.1% 99.4%  
36 0.6% 99.3%  
37 3% 98.7%  
38 5% 96%  
39 5% 90%  
40 60% 85% Median
41 3% 25%  
42 5% 23%  
43 6% 17%  
44 10% 12%  
45 2% 2%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.2% 100%  
35 3% 99.8%  
36 2% 97%  
37 3% 95%  
38 8% 92%  
39 6% 84%  
40 4% 78%  
41 13% 74%  
42 51% 61% Last Result, Median
43 7% 10%  
44 1.2% 4%  
45 1.2% 2%  
46 1.0% 1.2%  
47 0.2% 0.2%  
48 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.4% 100%  
26 0.1% 99.6%  
27 0.6% 99.5%  
28 0.8% 98.9%  
29 3% 98%  
30 59% 95% Median
31 10% 36%  
32 12% 26%  
33 7% 14%  
34 2% 8%  
35 4% 6%  
36 1.2% 2%  
37 0.7% 0.7%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 2% 100%  
25 3% 98%  
26 2% 96%  
27 3% 94%  
28 6% 91%  
29 10% 85%  
30 8% 75%  
31 63% 67% Median
32 2% 3%  
33 0.4% 1.4% Last Result
34 0.8% 0.9%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 3% 99.9%  
21 3% 97%  
22 4% 94%  
23 2% 90%  
24 5% 88%  
25 16% 83%  
26 55% 67% Median
27 2% 12%  
28 8% 10% Last Result
29 0.9% 1.5%  
30 0.5% 0.5%  
31 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations