Opinion Poll by Peil.nl, 29 January–4 February 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 18.0% 17.1–18.9% 16.9–19.2% 16.7–19.4% 16.2–19.9%
Democraten 66 12.2% 10.7% 10.0–11.4% 9.8–11.6% 9.6–11.8% 9.3–12.2%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 10.0% 9.3–10.7% 9.1–10.9% 9.0–11.1% 8.7–11.5%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 10.0% 9.3–10.7% 9.1–10.9% 9.0–11.1% 8.7–11.5%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 9.3% 8.7–10.1% 8.5–10.3% 8.3–10.4% 8.0–10.8%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 9.3% 8.7–10.1% 8.5–10.3% 8.3–10.4% 8.0–10.8%
GroenLinks 9.1% 8.7% 8.0–9.4% 7.8–9.6% 7.7–9.7% 7.4–10.1%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 8.7% 8.0–9.4% 7.8–9.6% 7.7–9.7% 7.4–10.1%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 4.7% 4.2–5.2% 4.1–5.3% 4.0–5.5% 3.7–5.8%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 3.3% 2.9–3.8% 2.8–3.9% 2.7–4.0% 2.6–4.3%
50Plus 3.1% 3.3% 2.9–3.8% 2.8–3.9% 2.7–4.0% 2.6–4.3%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%
DENK 2.1% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 28 27–28 25–28 25–28 25–30
Democraten 66 19 17 16–17 16–17 14–18 14–19
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 15 14–16 14–16 14–16 13–18
Forum voor Democratie 2 14 14–16 14–16 14–17 13–17
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 15 13–15 13–15 13–15 12–16
Socialistische Partij 14 13 13–14 13–15 13–15 12–16
GroenLinks 14 12 12–14 12–14 11–15 10–15
Partij van de Arbeid 9 14 12–14 11–14 11–16 11–16
Partij voor de Dieren 5 7 7 7–8 6–8 6–8
ChristenUnie 5 5 5 4–6 4–6 4–6
50Plus 4 5 4–5 4–5 4–6 4–6
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 3 2–4 2–4 2–4 2–4
DENK 3 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 6% 100%  
26 3% 94%  
27 23% 91%  
28 67% 68% Median
29 0.4% 2%  
30 1.3% 1.5%  
31 0.1% 0.2%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0% Last Result

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 3% 99.9%  
15 0.5% 97%  
16 15% 97%  
17 78% 82% Median
18 3% 4%  
19 1.1% 1.1% Last Result
20 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.8% 100%  
14 21% 99.2%  
15 66% 78% Median
16 11% 12%  
17 0.3% 1.4%  
18 1.1% 1.1%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0% Last Result

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0.5% 100%  
14 64% 99.5% Median
15 21% 35%  
16 11% 15%  
17 3% 3%  
18 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 2% 100%  
13 9% 98%  
14 20% 89%  
15 68% 70% Median
16 1.2% 1.2%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.7% 100%  
13 67% 99.3% Median
14 27% 32% Last Result
15 4% 6%  
16 2% 2%  
17 0% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 1.0% 100%  
11 2% 99.0%  
12 65% 97% Median
13 8% 32%  
14 21% 24% Last Result
15 3% 3%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 0% 100%  
11 7% 100%  
12 14% 93%  
13 8% 79%  
14 66% 71% Median
15 0.6% 5%  
16 4% 4%  
17 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100% Last Result
6 4% 99.9%  
7 88% 96% Median
8 8% 8%  
9 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.2% 100%  
4 9% 99.8%  
5 81% 90% Last Result, Median
6 9% 9%  
7 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 26% 100% Last Result
5 71% 74% Median
6 3% 3%  
7 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 15% 100%  
3 71% 85% Last Result, Median
4 14% 14%  
5 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 69% 99.9% Median
3 31% 31% Last Result
4 0.3% 0.3%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 85 79 74% 75–79 73–79 73–79 72–79
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Socialistische Partij – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 80 76 88% 75–76 74–77 74–78 72–80
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 90 77 89% 75–77 73–77 72–78 72–79
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 75 6% 73–75 73–76 72–76 70–78
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 74 72 0.4% 70–72 70–73 69–74 68–75
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 65 0% 62–65 62–65 62–66 61–67
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 76 65 0% 62–65 59–65 59–65 58–65
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus 58 62 0% 60–62 59–63 59–64 59–65
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 66 63 0% 61–63 60–63 59–63 58–65
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 60 0% 58–60 57–61 57–62 56–63
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 71 60 0% 56–60 55–60 55–60 54–60
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 54 57 0% 56–57 54–58 54–60 54–60
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 58 0% 55–58 55–58 54–59 52–59
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 61 59 0% 56–59 54–59 54–59 54–61
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 57 0% 53–57 51–57 51–57 51–57
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 47 46 0% 43–46 40–46 40–46 40–47
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 43 0% 40–43 39–43 39–43 38–44
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 42 0% 39–42 38–42 38–42 37–43
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 34 0% 31–34 30–34 30–34 30–35
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 38 32 0% 29–32 29–32 29–32 28–34
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 29 0% 26–29 24–29 24–30 24–30

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 1.2% 100%  
73 7% 98.8%  
74 0.3% 92%  
75 18% 92%  
76 6% 74% Majority
77 3% 67%  
78 3% 64%  
79 61% 61% Median
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Last Result

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Socialistische Partij – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 1.2% 99.8%  
73 0.3% 98.6%  
74 6% 98%  
75 4% 92%  
76 83% 88% Median, Majority
77 3% 6%  
78 2% 3%  
79 0.1% 0.8%  
80 0.7% 0.7% Last Result
81 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 4% 99.9%  
73 1.3% 96%  
74 2% 94%  
75 4% 93%  
76 13% 89% Majority
77 74% 76% Median
78 2% 3%  
79 1.0% 1.0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 2% 100%  
71 0% 98%  
72 1.4% 98%  
73 7% 97%  
74 21% 90%  
75 64% 69% Median
76 4% 6% Majority
77 0.3% 2% Last Result
78 2% 2%  
79 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 2% 100%  
69 0.8% 98%  
70 20% 97%  
71 1.3% 77%  
72 69% 76% Median
73 3% 7%  
74 3% 4% Last Result
75 1.1% 2%  
76 0.4% 0.4% Majority
77 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 1.2% 100% Last Result
62 12% 98.8%  
63 2% 86%  
64 15% 84%  
65 64% 69% Median
66 3% 4%  
67 2% 2%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 1.2% 100%  
59 4% 98.8%  
60 1.4% 95%  
61 0.1% 93%  
62 9% 93%  
63 16% 84%  
64 4% 68%  
65 64% 64% Median
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100% Last Result
59 6% 100%  
60 23% 94%  
61 3% 72%  
62 63% 69% Median
63 2% 6%  
64 4% 4%  
65 0.5% 0.5%  
66 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.2% 100%  
58 1.0% 99.8%  
59 1.5% 98.8%  
60 6% 97%  
61 5% 92%  
62 16% 87%  
63 69% 70% Median
64 0.7% 2%  
65 0.9% 0.9%  
66 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 2% 100%  
57 5% 98% Last Result
58 8% 92%  
59 3% 84%  
60 76% 82% Median
61 2% 6%  
62 3% 4%  
63 2% 2%  
64 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 1.2% 100%  
55 5% 98.8%  
56 5% 93%  
57 4% 88%  
58 15% 84%  
59 5% 68%  
60 63% 64% Median
61 0.4% 0.4%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 6% 100% Last Result
55 2% 94%  
56 22% 91%  
57 63% 69% Median
58 2% 6%  
59 0.1% 4%  
60 4% 4%  
61 0.4% 0.4%  
62 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 2% 100%  
53 0% 98%  
54 0.9% 98%  
55 19% 97%  
56 10% 78%  
57 4% 69%  
58 62% 65% Median
59 3% 3%  
60 0.3% 0.3%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 6% 99.9%  
55 2% 94%  
56 18% 92%  
57 10% 74%  
58 0.4% 64%  
59 62% 64% Median
60 1.4% 2%  
61 0.6% 0.6% Last Result
62 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 6% 100%  
52 2% 94%  
53 14% 91%  
54 4% 78%  
55 7% 74%  
56 2% 67%  
57 65% 65% Median
58 0.1% 0.3%  
59 0.2% 0.2%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.2% 100%  
40 5% 99.8%  
41 0.2% 95%  
42 3% 94%  
43 18% 92%  
44 2% 73%  
45 5% 72%  
46 66% 66% Median
47 0.7% 0.7% Last Result
48 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 2% 100%  
39 4% 98%  
40 6% 94%  
41 19% 88%  
42 4% 69%  
43 64% 66% Median
44 2% 2%  
45 0.1% 0.2%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 1.2% 100%  
38 7% 98.8%  
39 14% 92%  
40 4% 77%  
41 8% 74%  
42 64% 66% Last Result, Median
43 2% 2%  
44 0.1% 0.3%  
45 0.2% 0.2%  
46 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.4% 100%  
30 8% 99.6%  
31 15% 92%  
32 5% 76%  
33 2% 71% Last Result
34 68% 69% Median
35 2% 2%  
36 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.2% 100%  
28 1.3% 99.8%  
29 9% 98.5%  
30 7% 89%  
31 15% 82%  
32 65% 67% Median
33 2% 2%  
34 0.7% 0.7%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 5% 100%  
25 0.1% 95%  
26 19% 94%  
27 2% 75%  
28 3% 73% Last Result
29 66% 70% Median
30 4% 4%  
31 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations