Opinion Poll by I&O Research, 2–6 February 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 18.9% 18.0–19.7% 17.8–20.0% 17.6–20.2% 17.2–20.6%
Democraten 66 12.2% 11.3% 10.6–12.0% 10.4–12.2% 10.3–12.4% 10.0–12.7%
GroenLinks 9.1% 10.7% 10.0–11.4% 9.9–11.6% 9.7–11.8% 9.4–12.1%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 10.6% 9.9–11.3% 9.8–11.5% 9.6–11.6% 9.3–12.0%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 9.4% 8.8–10.0% 8.6–10.2% 8.4–10.4% 8.2–10.7%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 8.6% 8.0–9.2% 7.8–9.4% 7.7–9.6% 7.4–9.9%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 7.9% 7.3–8.5% 7.2–8.7% 7.0–8.8% 6.8–9.1%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 6.7% 6.2–7.3% 6.0–7.4% 5.9–7.6% 5.7–7.8%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.3% 3.9–4.8% 3.7–4.9% 3.7–5.0% 3.5–5.2%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 4.1% 3.7–4.5% 3.6–4.7% 3.5–4.8% 3.3–5.0%
50Plus 3.1% 3.2% 2.8–3.6% 2.7–3.7% 2.7–3.8% 2.5–4.0%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.4% 2.1–2.8% 2.0–2.9% 2.0–3.0% 1.8–3.2%
DENK 2.1% 1.6% 1.4–1.9% 1.3–2.0% 1.2–2.1% 1.1–2.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 28 27–29 27–30 27–30 26–32
Democraten 66 19 17 16–18 16–19 16–19 15–19
GroenLinks 14 16 15–17 14–17 14–17 14–18
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 18 16–18 15–18 15–18 14–18
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 14 14–15 13–16 12–16 12–16
Forum voor Democratie 2 13 12–14 12–15 12–15 11–15
Socialistische Partij 14 12 11–14 11–14 10–14 10–14
Partij van de Arbeid 9 11 9–11 9–11 9–11 8–12
ChristenUnie 5 6 6–7 6–7 5–7 5–8
Partij voor de Dieren 5 6 5–6 5–7 5–7 5–7
50Plus 4 4 4–5 4–5 4–5 3–6
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 3 3–4 3–4 2–4 2–4
DENK 3 2 2 2–3 1–3 1–3

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 2% 100%  
27 30% 98%  
28 44% 69% Median
29 17% 24%  
30 5% 7%  
31 1.1% 2%  
32 1.0% 1.3%  
33 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
34 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 2% 100%  
16 39% 98%  
17 39% 60% Median
18 12% 20%  
19 8% 8% Last Result
20 0.3% 0.3%  
21 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 7% 100% Last Result
15 10% 93%  
16 48% 82% Median
17 33% 35%  
18 1.2% 1.4%  
19 0.2% 0.2%  
20 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 1.4% 99.9%  
15 4% 98.5%  
16 24% 95%  
17 12% 71%  
18 59% 59% Median
19 0.2% 0.2%  
20 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 4% 99.9%  
13 3% 96%  
14 71% 93% Median
15 17% 22%  
16 5% 5%  
17 0.2% 0.2%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 1.3% 100%  
12 38% 98.7%  
13 46% 61% Median
14 10% 15%  
15 6% 6%  
16 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 3% 100%  
11 20% 97%  
12 35% 77% Median
13 7% 42%  
14 35% 35% Last Result
15 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 2% 100%  
9 13% 98% Last Result
10 11% 84%  
11 72% 74% Median
12 1.3% 1.3%  
13 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 4% 99.9% Last Result
6 53% 96% Median
7 43% 43%  
8 0.7% 0.7%  
9 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.2% 100%  
5 39% 99.8% Last Result
6 53% 61% Median
7 7% 7%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 2% 100%  
4 75% 98% Last Result, Median
5 22% 23%  
6 1.4% 2%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 3% 100%  
3 74% 97% Last Result, Median
4 23% 23%  
5 0.2% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 3% 100%  
2 89% 97% Median
3 8% 8% Last Result
4 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 90 82 100% 80–83 80–85 80–85 79–86
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 85 76 59% 75–78 75–79 75–79 74–80
Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Socialistische Partij – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 80 77 74% 75–78 74–78 73–79 72–80
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 76 61% 74–77 74–78 72–78 71–79
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 74 73 0.6% 71–74 70–74 70–74 68–76
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 76 65 0% 64–68 64–68 64–69 63–70
Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 66 64 0% 63–66 63–66 62–67 60–68
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 62 0% 60–65 60–66 60–66 60–67
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 71 58 0% 58–61 58–62 58–63 57–64
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 59 0% 57–62 57–62 57–63 57–64
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 58 0% 56–61 56–62 56–62 55–63
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 60 0% 58–60 56–61 56–61 56–62
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 61 55 0% 55–57 54–58 54–59 53–60
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 55 0% 53–57 53–58 53–58 52–59
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 53 0% 51–55 51–55 50–55 50–56
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 42 0% 41–44 41–44 40–45 40–46
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 47 42 0% 40–43 40–44 40–44 38–45
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 39 0% 37–40 37–40 36–41 36–42
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 38 31 0% 30–33 30–33 29–34 28–35
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 31 0% 29–32 29–33 29–33 27–34
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 25 0% 23–26 23–26 22–26 22–28

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0.5% 100%  
80 33% 99.5%  
81 8% 66% Median
82 39% 58%  
83 11% 19%  
84 3% 8%  
85 4% 5%  
86 0.9% 1.1%  
87 0.2% 0.2%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.3% 99.9%  
74 1.2% 99.7%  
75 39% 98%  
76 39% 59% Median, Majority
77 6% 21%  
78 5% 14%  
79 8% 9%  
80 0.8% 1.2%  
81 0.4% 0.4%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Last Result

Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Socialistische Partij – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.8% 100%  
73 4% 99.1%  
74 5% 96%  
75 17% 91%  
76 7% 74% Median, Majority
77 35% 67%  
78 29% 32%  
79 0.9% 3%  
80 2% 2% Last Result
81 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 2% 100%  
72 1.0% 98%  
73 1.4% 97%  
74 29% 96%  
75 6% 67%  
76 45% 61% Median, Majority
77 10% 16% Last Result
78 5% 6%  
79 0.4% 0.8%  
80 0.3% 0.4%  
81 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 2% 100%  
69 0.8% 98%  
70 4% 98%  
71 28% 94%  
72 13% 65%  
73 40% 53% Median
74 11% 13% Last Result
75 2% 2%  
76 0.3% 0.6% Majority
77 0.3% 0.3%  
78 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.5% 100%  
64 33% 99.5%  
65 31% 67% Median
66 11% 36%  
67 10% 25%  
68 12% 14%  
69 1.4% 3%  
70 1.1% 1.2%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100%  
60 0.9% 99.9%  
61 1.0% 99.1%  
62 3% 98%  
63 41% 95%  
64 21% 54% Median
65 6% 33%  
66 25% 28% Last Result
67 2% 3%  
68 1.4% 1.4%  
69 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 26% 100%  
61 2% 74% Last Result
62 34% 72% Median
63 10% 38%  
64 9% 29%  
65 10% 19%  
66 8% 9%  
67 0.8% 1.0%  
68 0.2% 0.3%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.7% 99.9%  
58 57% 99.2%  
59 10% 42% Median
60 10% 32%  
61 17% 22%  
62 2% 5%  
63 3% 4%  
64 0.9% 1.0%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 26% 99.9%  
58 4% 74% Last Result
59 35% 70% Median
60 9% 35%  
61 15% 27%  
62 9% 12%  
63 2% 3%  
64 0.5% 0.7%  
65 0.2% 0.2%  
66 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 1.2% 100%  
56 26% 98.8%  
57 1.5% 73% Last Result
58 38% 72% Median
59 8% 33%  
60 14% 25%  
61 6% 12%  
62 5% 5%  
63 0.3% 0.5%  
64 0.2% 0.2%  
65 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.3% 100%  
56 5% 99.7%  
57 3% 95%  
58 3% 92%  
59 30% 89%  
60 51% 58% Median
61 5% 7%  
62 2% 2%  
63 0.4% 0.5%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 1.4% 99.8%  
54 7% 98%  
55 63% 92%  
56 12% 28% Median
57 9% 17%  
58 5% 8%  
59 2% 3%  
60 0.6% 0.6%  
61 0% 0.1% Last Result
62 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 1.3% 100%  
53 26% 98.7%  
54 5% 73% Last Result
55 34% 68% Median
56 18% 34%  
57 9% 16%  
58 5% 7%  
59 2% 2%  
60 0.2% 0.3%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 3% 99.9%  
51 10% 97%  
52 30% 88%  
53 41% 58% Median
54 3% 17%  
55 12% 14%  
56 1.2% 1.5%  
57 0.3% 0.3%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 4% 100%  
41 28% 96%  
42 36% 68% Median
43 12% 31%  
44 15% 19%  
45 3% 4%  
46 1.2% 1.3%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0% Last Result

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.3% 100%  
38 0.8% 99.7%  
39 1.1% 98.9%  
40 8% 98%  
41 38% 89%  
42 37% 52% Median
43 9% 15%  
44 4% 6%  
45 2% 2%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 3% 100%  
37 11% 97%  
38 30% 86%  
39 41% 56% Median
40 11% 15%  
41 3% 4%  
42 1.4% 1.4% Last Result
43 0% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.7% 100%  
29 2% 99.2%  
30 34% 97%  
31 37% 63% Median
32 13% 26%  
33 10% 13%  
34 2% 3%  
35 0.9% 0.9%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.5% 100%  
28 2% 99.4%  
29 8% 98%  
30 12% 90%  
31 38% 78% Median
32 31% 40%  
33 8% 9% Last Result
34 0.6% 0.6%  
35 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.2% 100%  
22 4% 99.8%  
23 10% 96%  
24 11% 86%  
25 61% 75% Median
26 12% 14%  
27 2% 2%  
28 0.6% 0.6% Last Result
29 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations