Opinion Poll by Peil.nl, 5–11 February 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 18.0% 17.1–18.9% 16.9–19.2% 16.7–19.4% 16.2–19.9%
Democraten 66 12.2% 10.7% 10.0–11.4% 9.8–11.6% 9.6–11.8% 9.3–12.2%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 10.0% 9.3–10.7% 9.1–10.9% 9.0–11.1% 8.7–11.5%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 10.0% 9.3–10.7% 9.1–10.9% 9.0–11.1% 8.7–11.5%
GroenLinks 9.1% 9.3% 8.7–10.1% 8.5–10.3% 8.3–10.4% 8.0–10.8%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 9.3% 8.7–10.1% 8.5–10.3% 8.3–10.4% 8.0–10.8%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 9.3% 8.7–10.1% 8.5–10.3% 8.3–10.4% 8.0–10.8%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 8.0% 7.4–8.7% 7.2–8.9% 7.1–9.0% 6.8–9.4%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 4.7% 4.2–5.2% 4.1–5.3% 4.0–5.5% 3.7–5.8%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 3.3% 2.9–3.8% 2.8–3.9% 2.7–4.0% 2.6–4.3%
50Plus 3.1% 3.3% 2.9–3.8% 2.8–3.9% 2.7–4.0% 2.6–4.3%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%
DENK 2.1% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 26 26–28 26–30 26–30 25–30
Democraten 66 19 17 15–17 15–17 15–17 15–18
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 14 14–16 14–16 14–16 13–16
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 16 14–16 14–16 14–16 14–16
GroenLinks 14 16 14–16 14–16 13–16 13–16
Socialistische Partij 14 14 14 14–15 14–16 12–16
Forum voor Democratie 2 13 13–15 13–15 13–15 13–16
Partij van de Arbeid 9 12 11–13 11–13 11–13 10–13
Partij voor de Dieren 5 7 7 5–8 5–9 5–9
ChristenUnie 5 4 4–6 4–6 4–6 4–6
50Plus 4 5 5 5 4–5 4–6
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–4
DENK 3 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–4

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.3% 100%  
25 0.9% 99.7%  
26 57% 98.9% Median
27 30% 42%  
28 2% 11%  
29 3% 9%  
30 7% 7%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0% Last Result

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.3% 100%  
15 36% 99.7%  
16 5% 64%  
17 57% 58% Median
18 0.9% 1.1%  
19 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
20 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 1.1% 100%  
14 58% 98.9% Median
15 13% 41%  
16 28% 28%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 0.3% 99.9%  
14 36% 99.6%  
15 6% 64%  
16 58% 58% Median
17 0.2% 0.2%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.4% 100%  
13 2% 99.6%  
14 10% 97% Last Result
15 25% 88%  
16 63% 63% Median
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 2% 100%  
13 0.8% 98%  
14 88% 98% Last Result, Median
15 7% 10%  
16 3% 3%  
17 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0.1% 100%  
13 86% 99.9% Median
14 3% 14%  
15 9% 12%  
16 2% 2%  
17 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 1.4% 100%  
11 10% 98.6%  
12 61% 89% Median
13 27% 27%  
14 0.4% 0.4%  
15 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 5% 100% Last Result
6 1.5% 95%  
7 85% 93% Median
8 6% 9%  
9 3% 3%  
10 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.3% 100%  
4 59% 99.7% Median
5 14% 41% Last Result
6 27% 27%  
7 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100%  
4 4% 99.9% Last Result
5 94% 96% Median
6 2% 2%  
7 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 36% 99.9%  
3 63% 64% Last Result, Median
4 1.0% 1.0%  
5 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 10% 100%  
3 88% 90% Last Result, Median
4 2% 2%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 90 79 95% 77–79 76–80 75–80 75–81
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 80 79 92% 76–79 75–79 73–79 73–79
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 85 75 5% 75 73–76 72–77 72–79
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 72 6% 72–74 72–76 72–76 71–78
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie 74 69 0.1% 69–72 69–74 69–74 68–75
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 63 0% 61–65 61–66 61–66 61–68
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 76 63 0% 62–64 62–64 61–65 61–67
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 66 65 0% 61–65 60–65 59–65 59–65
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 60 0% 59–62 59–64 59–64 59–65
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 58 0% 56–59 56–61 56–61 56–64
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 71 59 0% 56–59 56–59 56–60 56–63
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid 72 56 0% 56–58 56–59 56–59 55–60
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 55 0% 54–57 54–59 54–59 54–61
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 61 55 0% 55–56 53–56 53–57 53–60
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 54 0% 54–55 52–55 52–56 52–57
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 47 45 0% 41–45 40–45 40–45 40–45
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 42 0% 41–43 41–44 41–44 40–45
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 38 0% 38–40 38–41 38–42 37–42
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 32 0% 30–33 30–33 30–33 30–34
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 38 33 0% 29–33 29–33 29–33 29–33
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 28 0% 25–28 25–28 25–28 24–29

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.1% 100%  
75 5% 99.9%  
76 3% 95% Majority
77 26% 92%  
78 2% 66%  
79 57% 64% Median
80 5% 7%  
81 1.4% 1.4%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 4% 100%  
74 0.1% 96%  
75 3% 96%  
76 8% 92% Majority
77 27% 84%  
78 0.1% 57%  
79 56% 57% Median
80 0.4% 0.4% Last Result
81 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 3% 100%  
73 2% 97%  
74 3% 95%  
75 86% 92% Median
76 3% 5% Majority
77 2% 3%  
78 0.2% 1.0%  
79 0.8% 0.8%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.5% 100%  
72 82% 99.4% Median
73 2% 17%  
74 6% 15%  
75 3% 9%  
76 6% 6% Majority
77 0.2% 0.9% Last Result
78 0.7% 0.7%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.5% 100%  
69 56% 99.5% Median
70 27% 43%  
71 6% 16%  
72 1.0% 10%  
73 3% 9%  
74 5% 6% Last Result
75 0.7% 0.8%  
76 0% 0.1% Majority
77 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.3% 100%  
61 26% 99.7% Last Result
62 0.6% 74%  
63 59% 73% Median
64 5% 15%  
65 3% 10%  
66 6% 7%  
67 0.1% 0.8%  
68 0.7% 0.7%  
69 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100%  
60 0.3% 99.9%  
61 5% 99.7%  
62 26% 95%  
63 58% 69% Median
64 8% 11%  
65 2% 3%  
66 0.2% 1.0%  
67 0.7% 0.8%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 4% 99.9%  
60 2% 96%  
61 9% 95%  
62 3% 86%  
63 25% 83%  
64 1.2% 58%  
65 56% 57% Median
66 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
67 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.3% 100%  
58 0.1% 99.7% Last Result
59 27% 99.6%  
60 58% 73% Median
61 3% 15%  
62 2% 11%  
63 3% 9%  
64 6% 7%  
65 0.7% 0.7%  
66 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.3% 100%  
56 24% 99.7%  
57 2% 75% Last Result
58 57% 73% Median
59 6% 16%  
60 3% 9%  
61 5% 6%  
62 0.1% 0.8%  
63 0.1% 0.7%  
64 0.6% 0.6%  
65 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.5% 100%  
56 28% 99.5%  
57 2% 71%  
58 4% 69%  
59 62% 65% Median
60 1.3% 3%  
61 1.4% 2%  
62 0.1% 0.8%  
63 0.7% 0.7%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100%  
55 0.5% 99.9%  
56 61% 99.4% Median
57 28% 39%  
58 4% 11%  
59 6% 7%  
60 0.5% 0.6%  
61 0% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.3% 100%  
53 0.1% 99.7%  
54 25% 99.6% Last Result
55 58% 74% Median
56 5% 16%  
57 2% 11%  
58 3% 9%  
59 5% 6%  
60 0% 0.7%  
61 0.7% 0.7%  
62 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0% 100%  
53 5% 99.9%  
54 3% 95%  
55 81% 91% Median
56 6% 10%  
57 3% 5%  
58 0.8% 2%  
59 0.5% 1.2%  
60 0.7% 0.7%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 6% 100%  
53 1.2% 94%  
54 82% 93% Median
55 6% 10%  
56 3% 5%  
57 2% 2%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 10% 100%  
41 0.1% 90%  
42 27% 90%  
43 4% 63%  
44 1.1% 59%  
45 57% 58% Median
46 0.3% 0.3%  
47 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.3% 100%  
40 0.9% 99.7%  
41 28% 98.8%  
42 60% 70% Median
43 2% 10%  
44 7% 8%  
45 2% 2%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 2% 100%  
38 61% 98% Median
39 2% 37%  
40 26% 35%  
41 6% 9%  
42 2% 3% Last Result
43 0.4% 0.4%  
44 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.2% 100%  
29 0% 99.7%  
30 10% 99.7%  
31 2% 90%  
32 61% 87% Median
33 25% 26% Last Result
34 0.7% 0.9%  
35 0.1% 0.2%  
36 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.3% 100%  
29 34% 99.7%  
30 4% 66%  
31 3% 62%  
32 2% 59%  
33 57% 57% Median
34 0.1% 0.2%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 1.3% 100%  
25 9% 98.7%  
26 0.8% 90%  
27 31% 89%  
28 57% 58% Last Result, Median
29 0.8% 0.8%  
30 0% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations