Opinion Poll by Peil.nl, 12–18 February 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 18.0% 17.1–18.9% 16.9–19.2% 16.7–19.4% 16.2–19.9%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 10.0% 9.3–10.7% 9.1–10.9% 9.0–11.1% 8.7–11.5%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 10.0% 9.3–10.7% 9.1–10.9% 9.0–11.1% 8.7–11.5%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 9.3% 8.7–10.1% 8.5–10.3% 8.3–10.4% 8.0–10.8%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 9.3% 8.7–10.1% 8.5–10.3% 8.3–10.4% 8.0–10.8%
Democraten 66 12.2% 9.3% 8.7–10.1% 8.5–10.3% 8.3–10.4% 8.0–10.8%
GroenLinks 9.1% 9.3% 8.7–10.1% 8.5–10.3% 8.3–10.4% 8.0–10.8%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 8.0% 7.4–8.7% 7.2–8.9% 7.1–9.0% 6.8–9.4%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 4.7% 4.2–5.2% 4.1–5.3% 4.0–5.5% 3.7–5.8%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.0% 3.6–4.5% 3.4–4.6% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.0%
50Plus 3.1% 4.0% 3.6–4.5% 3.4–4.6% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.0%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%
DENK 2.1% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 27 27–29 27–29 27–29 26–29
Socialistische Partij 14 15 15 15 15 15–16
Forum voor Democratie 2 15 15–16 15–16 15–16 14–16
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 13 13 13 13–15 13–15
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 14 13–14 13–14 13–15 13–16
Democraten 66 19 15 14–15 14–15 14–15 13–15
GroenLinks 14 15 14–15 14–15 14–15 14–15
Partij van de Arbeid 9 13 12–13 12–13 11–13 11–13
Partij voor de Dieren 5 7 7–8 7–8 6–8 6–8
ChristenUnie 5 6 6 6 5–6 5–6
50Plus 4 6 6 6 6 6–7
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 2 2 2 2 2–3
DENK 3 2 2 2 2–3 2–3

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.6% 100%  
27 84% 99.4% Median
28 0.1% 15%  
29 15% 15%  
30 0% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0% Last Result

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100% Last Result
15 97% 99.8% Median
16 2% 2%  
17 0.2% 0.2%  
18 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0.1% 100%  
14 2% 99.9%  
15 81% 98% Median
16 17% 17%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 96% 100% Median
14 0.4% 4%  
15 4% 4%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 15% 100%  
14 81% 85% Median
15 2% 4%  
16 2% 2%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.2% 100%  
13 2% 99.8%  
14 17% 98%  
15 81% 81% Median
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 17% 99.8% Last Result
15 83% 83% Median
16 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 0.2% 100%  
11 4% 99.8%  
12 15% 96%  
13 81% 81% Median
14 0.2% 0.2%  
15 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0% 100% Last Result
6 4% 100%  
7 81% 96% Median
8 15% 15%  
9 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 4% 100% Last Result
6 96% 96% Median
7 0.3% 0.3%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100% Last Result
5 0.2% 99.9%  
6 98% 99.7% Median
7 2% 2%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 98% 100% Median
3 2% 2% Last Result
4 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 96% 100% Median
3 4% 4% Last Result
4 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Socialistische Partij – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 80 78 81% 74–78 74–78 74–78 74–78
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 90 77 97% 76–77 76–77 75–77 74–77
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 85 75 0.1% 74–75 74–75 72–75 72–75
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 71 2% 71–73 71–73 71–74 71–76
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid 74 69 0% 69–71 69–71 69–71 69–74
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 64 0% 64–66 64–66 64–66 64–67
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus 58 62 0% 62–64 62–64 62–64 62–65
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 66 63 0% 59–63 59–63 59–63 59–63
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 62 0% 62 62 61–62 60–62
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 58 0% 58–60 58–60 58–60 58–61
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 54 56 0% 56–58 56–58 56–58 56–59
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid 72 54 0% 54–55 54–55 54–57 54–58
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 56 0% 56 56 56 55–56
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 61 55 0% 55 55 52–55 51–55
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 54 0% 54 54 54 53–54
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 41 0% 41–42 41–42 41–42 41–43
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 47 42 0% 39–42 39–42 39–42 39–42
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 40 0% 40–41 40–41 38–41 38–41
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 33 0% 31–33 31–33 31–33 31–33
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 29 0% 27–29 27–29 27–29 27–29
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 27 0% 25–27 25–27 25–27 25–27

Socialistische Partij – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0% 99.9%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 15% 99.8%  
75 3% 85%  
76 0.5% 81% Majority
77 0% 81%  
78 81% 81% Median
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0% 100%  
74 0.5% 99.9%  
75 2% 99.5%  
76 17% 97% Majority
77 81% 81% Median
78 0% 0.2%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.4% 100%  
72 4% 99.6%  
73 0% 96%  
74 15% 96%  
75 81% 81% Median
76 0% 0.1% Majority
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.2% 100%  
71 81% 99.8% Median
72 0.2% 19%  
73 15% 19%  
74 2% 4%  
75 0.1% 2%  
76 2% 2% Majority
77 0% 0.1% Last Result
78 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.2% 100%  
68 0% 99.8%  
69 81% 99.8% Median
70 0% 19%  
71 17% 19%  
72 0.2% 2%  
73 0.2% 2%  
74 2% 2% Last Result
75 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0% 100%  
63 0.1% 100%  
64 81% 99.9% Median
65 0.2% 19%  
66 17% 19%  
67 2% 2%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100% Last Result
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0.4% 99.9%  
62 81% 99.5% Median
63 2% 19%  
64 15% 17%  
65 2% 2%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0% 99.9%  
57 0% 99.9%  
58 0.1% 99.9%  
59 17% 99.8%  
60 2% 83%  
61 0.2% 81%  
62 0.2% 81%  
63 81% 81% Median
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.5% 100%  
61 4% 99.4%  
62 96% 96% Median
63 0% 0.2%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.3% 100% Last Result
58 81% 99.7% Median
59 2% 19%  
60 15% 17%  
61 2% 2%  
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.2% 100% Last Result
55 0.1% 99.7%  
56 83% 99.7% Median
57 0.1% 17%  
58 15% 17%  
59 2% 2%  
60 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.2% 100%  
53 0.2% 99.8%  
54 81% 99.6% Median
55 15% 19%  
56 0.2% 4%  
57 2% 4%  
58 2% 2%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.2% 100%  
54 0.2% 99.8%  
55 0.2% 99.6%  
56 99.1% 99.3% Median
57 0.1% 0.2%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 2% 100%  
52 2% 98%  
53 0.2% 96%  
54 0% 96%  
55 96% 96% Median
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.2% 100%  
51 0% 99.8%  
52 0.2% 99.7%  
53 2% 99.5%  
54 97% 98% Median
55 0.1% 0.3%  
56 0.2% 0.3%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.2% 100%  
40 0.2% 99.8%  
41 81% 99.6% Median
42 17% 19%  
43 2% 2%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.2% 99.9%  
39 15% 99.7%  
40 4% 85%  
41 0.2% 81%  
42 81% 81% Median
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.3% 100%  
38 4% 99.7%  
39 0.1% 96%  
40 81% 96% Median
41 15% 15%  
42 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
43 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.1% 99.9%  
31 17% 99.8%  
32 2% 83%  
33 81% 81% Last Result, Median
34 0.1% 0.3%  
35 0% 0.2%  
36 0.2% 0.2%  
37 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 15% 100%  
28 0.2% 85%  
29 85% 85% Median
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.3% 100%  
25 15% 99.7%  
26 2% 85%  
27 82% 83% Median
28 0% 0.2% Last Result
29 0.1% 0.2%  
30 0.2% 0.2%  
31 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations