Opinion Poll by Kantar Public, 27 February–4 March 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 20.0% 18.5–21.6% 18.0–22.1% 17.7–22.5% 17.0–23.3%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 10.6% 9.5–11.9% 9.2–12.3% 8.9–12.6% 8.4–13.3%
GroenLinks 9.1% 10.6% 9.5–11.9% 9.2–12.3% 8.9–12.6% 8.4–13.3%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 10.6% 9.5–11.9% 9.2–12.3% 8.9–12.6% 8.4–13.3%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 10.0% 8.9–11.3% 8.6–11.7% 8.4–12.0% 7.8–12.7%
Democraten 66 12.2% 10.0% 8.9–11.3% 8.6–11.7% 8.4–12.0% 7.8–12.7%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 6.0% 5.2–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.7–7.6% 4.4–8.2%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 6.0% 5.2–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.7–7.6% 4.4–8.2%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 3.0–5.4% 2.7–5.9%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 3.0–5.4% 2.7–5.9%
50Plus 3.1% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 3.0–5.4% 2.7–5.9%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.0% 1.6–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.4%
DENK 2.1% 2.0% 1.6–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 32 30–32 28–32 27–33 27–35
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 17 16–19 14–19 14–19 13–19
GroenLinks 14 17 17 15–18 14–19 13–19
Socialistische Partij 14 16 16–17 15–17 14–18 13–20
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 14 14–18 14–18 13–18 12–19
Democraten 66 19 18 15–18 14–18 13–18 12–19
Partij van de Arbeid 9 7 7–9 7–10 7–11 7–12
Forum voor Democratie 2 8 7–9 7–10 7–11 7–12
ChristenUnie 5 5 5–6 4–7 4–7 3–8
Partij voor de Dieren 5 6 4–6 4–7 4–7 4–8
50Plus 4 6 5–6 5–7 4–7 4–9
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 2 2 2–3 2–4 1–5
DENK 3 2 2–3 2–3 2–4 2–5

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0% 100%  
26 0.2% 99.9%  
27 4% 99.8%  
28 2% 96%  
29 3% 94%  
30 19% 91%  
31 2% 72%  
32 65% 70% Median
33 3% 5% Last Result
34 1.1% 2%  
35 0.1% 0.6%  
36 0.5% 0.5%  
37 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.4% 100%  
13 0.6% 99.6%  
14 4% 99.0%  
15 2% 95%  
16 3% 93%  
17 69% 90% Median
18 1.2% 21%  
19 19% 20%  
20 0.4% 0.4% Last Result
21 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 0.3% 99.9%  
13 0.7% 99.6%  
14 4% 98.9% Last Result
15 2% 95%  
16 3% 94%  
17 83% 90% Median
18 2% 7%  
19 4% 4%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.2% 100%  
13 0.6% 99.7%  
14 3% 99.1% Last Result
15 3% 96%  
16 68% 93% Median
17 22% 26%  
18 3% 4%  
19 0.4% 1.3%  
20 0.9% 0.9%  
21 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 0.8% 99.8%  
13 3% 99.0%  
14 66% 96% Median
15 6% 31%  
16 3% 24%  
17 2% 21%  
18 19% 20%  
19 0.6% 0.7% Last Result
20 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.5% 100%  
13 3% 99.5%  
14 3% 96%  
15 23% 94%  
16 3% 71%  
17 0.5% 68%  
18 67% 68% Median
19 0.5% 0.6% Last Result
20 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.2% 100%  
7 66% 99.7% Median
8 21% 34%  
9 6% 12% Last Result
10 3% 6%  
11 1.0% 3%  
12 1.4% 2%  
13 0% 0.1%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0.2% 100%  
7 21% 99.8%  
8 69% 79% Median
9 3% 10%  
10 4% 8%  
11 2% 3%  
12 0.7% 1.0%  
13 0.2% 0.2%  
14 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 2% 100%  
4 3% 98%  
5 85% 95% Last Result, Median
6 3% 10%  
7 7% 8%  
8 0.4% 0.5%  
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 18% 100%  
5 4% 82% Last Result
6 73% 78% Median
7 4% 5%  
8 1.1% 1.3%  
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.2% 100%  
4 4% 99.8% Last Result
5 6% 96%  
6 84% 90% Median
7 4% 6%  
8 0.4% 1.2%  
9 0.8% 0.8%  
10 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.7% 100%  
2 93% 99.3% Median
3 2% 7% Last Result
4 4% 4%  
5 0.5% 0.5%  
6 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.5% 100%  
2 86% 99.5% Median
3 11% 13% Last Result
4 2% 3%  
5 1.1% 1.1%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 90 86 100% 82–86 80–86 77–89 77–89
GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 80 77 96% 77–80 77–80 74–81 71–81
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 85 76 89% 75–76 73–78 72–79 70–80
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 73 19% 73–76 71–76 70–76 69–78
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 74 71 0.4% 70–74 69–74 68–74 66–74
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 69 0% 66–69 64–69 63–70 62–72
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 63 0% 62–67 60–67 59–67 58–67
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 62 0% 62–63 61–64 61–65 59–68
GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 66 61 0% 61–63 59–64 58–64 56–65
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 64 0% 61–64 59–64 56–64 55–66
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 60 0% 59–61 59–61 58–62 55–66
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 56 0% 56–57 55–58 54–60 53–62
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 53 0% 53–56 52–56 51–59 50–60
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 61 57 0% 53–57 53–57 49–58 49–61
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 54 0% 54–55 52–56 52–57 50–60
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 46 0% 46–48 43–48 42–48 41–50
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 47 39 0% 39–41 38–42 36–43 35–44
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 39 0% 38–39 36–41 36–42 35–44
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 32 0% 30–33 29–33 28–33 27–34
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 26 0% 26–31 26–32 26–33 26–34
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 21 0% 21–26 21–26 21–27 21–29

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0% 100% Majority
77 3% 99.9%  
78 0.1% 97%  
79 2% 97%  
80 1.0% 95%  
81 2% 94%  
82 3% 93%  
83 2% 90%  
84 0.7% 87%  
85 19% 87%  
86 65% 68% Median
87 0.1% 3%  
88 0.4% 3%  
89 3% 3%  
90 0% 0% Last Result

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.2% 100%  
70 0% 99.8%  
71 0.3% 99.7%  
72 0.5% 99.4%  
73 1.1% 98.9%  
74 0.8% 98%  
75 0.6% 97%  
76 0.6% 96% Majority
77 67% 96% Median
78 5% 29%  
79 0.5% 24%  
80 20% 23% Last Result
81 3% 3%  
82 0.2% 0.4%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0.1% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 1.1% 99.9%  
71 0.2% 98.8%  
72 3% 98.7%  
73 3% 96%  
74 1.2% 93%  
75 2% 92%  
76 82% 89% Median, Majority
77 1.3% 7%  
78 3% 6%  
79 2% 3%  
80 0.5% 0.8%  
81 0.1% 0.3%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0% 99.8%  
68 0.3% 99.8%  
69 0.6% 99.5%  
70 1.5% 98.9%  
71 4% 97%  
72 1.1% 93%  
73 67% 92% Median
74 3% 25%  
75 3% 22%  
76 18% 19% Majority
77 0.6% 1.3% Last Result
78 0.3% 0.7%  
79 0.2% 0.4%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.8%  
66 1.0% 99.7%  
67 0.5% 98.7%  
68 0.8% 98%  
69 6% 97%  
70 3% 92%  
71 65% 89% Median
72 1.4% 24%  
73 4% 22%  
74 17% 18% Last Result
75 0.1% 0.4%  
76 0.1% 0.4% Majority
77 0.2% 0.3%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.5% 99.8%  
63 4% 99.3%  
64 3% 95%  
65 1.2% 92%  
66 2% 91%  
67 2% 89%  
68 18% 87%  
69 65% 69% Median
70 3% 4%  
71 0.1% 0.8%  
72 0.5% 0.7%  
73 0.1% 0.2%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.2% 99.9%  
56 0.1% 99.7%  
57 0.1% 99.6%  
58 2% 99.5%  
59 2% 98%  
60 2% 95%  
61 2% 93%  
62 5% 91%  
63 65% 86% Median
64 1.3% 21%  
65 2% 20%  
66 0.3% 18%  
67 17% 17%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0% 100%  
57 0.1% 99.9%  
58 0% 99.8%  
59 1.1% 99.8%  
60 1.1% 98.7%  
61 7% 98% Last Result
62 65% 91% Median
63 20% 25%  
64 2% 6%  
65 2% 4%  
66 0.3% 2%  
67 0.3% 1.5%  
68 0.9% 1.2%  
69 0.1% 0.3%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0% 99.9%  
55 0.2% 99.8%  
56 0.4% 99.7%  
57 0.5% 99.3%  
58 1.3% 98.8%  
59 4% 97%  
60 0.5% 93%  
61 66% 93% Median
62 1.0% 27%  
63 18% 26%  
64 6% 8%  
65 1.5% 2%  
66 0.1% 0.4% Last Result
67 0.1% 0.3%  
68 0% 0.2%  
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100%  
55 0.4% 99.9%  
56 2% 99.5%  
57 2% 97%  
58 0.1% 95%  
59 0.9% 95%  
60 4% 94%  
61 1.3% 90%  
62 0.6% 89%  
63 22% 89%  
64 65% 66% Median
65 0.5% 1.1%  
66 0.4% 0.6%  
67 0.1% 0.2%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100%  
55 1.0% 99.9%  
56 0.8% 98.9%  
57 0.4% 98%  
58 0.3% 98% Last Result
59 8% 97%  
60 65% 90% Median
61 22% 25%  
62 0.9% 3%  
63 0.6% 2%  
64 0.9% 2%  
65 0.2% 0.8%  
66 0.4% 0.6%  
67 0.1% 0.2%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100%  
52 0.2% 99.9%  
53 0.3% 99.7%  
54 4% 99.4%  
55 1.3% 95%  
56 67% 94% Median
57 21% 27% Last Result
58 2% 7%  
59 2% 5%  
60 1.5% 3%  
61 0.4% 1.5%  
62 0.9% 1.1%  
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.2% 99.9%  
50 1.2% 99.7%  
51 2% 98.6%  
52 4% 96%  
53 65% 93% Median
54 2% 28%  
55 0.9% 26%  
56 22% 25%  
57 0.4% 3%  
58 0.4% 3%  
59 0.9% 3%  
60 2% 2%  
61 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
62 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.3% 99.9%  
49 3% 99.7%  
50 0.2% 97%  
51 0.4% 97%  
52 0.7% 96%  
53 18% 96%  
54 4% 78%  
55 0.9% 73%  
56 5% 73%  
57 65% 68% Median
58 2% 3%  
59 0.5% 1.2%  
60 0.1% 0.6%  
61 0.5% 0.5% Last Result
62 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0% 100%  
49 0.1% 99.9%  
50 0.9% 99.9%  
51 1.2% 98.9%  
52 3% 98%  
53 0.8% 94%  
54 67% 94% Last Result, Median
55 20% 26%  
56 3% 6%  
57 2% 3%  
58 0.5% 1.2%  
59 0.1% 0.7%  
60 0.5% 0.6%  
61 0% 0.1%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0% 100%  
40 0.1% 99.9%  
41 0.6% 99.8%  
42 3% 99.2%  
43 4% 96%  
44 2% 93%  
45 0.7% 91%  
46 65% 90% Median
47 2% 25%  
48 22% 23%  
49 0.8% 2%  
50 0.6% 1.0%  
51 0.1% 0.4%  
52 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
53 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100%  
34 0.1% 99.9%  
35 0.4% 99.8%  
36 2% 99.4%  
37 1.3% 97%  
38 5% 96%  
39 65% 91% Median
40 2% 26%  
41 18% 24%  
42 3% 6%  
43 1.4% 3%  
44 1.4% 2%  
45 0.1% 0.2%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.1% 99.9%  
34 0.1% 99.9%  
35 1.1% 99.7%  
36 4% 98.7%  
37 0.5% 95%  
38 19% 94%  
39 65% 75% Median
40 3% 9%  
41 4% 7%  
42 1.0% 3% Last Result
43 2% 2%  
44 0.1% 0.6%  
45 0.1% 0.4%  
46 0% 0.3%  
47 0.3% 0.3%  
48 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.4% 100%  
26 0.1% 99.6%  
27 1.3% 99.5%  
28 1.3% 98%  
29 3% 97%  
30 5% 94%  
31 1.4% 89%  
32 66% 88% Median
33 20% 21%  
34 1.3% 2%  
35 0.2% 0.4%  
36 0.2% 0.2%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.1% 99.9%  
25 0.1% 99.8%  
26 65% 99.7% Median
27 1.0% 35%  
28 3% 34%  
29 3% 30%  
30 5% 28%  
31 18% 23%  
32 2% 5%  
33 2% 3% Last Result
34 0.9% 1.1%  
35 0.2% 0.2%  
36 0% 0.1%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.2% 100%  
20 0.2% 99.8%  
21 65% 99.6% Median
22 2% 34%  
23 4% 32%  
24 4% 28%  
25 3% 25%  
26 18% 22%  
27 2% 4%  
28 0.8% 2% Last Result
29 1.3% 1.3%  
30 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations