Opinion Poll by Peil.nl, 26 February–4 March 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 17.3% 16.5–18.3% 16.2–18.5% 16.0–18.7% 15.6–19.2%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 10.7% 10.0–11.4% 9.8–11.6% 9.6–11.8% 9.3–12.2%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 10.0% 9.3–10.7% 9.1–10.9% 9.0–11.1% 8.7–11.5%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 9.3% 8.7–10.1% 8.5–10.3% 8.3–10.4% 8.0–10.8%
GroenLinks 9.1% 9.3% 8.7–10.1% 8.5–10.3% 8.3–10.4% 8.0–10.8%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 8.7% 8.0–9.4% 7.8–9.6% 7.7–9.7% 7.4–10.1%
Democraten 66 12.2% 8.7% 8.0–9.4% 7.8–9.6% 7.7–9.7% 7.4–10.1%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 8.0% 7.4–8.7% 7.2–8.9% 7.1–9.0% 6.8–9.4%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.7% 4.2–5.2% 4.1–5.3% 4.0–5.5% 3.7–5.8%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 4.7% 4.2–5.2% 4.1–5.3% 4.0–5.5% 3.7–5.8%
50Plus 3.1% 4.7% 4.2–5.2% 4.1–5.3% 4.0–5.5% 3.7–5.8%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%
DENK 2.1% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 24 24–28 24–28 24–28 24–29
Socialistische Partij 14 16 16–17 16–17 15–18 14–20
Forum voor Democratie 2 16 15–16 15–16 15–16 13–17
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 14 13–14 13–15 13–15 12–16
GroenLinks 14 15 14–15 14–15 13–16 12–16
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 12 12–13 12–13 12–14 12–15
Democraten 66 19 15 13–15 12–15 12–15 12–16
Partij van de Arbeid 9 12 11–12 11–13 11–13 10–14
ChristenUnie 5 8 7–8 6–8 5–8 5–9
Partij voor de Dieren 5 6 6–7 6–8 6–8 5–9
50Plus 4 7 7 6–7 6–7 6–8
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–4
DENK 3 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–4

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 64% 99.9% Median
25 7% 36%  
26 5% 29%  
27 3% 24%  
28 21% 21%  
29 0.4% 0.6%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0% Last Result

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 2% 99.9% Last Result
15 2% 98%  
16 72% 96% Median
17 20% 24%  
18 2% 3%  
19 0% 1.4%  
20 1.4% 1.4%  
21 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0.1% 100%  
13 0.6% 99.9%  
14 2% 99.3%  
15 23% 98%  
16 74% 75% Median
17 0.8% 0.8%  
18 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.5% 100%  
13 19% 99.5%  
14 72% 80% Median
15 6% 8%  
16 2% 2%  
17 0.2% 0.2%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0% Last Result

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 1.5% 100%  
13 2% 98.5%  
14 10% 97% Last Result
15 84% 87% Median
16 3% 3%  
17 0.2% 0.4%  
18 0.2% 0.2%  
19 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.4% 100%  
12 72% 99.5% Median
13 24% 27%  
14 2% 3%  
15 1.1% 1.2%  
16 0.2% 0.2%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.3% 100%  
12 8% 99.7%  
13 22% 91%  
14 3% 69%  
15 65% 66% Median
16 1.4% 1.4%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 2% 100%  
11 21% 98%  
12 70% 77% Median
13 6% 7%  
14 1.4% 1.4%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 5% 100% Last Result
6 3% 95%  
7 13% 93%  
8 79% 80% Median
9 0.6% 0.6%  
10 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 1.2% 100% Last Result
6 83% 98.8% Median
7 9% 16%  
8 5% 7%  
9 2% 2%  
10 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 0.3% 100%  
6 9% 99.7%  
7 89% 91% Median
8 2% 2%  
9 0.5% 0.5%  
10 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 28% 99.9%  
3 70% 72% Last Result, Median
4 2% 2%  
5 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 85% 100% Median
3 14% 15% Last Result
4 0.9% 0.9%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Socialistische Partij – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 80 78 85% 75–78 74–78 73–78 72–80
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 90 74 17% 72–77 72–77 72–77 70–78
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 85 71 0.4% 70–73 69–73 69–73 68–75
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 69 0.5% 69–72 69–73 69–73 68–75
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 74 66 0% 66–69 66–70 66–71 66–72
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 62 0% 62–65 62–65 62–66 61–68
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus 58 59 0% 59–63 59–63 59–64 59–65
GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 66 62 0% 58–62 57–62 57–62 56–64
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 59 0% 58–62 57–62 57–62 56–63
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 55 0% 55–58 55–58 55–59 55–62
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 54 52 0% 52–56 52–56 52–57 52–58
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 51 0% 51–54 50–54 50–55 49–56
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 50 0% 50–54 50–55 50–55 50–57
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 48 0% 48–52 48–54 48–54 48–55
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 61 51 0% 51–52 50–53 49–53 48–56
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 36 0% 36–41 36–41 36–41 36–42
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 36 0% 36–39 36–41 36–41 35–42
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 47 39 0% 37–39 37–39 36–39 35–41
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 32 0% 31–32 30–32 30–33 29–35
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 27 0% 25–27 25–27 24–28 24–29
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 24 0% 24–25 23–26 23–26 23–27

Socialistische Partij – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.2% 100%  
72 1.2% 99.8%  
73 1.4% 98.6%  
74 7% 97%  
75 5% 90%  
76 2% 85% Majority
77 18% 83%  
78 65% 65% Median
79 0.2% 0.8%  
80 0.2% 0.6% Last Result
81 0.3% 0.3%  
82 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 2% 99.9%  
71 0.5% 98%  
72 9% 98%  
73 5% 89%  
74 64% 85% Median
75 4% 21%  
76 2% 17% Majority
77 14% 15%  
78 0.8% 0.9%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.2% 100%  
68 1.5% 99.8%  
69 7% 98%  
70 2% 91%  
71 67% 89% Median
72 5% 23%  
73 16% 18%  
74 2% 2%  
75 0.3% 0.7%  
76 0.2% 0.4% Majority
77 0.2% 0.2%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.2% 100%  
68 1.4% 99.7%  
69 64% 98% Median
70 6% 34%  
71 17% 27%  
72 5% 11%  
73 4% 6%  
74 0.6% 2%  
75 0.5% 0.9%  
76 0.4% 0.5% Majority
77 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0.2% 99.9%  
66 64% 99.7% Median
67 4% 35%  
68 6% 31%  
69 15% 25%  
70 7% 10%  
71 2% 3%  
72 1.2% 1.3%  
73 0% 0.1%  
74 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 2% 99.9% Last Result
62 70% 98% Median
63 3% 28%  
64 3% 26%  
65 19% 23%  
66 1.1% 3%  
67 2% 2%  
68 0.1% 0.6%  
69 0.5% 0.5%  
70 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.2% 100% Last Result
59 66% 99.7% Median
60 7% 33%  
61 3% 26%  
62 2% 23%  
63 18% 21%  
64 2% 3%  
65 1.2% 1.2%  
66 0% 0%  

GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.2% 100%  
56 0.3% 99.8%  
57 5% 99.5%  
58 5% 95%  
59 6% 90%  
60 19% 83%  
61 0.4% 64%  
62 63% 64% Median
63 0.1% 0.6%  
64 0.2% 0.6%  
65 0.3% 0.3%  
66 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.2% 100%  
56 2% 99.8%  
57 6% 98%  
58 6% 93%  
59 63% 86% Median
60 3% 23%  
61 3% 20%  
62 17% 17%  
63 0.3% 0.6%  
64 0% 0.3%  
65 0.3% 0.3%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.3% 100%  
55 70% 99.7% Median
56 3% 30%  
57 3% 27% Last Result
58 21% 25%  
59 1.4% 3%  
60 1.4% 2%  
61 0.1% 0.6%  
62 0.5% 0.5%  
63 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.2% 100%  
52 63% 99.8% Median
53 10% 37%  
54 2% 27% Last Result
55 3% 25%  
56 19% 22%  
57 2% 3%  
58 0.7% 0.8%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 1.4% 99.9%  
50 7% 98%  
51 63% 92% Median
52 3% 29%  
53 5% 26%  
54 17% 21%  
55 3% 4%  
56 0.3% 0.7%  
57 0.2% 0.4%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100%  
50 63% 99.9% Median
51 5% 37%  
52 5% 33%  
53 3% 28%  
54 18% 25%  
55 5% 7%  
56 1.1% 2%  
57 0.5% 0.8%  
58 0.2% 0.3%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 64% 100% Median
49 7% 36%  
50 5% 29%  
51 2% 24%  
52 16% 23%  
53 2% 7%  
54 4% 5%  
55 1.2% 1.4%  
56 0.2% 0.2%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 2% 100%  
49 2% 98%  
50 6% 96%  
51 65% 90% Median
52 17% 25%  
53 6% 8%  
54 1.0% 2%  
55 0.2% 1.1%  
56 0.9% 0.9%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 63% 100% Median
37 7% 37%  
38 4% 31%  
39 2% 27%  
40 4% 25%  
41 19% 21%  
42 0.9% 1.3%  
43 0.2% 0.4%  
44 0.1% 0.2%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 1.4% 100%  
36 63% 98.6% Median
37 10% 35%  
38 3% 25%  
39 16% 22%  
40 1.1% 6%  
41 4% 5%  
42 1.0% 1.1% Last Result
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 2% 100%  
36 1.0% 98%  
37 22% 97%  
38 7% 75%  
39 66% 68% Median
40 0.6% 2%  
41 1.3% 2%  
42 0.4% 0.4%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.4% 100%  
29 0.4% 99.6%  
30 5% 99.2%  
31 9% 94%  
32 82% 85% Median
33 1.0% 3% Last Result
34 0.8% 2%  
35 0.6% 0.8%  
36 0% 0.2%  
37 0.2% 0.2%  
38 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.3% 100%  
24 3% 99.7%  
25 9% 96%  
26 17% 87%  
27 66% 70% Median
28 4% 4%  
29 0.5% 0.9%  
30 0.5% 0.5%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.4% 100%  
23 5% 99.6%  
24 83% 95% Median
25 5% 12%  
26 5% 7%  
27 2% 2%  
28 0.1% 0.3% Last Result
29 0.2% 0.2%  
30 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations