Opinion Poll by Peil.nl, 5–11 March 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 16.7% 15.8–17.6% 15.6–17.8% 15.4–18.0% 15.0–18.5%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 10.7% 10.0–11.4% 9.8–11.6% 9.6–11.8% 9.3–12.2%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 10.0% 9.3–10.7% 9.1–10.9% 9.0–11.1% 8.7–11.5%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 9.3% 8.7–10.1% 8.5–10.3% 8.3–10.4% 8.0–10.8%
Democraten 66 12.2% 9.3% 8.7–10.1% 8.5–10.3% 8.3–10.4% 8.0–10.8%
GroenLinks 9.1% 9.3% 8.7–10.1% 8.5–10.3% 8.3–10.4% 8.0–10.8%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 8.7% 8.0–9.4% 7.8–9.6% 7.7–9.7% 7.4–10.1%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 8.0% 7.4–8.7% 7.2–8.9% 7.1–9.0% 6.8–9.4%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.7% 4.2–5.2% 4.1–5.3% 4.0–5.5% 3.7–5.8%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 4.7% 4.2–5.2% 4.1–5.3% 4.0–5.5% 3.7–5.8%
50Plus 3.1% 4.7% 4.2–5.2% 4.1–5.3% 4.0–5.5% 3.7–5.8%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%
DENK 2.1% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 25 24–26 24–27 24–27 24–28
Socialistische Partij 14 16 14–17 14–17 14–18 14–18
Forum voor Democratie 2 14 14–17 14–17 14–17 13–17
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 15 14–17 14–17 13–17 12–17
Democraten 66 19 14 13–16 13–16 13–16 13–17
GroenLinks 14 14 13–16 12–16 12–16 12–16
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 13 12–13 12–15 12–15 11–15
Partij van de Arbeid 9 12 12–13 11–13 11–13 11–14
ChristenUnie 5 7 7 6–8 6–9 5–9
Partij voor de Dieren 5 6 6–8 6–8 6–8 5–8
50Plus 4 6 6–7 6–8 6–8 5–8
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 2 2–3 2–3 2–4 2–4
DENK 3 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–4

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.3% 99.9%  
24 33% 99.6%  
25 54% 66% Median
26 5% 12%  
27 5% 8%  
28 2% 2%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0% Last Result

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.3% 100%  
14 24% 99.7% Last Result
15 8% 75%  
16 20% 68% Median
17 44% 47%  
18 3% 4%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0.4% 100%  
13 1.4% 99.6%  
14 59% 98% Median
15 8% 39%  
16 16% 31%  
17 15% 15%  
18 0.1% 0.2%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 2% 100%  
13 1.3% 98%  
14 33% 97%  
15 32% 64% Median
16 0.3% 32%  
17 32% 32%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.3% 100%  
13 42% 99.7%  
14 18% 58% Median
15 25% 40%  
16 13% 15%  
17 1.3% 1.3%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 8% 100%  
13 17% 92%  
14 29% 75% Last Result, Median
15 11% 46%  
16 35% 35%  
17 0.2% 0.2%  
18 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 1.1% 100%  
12 29% 98.9%  
13 60% 70% Median
14 4% 10%  
15 6% 6%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 0.3% 100%  
11 9% 99.7%  
12 48% 90% Median
13 42% 43%  
14 0.5% 0.7%  
15 0.2% 0.2%  
16 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.6% 100% Last Result
6 6% 99.4%  
7 86% 94% Median
8 4% 7%  
9 3% 3%  
10 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.8% 100% Last Result
6 59% 99.2% Median
7 11% 40%  
8 30% 30%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 2% 100%  
6 50% 98% Median
7 43% 48%  
8 5% 5%  
9 0.3% 0.3%  
10 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 53% 100% Median
3 44% 47% Last Result
4 3% 4%  
5 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 44% 99.9%  
3 55% 56% Last Result, Median
4 1.0% 1.0%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Socialistische Partij – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 80 79 90% 75–82 75–82 75–82 75–82
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 90 76 65% 75–77 73–77 71–77 71–78
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 85 73 0.7% 72–75 72–75 70–75 69–76
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 70 0% 70–72 70–73 68–74 66–74
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid 74 68 0% 67–69 67–71 65–71 64–71
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 64 0% 63–65 63–67 63–67 61–69
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus 58 61 0% 61–62 60–64 60–65 58–66
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 66 64 0% 60–65 59–65 59–65 58–65
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 61 0% 60–62 59–63 59–63 58–63
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 57 0% 57–58 56–59 56–60 54–62
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 54 55 0% 54–56 54–56 53–57 51–59
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 54 0% 53–55 52–55 52–56 50–57
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid 72 53 0% 51–54 51–55 51–55 49–55
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 53 0% 51–53 51–53 50–54 48–55
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 61 51 0% 49–54 49–54 49–54 49–54
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 47 42 0% 40–43 39–43 38–43 37–43
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 40 0% 39–41 39–41 39–41 37–43
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 38 0% 36–38 36–39 36–40 35–40
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 35 0% 33–36 32–36 32–36 30–36
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 30 0% 28–30 27–30 27–30 26–31
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 28 0% 26–29 25–29 25–29 24–29

Socialistische Partij – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0.3% 99.9%  
75 10% 99.6%  
76 2% 90% Majority
77 4% 88%  
78 26% 84% Median
79 25% 58%  
80 1.4% 33% Last Result
81 0.4% 32%  
82 31% 31%  
83 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 4% 99.9%  
72 0.7% 96%  
73 3% 96%  
74 0.5% 93%  
75 27% 92% Median
76 31% 65% Majority
77 33% 34%  
78 0.5% 0.6%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.3% 100%  
69 0.4% 99.7%  
70 3% 99.3%  
71 2% 97%  
72 13% 95%  
73 36% 83% Median
74 6% 46%  
75 40% 41%  
76 0.6% 0.7% Majority
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.6% 100%  
67 0.2% 99.3%  
68 3% 99.1%  
69 1.0% 97% Median
70 78% 96%  
71 7% 18%  
72 2% 10%  
73 5% 8%  
74 3% 3%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Majority
77 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.7% 100%  
65 2% 99.3%  
66 1.4% 97%  
67 34% 96% Median
68 51% 62%  
69 2% 10%  
70 1.4% 8%  
71 7% 7%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.2% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.8%  
61 0.8% 99.7% Last Result
62 1.3% 99.0% Median
63 34% 98%  
64 45% 64%  
65 12% 19%  
66 1.3% 7%  
67 4% 6%  
68 0.1% 2%  
69 2% 2%  
70 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.2% 100%  
58 0.8% 99.8% Last Result
59 0.5% 99.0%  
60 5% 98% Median
61 57% 94%  
62 28% 37%  
63 2% 8%  
64 3% 6%  
65 0.5% 3%  
66 2% 2%  
67 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.5% 99.9%  
59 4% 99.3%  
60 8% 95%  
61 5% 87%  
62 11% 82% Median
63 14% 71%  
64 24% 56%  
65 32% 32%  
66 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.4% 100%  
58 1.1% 99.6%  
59 6% 98%  
60 11% 92%  
61 34% 82% Median
62 40% 48%  
63 7% 7%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.2% 100%  
53 0% 99.8%  
54 1.1% 99.8%  
55 1.2% 98.7%  
56 3% 98% Median
57 58% 95% Last Result
58 27% 37%  
59 6% 10%  
60 1.4% 4%  
61 0.1% 2%  
62 2% 2%  
63 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.2% 100%  
51 0.5% 99.8%  
52 1.1% 99.4%  
53 3% 98%  
54 25% 95% Last Result, Median
55 46% 71%  
56 21% 24%  
57 0.6% 3%  
58 0.2% 2%  
59 2% 2%  
60 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.4% 100%  
50 0.2% 99.6%  
51 1.3% 99.4%  
52 3% 98%  
53 14% 95%  
54 36% 81% Median
55 41% 45%  
56 2% 4%  
57 2% 2%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.7% 100%  
50 0.9% 99.2%  
51 23% 98%  
52 4% 76%  
53 29% 72% Median
54 35% 43%  
55 7% 8%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.6% 99.9%  
49 1.3% 99.4%  
50 3% 98%  
51 12% 95%  
52 20% 83% Median
53 61% 64%  
54 0.5% 3%  
55 2% 2%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.4% 99.9%  
49 34% 99.5%  
50 1.1% 66%  
51 18% 65% Median
52 7% 47%  
53 26% 41%  
54 14% 15%  
55 0.1% 0.4%  
56 0% 0.3%  
57 0.3% 0.3%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.6% 99.9%  
38 2% 99.3%  
39 6% 97%  
40 18% 92%  
41 3% 74% Median
42 35% 71%  
43 36% 36%  
44 0.3% 0.5%  
45 0.2% 0.2%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.5% 100%  
37 1.2% 99.5%  
38 0.5% 98%  
39 27% 98%  
40 30% 70% Median
41 38% 41%  
42 0.3% 2%  
43 2% 2%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.2% 99.9%  
35 1.3% 99.7%  
36 36% 98%  
37 11% 63% Median
38 47% 52%  
39 2% 5%  
40 3% 3%  
41 0.4% 0.4%  
42 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.1% 99.9%  
30 0.4% 99.9%  
31 1.2% 99.4%  
32 7% 98%  
33 13% 91% Last Result
34 19% 78% Median
35 26% 60%  
36 33% 34%  
37 0.3% 0.3%  
38 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.5% 100%  
26 1.5% 99.5%  
27 6% 98%  
28 18% 92%  
29 4% 74% Median
30 67% 70%  
31 2% 2%  
32 0.4% 0.4%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.4% 100%  
24 1.3% 99.6%  
25 6% 98%  
26 14% 92%  
27 21% 78% Median
28 25% 57% Last Result
29 32% 32%  
30 0.2% 0.3%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations