Opinion Poll by I&O Research, 8–12 March 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 17.7% 16.9–18.6% 16.6–18.8% 16.4–19.0% 16.0–19.4%
GroenLinks 9.1% 10.7% 10.0–11.4% 9.8–11.6% 9.7–11.8% 9.4–12.1%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 10.5% 9.8–11.2% 9.6–11.4% 9.5–11.6% 9.2–11.9%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 10.5% 9.8–11.2% 9.6–11.4% 9.5–11.6% 9.2–11.9%
Democraten 66 12.2% 10.2% 9.5–10.9% 9.4–11.1% 9.2–11.3% 8.9–11.6%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 8.4% 7.8–9.1% 7.7–9.3% 7.5–9.4% 7.2–9.7%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 7.6% 7.1–8.2% 6.9–8.4% 6.8–8.6% 6.5–8.9%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 6.8% 6.3–7.4% 6.1–7.6% 6.0–7.7% 5.8–8.0%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 5.0% 4.6–5.5% 4.4–5.7% 4.3–5.8% 4.1–6.1%
50Plus 3.1% 4.2% 3.8–4.7% 3.7–4.8% 3.6–5.0% 3.4–5.2%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 3.6% 3.2–4.1% 3.1–4.2% 3.0–4.3% 2.9–4.5%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.3% 2.0–2.7% 1.9–2.8% 1.8–2.9% 1.7–3.1%
DENK 2.1% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.5–2.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 28 28 26–28 26–29 24–29
GroenLinks 14 16 16 16–17 15–17 15–18
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 17 16–17 16–17 15–17 15–18
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 16 16 15–16 14–17 14–17
Democraten 66 19 16 16 15–16 15–16 14–17
Socialistische Partij 14 12 12 12–13 11–13 11–14
Partij van de Arbeid 9 12 12 11–12 11–12 10–12
Forum voor Democratie 2 11 10–11 10–11 10–11 9–11
ChristenUnie 5 6 6–7 6–7 6–8 6–8
50Plus 4 6 6–7 6–7 6–7 5–7
Partij voor de Dieren 5 5 5 5–6 4–6 4–6
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 3 3 3 3–4 2–4
DENK 3 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–4

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.6% 100%  
25 0.6% 99.4%  
26 6% 98.8%  
27 1.1% 93%  
28 89% 92% Median
29 2% 3%  
30 0.2% 0.2%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0% Last Result

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100% Last Result
15 3% 99.9%  
16 87% 97% Median
17 8% 9%  
18 1.3% 2%  
19 0.3% 0.3%  
20 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.2% 100%  
15 3% 99.8%  
16 9% 97%  
17 87% 88% Median
18 0.4% 0.7%  
19 0.3% 0.3%  
20 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 4% 99.9%  
15 5% 96%  
16 88% 91% Median
17 2% 3%  
18 0.2% 0.4%  
19 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
20 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 2% 99.9%  
15 5% 98%  
16 92% 93% Median
17 0.9% 1.1%  
18 0.1% 0.2%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 4% 100%  
12 86% 96% Median
13 8% 9%  
14 0.8% 1.1% Last Result
15 0.3% 0.3%  
16 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100% Last Result
10 2% 99.9%  
11 3% 98%  
12 94% 95% Median
13 0.4% 0.5%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.2% 100%  
9 2% 99.8%  
10 8% 98%  
11 89% 90% Median
12 0.2% 0.3%  
13 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100% Last Result
6 85% 99.9% Median
7 11% 15%  
8 4% 4%  
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 2% 100%  
6 87% 98% Median
7 11% 11%  
8 0.2% 0.2%  
9 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 3% 100%  
5 92% 97% Last Result, Median
6 6% 6%  
7 0.2% 0.2%  
8 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.6% 100%  
3 95% 99.4% Last Result, Median
4 5% 5%  
5 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 89% 100% Median
3 11% 11% Last Result
4 0.9% 0.9%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 90 82 100% 82 81–82 80–84 79–85
GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 80 78 99.9% 78 78–79 77–80 76–82
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 85 78 96% 78 76–78 75–78 74–80
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 75 0.5% 73–75 71–75 70–75 70–76
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie 74 72 0% 69–72 68–72 67–72 66–72
GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 66 66 0% 66 65–67 64–67 63–69
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 66 0% 66 64–66 63–67 62–69
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 64 0% 63–64 61–64 61–64 60–65
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 61 0% 60–61 58–61 58–61 56–62
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid 72 61 0% 59–61 57–61 57–61 56–62
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 60 0% 59–60 57–60 56–60 55–61
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 58 0% 56–58 55–58 54–58 54–59
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 56 0% 55–56 53–56 53–56 52–57
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 61 56 0% 54–56 54–56 52–56 51–57
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 55 0% 53–55 51–55 51–55 51–55
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 47 44 0% 43–44 42–44 42–44 40–45
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 44 0% 43–44 41–44 41–44 40–45
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 40 0% 39–40 38–40 37–40 36–41
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 34 0% 34 34–35 33–35 33–37
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 32 0% 31–32 31–32 30–32 28–33
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 28 0% 27–28 27–28 26–28 25–29

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0.1% 100%  
79 2% 99.9%  
80 0.4% 98%  
81 7% 97%  
82 86% 91% Median
83 1.3% 4%  
84 2% 3%  
85 0.4% 0.7%  
86 0.2% 0.2%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result

GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0% 100%  
76 2% 99.9% Majority
77 3% 98%  
78 88% 95% Median
79 2% 7%  
80 3% 5% Last Result
81 0.5% 2%  
82 1.1% 1.2%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0.6% 99.9%  
75 3% 99.3%  
76 4% 96% Majority
77 2% 92%  
78 89% 90% Median
79 0.6% 1.3%  
80 0.5% 0.7%  
81 0.1% 0.2%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 5% 99.9%  
71 1.2% 95%  
72 3% 94%  
73 5% 91%  
74 1.0% 86%  
75 85% 85% Median
76 0.5% 0.5% Majority
77 0% 0.1% Last Result
78 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.7% 100%  
67 4% 99.3%  
68 1.1% 95%  
69 6% 94%  
70 3% 88%  
71 0.4% 86%  
72 85% 85% Median
73 0.4% 0.5%  
74 0% 0.1% Last Result
75 0% 0%  

GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 2% 99.9%  
64 3% 98%  
65 0.8% 96%  
66 86% 95% Last Result, Median
67 7% 9%  
68 0.9% 2%  
69 1.0% 1.2%  
70 0.2% 0.2%  
71 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.5% 100%  
63 2% 99.4%  
64 4% 97%  
65 2% 93%  
66 87% 91% Median
67 2% 3%  
68 0.6% 1.2%  
69 0.5% 0.6%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 2% 99.8%  
61 4% 98% Last Result
62 0.8% 94%  
63 5% 93%  
64 87% 89% Median
65 1.2% 2%  
66 0.4% 0.5%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.7% 99.9%  
57 1.1% 99.2%  
58 4% 98% Last Result
59 0.8% 94%  
60 6% 93%  
61 86% 87% Median
62 0.5% 0.6%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0% 100%  
56 1.0% 99.9%  
57 5% 99.0%  
58 2% 94%  
59 4% 92%  
60 3% 88%  
61 85% 86% Median
62 0.3% 0.7%  
63 0.4% 0.4%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.8% 99.9%  
56 2% 99.1%  
57 5% 97%  
58 2% 93%  
59 5% 91%  
60 85% 86% Median
61 0.5% 0.9%  
62 0.4% 0.4%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.2% 100%  
54 5% 99.8%  
55 1.0% 95%  
56 4% 94%  
57 3% 90% Last Result
58 86% 87% Median
59 0.4% 0.6%  
60 0.2% 0.2%  
61 0% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 1.3% 99.8%  
53 6% 98.6%  
54 2% 93%  
55 5% 91%  
56 85% 86% Median
57 0.6% 0.8%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.3% 100%  
51 1.5% 99.7%  
52 0.8% 98%  
53 0.6% 97%  
54 8% 97%  
55 2% 89%  
56 85% 87% Median
57 2% 2%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.3% 100%  
51 5% 99.7%  
52 0.5% 94%  
53 6% 94%  
54 2% 88% Last Result
55 86% 86% Median
56 0.2% 0.3%  
57 0% 0.1%  
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 2% 99.9%  
41 0.5% 98%  
42 6% 98%  
43 6% 92%  
44 85% 86% Median
45 0.7% 0.9%  
46 0.1% 0.2%  
47 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
48 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.9% 99.9%  
41 5% 99.0%  
42 2% 94%  
43 4% 92%  
44 87% 88% Median
45 0.7% 1.0%  
46 0.3% 0.3%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.2% 100%  
36 2% 99.8%  
37 0.6% 98%  
38 6% 97%  
39 2% 92%  
40 87% 90% Median
41 2% 2%  
42 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
43 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.3% 100%  
33 4% 99.7% Last Result
34 90% 95% Median
35 4% 5%  
36 0.8% 1.4%  
37 0.4% 0.6%  
38 0.2% 0.2%  
39 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 2% 100%  
29 0.4% 98%  
30 3% 98%  
31 8% 95%  
32 86% 87% Median
33 0.9% 1.3%  
34 0.3% 0.5%  
35 0.2% 0.2%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.6% 99.9%  
26 4% 99.3%  
27 8% 95%  
28 86% 87% Last Result, Median
29 0.8% 1.1%  
30 0.1% 0.3%  
31 0.2% 0.2%  
32 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations