Opinion Poll by Peil.nl, 12–18 March 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 17.3% 16.5–18.3% 16.2–18.5% 16.0–18.7% 15.6–19.2%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 10.7% 10.0–11.4% 9.8–11.6% 9.6–11.8% 9.3–12.2%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 10.0% 9.3–10.7% 9.1–10.9% 9.0–11.1% 8.7–11.5%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 9.3% 8.7–10.1% 8.5–10.3% 8.3–10.4% 8.0–10.8%
GroenLinks 9.1% 9.3% 8.7–10.1% 8.5–10.3% 8.3–10.4% 8.0–10.8%
Democraten 66 12.2% 8.7% 8.0–9.4% 7.8–9.6% 7.7–9.7% 7.4–10.1%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 8.0% 7.4–8.7% 7.2–8.9% 7.1–9.0% 6.8–9.4%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 8.0% 7.4–8.7% 7.2–8.9% 7.1–9.0% 6.8–9.4%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.7% 4.2–5.2% 4.1–5.3% 4.0–5.5% 3.7–5.8%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 4.7% 4.2–5.2% 4.1–5.3% 4.0–5.5% 3.7–5.8%
50Plus 3.1% 4.7% 4.2–5.2% 4.1–5.3% 4.0–5.5% 3.7–5.8%
DENK 2.1% 2.7% 2.3–3.1% 2.2–3.2% 2.1–3.3% 2.0–3.5%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 26 26 26 26–27 25–29
Forum voor Democratie 2 17 17 17 15–17 15–17
Socialistische Partij 14 15 15 15 15 14–16
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 14 14 14 14 12–14
GroenLinks 14 13 13 13 13–15 13–16
Democraten 66 19 12 12 12 12–13 11–14
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 13 13 13 13 11–13
Partij van de Arbeid 9 12 12 12 12 10–13
ChristenUnie 5 7 7 7 7 7–8
Partij voor de Dieren 5 7 7 7 6–7 6–7
50Plus 4 7 7 7 7 7
DENK 3 4 4 4 4 3–4
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 3 3 3 3 2–3

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.4% 99.9%  
26 97% 99.4% Median
27 2% 3%  
28 0.1% 1.4%  
29 1.3% 1.3%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0% Last Result

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 3% 100%  
16 0.6% 97%  
17 96% 97% Median
18 0.1% 0.2%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.2% 100%  
14 0.8% 99.8% Last Result
15 98% 99.0% Median
16 0.3% 0.6%  
17 0.2% 0.3%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 2% 100%  
13 0.3% 98%  
14 98% 98% Median
15 0.3% 0.4%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.3% 100%  
13 96% 99.7% Median
14 0.3% 4% Last Result
15 1.1% 3%  
16 2% 2%  
17 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.5% 100%  
12 96% 99.5% Median
13 1.2% 3%  
14 2% 2%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.5% 100%  
12 2% 99.5%  
13 98% 98% Median
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 0.7% 100%  
11 0.8% 99.3%  
12 98% 98% Median
13 0.3% 0.6%  
14 0.1% 0.3%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.2% 100% Last Result
6 0.3% 99.8%  
7 98% 99.5% Median
8 1.0% 1.0%  
9 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0% 100% Last Result
6 3% 100%  
7 97% 97% Median
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 0% 100%  
6 0.4% 100%  
7 99.4% 99.6% Median
8 0.2% 0.2%  
9 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 1.0% 100% Last Result
4 98.7% 99.0% Median
5 0.3% 0.3%  
6 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 2% 100%  
3 98% 98% Last Result, Median
4 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 90 72 3% 72 72 72–76 72–79
Socialistische Partij – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 80 73 2% 73 73 73–75 73–76
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 73 0% 73 73 72–73 69–73
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 85 71 0% 71 71 71–72 71–74
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid 74 70 0% 70 70 69–70 67–70
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 67 0% 67 67 67 63–68
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus 58 64 0% 64 64 64 61–65
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 60 0% 60 60 60 56–61
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 59 0% 59 59 59–60 59–64
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 66 58 0% 58 58 58–60 58–61
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 54 57 0% 57 57 57 54–58
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid 72 53 0% 53 53 53 50–55
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 52 0% 52 52 52–53 52–56
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 52 0% 52 52 52 51–54
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 61 50 0% 50 50 50–52 50–53
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 40 0% 40 40 40 39–43
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 38 0% 38 38 38–39 37–40
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 47 38 0% 38 38 38 36–40
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 33 0% 33 33 32–33 31–34
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 26 0% 26 26 26 25–28
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 26 0% 26 26 25–26 24–27

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.3% 100%  
72 96% 99.7% Median
73 0.2% 4%  
74 0.3% 3%  
75 0.2% 3%  
76 2% 3% Majority
77 0.6% 1.3%  
78 0% 0.8%  
79 0.7% 0.7%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result

Socialistische Partij – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 97% 100% Median
74 0.2% 3%  
75 1.1% 3%  
76 2% 2% Majority
77 0.1% 0.3%  
78 0.1% 0.2%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 2% 99.8%  
70 0.2% 98%  
71 0.2% 98%  
72 0.4% 98%  
73 97% 97% Median
74 0.1% 0.2%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0% Majority
77 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0% 99.9%  
71 96% 99.8% Median
72 2% 4%  
73 0.1% 1.1%  
74 0.8% 1.0%  
75 0.1% 0.2%  
76 0% 0% Majority
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.2% 100%  
66 0.2% 99.8%  
67 2% 99.7%  
68 0.2% 98%  
69 0.4% 98%  
70 97% 97% Median
71 0.1% 0.2%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0% 100%  
63 2% 100%  
64 0.2% 98%  
65 0.2% 98%  
66 0.2% 98%  
67 96% 98% Median
68 1.2% 1.4%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100% Last Result
59 0% 100%  
60 0.1% 100%  
61 2% 99.9%  
62 0.4% 98%  
63 0.1% 98%  
64 96% 98% Median
65 1.3% 1.5%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 2% 100%  
57 0.3% 98% Last Result
58 0.2% 98%  
59 0.3% 98%  
60 96% 98% Median
61 1.4% 2%  
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.2% 100%  
58 0.2% 99.8%  
59 96% 99.7% Median
60 2% 3%  
61 0.7% 2%  
62 0.1% 0.9%  
63 0% 0.8%  
64 0.8% 0.8%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 96% 99.9% Median
59 0.6% 4%  
60 1.0% 3%  
61 2% 2%  
62 0.1% 0.3%  
63 0.2% 0.2%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 2% 100% Last Result
55 0.3% 98%  
56 0.3% 98%  
57 96% 98% Median
58 1.3% 2%  
59 0.1% 0.2%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.5% 100%  
51 0.1% 99.5%  
52 2% 99.4%  
53 96% 98% Median
54 0.1% 1.5%  
55 1.3% 1.4%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.3% 99.9%  
52 96% 99.6% Median
53 2% 4%  
54 0.6% 2%  
55 0.1% 1.0%  
56 0.8% 0.8%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.1% 99.9%  
51 2% 99.8%  
52 96% 98% Median
53 0.9% 2%  
54 0.7% 0.9%  
55 0.1% 0.2%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0% 99.9%  
50 96% 99.8% Median
51 1.0% 4%  
52 0.9% 3%  
53 2% 2%  
54 0.2% 0.2%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.1% 99.9%  
39 2% 99.7%  
40 96% 98% Median
41 0.2% 2%  
42 0.1% 1.4%  
43 1.3% 1.3%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.1% 99.9%  
37 0.4% 99.8%  
38 96% 99.5% Median
39 2% 3%  
40 0.7% 0.9%  
41 0.1% 0.2%  
42 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.5% 100%  
37 0.8% 99.5%  
38 98% 98.7% Median
39 0.2% 0.9%  
40 0.5% 0.7%  
41 0.1% 0.2%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 2% 100%  
32 2% 98%  
33 96% 97% Last Result, Median
34 0.4% 0.5%  
35 0% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.8% 100%  
26 97% 99.2% Median
27 1.2% 2%  
28 0.4% 0.5%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 2% 100%  
25 0.6% 98%  
26 97% 97% Median
27 0.4% 0.6%  
28 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
29 0% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations