Opinion Poll by Ipsos for EenVandaag, 19 March 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 21.0% 19.5–22.6% 19.1–23.0% 18.7–23.4% 18.0–24.2%
Democraten 66 12.2% 10.5% 9.4–11.7% 9.1–12.1% 8.8–12.4% 8.4–13.0%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 10.4% 9.3–11.6% 9.0–12.0% 8.8–12.3% 8.3–12.9%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 10.2% 9.2–11.4% 8.9–11.8% 8.6–12.1% 8.1–12.7%
GroenLinks 9.1% 9.5% 8.5–10.7% 8.2–11.1% 8.0–11.4% 7.5–12.0%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 8.5% 7.5–9.6% 7.3–10.0% 7.0–10.3% 6.6–10.8%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 5.9% 5.1–6.9% 4.9–7.2% 4.7–7.4% 4.3–7.9%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 5.1% 4.3–6.0% 4.1–6.3% 3.9–6.5% 3.6–7.0%
50Plus 3.1% 4.6% 3.9–5.5% 3.7–5.8% 3.6–6.0% 3.3–6.5%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 4.5% 3.8–5.3% 3.6–5.6% 3.4–5.8% 3.1–6.3%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.3% 3.6–5.2% 3.4–5.4% 3.3–5.6% 3.0–6.1%
DENK 2.1% 2.5% 2.0–3.2% 1.9–3.4% 1.7–3.6% 1.5–3.9%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.2% 1.8–2.9% 1.6–3.1% 1.5–3.3% 1.3–3.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 33 32–35 30–35 30–36 28–36
Democraten 66 19 15 15–16 14–17 14–17 12–19
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 17 15–20 14–20 14–20 13–20
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 15 14–17 13–17 13–17 12–20
GroenLinks 14 14 13–16 13–16 13–16 11–17
Socialistische Partij 14 12 11–14 11–14 11–14 10–16
Forum voor Democratie 2 9 7–10 7–11 7–11 7–12
Partij van de Arbeid 9 7 6–9 6–9 6–9 6–10
50Plus 4 7 6–8 6–9 6–9 5–9
Partij voor de Dieren 5 6 5–8 5–8 5–8 4–8
ChristenUnie 5 6 5–9 4–9 4–9 4–9
DENK 3 3 3–4 2–5 2–5 2–5
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 3 2–4 2–4 2–4 2–5

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.5% 99.9%  
29 0.7% 99.4%  
30 7% 98.7%  
31 2% 92%  
32 25% 90%  
33 19% 65% Last Result, Median
34 26% 46%  
35 17% 21%  
36 4% 4%  
37 0.1% 0.2%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.5% 100%  
13 0.7% 99.5%  
14 7% 98.8%  
15 48% 92% Median
16 35% 43%  
17 7% 9%  
18 0.8% 2%  
19 1.0% 1.2% Last Result
20 0.2% 0.2%  
21 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 0.8% 99.8%  
14 6% 99.0%  
15 20% 93%  
16 9% 74%  
17 36% 65% Median
18 3% 29%  
19 6% 26%  
20 20% 20% Last Result
21 0.1% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.5% 100%  
13 8% 99.5%  
14 14% 92%  
15 40% 78% Median
16 15% 38%  
17 22% 23%  
18 0.5% 1.2%  
19 0.2% 0.7% Last Result
20 0.5% 0.5%  
21 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.2% 100%  
11 0.6% 99.8%  
12 1.5% 99.2%  
13 16% 98%  
14 51% 82% Last Result, Median
15 15% 31%  
16 14% 16%  
17 2% 2%  
18 0.1% 0.2%  
19 0% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 0.7% 99.9%  
11 46% 99.2%  
12 20% 53% Median
13 22% 33%  
14 9% 11% Last Result
15 2% 2%  
16 0.7% 0.9%  
17 0.2% 0.2%  
18 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0.1% 100%  
7 14% 99.9%  
8 10% 85%  
9 38% 75% Median
10 31% 37%  
11 5% 6%  
12 0.2% 0.7%  
13 0.5% 0.5%  
14 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.4% 100%  
6 40% 99.6%  
7 35% 60% Median
8 14% 24%  
9 9% 10% Last Result
10 0.6% 0.7%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.2% 100% Last Result
5 1.2% 99.8%  
6 24% 98.5%  
7 52% 75% Median
8 12% 22%  
9 10% 10%  
10 0.3% 0.3%  
11 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.6% 100%  
5 35% 99.4% Last Result
6 31% 65% Median
7 19% 34%  
8 14% 14%  
9 0.4% 0.4%  
10 0% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 9% 100%  
5 35% 91% Last Result
6 13% 56% Median
7 17% 44%  
8 13% 27%  
9 14% 14%  
10 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 9% 100%  
3 50% 91% Last Result, Median
4 34% 41%  
5 6% 6%  
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.2% 100%  
2 37% 99.8%  
3 40% 63% Last Result, Median
4 22% 23%  
5 0.7% 0.8%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 90 86 100% 82–87 79–87 78–87 78–88
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 85 77 92% 76–80 73–80 73–80 71–82
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 78 85% 74–80 73–80 72–80 71–82
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 74 75 27% 71–78 69–78 69–78 67–79
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 80 70 4% 68–72 67–75 67–76 67–77
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 76 70 0.1% 68–73 65–73 65–73 64–75
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 67 0% 64–71 64–71 63–71 61–72
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 66 0% 61–69 61–69 60–69 59–69
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 65 0% 62–67 62–67 60–67 58–69
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 71 64 0% 61–66 59–66 59–67 58–67
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 60 0% 58–64 57–64 56–64 55–65
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 66 58 0% 56–60 55–61 55–62 54–64
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 58 0% 55–60 54–60 53–60 51–62
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 61 55 0% 54–59 52–59 52–59 51–60
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 56 0% 53–57 53–58 53–58 51–60
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 49 0% 46–50 45–51 45–51 43–51
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 39 0% 39–43 38–43 38–43 36–44
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 47 38 0% 36–39 36–40 36–41 33–44
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 38 31 0% 29–32 29–32 29–33 26–36
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 29 0% 26–30 26–30 26–32 24–33
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 22 0% 21–24 20–24 20–25 19–27

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 5% 100%  
79 0.8% 95%  
80 1.1% 95%  
81 1.0% 94%  
82 13% 93%  
83 22% 80% Median
84 2% 58%  
85 5% 56%  
86 17% 50%  
87 32% 33%  
88 0.4% 0.7%  
89 0.1% 0.3%  
90 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.5% 100%  
71 0.4% 99.5%  
72 0.4% 99.1%  
73 5% 98.8%  
74 0.7% 94%  
75 1.2% 93%  
76 32% 92% Median, Majority
77 21% 60%  
78 14% 40%  
79 12% 26%  
80 12% 14%  
81 0.9% 2%  
82 0.7% 1.1%  
83 0.3% 0.5%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0% 99.9%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.2% 99.8%  
71 2% 99.6%  
72 2% 98%  
73 6% 96%  
74 1.4% 91%  
75 4% 89%  
76 17% 85% Majority
77 7% 68% Last Result, Median
78 23% 61%  
79 18% 38%  
80 20% 20%  
81 0.2% 0.7%  
82 0.5% 0.5%  
83 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.2% 99.8%  
67 0.2% 99.6%  
68 2% 99.4%  
69 6% 98%  
70 2% 92%  
71 1.3% 91%  
72 8% 89%  
73 5% 81%  
74 10% 76% Last Result, Median
75 40% 67%  
76 7% 27% Majority
77 0.3% 20%  
78 19% 20%  
79 0.5% 0.5%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 6% 99.8%  
68 11% 93%  
69 14% 82% Median
70 20% 68%  
71 33% 48%  
72 6% 15%  
73 3% 9%  
74 1.0% 6%  
75 1.3% 5%  
76 3% 4% Majority
77 1.0% 1.4%  
78 0.3% 0.4%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.9% 99.9%  
65 5% 99.0%  
66 0.7% 94%  
67 2% 94%  
68 7% 92%  
69 27% 84% Median
70 14% 57%  
71 5% 43%  
72 14% 38%  
73 23% 24%  
74 0.3% 0.9%  
75 0.5% 0.6%  
76 0.1% 0.1% Last Result, Majority
77 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.2% 99.9%  
61 1.2% 99.7% Last Result
62 0.5% 98.5%  
63 1.1% 98%  
64 7% 97%  
65 4% 90%  
66 1.0% 85%  
67 46% 85% Median
68 14% 39%  
69 7% 25%  
70 6% 18%  
71 11% 12%  
72 0.6% 0.8%  
73 0.1% 0.2%  
74 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.3% 99.9%  
59 0.5% 99.5%  
60 2% 99.1%  
61 10% 97%  
62 2% 87%  
63 2% 85%  
64 1.1% 83%  
65 27% 82% Median
66 26% 55%  
67 9% 29%  
68 0.3% 20%  
69 20% 20%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.2% 100%  
58 1.3% 99.7% Last Result
59 0.8% 98%  
60 0.5% 98%  
61 2% 97%  
62 10% 95%  
63 6% 86%  
64 19% 80% Median
65 36% 61%  
66 7% 25%  
67 17% 18%  
68 0.1% 1.0%  
69 0.6% 0.9%  
70 0.2% 0.2%  
71 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.3% 100%  
58 0.3% 99.6%  
59 5% 99.4%  
60 0.4% 94%  
61 4% 94%  
62 1.3% 90%  
63 22% 89% Median
64 26% 67%  
65 25% 41%  
66 11% 16%  
67 4% 5%  
68 0.2% 0.4%  
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0% 100%  
53 0.2% 99.9%  
54 0.2% 99.8%  
55 1.3% 99.5%  
56 1.1% 98%  
57 4% 97% Last Result
58 8% 94%  
59 14% 86%  
60 25% 72% Median
61 24% 46%  
62 8% 22%  
63 3% 14%  
64 11% 12%  
65 0.2% 0.6%  
66 0.4% 0.5%  
67 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 2% 99.7%  
55 6% 98%  
56 6% 92%  
57 12% 86% Median
58 33% 74%  
59 20% 42%  
60 14% 22%  
61 4% 8%  
62 2% 4%  
63 0.9% 2%  
64 0.9% 1.3%  
65 0.2% 0.4%  
66 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
67 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.2% 99.9%  
51 0.3% 99.7%  
52 1.4% 99.4%  
53 1.0% 98%  
54 2% 97% Last Result
55 8% 95%  
56 11% 87%  
57 10% 76% Median
58 44% 66%  
59 7% 22%  
60 14% 14%  
61 0.2% 0.9%  
62 0.3% 0.7%  
63 0.4% 0.4%  
64 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.1% 99.9%  
50 0.1% 99.9%  
51 0.3% 99.8%  
52 6% 99.4%  
53 1.5% 93%  
54 34% 92%  
55 14% 58% Median
56 17% 44%  
57 0.6% 27%  
58 10% 26%  
59 16% 16%  
60 0.3% 0.8%  
61 0.4% 0.5% Last Result
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.3% 99.9%  
51 1.5% 99.6%  
52 0.6% 98%  
53 11% 98%  
54 16% 87%  
55 10% 71% Median
56 37% 61%  
57 18% 23%  
58 4% 5%  
59 0.3% 1.2%  
60 0.8% 0.9%  
61 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.3% 99.9%  
43 0.3% 99.6%  
44 2% 99.3%  
45 6% 98%  
46 2% 92%  
47 14% 90%  
48 14% 76% Median
49 34% 61%  
50 21% 27%  
51 6% 7%  
52 0.1% 0.3% Last Result
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.2% 100%  
35 0.1% 99.7%  
36 0.5% 99.7%  
37 1.4% 99.1%  
38 6% 98%  
39 42% 92%  
40 21% 50% Median
41 3% 29%  
42 9% 26% Last Result
43 16% 17%  
44 0.6% 0.8%  
45 0.1% 0.2%  
46 0% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 1.0% 100%  
34 0.5% 99.0%  
35 0.4% 98%  
36 14% 98%  
37 31% 84% Median
38 27% 53%  
39 20% 27%  
40 2% 6%  
41 2% 4%  
42 1.3% 2%  
43 0.2% 0.9%  
44 0.3% 0.7%  
45 0.2% 0.3%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0% Last Result

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.5% 100%  
26 0.1% 99.5%  
27 0.7% 99.5%  
28 0.9% 98.8%  
29 12% 98%  
30 20% 85% Median
31 40% 65%  
32 21% 25%  
33 2% 3%  
34 0.4% 2%  
35 0.7% 1.5%  
36 0.4% 0.8%  
37 0.3% 0.4%  
38 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
39 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.8% 99.9%  
25 0.3% 99.1%  
26 16% 98.9%  
27 12% 83%  
28 4% 71% Median
29 37% 67%  
30 26% 30%  
31 2% 4%  
32 1.2% 3%  
33 1.0% 1.4% Last Result
34 0% 0.4%  
35 0.4% 0.4%  
36 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 1.1% 99.8%  
20 6% 98.7%  
21 21% 93%  
22 40% 72% Median
23 8% 33%  
24 21% 24%  
25 1.3% 3%  
26 1.3% 2%  
27 0.6% 0.8%  
28 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
29 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations