Opinion Poll by Peil.nl, 19–25 March 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 16.0% 15.2–16.9% 14.9–17.1% 14.7–17.4% 14.3–17.8%
GroenLinks 9.1% 10.7% 10.0–11.4% 9.8–11.6% 9.6–11.8% 9.3–12.2%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 10.7% 10.0–11.4% 9.8–11.6% 9.6–11.8% 9.3–12.2%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 10.0% 9.3–10.7% 9.1–10.9% 9.0–11.1% 8.7–11.5%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 9.3% 8.7–10.1% 8.5–10.3% 8.3–10.4% 8.0–10.8%
Democraten 66 12.2% 8.7% 8.0–9.4% 7.8–9.6% 7.7–9.7% 7.4–10.1%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 8.0% 7.4–8.7% 7.2–8.9% 7.1–9.0% 6.8–9.4%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 7.3% 6.8–8.0% 6.6–8.2% 6.4–8.3% 6.2–8.6%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 5.3% 4.8–5.9% 4.7–6.1% 4.6–6.2% 4.4–6.5%
50Plus 3.1% 4.7% 4.2–5.2% 4.1–5.3% 4.0–5.5% 3.7–5.8%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.0% 3.6–4.5% 3.4–4.6% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.0%
DENK 2.1% 3.3% 2.9–3.8% 2.8–3.9% 2.7–4.0% 2.6–4.3%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 24 23–27 23–27 22–27 22–27
GroenLinks 14 17 15–18 15–18 15–18 14–18
Forum voor Democratie 2 15 15–17 15–17 15–17 14–18
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 15 14–16 14–16 14–16 13–17
Socialistische Partij 14 14 14–15 14–15 13–15 13–16
Democraten 66 19 12 11–14 11–14 11–14 11–14
Partij van de Arbeid 9 12 11–12 11–12 11–13 10–14
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 11 9–13 9–13 9–13 9–13
Partij voor de Dieren 5 8 7–8 7–8 7–9 7–9
50Plus 4 7 6–7 6–7 6–8 6–8
ChristenUnie 5 6 5–7 5–7 5–7 5–7
DENK 3 5 5–6 4–6 4–6 4–6
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–4

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 3% 100%  
23 20% 97%  
24 43% 77% Median
25 21% 34%  
26 0.8% 13%  
27 13% 13%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0% Last Result

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.9% 100% Last Result
15 19% 99.1%  
16 1.2% 80%  
17 32% 79% Median
18 46% 46%  
19 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0.6% 100%  
15 65% 99.4% Median
16 20% 34%  
17 14% 14%  
18 0.5% 0.9%  
19 0.3% 0.3%  
20 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.7% 100%  
14 43% 99.3%  
15 26% 56% Median
16 29% 31%  
17 1.2% 1.3%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.5% 100%  
13 3% 99.5%  
14 78% 97% Last Result, Median
15 18% 19%  
16 1.4% 1.4%  
17 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 20% 100%  
12 55% 80% Median
13 4% 25%  
14 21% 22%  
15 0.2% 0.2%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 1.0% 100%  
11 13% 99.0%  
12 81% 86% Median
13 4% 5%  
14 1.0% 1.0%  
15 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 16% 100%  
10 1.0% 84%  
11 62% 83% Median
12 2% 21%  
13 19% 19%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0% Last Result

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0% 100% Last Result
6 0.2% 100%  
7 18% 99.8%  
8 78% 82% Median
9 3% 4%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 0.2% 100%  
6 14% 99.8%  
7 83% 86% Median
8 3% 3%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 21% 99.9% Last Result
6 36% 79% Median
7 44% 44%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.4% 100% Last Result
4 6% 99.6%  
5 74% 94% Median
6 19% 19%  
7 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 31% 100%  
3 67% 69% Last Result, Median
4 2% 2%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Socialistische Partij – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 80 77 79% 75–77 75–78 75–78 73–79
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 90 75 16% 72–78 72–78 72–78 71–78
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 85 69 0% 67–72 67–72 67–72 67–75
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 69 0% 67–71 67–71 67–71 66–73
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid 74 66 0% 64–69 64–69 64–69 64–70
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 63 0% 63–68 63–68 63–68 63–69
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus 58 60 0% 60–66 60–66 60–66 60–66
GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 66 62 0% 61–63 61–64 61–64 59–65
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 56 0% 56–62 56–62 56–62 55–62
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 57 0% 55–61 55–61 55–61 55–62
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 54 53 0% 53–60 53–60 53–60 53–60
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 50 0% 49–55 49–55 49–55 49–56
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 50 0% 50–54 50–54 50–54 48–54
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid 72 50 0% 49–52 49–52 48–52 47–54
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 61 48 0% 46–51 46–51 46–51 46–53
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 38 0% 38–43 38–43 37–43 37–43
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 47 38 0% 38–42 38–42 38–42 38–43
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 36 0% 35–38 35–38 35–38 32–39
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 33 0% 33 32–34 32–34 31–35
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 26 0% 26–30 26–30 26–30 26–30
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 27 0% 26–28 26–28 26–28 25–29

GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Socialistische Partij – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.2% 99.9%  
73 0.6% 99.7%  
74 0.7% 99.0%  
75 20% 98%  
76 13% 79% Median, Majority
77 59% 66%  
78 6% 7%  
79 0.8% 1.0%  
80 0% 0.2% Last Result
81 0.2% 0.2%  
82 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.2% 99.9%  
71 1.4% 99.7%  
72 19% 98%  
73 1.0% 79%  
74 2% 78% Median
75 60% 76%  
76 0.2% 16% Majority
77 4% 16%  
78 12% 12%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.2% 100%  
67 19% 99.8%  
68 0.9% 81%  
69 45% 80% Median
70 1.0% 35%  
71 5% 34%  
72 28% 30%  
73 0.4% 1.2%  
74 0% 0.8%  
75 0.8% 0.8%  
76 0% 0% Majority
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 1.3% 100%  
67 45% 98.7%  
68 3% 53% Median
69 20% 51%  
70 17% 31%  
71 12% 14%  
72 1.0% 2%  
73 0.8% 1.0%  
74 0.2% 0.2%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Majority
77 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.2% 100%  
64 47% 99.8%  
65 1.4% 53% Median
66 20% 51%  
67 1.1% 31%  
68 17% 30%  
69 13% 13%  
70 0.8% 0.8%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.2% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.8% Last Result
62 0.1% 99.8%  
63 62% 99.7%  
64 2% 38% Median
65 5% 36%  
66 17% 31%  
67 0.9% 14%  
68 12% 13%  
69 1.0% 1.0%  
70 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0% 99.9% Last Result
59 0.2% 99.8%  
60 61% 99.7%  
61 4% 39% Median
62 4% 35%  
63 0.6% 31%  
64 17% 30%  
65 1.3% 13%  
66 12% 12%  
67 0% 0%  

GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.4% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.6%  
60 0.7% 99.5%  
61 20% 98.8%  
62 30% 79% Median
63 43% 49%  
64 4% 5%  
65 0.9% 1.2%  
66 0% 0.3% Last Result
67 0.3% 0.3%  
68 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 1.2% 99.9%  
56 61% 98.6%  
57 2% 38% Last Result, Median
58 5% 37%  
59 18% 31%  
60 0.6% 14%  
61 1.4% 13%  
62 12% 12%  
63 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.2% 99.9%  
55 19% 99.7%  
56 2% 81%  
57 43% 78% Median
58 1.4% 36%  
59 5% 34%  
60 17% 29%  
61 12% 13%  
62 0.7% 0.8%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.3% 100%  
53 62% 99.7%  
54 2% 38% Last Result, Median
55 5% 36%  
56 0.9% 31%  
57 18% 30%  
58 0.7% 13%  
59 0.4% 12%  
60 12% 12%  
61 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 19% 99.9%  
50 45% 81%  
51 0.5% 36% Median
52 2% 36%  
53 1.5% 34%  
54 4% 33%  
55 28% 29%  
56 0.5% 0.5%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.7% 100%  
49 0.1% 99.3%  
50 63% 99.1%  
51 0.9% 36% Median
52 5% 35%  
53 17% 30%  
54 13% 13%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.9% 100%  
48 2% 99.1%  
49 46% 97%  
50 1.3% 51% Median
51 20% 50%  
52 28% 30%  
53 1.1% 2%  
54 0.3% 0.7%  
55 0.3% 0.3%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 19% 100%  
47 1.2% 81%  
48 45% 80% Median
49 0.8% 35%  
50 13% 34%  
51 20% 21%  
52 0.2% 1.2%  
53 0.9% 1.1%  
54 0.2% 0.2%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 3% 99.9%  
38 61% 97%  
39 1.1% 36% Median
40 5% 35%  
41 18% 30%  
42 0.4% 12%  
43 12% 12%  
44 0.3% 0.3%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.4% 100%  
38 61% 99.5%  
39 13% 39% Median
40 2% 26%  
41 6% 23%  
42 17% 17%  
43 0.6% 0.7%  
44 0% 0.1%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.6% 100%  
33 0.1% 99.4%  
34 0.4% 99.4%  
35 22% 99.0%  
36 43% 77% Median
37 21% 34%  
38 12% 13%  
39 1.4% 2%  
40 0.2% 0.3%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.2% 100%  
31 0.3% 99.7%  
32 5% 99.4%  
33 89% 95% Last Result, Median
34 3% 5%  
35 2% 2%  
36 0.3% 0.3%  
37 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.2% 100%  
25 0.2% 99.8%  
26 61% 99.5%  
27 2% 39% Median
28 14% 37%  
29 6% 23%  
30 17% 17%  
31 0.2% 0.2%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.4% 99.9%  
26 43% 99.4%  
27 35% 56% Median
28 20% 21% Last Result
29 1.2% 1.4%  
30 0.2% 0.2%  
31 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations