Opinion Poll by Peil.nl, 16–22 April 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 16.7% 15.8–17.6% 15.6–17.8% 15.4–18.0% 15.0–18.5%
GroenLinks 9.1% 10.7% 10.0–11.4% 9.8–11.6% 9.6–11.8% 9.3–12.2%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 10.0% 9.3–10.7% 9.1–10.9% 9.0–11.1% 8.7–11.5%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 10.0% 9.3–10.7% 9.1–10.9% 9.0–11.1% 8.7–11.5%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 9.3% 8.7–10.1% 8.5–10.3% 8.3–10.4% 8.0–10.8%
Democraten 66 12.2% 8.7% 8.0–9.4% 7.8–9.6% 7.7–9.7% 7.4–10.1%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 8.0% 7.4–8.7% 7.2–8.9% 7.1–9.0% 6.8–9.4%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 7.3% 6.8–8.0% 6.6–8.2% 6.4–8.3% 6.2–8.6%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 5.3% 4.8–5.9% 4.7–6.1% 4.6–6.2% 4.4–6.5%
50Plus 3.1% 4.7% 4.2–5.2% 4.1–5.3% 4.0–5.5% 3.7–5.8%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.0% 3.6–4.5% 3.4–4.6% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.0%
DENK 2.1% 3.3% 2.9–3.8% 2.8–3.9% 2.7–4.0% 2.6–4.3%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 26 24–26 23–26 23–26 23–27
GroenLinks 14 16 15–17 15–17 15–17 14–18
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 15 15–16 14–16 14–16 14–17
Forum voor Democratie 2 15 14–16 14–16 14–16 14–17
Socialistische Partij 14 15 14–15 13–15 12–15 12–16
Democraten 66 19 13 13–16 13–16 12–16 11–16
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 11 11–13 10–14 10–14 10–14
Partij van de Arbeid 9 10 10–12 10–12 10–12 9–14
Partij voor de Dieren 5 8 7–8 7–8 7–8 7–9
50Plus 4 8 6–8 6–8 6–8 6–8
ChristenUnie 5 6 5–6 5–7 4–7 4–7
DENK 3 5 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–6
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–4

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 9% 99.9%  
24 33% 91%  
25 2% 59%  
26 54% 56% Median
27 2% 2%  
28 0% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0% Last Result

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 2% 100% Last Result
15 39% 98%  
16 10% 59% Median
17 46% 49%  
18 2% 2%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 8% 99.9%  
15 74% 92% Median
16 18% 18%  
17 0.5% 0.6%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0.1% 100%  
14 47% 99.9%  
15 38% 53% Median
16 13% 15%  
17 2% 2%  
18 0.2% 0.3%  
19 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 3% 100%  
13 5% 97%  
14 22% 92% Last Result
15 68% 70% Median
16 2% 2%  
17 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 2% 100%  
12 2% 98%  
13 49% 96% Median
14 14% 46%  
15 8% 33%  
16 25% 25%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 6% 100%  
11 44% 94% Median
12 33% 49%  
13 11% 16%  
14 5% 5%  
15 0.3% 0.3%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 2% 100% Last Result
10 52% 98% Median
11 35% 45%  
12 8% 10%  
13 2% 2%  
14 0.5% 0.5%  
15 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0% 100% Last Result
6 0.1% 100%  
7 11% 99.9%  
8 87% 89% Median
9 2% 2%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 0.1% 100%  
6 30% 99.9%  
7 17% 70%  
8 53% 53% Median
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 3% 100%  
5 30% 97% Last Result
6 60% 67% Median
7 7% 7%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100% Last Result
4 17% 99.9%  
5 82% 83% Median
6 2% 2%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 49% 100%  
3 50% 51% Last Result, Median
4 0.8% 0.8%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 90 77 59% 74–77 73–78 73–78 73–79
GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Socialistische Partij – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 80 76 87% 75–77 74–77 72–77 71–78
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 85 70 0% 70–71 68–73 68–73 67–73
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 68 0% 68–71 68–73 68–73 66–74
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid 74 66 0% 66–69 65–70 65–70 64–72
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 65 0% 63–66 62–69 62–69 60–69
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 63 0% 60–64 59–66 59–66 58–67
GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 66 61 0% 61–62 61–63 60–63 59–63
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 60 0% 58–60 58–63 57–63 55–63
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 57 0% 57–59 55–61 55–61 53–62
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 55 0% 54–57 52–58 52–58 51–60
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 54 0% 53–55 52–56 52–56 50–57
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid 72 52 0% 51–53 50–54 50–55 50–55
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 51 0% 50–52 49–52 49–54 49–54
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 61 49 0% 49–51 48–51 48–51 46–53
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 47 39 0% 38–42 38–42 38–42 37–43
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 41 0% 39–42 37–42 37–42 37–43
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 36 0% 35–36 35–37 35–38 33–40
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 31 0% 31–33 31–33 30–33 30–35
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 29 0% 28–31 28–31 27–31 26–31
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 26 0% 25–27 25–27 25–28 25–29

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.3% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.7%  
73 8% 99.6%  
74 6% 92%  
75 27% 86%  
76 7% 59% Median, Majority
77 44% 52%  
78 8% 8%  
79 0.7% 0.8%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result

GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Socialistische Partij – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 1.0% 100%  
72 2% 99.0%  
73 0.6% 97%  
74 4% 97%  
75 6% 93% Median
76 55% 87% Majority
77 31% 32%  
78 0.8% 0.9%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.3% 100%  
67 0.5% 99.7%  
68 4% 99.2%  
69 4% 95%  
70 50% 91% Median
71 32% 42%  
72 1.4% 10%  
73 8% 8%  
74 0.2% 0.3%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0% Majority
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.6% 100%  
67 0.2% 99.4%  
68 50% 99.2%  
69 26% 49%  
70 7% 23% Median
71 7% 16%  
72 2% 10%  
73 6% 7%  
74 2% 2%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0% Majority
77 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.6% 100%  
65 7% 99.4%  
66 68% 92%  
67 6% 24% Median
68 8% 18%  
69 3% 10%  
70 6% 7%  
71 0.2% 2%  
72 2% 2%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.6% 100%  
61 0% 99.4% Last Result
62 7% 99.4%  
63 25% 93%  
64 2% 68%  
65 51% 66%  
66 5% 14%  
67 2% 10% Median
68 0.2% 7%  
69 7% 7%  
70 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.6% 100% Last Result
59 6% 99.4%  
60 25% 93%  
61 2% 68%  
62 8% 66%  
63 47% 58%  
64 4% 11% Median
65 0.2% 8%  
66 6% 7%  
67 2% 2%  
68 0% 0%  

GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.2% 100%  
58 0.1% 99.8%  
59 1.2% 99.7%  
60 2% 98.5% Median
61 52% 96%  
62 39% 45%  
63 5% 6%  
64 0.1% 0.3%  
65 0.1% 0.2%  
66 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
67 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.5% 100%  
56 0.2% 99.5%  
57 4% 99.3%  
58 8% 96%  
59 3% 87%  
60 76% 85% Median
61 2% 9%  
62 1.0% 7%  
63 6% 6%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.6% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.4%  
55 6% 99.3%  
56 0.2% 93%  
57 70% 93% Last Result
58 8% 23%  
59 5% 15% Median
60 2% 10%  
61 6% 8%  
62 2% 2%  
63 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.6% 100%  
52 7% 99.4%  
53 0.1% 93%  
54 26% 93% Last Result
55 51% 67%  
56 4% 15% Median
57 3% 11%  
58 6% 8%  
59 0.2% 2%  
60 2% 2%  
61 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.5% 100%  
51 1.0% 99.5%  
52 8% 98%  
53 5% 90%  
54 48% 85% Median
55 31% 37%  
56 6% 6%  
57 0.7% 0.7%  
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.1% 99.9%  
50 8% 99.9%  
51 26% 92%  
52 53% 66% Median
53 3% 13%  
54 5% 9%  
55 5% 5%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0% 100%  
48 0.2% 99.9%  
49 8% 99.8%  
50 27% 91%  
51 53% 65% Median
52 8% 12%  
53 1.2% 4%  
54 3% 3%  
55 0.1% 0.2%  
56 0% 0.1%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 1.4% 100%  
47 1.0% 98.5%  
48 5% 98%  
49 50% 92% Median
50 15% 43%  
51 26% 28%  
52 1.1% 2%  
53 0.9% 1.0%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.3% 100%  
37 0.4% 99.7%  
38 47% 99.2% Median
39 3% 53%  
40 13% 49%  
41 10% 37%  
42 25% 26%  
43 0.9% 0.9%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 7% 100%  
38 0.4% 93%  
39 27% 92%  
40 9% 65%  
41 46% 57% Median
42 8% 10%  
43 2% 2%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 1.2% 100%  
34 0.3% 98.7%  
35 42% 98%  
36 51% 56% Median
37 2% 6%  
38 3% 4%  
39 0.1% 0.7%  
40 0.5% 0.6%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.2% 100%  
30 3% 99.7%  
31 72% 97% Median
32 10% 24%  
33 13% 15% Last Result
34 0.8% 2%  
35 1.0% 1.1%  
36 0% 0.1%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.8% 99.9%  
27 3% 99.0%  
28 44% 96% Median
29 17% 52%  
30 11% 36%  
31 25% 25%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.3% 99.9%  
25 48% 99.6% Median
26 41% 52%  
27 8% 11%  
28 2% 3% Last Result
29 0.6% 0.7%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations