Opinion Poll by Ipsos for EenVandaag, 20–23 April 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 21.7% 20.2–23.3% 19.8–23.8% 19.4–24.2% 18.8–25.0%
GroenLinks 9.1% 11.6% 10.5–12.9% 10.2–13.3% 9.9–13.6% 9.4–14.3%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 9.8% 8.7–11.0% 8.4–11.3% 8.2–11.6% 7.7–12.2%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 9.4% 8.4–10.6% 8.1–10.9% 7.9–11.2% 7.4–11.8%
Democraten 66 12.2% 9.4% 8.4–10.6% 8.1–10.9% 7.9–11.2% 7.4–11.8%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 8.2% 7.3–9.3% 7.0–9.6% 6.8–9.9% 6.3–10.5%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 6.4% 5.6–7.4% 5.3–7.7% 5.2–8.0% 4.8–8.5%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 5.2% 4.5–6.2% 4.3–6.4% 4.1–6.7% 3.7–7.1%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.7% 4.0–5.6% 3.8–5.9% 3.6–6.1% 3.3–6.5%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 4.5% 3.8–5.4% 3.6–5.7% 3.5–5.9% 3.2–6.3%
50Plus 3.1% 4.1% 3.4–5.0% 3.3–5.2% 3.1–5.4% 2.8–5.8%
DENK 2.1% 2.5% 2.0–3.2% 1.8–3.4% 1.7–3.6% 1.5–3.9%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.0% 1.5–2.6% 1.4–2.8% 1.3–2.9% 1.1–3.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 33 30–36 29–36 29–37 28–39
GroenLinks 14 18 15–21 15–21 14–21 14–21
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 14 14–16 13–18 13–18 12–18
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 14 13–16 12–17 11–17 11–18
Democraten 66 19 15 12–16 12–16 11–17 11–17
Socialistische Partij 14 12 10–14 10–14 10–14 10–15
Forum voor Democratie 2 9 8–10 8–11 7–11 7–12
Partij van de Arbeid 9 9 6–10 6–10 6–10 5–10
ChristenUnie 5 7 6–8 6–9 5–10 5–10
Partij voor de Dieren 5 7 5–8 5–8 5–9 4–9
50Plus 4 6 4–7 4–8 4–8 4–8
DENK 3 3 2–4 2–4 2–5 2–5
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 3 2–3 2–4 2–5 1–5

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.8% 99.8%  
29 6% 99.0%  
30 4% 93%  
31 3% 89%  
32 5% 85%  
33 32% 80% Last Result, Median
34 4% 48%  
35 32% 44%  
36 9% 12%  
37 2% 3%  
38 0.5% 1.1%  
39 0.2% 0.6%  
40 0.4% 0.4%  
41 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 4% 99.9% Last Result
15 7% 96%  
16 24% 89%  
17 14% 65%  
18 10% 50% Median
19 3% 40%  
20 4% 37%  
21 34% 34%  
22 0.1% 0.2%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.3% 100%  
12 2% 99.7%  
13 4% 98%  
14 48% 94% Median
15 22% 46%  
16 14% 24%  
17 5% 10%  
18 5% 5%  
19 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
20 0% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 0.3% 99.9%  
11 4% 99.6%  
12 3% 95%  
13 35% 92%  
14 19% 57% Median
15 11% 38%  
16 22% 27%  
17 4% 6%  
18 1.3% 1.5%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0.1% Last Result
21 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.3% 100%  
11 3% 99.7%  
12 25% 97%  
13 3% 73%  
14 15% 70%  
15 42% 55% Median
16 8% 13%  
17 4% 4%  
18 0.3% 0.5%  
19 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
20 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.3% 100%  
10 29% 99.7%  
11 13% 71%  
12 25% 58% Median
13 22% 32%  
14 8% 10% Last Result
15 2% 2%  
16 0.3% 0.5%  
17 0.2% 0.2%  
18 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0.2% 100%  
7 3% 99.8%  
8 16% 97%  
9 52% 81% Median
10 22% 29%  
11 5% 7%  
12 2% 2%  
13 0.3% 0.3%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 2% 100%  
6 12% 98%  
7 17% 86%  
8 18% 70%  
9 32% 52% Last Result, Median
10 19% 19%  
11 0.4% 0.5%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.4% 100%  
5 3% 99.6% Last Result
6 12% 97%  
7 64% 85% Median
8 12% 21%  
9 6% 9%  
10 3% 3%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.9% 100%  
5 12% 99.1% Last Result
6 9% 87%  
7 60% 78% Median
8 14% 18%  
9 4% 4%  
10 0.1% 0.2%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100%  
4 10% 99.9% Last Result
5 34% 90%  
6 18% 56% Median
7 31% 38%  
8 6% 6%  
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 16% 100%  
3 40% 84% Last Result, Median
4 41% 45%  
5 3% 3%  
6 0.4% 0.4%  
7 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 2% 100%  
2 39% 98%  
3 50% 59% Last Result, Median
4 7% 9%  
5 3% 3%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 90 88 100% 84–92 81–94 81–94 80–94
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 85 78 87% 74–81 72–81 72–82 71–85
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 74 40% 71–78 70–78 70–80 68–81
GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 80 75 47% 71–77 71–78 69–78 67–79
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie 74 72 3% 69–75 68–75 67–76 65–79
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 69 2% 66–73 63–73 63–74 63–77
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 66 0% 64–69 63–70 62–70 60–72
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 64 0% 61–66 60–66 59–68 57–69
GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 66 62 0% 59–66 58–67 57–67 54–67
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid 72 64 0% 59–65 58–65 57–67 56–69
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 62 0% 59–66 57–66 56–67 56–69
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 60 0% 57–65 57–65 56–65 54–65
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 58 0% 54–62 54–62 53–62 52–63
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 56 0% 53–59 53–59 51–60 50–62
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 61 57 0% 52–58 50–58 50–59 49–61
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 49 0% 46–52 44–52 44–52 43–54
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 42 0% 38–45 37–45 36–45 36–46
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 47 38 0% 35–39 34–41 32–42 31–42
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 29 0% 26–31 26–33 26–34 25–34
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 30 0% 28–32 28–32 27–33 25–34
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 23 0% 21–24 20–25 19–26 19–27

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0.1% 100%  
79 0.2% 99.9%  
80 0.9% 99.7%  
81 5% 98.9%  
82 0.1% 94%  
83 1.1% 94%  
84 21% 93%  
85 5% 71%  
86 8% 66%  
87 4% 58% Median
88 5% 54%  
89 2% 50%  
90 35% 48% Last Result
91 1.1% 12%  
92 1.4% 11%  
93 1.0% 10%  
94 9% 9%  
95 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.2% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.7%  
71 1.4% 99.6%  
72 5% 98%  
73 2% 93%  
74 1.3% 91%  
75 3% 90%  
76 5% 87% Majority
77 6% 82%  
78 48% 76% Median
79 10% 29%  
80 6% 18%  
81 9% 12%  
82 0.5% 3%  
83 1.3% 2%  
84 0.4% 1.1%  
85 0.6% 0.7% Last Result
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.4% 100%  
68 0.3% 99.6%  
69 2% 99.2%  
70 3% 98%  
71 6% 95%  
72 26% 89%  
73 4% 63% Median
74 12% 59%  
75 8% 48%  
76 20% 40% Majority
77 6% 19% Last Result
78 9% 13%  
79 0.4% 5%  
80 3% 5%  
81 1.1% 1.2%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0% 99.9%  
67 0.8% 99.9%  
68 0.5% 99.1%  
69 2% 98.6%  
70 0.6% 97%  
71 22% 96%  
72 5% 74%  
73 11% 69%  
74 8% 58%  
75 3% 50% Median
76 33% 47% Majority
77 4% 13%  
78 9% 10%  
79 0.6% 0.7%  
80 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
81 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.3% 99.9%  
65 1.3% 99.7%  
66 0.6% 98%  
67 1.4% 98%  
68 6% 96%  
69 28% 90%  
70 1.0% 62% Median
71 3% 61%  
72 13% 57%  
73 9% 44%  
74 19% 35% Last Result
75 13% 15%  
76 0.4% 3% Majority
77 0.9% 2%  
78 0.2% 1.3%  
79 1.1% 1.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0% 99.9%  
62 0.2% 99.8%  
63 5% 99.6%  
64 0.4% 95%  
65 1.4% 94%  
66 3% 93%  
67 2% 90%  
68 21% 88%  
69 29% 67% Median
70 4% 38%  
71 6% 34%  
72 4% 28%  
73 20% 24%  
74 1.3% 4%  
75 0.6% 2%  
76 0.8% 2% Last Result, Majority
77 1.0% 1.0%  
78 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.4% 100%  
60 0.3% 99.6%  
61 0.4% 99.3% Last Result
62 2% 99.0%  
63 3% 97%  
64 31% 94%  
65 3% 63% Median
66 13% 60%  
67 25% 47%  
68 5% 22%  
69 12% 17%  
70 4% 6%  
71 0.6% 2%  
72 0.9% 1.1%  
73 0.1% 0.2%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.5% 100%  
57 0.1% 99.5%  
58 0.4% 99.4% Last Result
59 2% 99.0%  
60 3% 97%  
61 30% 94%  
62 4% 64% Median
63 6% 60%  
64 13% 55%  
65 24% 42%  
66 13% 18%  
67 2% 5%  
68 1.4% 3%  
69 1.3% 1.5%  
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.9% 100%  
55 0.3% 99.1%  
56 0.1% 98.8%  
57 3% 98.7%  
58 4% 96%  
59 19% 92%  
60 11% 73%  
61 8% 62%  
62 9% 53%  
63 4% 45% Median
64 5% 41%  
65 2% 36%  
66 25% 34% Last Result
67 9% 9%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.3% 99.9%  
56 0.7% 99.7%  
57 1.5% 99.0%  
58 6% 97%  
59 3% 91%  
60 27% 89%  
61 3% 61% Median
62 2% 59%  
63 6% 56%  
64 16% 51%  
65 30% 35%  
66 2% 5%  
67 1.0% 3%  
68 0.5% 2%  
69 1.2% 1.2%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.2% 99.8%  
56 4% 99.6%  
57 1.1% 96%  
58 3% 95%  
59 2% 92%  
60 2% 90%  
61 21% 87%  
62 28% 66% Median
63 5% 39%  
64 9% 34%  
65 10% 25%  
66 11% 15%  
67 2% 4%  
68 1.2% 2%  
69 0.4% 0.6%  
70 0.2% 0.2%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.6% 100%  
55 2% 99.4%  
56 1.3% 98%  
57 7% 96% Last Result
58 4% 90%  
59 29% 86% Median
60 29% 57%  
61 7% 28%  
62 4% 21%  
63 4% 17%  
64 0.7% 13%  
65 12% 12%  
66 0.1% 0.4%  
67 0.2% 0.3%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.2% 100%  
51 0.2% 99.8%  
52 2% 99.5%  
53 0.7% 98%  
54 8% 97% Last Result
55 1.4% 89%  
56 29% 88% Median
57 7% 59%  
58 30% 52%  
59 5% 22%  
60 4% 18%  
61 3% 13%  
62 9% 10%  
63 0.9% 1.2%  
64 0.2% 0.3%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.3% 100%  
50 0.3% 99.7%  
51 2% 99.3%  
52 2% 97%  
53 9% 96%  
54 4% 86%  
55 4% 82%  
56 28% 78% Median
57 6% 49%  
58 20% 43%  
59 20% 23%  
60 0.5% 3%  
61 1.1% 2% Last Result
62 0.7% 0.9%  
63 0.2% 0.2%  
64 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 2% 99.8%  
50 6% 98%  
51 0.5% 92%  
52 2% 91%  
53 3% 89%  
54 3% 86%  
55 8% 83%  
56 17% 75%  
57 45% 59% Median
58 11% 13%  
59 1.1% 3%  
60 1.0% 2%  
61 0.4% 0.6% Last Result
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 0.2% 99.8%  
43 1.2% 99.6%  
44 5% 98%  
45 3% 94%  
46 6% 90%  
47 29% 84% Median
48 3% 55%  
49 21% 52%  
50 17% 31%  
51 3% 14%  
52 9% 11% Last Result
53 2% 2%  
54 0.4% 0.7%  
55 0.2% 0.3%  
56 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 3% 99.9%  
37 2% 97%  
38 9% 95%  
39 2% 86%  
40 10% 84%  
41 4% 74%  
42 37% 70% Last Result, Median
43 11% 33%  
44 3% 22%  
45 18% 19%  
46 0.7% 1.0%  
47 0.2% 0.3%  
48 0.2% 0.2%  
49 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.5% 100%  
32 2% 99.4%  
33 0.4% 97%  
34 3% 97%  
35 4% 94%  
36 34% 90%  
37 4% 56%  
38 40% 52% Median
39 3% 12%  
40 3% 9%  
41 2% 5%  
42 3% 3%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.3% 99.9%  
25 2% 99.6%  
26 19% 98%  
27 8% 79%  
28 3% 71%  
29 31% 68% Median
30 21% 37%  
31 7% 16%  
32 3% 9%  
33 1.4% 6%  
34 4% 4%  
35 0.2% 0.2%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.2% 99.9%  
25 0.4% 99.8%  
26 1.1% 99.4%  
27 2% 98%  
28 6% 96%  
29 16% 90%  
30 31% 74% Median
31 33% 43%  
32 7% 11%  
33 2% 4% Last Result
34 0.9% 1.2%  
35 0.2% 0.3%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.3% 99.9%  
19 3% 99.6%  
20 2% 97%  
21 6% 94%  
22 15% 89%  
23 39% 74% Median
24 27% 35%  
25 3% 8%  
26 4% 5%  
27 0.8% 1.0%  
28 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
29 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations