Opinion Poll by Peil.nl, 30 April–6 May 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 16.0% 15.2–16.9% 14.9–17.1% 14.7–17.4% 14.3–17.8%
GroenLinks 9.1% 11.3% 10.6–12.1% 10.4–12.3% 10.2–12.5% 9.9–12.9%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 10.7% 10.0–11.4% 9.8–11.6% 9.6–11.8% 9.3–12.2%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 10.0% 9.3–10.7% 9.1–10.9% 9.0–11.1% 8.7–11.5%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 8.7% 8.0–9.4% 7.8–9.6% 7.7–9.7% 7.4–10.1%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 8.7% 8.0–9.4% 7.8–9.6% 7.7–9.7% 7.4–10.1%
Democraten 66 12.2% 8.0% 7.4–8.7% 7.2–8.9% 7.1–9.0% 6.8–9.4%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 8.0% 7.4–8.7% 7.2–8.9% 7.1–9.0% 6.8–9.4%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 5.3% 4.8–5.9% 4.7–6.1% 4.6–6.2% 4.4–6.5%
50Plus 3.1% 4.7% 4.2–5.2% 4.1–5.3% 4.0–5.5% 3.7–5.8%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 3.3% 2.9–3.8% 2.8–3.9% 2.7–4.0% 2.6–4.3%
DENK 2.1% 3.3% 2.9–3.8% 2.8–3.9% 2.7–4.0% 2.6–4.3%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 26 26 23–26 21–26 21–27
GroenLinks 14 17 17 17 16–17 16–19
Forum voor Democratie 2 17 17 16–17 15–17 14–18
Socialistische Partij 14 14 14 14–17 14–17 14–17
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 13 13 13 12–13 12–15
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 12 12 12–14 12–14 12–14
Democraten 66 19 11 11 11–13 11–13 11–14
Partij van de Arbeid 9 11 11 11 11–12 10–13
Partij voor de Dieren 5 8 8 8–9 8–9 6–9
50Plus 4 7 7 7 6–7 6–8
ChristenUnie 5 5 5 5 4–5 4–6
DENK 3 5 5 5 4–5 4–6
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 4 4 3–4 2–4 2–4

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 4% 100%  
22 0.2% 96%  
23 1.2% 96%  
24 2% 95%  
25 2% 93%  
26 91% 91% Median
27 0.5% 0.5%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0% Last Result

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0% 100% Last Result
15 0.3% 100%  
16 2% 99.7%  
17 95% 97% Median
18 0.8% 2%  
19 1.3% 1.4%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0.6% 100%  
15 2% 99.4%  
16 5% 97%  
17 91% 92% Median
18 1.0% 1.0%  
19 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 92% 99.9% Last Result, Median
15 1.2% 8%  
16 2% 7%  
17 5% 6%  
18 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 3% 99.9%  
13 96% 97% Median
14 0.6% 1.1%  
15 0.5% 0.5%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.2% 100%  
12 92% 99.8% Median
13 3% 8%  
14 5% 5%  
15 0.2% 0.2%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.3% 100%  
11 91% 99.7% Median
12 3% 9%  
13 5% 5%  
14 0.4% 0.6%  
15 0.2% 0.2%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 0.6% 100%  
11 96% 99.4% Median
12 2% 4%  
13 2% 2%  
14 0.2% 0.2%  
15 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0% 100% Last Result
6 0.5% 100%  
7 1.2% 99.5%  
8 92% 98% Median
9 6% 7%  
10 0.4% 0.4%  
11 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 0.3% 100%  
6 5% 99.7%  
7 93% 95% Median
8 2% 2%  
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.4% 100%  
4 2% 99.6%  
5 97% 97% Last Result, Median
6 0.6% 0.6%  
7 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100% Last Result
4 3% 99.9%  
5 96% 97% Median
6 0.7% 0.7%  
7 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 3% 100%  
3 7% 97% Last Result
4 91% 91% Median
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 80 70 5% 70 70–76 70–77 70–77
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 72 0% 72 67–72 67–72 67–72
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 90 71 0.2% 71 70–71 70–71 68–75
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid 74 68 0% 68 65–68 64–68 64–69
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 85 65 0% 65 64–65 64–67 62–69
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 66 0% 66 62–66 60–66 60–66
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus 58 62 0% 62 59–62 57–62 57–62
GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 66 56 0% 56 56–60 56–60 56–62
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 59 0% 59 55–59 54–59 54–59
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 54 55 0% 55 53–55 51–55 51–55
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 54 0% 54 53–54 53–54 52–57
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid 72 51 0% 51 48–51 48–51 48–53
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 49 0% 49 48–49 46–51 45–51
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 49 0% 49 48–49 48–50 47–52
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 61 48 0% 48 46–48 45–50 45–51
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 38 0% 38 36–38 35–38 35–40
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 47 34 0% 34 34–38 34–38 34–39
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 37 0% 37 35–37 32–37 32–38
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 28 0% 28 28–30 28–30 27–31
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 23 0% 23 23–26 23–27 23–27
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 23 0% 23 23–25 23–25 22–26

GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.2% 100%  
70 90% 99.8% Median
71 0.1% 9%  
72 0.7% 9%  
73 0.1% 9%  
74 2% 8%  
75 2% 7%  
76 0.3% 5% Majority
77 5% 5%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.3% 100%  
67 6% 99.7%  
68 0.4% 94%  
69 1.2% 93%  
70 1.1% 92%  
71 0.1% 91%  
72 91% 91% Median
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Majority
77 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.5% 99.9%  
69 0.3% 99.4%  
70 6% 99.1%  
71 91% 93% Median
72 0.4% 2%  
73 0.4% 2%  
74 0.6% 1.2%  
75 0.4% 0.6%  
76 0.2% 0.2% Majority
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.3% 100%  
64 4% 99.7%  
65 2% 96%  
66 1.3% 93%  
67 0.2% 92%  
68 91% 92% Median
69 0.4% 0.6%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.6% 100%  
63 0.3% 99.4%  
64 5% 99.0%  
65 91% 94% Median
66 0.4% 3%  
67 1.5% 3%  
68 0.8% 2%  
69 0.5% 0.8%  
70 0% 0.2%  
71 0% 0.2%  
72 0.2% 0.2%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Majority
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 4% 99.9%  
61 0.5% 96% Last Result
62 0.9% 95%  
63 2% 95%  
64 2% 92%  
65 0.2% 91%  
66 91% 91% Median
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 4% 100%  
58 0.2% 96% Last Result
59 0.8% 96%  
60 1.1% 95%  
61 2% 94%  
62 91% 91% Median
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 91% 99.8% Median
57 0.1% 9%  
58 2% 9%  
59 0.7% 7%  
60 5% 6%  
61 0.3% 0.9%  
62 0.2% 0.5%  
63 0.4% 0.4%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0% 99.9%  
54 5% 99.9%  
55 2% 95%  
56 2% 94%  
57 1.4% 92% Last Result
58 0.1% 91%  
59 91% 91% Median
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 4% 99.9%  
52 0.4% 96%  
53 3% 95%  
54 1.1% 92% Last Result
55 91% 91% Median
56 0% 0.1%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 1.3% 99.8%  
53 5% 98.6%  
54 92% 94% Median
55 0.1% 2%  
56 0.5% 1.4%  
57 0.7% 0.9%  
58 0.1% 0.2%  
59 0% 0.2%  
60 0.2% 0.2%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 5% 99.9%  
49 0.5% 95%  
50 2% 94%  
51 91% 92% Median
52 0.8% 1.3%  
53 0.1% 0.5%  
54 0.4% 0.4%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.6% 100%  
46 4% 99.4%  
47 0.3% 95%  
48 1.0% 95%  
49 91% 94% Median
50 0.2% 3%  
51 2% 3%  
52 0.2% 0.5%  
53 0.2% 0.2%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.8% 99.9%  
48 5% 99.1%  
49 92% 95% Median
50 1.4% 3%  
51 0.7% 1.4%  
52 0.5% 0.7%  
53 0% 0.2%  
54 0% 0.2%  
55 0.2% 0.2%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 5% 100%  
46 0.5% 95%  
47 0.5% 95%  
48 91% 94% Median
49 0.4% 3%  
50 2% 3%  
51 0.2% 0.5%  
52 0.1% 0.3%  
53 0.2% 0.2%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 5% 99.9%  
36 0.7% 95%  
37 1.4% 95%  
38 92% 93% Median
39 0.6% 1.1%  
40 0.3% 0.5%  
41 0.2% 0.2%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 91% 100% Median
35 0.6% 9%  
36 0.3% 8%  
37 1.2% 8%  
38 6% 7%  
39 0.8% 1.1%  
40 0.3% 0.4%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 4% 100%  
33 0.6% 96%  
34 0.4% 95%  
35 1.1% 95%  
36 0.7% 94%  
37 91% 93% Median
38 2% 2%  
39 0.4% 0.5%  
40 0% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.8% 100%  
28 91% 99.2% Median
29 1.1% 8%  
30 6% 7%  
31 0.8% 1.2%  
32 0.2% 0.4%  
33 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
34 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100%  
23 91% 99.9% Median
24 2% 9%  
25 2% 8%  
26 0.6% 6%  
27 5% 5%  
28 0.4% 0.4%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.6% 100%  
23 91% 99.4% Median
24 0.5% 8%  
25 5% 8%  
26 2% 2%  
27 0.4% 0.5%  
28 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations