Opinion Poll by Peil.nl, 21–27 May 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 17.3% 16.5–18.3% 16.2–18.5% 16.0–18.7% 15.6–19.2%
GroenLinks 9.1% 11.3% 10.6–12.1% 10.4–12.3% 10.2–12.5% 9.9–12.9%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 10.7% 10.0–11.4% 9.8–11.6% 9.6–11.8% 9.3–12.2%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 8.7% 8.0–9.4% 7.8–9.6% 7.7–9.7% 7.4–10.1%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 8.7% 8.0–9.4% 7.8–9.6% 7.7–9.7% 7.4–10.1%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 8.7% 8.0–9.4% 7.8–9.6% 7.7–9.7% 7.4–10.1%
Democraten 66 12.2% 8.0% 7.4–8.7% 7.2–8.9% 7.1–9.0% 6.8–9.4%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 8.0% 7.4–8.7% 7.2–8.9% 7.1–9.0% 6.8–9.4%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 5.3% 4.8–5.9% 4.7–6.1% 4.6–6.2% 4.4–6.5%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.0% 3.6–4.5% 3.4–4.6% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.0%
50Plus 3.1% 4.0% 3.6–4.5% 3.4–4.6% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.0%
DENK 2.1% 3.3% 2.9–3.8% 2.8–3.9% 2.7–4.0% 2.6–4.3%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 26 24–27 24–28 24–28 24–29
GroenLinks 14 18 16–18 14–18 14–19 14–19
Forum voor Democratie 2 17 15–18 15–18 15–19 14–19
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 13 12–13 12–14 12–15 11–15
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 13 12–15 12–15 12–15 12–15
Socialistische Partij 14 13 13–15 13–15 12–15 11–16
Democraten 66 19 12 10–13 10–13 10–13 10–13
Partij van de Arbeid 9 12 11–13 10–13 10–14 10–14
Partij voor de Dieren 5 8 6–9 6–9 6–9 6–9
ChristenUnie 5 6 5–6 5–6 4–7 4–8
50Plus 4 6 5–7 4–7 4–7 4–8
DENK 3 5 4–5 4–6 4–6 4–6
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 3 2–3 2–4 2–4 2–4

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.3% 100%  
24 34% 99.7%  
25 2% 66%  
26 27% 64% Median
27 32% 38%  
28 3% 5%  
29 2% 2%  
30 0.2% 0.2%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0% Last Result

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 6% 100% Last Result
15 4% 94%  
16 3% 90%  
17 30% 87%  
18 53% 57% Median
19 4% 4%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0.1% 100%  
14 2% 99.9%  
15 15% 98%  
16 27% 82%  
17 11% 55% Median
18 40% 44%  
19 4% 4%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 2% 100%  
12 34% 98%  
13 58% 64% Median
14 3% 6%  
15 3% 3%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.4% 100%  
12 16% 99.6%  
13 46% 83% Median
14 23% 38%  
15 15% 15%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 2% 100%  
12 2% 98%  
13 54% 96% Median
14 7% 42% Last Result
15 33% 35%  
16 2% 2%  
17 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 22% 100%  
11 21% 78%  
12 41% 56% Median
13 15% 16%  
14 0.4% 0.4%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 5% 100%  
11 6% 95%  
12 49% 88% Median
13 36% 39%  
14 3% 3%  
15 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0% 100% Last Result
6 15% 100%  
7 26% 85%  
8 32% 59% Median
9 26% 27%  
10 0.5% 0.5%  
11 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 4% 100%  
5 41% 96% Last Result
6 51% 56% Median
7 4% 5%  
8 1.1% 1.1%  
9 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 5% 100% Last Result
5 33% 95%  
6 41% 62% Median
7 21% 21%  
8 0.5% 0.5%  
9 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100% Last Result
4 49% 99.9%  
5 44% 51% Median
6 7% 7%  
7 0.3% 0.3%  
8 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 20% 100%  
3 73% 80% Last Result, Median
4 7% 7%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Socialistische Partij – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 80 73 14% 72–79 71–79 70–79 69–79
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 90 74 7% 71–75 71–76 71–77 71–78
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 71 0.1% 69–74 69–74 68–74 68–75
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 85 69 0% 65–71 65–72 65–73 65–73
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid 74 68 0% 67–71 67–71 66–71 66–72
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 65 0% 61–66 61–67 61–67 60–68
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus 58 62 0% 59–63 59–64 59–64 58–64
GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 66 60 0% 59–64 58–64 56–64 56–64
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 59 0% 56–61 56–61 55–62 54–62
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 57 0% 53–59 53–59 53–60 53–61
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 54 56 0% 54–58 54–58 53–58 52–59
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid 72 52 0% 50–53 50–54 50–54 50–56
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 52 0% 49–53 48–53 48–54 48–56
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 51 0% 47–53 47–53 47–54 47–54
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 61 50 0% 46–52 46–53 46–53 46–54
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 40 0% 37–40 37–41 37–42 37–43
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 38 0% 36–40 36–40 36–41 35–42
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 47 37 0% 35–40 35–40 35–40 34–40
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 31 0% 29–34 28–34 27–34 27–35
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 26 0% 24–28 23–28 22–28 22–28
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 25 0% 23–27 23–27 23–27 23–27

GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Socialistische Partij – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.2% 100%  
69 0.5% 99.8%  
70 4% 99.3%  
71 2% 95%  
72 13% 93%  
73 40% 80%  
74 23% 40% Median
75 3% 17%  
76 2% 14% Majority
77 0.1% 12%  
78 0% 12%  
79 12% 12%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.4% 100%  
71 25% 99.6%  
72 0.5% 74%  
73 10% 74%  
74 36% 64%  
75 21% 28% Median
76 4% 7% Majority
77 2% 3%  
78 1.3% 1.3%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.3% 100%  
68 2% 99.7%  
69 12% 97%  
70 2% 85%  
71 46% 83%  
72 4% 37% Median
73 14% 33%  
74 18% 19%  
75 0.5% 0.6%  
76 0% 0.1% Majority
77 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
78 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 21% 100%  
66 4% 79%  
67 0.8% 74%  
68 8% 73%  
69 38% 66% Median
70 16% 28%  
71 2% 11%  
72 7% 10%  
73 2% 3%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Majority
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.4% 99.9%  
66 3% 99.6%  
67 15% 97%  
68 48% 82%  
69 2% 34% Median
70 12% 32%  
71 20% 20%  
72 0.2% 0.5%  
73 0.2% 0.3%  
74 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
75 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 2% 99.9%  
61 12% 98% Last Result
62 4% 86%  
63 2% 82%  
64 24% 80%  
65 7% 56% Median
66 42% 49%  
67 6% 7%  
68 0.7% 0.8%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 2% 99.9% Last Result
59 13% 98%  
60 5% 85%  
61 25% 80%  
62 6% 55% Median
63 43% 49%  
64 6% 6%  
65 0.3% 0.4%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 4% 100%  
57 0.6% 96%  
58 5% 96%  
59 31% 91%  
60 41% 60%  
61 3% 18% Median
62 4% 16%  
63 0.4% 12%  
64 12% 12%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 2% 100%  
55 0.9% 98%  
56 12% 97%  
57 0.7% 85% Last Result
58 24% 85%  
59 30% 60% Median
60 7% 30%  
61 20% 23%  
62 3% 3%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 20% 100%  
54 2% 80%  
55 0.7% 78%  
56 25% 77%  
57 38% 52% Median
58 1.1% 14%  
59 10% 13%  
60 2% 3%  
61 1.2% 1.2%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 2% 100%  
53 0.8% 98%  
54 12% 97% Last Result
55 26% 85%  
56 28% 59% Median
57 9% 31%  
58 21% 22%  
59 1.4% 1.5%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 26% 99.9%  
51 7% 74%  
52 35% 67% Median
53 24% 32%  
54 6% 8%  
55 2% 2%  
56 0.5% 0.6%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0% 99.9%  
48 6% 99.9%  
49 22% 94%  
50 0.6% 72%  
51 8% 71% Median
52 35% 63%  
53 25% 29%  
54 1.2% 4%  
55 2% 2%  
56 0.6% 0.6%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 20% 100%  
48 0.3% 80%  
49 1.4% 80%  
50 9% 79%  
51 35% 70% Median
52 23% 35%  
53 8% 12%  
54 4% 4%  
55 0.1% 0.2%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 20% 100%  
47 0.4% 80%  
48 4% 80%  
49 16% 75%  
50 27% 59% Median
51 20% 33%  
52 3% 12%  
53 8% 9%  
54 1.2% 1.2%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.2% 100%  
37 22% 99.8%  
38 6% 78%  
39 21% 71% Median
40 44% 50%  
41 2% 6%  
42 3% 4%  
43 2% 2%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 2% 99.9%  
36 24% 98%  
37 15% 74%  
38 22% 59% Median
39 9% 37%  
40 24% 28%  
41 3% 4%  
42 1.3% 1.3% Last Result
43 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.3% 100%  
34 0.8% 99.7%  
35 27% 98.9%  
36 8% 72%  
37 22% 64% Median
38 23% 42%  
39 6% 20%  
40 13% 13%  
41 0% 0.1%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 3% 100%  
28 3% 96%  
29 5% 94%  
30 8% 89%  
31 55% 81% Median
32 9% 25%  
33 2% 16% Last Result
34 12% 14%  
35 2% 2%  
36 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 4% 100%  
23 3% 96%  
24 11% 93%  
25 24% 83% Median
26 43% 59%  
27 2% 16%  
28 14% 14% Last Result
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.2% 100%  
23 25% 99.8%  
24 21% 75%  
25 11% 54% Median
26 29% 43%  
27 14% 14%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations