Opinion Poll by Ipsos for EenVandaag, 25–28 May 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 20.5% 18.9–22.2% 18.5–22.6% 18.1–23.0% 17.4–23.9%
GroenLinks 9.1% 11.7% 10.5–13.0% 10.2–13.4% 9.9–13.8% 9.3–14.4%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 11.0% 9.8–12.3% 9.5–12.7% 9.2–13.1% 8.7–13.7%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 10.5% 9.4–11.8% 9.1–12.2% 8.8–12.5% 8.3–13.2%
Democraten 66 12.2% 10.0% 8.9–11.2% 8.5–11.6% 8.3–11.9% 7.8–12.6%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 7.2% 6.2–8.3% 6.0–8.6% 5.8–8.9% 5.3–9.5%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 6.4% 5.5–7.5% 5.3–7.8% 5.1–8.1% 4.7–8.6%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 5.3% 4.5–6.3% 4.3–6.5% 4.1–6.8% 3.7–7.3%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 4.5% 3.8–5.4% 3.6–5.7% 3.4–5.9% 3.1–6.4%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.4% 3.7–5.3% 3.5–5.6% 3.3–5.8% 3.0–6.3%
50Plus 3.1% 3.4% 2.8–4.3% 2.6–4.5% 2.5–4.7% 2.2–5.2%
DENK 2.1% 2.3% 1.8–3.0% 1.7–3.2% 1.5–3.4% 1.3–3.8%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.0% 1.6–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 31 29–33 29–34 28–34 27–37
GroenLinks 14 18 16–20 16–20 16–20 15–22
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 17 15–20 14–20 14–20 12–20
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 17 15–17 15–18 14–20 13–20
Democraten 66 19 14 14–15 13–16 13–16 12–18
Socialistische Partij 14 12 10–13 10–13 9–13 8–14
Forum voor Democratie 2 10 9–11 8–11 8–11 7–13
Partij van de Arbeid 9 7 7–9 6–10 6–10 5–10
Partij voor de Dieren 5 7 6–7 6–7 6–8 5–9
ChristenUnie 5 6 6–7 6–7 5–8 4–9
50Plus 4 4 4–6 4–7 4–7 3–7
DENK 3 3 2–3 2–4 2–4 2–5
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 3 2–3 2–3 2–4 2–5

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.8% 99.9%  
28 3% 99.1%  
29 36% 97%  
30 6% 60%  
31 36% 54% Median
32 7% 18%  
33 1.0% 11% Last Result
34 7% 10%  
35 0.6% 2%  
36 1.2% 2%  
37 0.5% 0.6%  
38 0.1% 0.2%  
39 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.3% 99.9% Last Result
15 2% 99.6%  
16 31% 98%  
17 10% 67%  
18 11% 57% Median
19 2% 46%  
20 42% 44%  
21 0.2% 2%  
22 2% 2%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.8% 100%  
13 1.0% 99.2%  
14 8% 98%  
15 8% 91%  
16 10% 83%  
17 38% 73% Median
18 4% 35%  
19 3% 31% Last Result
20 28% 28%  
21 0.2% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.2% 100%  
13 1.2% 99.8%  
14 3% 98.6%  
15 12% 96%  
16 3% 84%  
17 76% 81% Median
18 1.2% 5%  
19 0.7% 4%  
20 3% 3% Last Result
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 1.4% 99.9%  
13 8% 98%  
14 69% 91% Median
15 14% 22%  
16 5% 8%  
17 1.2% 2%  
18 0.8% 1.0%  
19 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.1% 100%  
8 1.0% 99.9%  
9 2% 99.0%  
10 39% 97%  
11 5% 59%  
12 44% 54% Median
13 8% 10%  
14 2% 2% Last Result
15 0.1% 0.2%  
16 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0.2% 100%  
7 0.8% 99.8%  
8 4% 99.0%  
9 34% 95%  
10 21% 61% Median
11 38% 40%  
12 1.4% 2%  
13 0.5% 0.5%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 2% 100%  
6 4% 98%  
7 44% 94% Median
8 37% 50%  
9 4% 12% Last Result
10 8% 9%  
11 0.2% 0.3%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.3% 100%  
5 2% 99.7% Last Result
6 48% 98%  
7 47% 50% Median
8 2% 3%  
9 1.4% 1.5%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.8% 100%  
5 2% 99.2% Last Result
6 53% 97% Median
7 40% 44%  
8 3% 4%  
9 1.5% 2%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.8% 100%  
4 53% 99.2% Last Result, Median
5 8% 47%  
6 31% 39%  
7 7% 8%  
8 0.3% 0.3%  
9 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 45% 99.9%  
3 46% 55% Last Result, Median
4 7% 9%  
5 2% 2%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.4% 100%  
2 47% 99.6%  
3 49% 53% Last Result, Median
4 3% 3%  
5 0.5% 0.5%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 90 87 100% 85–87 85–89 84–90 81–93
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 85 75 46% 74–79 74–79 73–81 72–84
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 77 86% 75–79 73–79 71–80 71–82
GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 80 75 42% 72–77 72–77 72–78 70–82
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie 74 74 32% 73–77 71–77 69–77 68–78
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 67 0.4% 67–71 65–71 65–73 63–75
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 64 0% 62–68 62–68 61–69 60–72
GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 66 64 0% 61–65 60–65 60–68 59–72
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid 72 63 0% 63–68 61–68 60–68 59–70
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 61 0% 60–65 59–65 59–67 57–68
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 61 0% 60–66 60–66 58–66 57–68
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 60 0% 58–62 57–62 56–64 54–67
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 57 0% 56–60 54–60 54–61 52–64
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 55 0% 53–59 52–59 51–59 50–61
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 61 53 0% 50–56 50–56 50–57 49–61
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 46 0% 46–51 46–51 44–52 43–53
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 47 38 0% 37–42 37–42 36–43 35–44
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 39 0% 36–41 36–42 36–42 35–45
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 31 0% 28–34 28–34 27–35 26–36
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 31 0% 30–34 27–34 27–35 27–35
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 24 0% 22–28 22–28 21–28 20–28

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0.2% 100%  
79 0% 99.7%  
80 0% 99.7%  
81 0.3% 99.7%  
82 0.2% 99.4%  
83 1.4% 99.2%  
84 1.3% 98%  
85 16% 96%  
86 1.3% 81% Median
87 71% 79%  
88 1.1% 8%  
89 3% 7%  
90 2% 4% Last Result
91 1.0% 2%  
92 0.5% 1.1%  
93 0.3% 0.6%  
94 0.1% 0.3%  
95 0% 0.2%  
96 0.2% 0.2%  
97 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0.3% 99.9%  
72 0.4% 99.6%  
73 3% 99.2%  
74 37% 96%  
75 13% 59% Median
76 1.3% 46% Majority
77 8% 44%  
78 3% 36%  
79 29% 33%  
80 1.0% 4%  
81 1.2% 3%  
82 1.3% 2%  
83 0.2% 0.7%  
84 0.5% 0.5%  
85 0% 0.1% Last Result
86 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.2% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.7%  
71 2% 99.6%  
72 1.1% 97%  
73 2% 96%  
74 2% 94%  
75 7% 93%  
76 7% 86% Majority
77 43% 79% Last Result
78 4% 36% Median
79 29% 31%  
80 2% 3%  
81 0.4% 1.1%  
82 0.5% 0.8%  
83 0.2% 0.3%  
84 0% 0%  

GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.2% 99.8%  
69 0.1% 99.6%  
70 0.8% 99.5%  
71 0.9% 98.7%  
72 10% 98%  
73 8% 87%  
74 29% 79% Median
75 8% 50%  
76 1.4% 42% Majority
77 38% 41%  
78 0.2% 3%  
79 0.3% 2%  
80 0.1% 2% Last Result
81 0.1% 2%  
82 2% 2%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.3% 99.9%  
68 2% 99.6%  
69 1.5% 98%  
70 0.8% 96%  
71 2% 95%  
72 2% 94%  
73 7% 92%  
74 48% 85% Last Result
75 5% 37% Median
76 2% 32% Majority
77 29% 30%  
78 0.5% 0.9%  
79 0.3% 0.5%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.5% 100%  
64 0.2% 99.4%  
65 6% 99.3%  
66 2% 93%  
67 44% 91%  
68 3% 47% Median
69 1.3% 43%  
70 8% 42%  
71 30% 34%  
72 2% 5%  
73 1.0% 3%  
74 0.6% 2%  
75 1.0% 1.3%  
76 0.2% 0.4% Last Result, Majority
77 0.2% 0.2%  
78 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100%  
59 0.2% 99.9%  
60 0.9% 99.7%  
61 2% 98.8% Last Result
62 7% 96%  
63 4% 90%  
64 37% 85%  
65 7% 49% Median
66 4% 42%  
67 6% 38%  
68 29% 32%  
69 1.0% 3%  
70 1.2% 2%  
71 0.5% 1.1%  
72 0.4% 0.7%  
73 0.2% 0.2%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.1% 99.9%  
58 0.2% 99.8%  
59 1.1% 99.6%  
60 7% 98%  
61 5% 91%  
62 7% 86% Median
63 8% 79%  
64 30% 71%  
65 37% 41%  
66 0.8% 4% Last Result
67 0.5% 3%  
68 0.5% 3%  
69 0.1% 2%  
70 0.1% 2%  
71 0% 2%  
72 2% 2%  
73 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.2% 100%  
58 0.1% 99.7%  
59 1.0% 99.6%  
60 2% 98.5%  
61 3% 96%  
62 0.6% 93%  
63 43% 93%  
64 13% 50%  
65 3% 37% Median
66 3% 34%  
67 2% 31%  
68 28% 29%  
69 0.3% 0.9%  
70 0.4% 0.6%  
71 0.1% 0.2%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0% 99.9%  
57 0.5% 99.9%  
58 1.1% 99.4%  
59 7% 98%  
60 36% 92%  
61 12% 56%  
62 3% 44% Median
63 0.8% 41%  
64 7% 40%  
65 29% 34%  
66 2% 5%  
67 0.5% 3%  
68 2% 2%  
69 0.1% 0.4%  
70 0.3% 0.3%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.4% 99.8%  
58 2% 99.4% Last Result
59 0.9% 97%  
60 11% 96%  
61 36% 85%  
62 2% 50% Median
63 8% 48%  
64 8% 40%  
65 0.6% 32%  
66 30% 31%  
67 0.6% 1.4%  
68 0.3% 0.8%  
69 0.2% 0.4%  
70 0% 0.2%  
71 0.2% 0.2%  
72 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100%  
54 0.8% 99.9%  
55 0.5% 99.2%  
56 2% 98.7%  
57 3% 97% Last Result
58 9% 94%  
59 1.4% 85%  
60 41% 83%  
61 8% 42% Median
62 31% 35%  
63 1.2% 4%  
64 0.5% 3%  
65 1.0% 2%  
66 0.4% 1.1%  
67 0.5% 0.7%  
68 0.2% 0.2%  
69 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0% 100%  
51 0.1% 99.9%  
52 1.0% 99.9%  
53 1.2% 98.9%  
54 3% 98% Last Result
55 4% 95%  
56 7% 91%  
57 42% 84%  
58 1.5% 42% Median
59 7% 41%  
60 30% 33%  
61 2% 3%  
62 0.8% 1.5%  
63 0.1% 0.6%  
64 0.3% 0.5%  
65 0.2% 0.2%  
66 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.6% 99.9%  
51 2% 99.3%  
52 3% 97%  
53 36% 94%  
54 2% 59%  
55 9% 57% Median
56 15% 48%  
57 1.5% 33%  
58 0.5% 32%  
59 30% 31%  
60 0.2% 2%  
61 1.0% 1.4% Last Result
62 0.1% 0.4%  
63 0.2% 0.3%  
64 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.3% 99.9%  
49 0.7% 99.6%  
50 35% 98.9%  
51 4% 64%  
52 2% 59% Median
53 37% 57%  
54 1.3% 20%  
55 7% 18%  
56 7% 12%  
57 2% 5%  
58 1.0% 2%  
59 0.1% 1.4%  
60 0.2% 1.3%  
61 1.1% 1.1% Last Result
62 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.3% 100%  
43 1.3% 99.7%  
44 1.0% 98%  
45 0.5% 97%  
46 48% 97%  
47 7% 49%  
48 1.2% 42% Median
49 8% 41%  
50 2% 33%  
51 28% 31%  
52 2% 3% Last Result
53 0.6% 1.0%  
54 0.3% 0.4%  
55 0.1% 0.2%  
56 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.2% 99.9%  
35 0.8% 99.6%  
36 2% 98.8%  
37 16% 97%  
38 42% 81% Median
39 1.3% 38%  
40 3% 37%  
41 2% 34%  
42 29% 33%  
43 3% 3%  
44 0.5% 0.8%  
45 0.1% 0.3%  
46 0.1% 0.2%  
47 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.1% 99.9%  
35 0.9% 99.8%  
36 40% 98.9%  
37 1.3% 58%  
38 5% 57% Median
39 34% 53%  
40 1.5% 18%  
41 7% 17%  
42 7% 10% Last Result
43 0.5% 2%  
44 0.2% 2%  
45 1.3% 1.4%  
46 0% 0.1%  
47 0% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0% 100%  
26 1.3% 99.9%  
27 1.2% 98.7%  
28 9% 97%  
29 2% 88%  
30 15% 87% Median
31 37% 72%  
32 1.4% 35%  
33 1.1% 33% Last Result
34 30% 32%  
35 2% 3%  
36 0.6% 0.7%  
37 0.1% 0.2%  
38 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.2% 100%  
27 7% 99.8%  
28 2% 93%  
29 0.4% 91%  
30 13% 91%  
31 41% 78% Median
32 3% 37%  
33 3% 35%  
34 29% 32%  
35 2% 3%  
36 0.3% 0.5%  
37 0.2% 0.2%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 2% 99.9%  
21 1.4% 98%  
22 10% 97%  
23 1.4% 87%  
24 49% 86% Median
25 3% 37%  
26 3% 34%  
27 1.1% 31%  
28 30% 30% Last Result
29 0.1% 0.3%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations