Opinion Poll by Peil.nl, 4–10 June 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 18.0% 17.1–18.9% 16.9–19.2% 16.7–19.4% 16.2–19.9%
GroenLinks 9.1% 10.7% 10.0–11.4% 9.8–11.6% 9.6–11.8% 9.3–12.2%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 10.7% 10.0–11.4% 9.8–11.6% 9.6–11.8% 9.3–12.2%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 9.3% 8.7–10.1% 8.5–10.3% 8.3–10.4% 8.0–10.8%
Democraten 66 12.2% 8.7% 8.0–9.4% 7.8–9.6% 7.7–9.7% 7.4–10.1%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 8.0% 7.4–8.7% 7.2–8.9% 7.1–9.0% 6.8–9.4%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 8.0% 7.4–8.7% 7.2–8.9% 7.1–9.0% 6.8–9.4%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 7.3% 6.8–8.0% 6.6–8.2% 6.4–8.3% 6.2–8.6%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 5.3% 4.8–5.9% 4.7–6.1% 4.6–6.2% 4.4–6.5%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.0% 3.6–4.5% 3.4–4.6% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.0%
50Plus 3.1% 4.0% 3.6–4.5% 3.4–4.6% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.0%
DENK 2.1% 4.0% 3.6–4.5% 3.4–4.6% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.0%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 28 27–28 26–29 26–29 25–31
GroenLinks 14 16 16–17 15–18 15–19 14–19
Forum voor Democratie 2 17 15–17 15–17 15–18 14–19
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 14 14–15 14–15 13–16 13–17
Democraten 66 19 12 11–13 11–13 11–14 11–15
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 13 12–13 12–13 12–13 10–14
Socialistische Partij 14 11 10–12 10–12 10–13 10–13
Partij van de Arbeid 9 11 10–12 10–13 10–13 9–13
Partij voor de Dieren 5 8 7–9 7–9 7–9 7–9
ChristenUnie 5 6 6–7 5–7 5–7 5–7
50Plus 4 6 5–7 5–7 5–7 5–7
DENK 3 6 5–6 5–6 5–6 4–6
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–4

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.5% 99.9%  
26 5% 99.4%  
27 38% 94%  
28 47% 56% Median
29 7% 9%  
30 0.7% 2%  
31 1.0% 1.0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0% Last Result

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 1.1% 100% Last Result
15 5% 98.8%  
16 78% 94% Median
17 9% 15%  
18 3% 7%  
19 3% 3%  
20 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 2% 100%  
15 9% 98%  
16 9% 89%  
17 76% 80% Median
18 2% 4%  
19 2% 2%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.2% 100%  
13 4% 99.8%  
14 51% 96% Median
15 41% 45%  
16 3% 4%  
17 1.2% 1.2%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0% Last Result

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 42% 100%  
12 12% 58% Median
13 42% 46%  
14 2% 4%  
15 2% 2%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.7% 100%  
11 0.9% 99.2%  
12 9% 98%  
13 88% 90% Median
14 1.3% 1.3%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 41% 100%  
11 18% 59% Median
12 38% 41%  
13 2% 3%  
14 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
15 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 2% 100% Last Result
10 45% 98%  
11 40% 53% Median
12 6% 13%  
13 7% 7%  
14 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0% 100% Last Result
6 0.2% 100%  
7 43% 99.8%  
8 13% 57% Median
9 44% 44%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.4% 100%  
5 7% 99.6% Last Result
6 52% 92% Median
7 40% 41%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100% Last Result
5 44% 99.9%  
6 18% 56% Median
7 38% 38%  
8 0.3% 0.3%  
9 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0% 100% Last Result
4 1.1% 100%  
5 12% 98.9%  
6 86% 87% Median
7 0.4% 0.4%  
8 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 88% 100% Median
3 11% 12% Last Result
4 1.3% 1.3%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 90 75 48% 73–77 73–77 73–77 71–78
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 74 5% 72–74 72–76 72–76 70–77
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 74 72 0% 70–72 70–72 69–74 68–74
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 85 70 0% 68–71 68–71 68–72 67–73
GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Socialistische Partij – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 80 69 0% 69–71 68–71 67–72 66–72
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 65 0% 64–66 64–67 62–67 61–69
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus 58 63 0% 62–64 62–64 59–64 59–66
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 76 58 0% 57–61 57–61 57–61 56–62
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 59 0% 58–60 58–60 57–61 56–62
GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 66 59 0% 57–60 57–60 56–61 55–62
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 54 57 0% 56–58 56–58 54–58 54–59
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 55 0% 55 53–56 52–57 52–59
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 71 53 0% 51–54 51–54 51–54 50–56
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 51 0% 51–53 49–54 49–54 48–54
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 61 51 0% 49–52 49–53 49–53 48–54
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 41 0% 40–41 39–42 38–42 38–43
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 38 0% 38–40 37–41 36–41 36–41
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 47 36 0% 35–37 35–37 35–37 33–39
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 30 0% 29–31 28–32 27–32 26–32
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 38 25 0% 24–26 24–26 24–27 23–28
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 23 0% 23–25 22–26 22–26 21–26

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.7% 100%  
72 0.9% 99.3%  
73 37% 98%  
74 2% 61%  
75 12% 59% Median
76 3% 48% Majority
77 44% 45%  
78 0.3% 0.5%  
79 0.2% 0.2%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100%  
70 0.5% 99.9%  
71 2% 99.4%  
72 9% 98%  
73 6% 89%  
74 77% 83% Median
75 0.9% 6%  
76 4% 5% Majority
77 1.1% 1.4% Last Result
78 0.3% 0.3%  
79 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 2% 99.8%  
69 0.6% 98%  
70 10% 97%  
71 7% 87%  
72 75% 80% Median
73 2% 4%  
74 2% 3% Last Result
75 0.3% 0.3%  
76 0% 0% Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100%  
66 0.4% 99.9%  
67 2% 99.5%  
68 37% 98%  
69 8% 61%  
70 3% 53% Median
71 46% 50%  
72 3% 4%  
73 0.3% 0.6%  
74 0.2% 0.3%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0% Majority
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Last Result

GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Socialistische Partij – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 2% 100%  
67 0.4% 98%  
68 2% 97%  
69 77% 95% Median
70 6% 18%  
71 8% 12%  
72 3% 4%  
73 0.2% 0.4%  
74 0.1% 0.2%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0% Majority
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 1.2% 100% Last Result
62 2% 98.8%  
63 1.1% 97%  
64 11% 96%  
65 40% 85%  
66 40% 45% Median
67 3% 5%  
68 1.2% 2%  
69 0.2% 0.5%  
70 0.4% 0.4%  
71 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100% Last Result
59 3% 100%  
60 0.7% 97%  
61 1.2% 97%  
62 11% 95%  
63 44% 85%  
64 40% 41% Median
65 0.2% 0.8%  
66 0.2% 0.6%  
67 0.3% 0.4%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.3% 100%  
55 0% 99.7%  
56 1.2% 99.7%  
57 37% 98%  
58 13% 62%  
59 3% 48% Median
60 5% 45%  
61 39% 40%  
62 0.2% 0.5%  
63 0.2% 0.3%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 1.5% 99.9%  
57 3% 98% Last Result
58 9% 95%  
59 37% 86%  
60 45% 50% Median
61 4% 4%  
62 0.5% 0.9%  
63 0.1% 0.4%  
64 0.3% 0.3%  
65 0% 0%  

GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.4% 100%  
55 1.1% 99.6%  
56 2% 98%  
57 38% 96%  
58 4% 58% Median
59 43% 54%  
60 8% 11%  
61 2% 3%  
62 1.2% 1.3%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.2% 100%  
54 3% 99.7% Last Result
55 1.4% 97%  
56 9% 95%  
57 42% 86%  
58 42% 43% Median
59 0.7% 1.1%  
60 0% 0.4%  
61 0.4% 0.4%  
62 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.4% 100%  
52 3% 99.5%  
53 2% 96%  
54 4% 95%  
55 84% 91% Median
56 2% 7%  
57 3% 5%  
58 1.1% 2%  
59 0.7% 0.7%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.3% 100%  
50 1.0% 99.7%  
51 38% 98.7%  
52 8% 61%  
53 8% 53% Median
54 43% 45%  
55 1.3% 2%  
56 0.6% 0.8%  
57 0.2% 0.3%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.2% 100%  
48 1.4% 99.8%  
49 4% 98%  
50 2% 95%  
51 77% 93%  
52 6% 16% Median
53 2% 10%  
54 8% 9%  
55 0.3% 0.3%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 2% 100%  
49 36% 98%  
50 3% 62%  
51 43% 59% Median
52 12% 17%  
53 3% 5%  
54 1.4% 2%  
55 0.2% 0.4%  
56 0.2% 0.2%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.4% 100%  
38 3% 99.6%  
39 4% 96%  
40 37% 92%  
41 50% 55% Median
42 4% 5%  
43 0.9% 1.1%  
44 0.2% 0.2%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 4% 99.8%  
37 1.5% 96%  
38 76% 94%  
39 4% 19% Median
40 5% 14%  
41 9% 10%  
42 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
43 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.7% 99.8%  
34 1.3% 99.2%  
35 42% 98%  
36 41% 56% Median
37 13% 15%  
38 1.3% 2%  
39 1.0% 1.1%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.8% 99.9%  
27 2% 99.1%  
28 7% 97%  
29 3% 91%  
30 75% 87% Median
31 4% 12%  
32 8% 8%  
33 0% 0% Last Result

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.2% 100%  
23 0.6% 99.8%  
24 47% 99.1%  
25 8% 52% Median
26 40% 44%  
27 3% 4%  
28 0.6% 0.6%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.2% 99.9%  
21 1.1% 99.7%  
22 4% 98.6%  
23 45% 95%  
24 38% 49% Median
25 5% 11%  
26 7% 7%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations