Opinion Poll by Ipsos for EenVandaag, 22–25 June 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 20.4% 19.0–22.0% 18.5–22.5% 18.2–22.9% 17.5–23.7%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 11.4% 10.3–12.7% 10.0–13.1% 9.7–13.4% 9.2–14.0%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 10.8% 9.7–12.1% 9.4–12.4% 9.1–12.7% 8.6–13.4%
GroenLinks 9.1% 10.7% 9.6–12.0% 9.3–12.3% 9.0–12.6% 8.5–13.3%
Democraten 66 12.2% 9.9% 8.9–11.1% 8.6–11.5% 8.3–11.8% 7.8–12.4%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 7.4% 6.5–8.5% 6.2–8.8% 6.0–9.0% 5.6–9.6%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 6.0% 5.2–7.0% 4.9–7.3% 4.7–7.5% 4.4–8.0%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 5.1% 4.3–6.0% 4.1–6.3% 3.9–6.5% 3.6–7.0%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 4.7% 4.0–5.7% 3.8–5.9% 3.6–6.1% 3.3–6.6%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.2% 3.5–5.1% 3.3–5.3% 3.2–5.5% 2.9–6.0%
50Plus 3.1% 3.7% 3.0–4.5% 2.9–4.7% 2.7–5.0% 2.5–5.4%
DENK 2.1% 3.1% 2.5–3.8% 2.3–4.1% 2.2–4.3% 2.0–4.6%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.0% 1.6–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.0% 1.2–3.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 32 30–33 29–34 28–34 28–35
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 17 16–18 15–20 14–20 13–20
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 17 15–17 13–18 13–19 13–19
GroenLinks 14 16 14–17 14–17 14–19 13–19
Democraten 66 19 14 13–16 13–17 13–17 12–19
Socialistische Partij 14 12 10–13 10–13 10–14 8–15
Forum voor Democratie 2 9 9–10 8–10 8–10 7–11
Partij van de Arbeid 9 8 7–8 7–8 6–9 6–9
Partij voor de Dieren 5 6 6–7 5–8 5–9 4–9
ChristenUnie 5 6 5–7 5–7 5–8 4–8
50Plus 4 5 4–7 4–7 4–7 3–8
DENK 3 5 3–6 3–6 3–6 3–6
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 2 2–4 2–4 2–4 1–4

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.2% 100%  
27 0.2% 99.8%  
28 4% 99.6%  
29 1.2% 96%  
30 6% 95%  
31 7% 88%  
32 42% 81% Median
33 34% 40% Last Result
34 4% 6%  
35 2% 2%  
36 0.2% 0.5%  
37 0.1% 0.3%  
38 0.2% 0.2%  
39 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.5% 100%  
14 3% 99.5%  
15 5% 97%  
16 25% 91%  
17 45% 66% Median
18 14% 21%  
19 1.1% 7%  
20 6% 6% Last Result
21 0.3% 0.5%  
22 0.2% 0.2%  
23 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 7% 99.9%  
14 1.3% 93%  
15 4% 92%  
16 31% 88%  
17 51% 56% Median
18 3% 5%  
19 2% 3% Last Result
20 0.3% 0.4%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 1.3% 99.9%  
14 26% 98.6% Last Result
15 14% 73%  
16 49% 59% Median
17 6% 11%  
18 1.0% 4%  
19 3% 3%  
20 0.1% 0.4%  
21 0.2% 0.2%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0% 100%  
12 2% 99.9%  
13 42% 98%  
14 12% 56% Median
15 14% 44%  
16 25% 30%  
17 5% 5%  
18 0.3% 0.8%  
19 0.4% 0.5% Last Result
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.9% 100%  
9 1.1% 99.1%  
10 32% 98%  
11 9% 66%  
12 10% 57% Median
13 44% 47%  
14 1.1% 3% Last Result
15 2% 2%  
16 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0.2% 100%  
7 2% 99.8%  
8 3% 98%  
9 44% 94% Median
10 48% 50%  
11 2% 2%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.3% 100%  
6 3% 99.7%  
7 21% 97%  
8 71% 76% Median
9 4% 4% Last Result
10 0.3% 0.4%  
11 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.8% 100%  
5 8% 99.2% Last Result
6 48% 92% Median
7 39% 44%  
8 3% 5%  
9 2% 3%  
10 0.3% 0.3%  
11 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 1.3% 100%  
5 45% 98.7% Last Result
6 7% 54% Median
7 43% 47%  
8 4% 5%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.8% 100%  
4 11% 99.2% Last Result
5 45% 88% Median
6 13% 43%  
7 30% 30%  
8 0.3% 0.5%  
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.1% 100%  
3 28% 99.9% Last Result
4 12% 72%  
5 13% 61% Median
6 47% 47%  
7 0.3% 0.4%  
8 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.8% 100%  
2 52% 99.2% Median
3 36% 47% Last Result
4 10% 10%  
5 0.3% 0.3%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 90 83 100% 83–87 81–87 81–89 79–89
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 78 89% 75–79 74–80 72–80 72–82
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 85 75 46% 74–80 72–80 71–80 71–81
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 80 72 4% 70–73 69–75 68–78 65–78
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 74 76 52% 73–76 71–77 70–77 69–78
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 67 0.1% 67–72 65–72 64–72 64–74
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 66 0% 63–68 63–68 61–68 59–70
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 66 0% 63–67 62–68 61–68 61–69
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 62 0% 61–65 58–65 57–66 57–67
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 64 0% 60–65 59–65 59–65 57–67
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 66 59 0% 59–63 58–63 56–63 55–66
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 61 0% 58–62 57–62 55–63 54–64
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 59 0% 55–59 53–59 53–60 52–61
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 57 0% 54–57 51–57 50–59 50–60
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 61 53 0% 52–57 51–57 49–58 49–58
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 49 0% 46–50 44–50 43–51 43–52
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 40 0% 37–41 37–41 35–41 35–43
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 47 38 0% 37–40 34–40 34–41 34–44
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 30 0% 30–32 28–33 27–34 27–36
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 30 0% 28–31 27–32 27–33 26–34
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 24 0% 22–25 20–26 20–26 20–28

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.1% 100%  
78 0% 99.9%  
79 0.5% 99.8%  
80 1.1% 99.3%  
81 5% 98%  
82 2% 94%  
83 43% 92%  
84 4% 49%  
85 3% 44% Median
86 31% 41%  
87 7% 11%  
88 0.9% 3%  
89 2% 3%  
90 0.2% 0.4% Last Result
91 0.1% 0.2%  
92 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0% 99.9%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.2% 99.8%  
72 3% 99.7%  
73 1.3% 97%  
74 0.8% 95%  
75 5% 95%  
76 8% 89% Majority
77 28% 82% Last Result, Median
78 43% 54%  
79 2% 11%  
80 7% 9%  
81 0.8% 2%  
82 1.1% 1.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0% 99.9%  
70 0.2% 99.9%  
71 4% 99.8%  
72 3% 96%  
73 0.7% 93%  
74 3% 92%  
75 43% 89%  
76 3% 46% Majority
77 3% 43% Median
78 7% 41%  
79 8% 34%  
80 24% 26%  
81 2% 2%  
82 0.1% 0.3%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0% Last Result

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.5% 100%  
66 0.2% 99.4%  
67 1.0% 99.3%  
68 1.0% 98%  
69 4% 97%  
70 6% 94%  
71 25% 88%  
72 49% 63%  
73 6% 14% Median
74 2% 8%  
75 3% 6%  
76 0.7% 4% Majority
77 0.3% 3%  
78 3% 3%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0.1% Last Result
81 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 99.9%  
68 0.2% 99.9%  
69 0.3% 99.7%  
70 3% 99.4%  
71 5% 97%  
72 2% 92%  
73 7% 90%  
74 29% 83% Last Result
75 2% 54% Median
76 43% 52% Majority
77 8% 9%  
78 1.0% 1.2%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 99.9%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.3% 99.8%  
64 4% 99.6%  
65 4% 95%  
66 2% 92%  
67 42% 90%  
68 3% 48%  
69 2% 45% Median
70 6% 42%  
71 4% 36%  
72 30% 32%  
73 0.3% 2%  
74 2% 2%  
75 0.1% 0.2%  
76 0% 0.1% Last Result, Majority
77 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0% 99.9%  
59 0.5% 99.9%  
60 0.9% 99.4%  
61 3% 98.5% Last Result
62 0.5% 96%  
63 5% 95%  
64 5% 90%  
65 2% 85% Median
66 52% 83%  
67 4% 31%  
68 25% 26%  
69 0.3% 2%  
70 1.0% 1.3%  
71 0.3% 0.3%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0% 99.9%  
59 0.2% 99.9%  
60 0.1% 99.7%  
61 3% 99.6%  
62 5% 97%  
63 6% 91%  
64 1.2% 85%  
65 27% 84%  
66 47% 57% Median
67 1.5% 10%  
68 7% 9%  
69 1.0% 1.3%  
70 0.2% 0.3%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0% 99.9%  
57 4% 99.9%  
58 3% 96%  
59 0.8% 93%  
60 2% 92%  
61 2% 90%  
62 48% 89%  
63 2% 41% Median
64 5% 39%  
65 30% 34%  
66 2% 4%  
67 2% 2%  
68 0.2% 0.3%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0% 99.9%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 1.1% 99.8%  
58 0.5% 98.7% Last Result
59 7% 98%  
60 2% 91%  
61 1.4% 90%  
62 5% 88%  
63 12% 83% Median
64 46% 72%  
65 24% 26%  
66 0.4% 2%  
67 1.3% 1.4%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100%  
55 0.9% 99.9%  
56 2% 99.0%  
57 0.2% 97%  
58 5% 97%  
59 45% 91%  
60 3% 46%  
61 30% 43% Median
62 2% 13%  
63 9% 11%  
64 0.9% 2%  
65 0.6% 1.3%  
66 0.4% 0.7% Last Result
67 0.1% 0.3%  
68 0.2% 0.2%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.2% 100%  
54 0.4% 99.8%  
55 3% 99.4%  
56 1.3% 97%  
57 5% 96% Last Result
58 4% 90%  
59 3% 86%  
60 6% 83% Median
61 65% 77%  
62 9% 12%  
63 1.5% 3%  
64 1.2% 2%  
65 0.2% 0.4%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.1% 99.8%  
52 0.3% 99.8%  
53 8% 99.5%  
54 1.3% 92% Last Result
55 1.1% 91%  
56 8% 89%  
57 3% 81%  
58 25% 78% Median
59 48% 53%  
60 4% 5%  
61 0.6% 0.8%  
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.1% 99.9%  
50 4% 99.8%  
51 3% 96%  
52 0.9% 93%  
53 2% 92%  
54 4% 90%  
55 6% 86%  
56 2% 80%  
57 74% 78% Median
58 0.9% 4%  
59 2% 3%  
60 0.2% 0.5%  
61 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 3% 99.8%  
50 0.3% 97%  
51 7% 97%  
52 1.2% 90%  
53 44% 89%  
54 6% 45% Median
55 9% 39%  
56 2% 30%  
57 24% 28%  
58 4% 4%  
59 0.1% 0.4%  
60 0.1% 0.3%  
61 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.1% 99.9%  
43 4% 99.8%  
44 3% 96%  
45 1.4% 92%  
46 2% 91%  
47 8% 89%  
48 5% 81%  
49 65% 77% Median
50 8% 12%  
51 2% 4%  
52 2% 2% Last Result
53 0.2% 0.3%  
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.2% 99.9%  
35 3% 99.7%  
36 1.2% 97%  
37 7% 96%  
38 3% 89%  
39 4% 86%  
40 50% 82% Median
41 30% 32%  
42 0.9% 2% Last Result
43 0.3% 0.8%  
44 0.2% 0.5%  
45 0.1% 0.3%  
46 0.2% 0.2%  
47 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100%  
34 5% 99.9%  
35 0.9% 95%  
36 0.8% 94%  
37 8% 93%  
38 42% 85%  
39 12% 43% Median
40 26% 31%  
41 3% 5%  
42 0.8% 2%  
43 0.6% 1.3%  
44 0.4% 0.6%  
45 0.2% 0.2%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.2% 100%  
27 5% 99.8%  
28 1.5% 95%  
29 2% 94%  
30 48% 92%  
31 7% 44% Median
32 32% 37%  
33 1.0% 5%  
34 3% 4%  
35 0.6% 1.1%  
36 0.4% 0.5%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.2% 99.9%  
26 1.1% 99.7%  
27 8% 98.7%  
28 1.5% 91%  
29 4% 89%  
30 45% 86%  
31 31% 40% Median
32 6% 9%  
33 3% 4% Last Result
34 0.7% 1.0%  
35 0.1% 0.3%  
36 0.1% 0.2%  
37 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 7% 99.9%  
21 0.6% 93%  
22 4% 92%  
23 5% 88%  
24 35% 83%  
25 43% 49% Median
26 4% 6%  
27 0.8% 1.5%  
28 0.5% 0.7% Last Result
29 0.1% 0.2%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations