Opinion Poll by I&O Research, 13–29 June 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 17.5% 16.5–18.6% 16.2–18.9% 16.0–19.1% 15.5–19.6%
GroenLinks 9.1% 12.7% 11.8–13.6% 11.6–13.9% 11.4–14.1% 11.0–14.6%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 10.8% 10.0–11.7% 9.8–11.9% 9.6–12.1% 9.2–12.6%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 10.3% 9.5–11.2% 9.3–11.4% 9.1–11.6% 8.7–12.1%
Democraten 66 12.2% 9.1% 8.4–9.9% 8.2–10.2% 8.0–10.4% 7.6–10.8%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 7.6% 6.9–8.4% 6.7–8.6% 6.6–8.8% 6.2–9.1%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 7.1% 6.4–7.8% 6.3–8.1% 6.1–8.2% 5.8–8.6%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 7.0% 6.4–7.8% 6.2–8.0% 6.0–8.2% 5.7–8.5%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.7% 4.2–5.3% 4.0–5.5% 3.9–5.7% 3.7–6.0%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 4.4% 3.9–5.0% 3.7–5.2% 3.6–5.3% 3.4–5.6%
50Plus 3.1% 4.0% 3.5–4.6% 3.4–4.8% 3.3–4.9% 3.0–5.2%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.3% 2.0–2.8% 1.8–2.9% 1.8–3.0% 1.6–3.3%
DENK 2.1% 2.3% 2.0–2.8% 1.8–2.9% 1.8–3.0% 1.6–3.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 25 25–28 25–30 25–30 24–30
GroenLinks 14 19 18–20 18–21 18–22 17–22
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 17 16–18 15–18 15–19 13–19
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 16 15–17 15–17 14–17 14–18
Democraten 66 19 14 12–15 11–15 11–15 11–16
Socialistische Partij 14 12 11–13 10–13 10–13 9–13
Forum voor Democratie 2 11 10–12 9–12 9–12 9–13
Partij van de Arbeid 9 10 10–11 10–12 10–12 9–12
ChristenUnie 5 8 6–8 6–8 6–8 5–9
Partij voor de Dieren 5 6 6–8 6–8 5–8 5–8
50Plus 4 5 5–6 5–6 4–6 4–7
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 3 2–4 2–4 2–5 2–5
DENK 3 3 3 3–4 2–4 2–5

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.7% 99.9%  
25 51% 99.2% Median
26 19% 48%  
27 12% 29%  
28 8% 17%  
29 1.3% 9%  
30 8% 8%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0% Last Result

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0% 100% Last Result
15 0% 100%  
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.7% 99.9%  
18 23% 99.2%  
19 60% 77% Median
20 11% 16%  
21 3% 6%  
22 2% 3%  
23 0.2% 0.2%  
24 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.5% 100%  
14 1.4% 99.5%  
15 6% 98%  
16 27% 92%  
17 51% 66% Median
18 10% 15%  
19 5% 5% Last Result
20 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.4% 100%  
14 3% 99.6%  
15 13% 97%  
16 60% 83% Median
17 22% 23%  
18 1.2% 1.3%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0% Last Result

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 8% 99.9%  
12 13% 92%  
13 7% 79%  
14 48% 72% Median
15 21% 24%  
16 2% 2%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 2% 100%  
10 6% 98%  
11 21% 92%  
12 23% 71% Median
13 47% 48%  
14 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.1% 100%  
9 6% 99.9%  
10 28% 94%  
11 18% 65% Median
12 46% 47%  
13 0.5% 0.6%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.4% 100%  
9 0.9% 99.6% Last Result
10 64% 98.6% Median
11 28% 35%  
12 7% 7%  
13 0% 0.2%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.5% 100% Last Result
6 35% 99.5%  
7 13% 65%  
8 50% 52% Median
9 2% 2%  
10 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 3% 100% Last Result
6 56% 97% Median
7 26% 41%  
8 14% 15%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 5% 100% Last Result
5 65% 95% Median
6 28% 30%  
7 1.4% 2%  
8 0.4% 0.4%  
9 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 46% 100%  
3 27% 54% Last Result, Median
4 22% 27%  
5 5% 5%  
6 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 5% 100%  
3 87% 95% Last Result, Median
4 7% 8%  
5 0.5% 0.5%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 90 83 100% 81–85 81–86 81–86 80–86
GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 80 80 92% 77–81 73–81 73–83 73–83
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 85 74 10% 73–75 72–77 72–77 71–78
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 72 10% 71–75 70–77 70–77 68–77
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie 74 70 0% 67–72 67–73 66–73 65–74
GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 66 68 0% 65–69 61–70 61–71 61–71
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 64 0% 62–65 62–67 61–67 61–68
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 61 0% 61–64 59–67 59–67 59–67
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 59 0% 58–61 56–63 55–63 55–63
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid 72 58 0% 57–62 56–62 56–62 55–62
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 56 0% 56–59 55–61 54–61 54–61
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 56 0% 55–58 54–60 54–60 54–61
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 54 0% 52–56 51–57 50–57 50–57
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 52 0% 52–56 52–56 52–56 51–57
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 61 49 0% 49–53 49–53 48–53 48–55
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 42 0% 42–45 41–46 40–46 40–46
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 47 41 0% 38–42 37–44 37–44 37–44
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 36 0% 35–39 35–40 35–40 35–40
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 35 0% 32–35 32–36 32–36 31–37
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 31 0% 28–31 27–33 27–34 27–34
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 27 0% 26–29 26–29 25–29 24–30

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.2% 100%  
78 0.1% 99.8%  
79 0.1% 99.6%  
80 0.8% 99.5%  
81 19% 98.7%  
82 18% 80%  
83 48% 62% Median
84 3% 14%  
85 5% 11%  
86 6% 6%  
87 0.2% 0.3%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result

GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100%  
73 8% 99.9%  
74 0% 92%  
75 0.6% 92%  
76 1.1% 92% Majority
77 15% 90%  
78 16% 75%  
79 5% 59%  
80 5% 54% Last Result, Median
81 46% 49%  
82 0.1% 3%  
83 3% 3%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.4% 99.9%  
72 6% 99.5%  
73 18% 93%  
74 48% 76% Median
75 18% 27%  
76 3% 10% Majority
77 6% 6%  
78 0.6% 0.7%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.8% 100%  
69 0.3% 99.1%  
70 7% 98.8%  
71 2% 92%  
72 49% 90% Median
73 15% 40%  
74 8% 26%  
75 8% 18%  
76 2% 10% Majority
77 8% 8% Last Result
78 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.9% 99.9%  
66 4% 99.1%  
67 6% 95%  
68 3% 89%  
69 4% 85% Median
70 56% 82%  
71 15% 25%  
72 3% 11%  
73 7% 8%  
74 0.6% 0.7% Last Result
75 0% 0%  

GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 7% 100%  
62 0.1% 93%  
63 0.6% 93%  
64 1.3% 92%  
65 3% 91%  
66 25% 88% Last Result
67 2% 63%  
68 49% 61% Median
69 4% 12%  
70 5% 8%  
71 3% 3%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.3% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.7%  
61 5% 99.5%  
62 13% 95%  
63 10% 82%  
64 61% 71% Median
65 3% 11%  
66 2% 8%  
67 5% 5%  
68 0.6% 0.7%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 5% 99.9%  
60 3% 95%  
61 55% 91% Last Result, Median
62 2% 36%  
63 11% 34%  
64 15% 24%  
65 0.7% 8%  
66 0.4% 8%  
67 7% 7%  
68 0.2% 0.2%  
69 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 3% 100%  
56 2% 97%  
57 4% 95%  
58 14% 90% Last Result, Median
59 45% 76%  
60 17% 31%  
61 6% 14%  
62 0.5% 8%  
63 7% 8%  
64 0.2% 0.3%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.5% 99.9%  
56 6% 99.4%  
57 8% 93%  
58 45% 85% Median
59 2% 40%  
60 17% 37%  
61 8% 21%  
62 13% 13%  
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 5% 99.8%  
55 4% 95%  
56 57% 91% Median
57 11% 34% Last Result
58 8% 24%  
59 6% 16%  
60 3% 10%  
61 7% 7%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.3% 100%  
53 0.2% 99.7%  
54 5% 99.5%  
55 5% 94%  
56 56% 89% Median
57 10% 33%  
58 16% 24%  
59 3% 8%  
60 5% 5%  
61 0.5% 0.6%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 4% 99.9%  
51 1.5% 96%  
52 8% 95%  
53 13% 86% Median
54 57% 74% Last Result
55 1.5% 16%  
56 7% 15%  
57 8% 8%  
58 0.1% 0.2%  
59 0% 0.1%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.3% 100%  
51 0.6% 99.6%  
52 54% 99.0% Median
53 6% 45%  
54 12% 39%  
55 14% 27%  
56 11% 13%  
57 2% 2%  
58 0.1% 0.2%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0% 99.9%  
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 5% 99.8%  
49 52% 95% Median
50 2% 43%  
51 18% 41%  
52 10% 24%  
53 12% 14%  
54 1.3% 2%  
55 0.4% 0.6%  
56 0.2% 0.2%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 4% 99.9%  
41 4% 96%  
42 52% 92% Median
43 13% 40%  
44 9% 28%  
45 9% 19%  
46 9% 10%  
47 0.1% 0.2%  
48 0% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0% 100%  
37 8% 99.9%  
38 6% 92%  
39 1.1% 86%  
40 3% 85%  
41 58% 82% Median
42 15% 24%  
43 3% 9%  
44 6% 6%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.4% 100%  
35 45% 99.5% Median
36 11% 55%  
37 14% 43%  
38 14% 29%  
39 6% 15%  
40 8% 8%  
41 0.3% 0.3%  
42 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.2% 100%  
31 2% 99.7%  
32 9% 98%  
33 14% 89% Last Result
34 12% 75%  
35 56% 63% Median
36 7% 7%  
37 0.4% 0.6%  
38 0.2% 0.2%  
39 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.3% 100%  
27 9% 99.7%  
28 5% 91%  
29 1.4% 86%  
30 20% 84%  
31 57% 65% Median
32 2% 8%  
33 2% 7%  
34 4% 4%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 2% 100%  
25 2% 98%  
26 13% 96%  
27 58% 83% Median
28 11% 24% Last Result
29 13% 14%  
30 0.6% 0.8%  
31 0.2% 0.2%  
32 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations