Opinion Poll by Peil.nl, 25 June–1 July 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 18.7% 17.8–19.6% 17.5–19.9% 17.3–20.1% 16.9–20.6%
GroenLinks 9.1% 11.3% 10.6–12.1% 10.4–12.3% 10.2–12.5% 9.9–12.9%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 10.7% 10.0–11.4% 9.8–11.6% 9.6–11.8% 9.3–12.2%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 10.0% 9.3–10.7% 9.1–10.9% 9.0–11.1% 8.7–11.5%
Democraten 66 12.2% 8.7% 8.0–9.4% 7.8–9.6% 7.7–9.7% 7.4–10.1%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 8.0% 7.4–8.7% 7.2–8.9% 7.1–9.0% 6.8–9.4%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 7.3% 6.8–8.0% 6.6–8.2% 6.4–8.3% 6.2–8.6%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 6.7% 6.1–7.3% 6.0–7.5% 5.8–7.6% 5.6–7.9%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 4.7% 4.2–5.2% 4.1–5.3% 4.0–5.5% 3.7–5.8%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.0% 3.6–4.5% 3.4–4.6% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.0%
50Plus 3.1% 4.0% 3.6–4.5% 3.4–4.6% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.0%
DENK 2.1% 4.0% 3.6–4.5% 3.4–4.6% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.0%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 29 29–30 28–30 27–30 27–30
GroenLinks 14 17 16–17 16–17 16–18 16–18
Forum voor Democratie 2 16 16–17 16–17 16–18 15–18
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 15 15–16 15–16 15–16 13–16
Democraten 66 19 13 13–14 13–14 13–15 12–15
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 12 12 12 12 11–13
Partij van de Arbeid 9 12 9–12 9–12 9–12 9–12
Socialistische Partij 14 10 9–10 9–10 9–10 8–12
Partij voor de Dieren 5 7 7 7 7 6–8
ChristenUnie 5 5 5–6 5–6 5–6 5–6
50Plus 4 7 6–7 6–7 5–7 5–7
DENK 3 5 5–6 5–6 5–6 5–7
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 2 2 2–3 2–3 2–3

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.3% 99.9%  
27 4% 99.5%  
28 2% 96%  
29 82% 94% Median
30 13% 13%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0% Last Result

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100% Last Result
15 0.1% 99.9%  
16 13% 99.8%  
17 83% 87% Median
18 3% 3%  
19 0.3% 0.3%  
20 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.5% 100%  
16 82% 99.4% Median
17 15% 18%  
18 2% 3%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.9% 100%  
14 0.6% 99.1%  
15 84% 98.5% Median
16 14% 14%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0% Last Result

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 2% 100%  
13 82% 98% Median
14 13% 16%  
15 2% 3%  
16 0.3% 0.3%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.3% 100%  
11 0.6% 99.7%  
12 98% 99.1% Median
13 0.6% 0.7%  
14 0% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 12% 100% Last Result
10 2% 88%  
11 4% 86%  
12 82% 82% Median
13 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 1.0% 100%  
9 14% 99.0%  
10 84% 85% Median
11 0.8% 1.4%  
12 0.3% 0.6%  
13 0.3% 0.3%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0% 100% Last Result
6 2% 100%  
7 97% 98% Median
8 1.2% 1.2%  
9 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 84% 99.9% Last Result, Median
6 16% 16%  
7 0.4% 0.4%  
8 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 3% 100%  
6 16% 97%  
7 81% 81% Median
8 0.2% 0.2%  
9 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0% 100% Last Result
4 0% 100%  
5 83% 100% Median
6 15% 17%  
7 1.0% 1.2%  
8 0.2% 0.2%  
9 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 94% 100% Median
3 6% 6% Last Result
4 0.2% 0.2%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 90 76 97% 76–78 76–78 75–78 74–78
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 74 15% 74–77 74–77 74–77 72–77
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 74 72 0% 72–75 72–75 71–75 69–75
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 85 71 0% 71 70–71 70–71 68–72
GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie 80 69 0% 66–69 66–69 66–71 66–71
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 66 0% 66–67 66–67 64–67 63–67
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus 58 64 0% 64–65 64–65 61–65 60–65
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 76 59 0% 59–62 59–62 58–62 57–62
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 59 0% 59–61 59–61 59–61 57–61
GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 66 59 0% 57–59 57–59 57–61 57–61
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 54 57 0% 57–59 57–59 56–59 54–59
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 56 0% 56–58 55–58 54–58 53–58
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 71 54 0% 54–56 54–56 52–56 52–56
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 61 54 0% 53–54 53–54 52–54 50–55
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 53 0% 51–53 51–53 50–53 49–53
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 41 0% 41–42 40–42 39–42 38–42
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 41 0% 39–41 39–41 38–41 37–41
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 47 37 0% 35–37 35–37 35–38 35–38
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 29 0% 27–29 27–29 27–29 27–30
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 38 25 0% 25–26 25–26 25–27 24–27
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 24 0% 21–24 21–24 21–24 21–24

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0.6% 99.9%  
75 2% 99.3%  
76 82% 97% Median, Majority
77 2% 15%  
78 13% 13%  
79 0.3% 0.4%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.4% 100%  
72 0.2% 99.6%  
73 1.3% 99.3%  
74 83% 98% Median
75 0.6% 16%  
76 2% 15% Majority
77 12% 12% Last Result
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.4% 100%  
69 0.2% 99.6%  
70 1.0% 99.4%  
71 3% 98%  
72 81% 96% Median
73 3% 15%  
74 0.2% 13% Last Result
75 12% 12%  
76 0% 0% Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 2% 99.9%  
69 0.4% 98%  
70 3% 98%  
71 94% 94% Median
72 0.6% 0.7%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Majority
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Last Result

GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 13% 100%  
67 0.2% 87%  
68 2% 86%  
69 81% 84% Median
70 0.4% 3%  
71 3% 3%  
72 0.2% 0.3%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Majority
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100% Last Result
62 0.4% 99.9%  
63 0.3% 99.5%  
64 3% 99.3%  
65 0.4% 97%  
66 81% 96% Median
67 15% 15%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100% Last Result
59 0.5% 100%  
60 0.2% 99.5%  
61 2% 99.3%  
62 0.6% 97%  
63 1.0% 96%  
64 82% 95% Median
65 13% 13%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.2% 100%  
57 0.4% 99.8%  
58 3% 99.4%  
59 83% 96% Median
60 1.1% 14%  
61 0.1% 13%  
62 13% 13%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.5% 100%  
57 0.3% 99.5% Last Result
58 0.3% 99.2%  
59 83% 99.0% Median
60 2% 16%  
61 14% 14%  
62 0.3% 0.3%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 13% 100%  
58 2% 87%  
59 82% 85% Median
60 0.4% 3%  
61 3% 3%  
62 0% 0.2%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.4% 100%  
54 0.4% 99.6% Last Result
55 0.2% 99.3%  
56 2% 99.1%  
57 83% 97% Median
58 1.4% 14%  
59 12% 13%  
60 0.2% 0.3%  
61 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.4% 100%  
53 0.5% 99.6%  
54 3% 99.0%  
55 3% 96%  
56 80% 94% Median
57 0.6% 13%  
58 12% 12%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.5% 100%  
52 3% 99.5%  
53 0.5% 97%  
54 83% 96% Median
55 0.3% 13%  
56 12% 13%  
57 0.3% 0.4%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 1.1% 100%  
51 0.9% 98.9%  
52 2% 98%  
53 15% 96%  
54 80% 81% Median
55 0.5% 0.5%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 2% 100%  
50 2% 98%  
51 13% 96%  
52 2% 83%  
53 80% 81% Median
54 0.3% 0.3%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.2% 100%  
38 0.4% 99.8%  
39 4% 99.4%  
40 2% 96%  
41 81% 94% Median
42 12% 13%  
43 0.3% 0.3%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 1.1% 99.9%  
38 3% 98.7%  
39 13% 96%  
40 2% 83%  
41 81% 81% Median
42 0% 0.1% Last Result
43 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.2% 100%  
33 0% 99.8%  
34 0.1% 99.7%  
35 13% 99.6%  
36 2% 86%  
37 81% 84% Median
38 3% 3%  
39 0.1% 0.2%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 13% 99.9%  
28 3% 87%  
29 82% 83% Median
30 1.3% 2%  
31 0.2% 0.2%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0% Last Result

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.2% 100%  
23 0% 99.8%  
24 1.5% 99.7%  
25 83% 98% Median
26 13% 15%  
27 2% 3%  
28 0.4% 0.4%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.2% 100%  
21 13% 99.7%  
22 2% 87%  
23 3% 86%  
24 82% 82% Median
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations