Opinion Poll by Peil.nl, 2–8 July 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 20.0% 19.1–21.0% 18.8–21.2% 18.6–21.5% 18.2–21.9%
GroenLinks 9.1% 11.3% 10.6–12.1% 10.4–12.3% 10.2–12.5% 9.9–12.9%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 10.0% 9.3–10.7% 9.1–10.9% 9.0–11.1% 8.7–11.5%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 10.0% 9.3–10.7% 9.1–10.9% 9.0–11.1% 8.7–11.5%
Democraten 66 12.2% 8.7% 8.0–9.4% 7.8–9.6% 7.7–9.7% 7.4–10.1%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 8.0% 7.4–8.7% 7.2–8.9% 7.1–9.0% 6.8–9.4%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 7.3% 6.8–8.0% 6.6–8.2% 6.4–8.3% 6.2–8.6%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 6.7% 6.1–7.3% 6.0–7.5% 5.8–7.6% 5.6–7.9%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 4.7% 4.2–5.2% 4.1–5.3% 4.0–5.5% 3.7–5.8%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.0% 3.6–4.5% 3.4–4.6% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.0%
DENK 2.1% 4.0% 3.6–4.5% 3.4–4.6% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.0%
50Plus 3.1% 3.3% 2.9–3.8% 2.8–3.9% 2.7–4.0% 2.6–4.3%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 31 30–31 30–34 29–34 29–34
GroenLinks 14 17 17 16–18 16–18 15–18
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 15 14–15 14–15 14–16 13–17
Forum voor Democratie 2 15 15 15–16 14–17 13–17
Democraten 66 19 13 13 13–14 12–14 12–15
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 11 11 11–13 11–13 11–13
Socialistische Partij 14 10 10 10–12 10–12 9–13
Partij van de Arbeid 9 11 10–11 10–11 10–11 8–12
Partij voor de Dieren 5 7 6–7 6–7 6–7 6–8
ChristenUnie 5 6 6 5–6 5–6 4–6
DENK 3 7 6–7 6–7 5–7 5–7
50Plus 4 4 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 3 3 3–4 3–4 2–4

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 4% 99.9%  
30 6% 96%  
31 82% 90% Median
32 2% 8%  
33 0.6% 6% Last Result
34 5% 5%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100% Last Result
15 0.6% 99.9%  
16 8% 99.3%  
17 84% 91% Median
18 7% 8%  
19 0.4% 0.4%  
20 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 2% 100%  
14 8% 98%  
15 85% 89% Median
16 3% 4%  
17 1.0% 1.0%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0% Last Result

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0.1% 100%  
13 1.0% 99.9%  
14 4% 98.9%  
15 88% 95% Median
16 4% 7%  
17 3% 3%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 4% 99.9%  
13 88% 96% Median
14 7% 8%  
15 0.7% 0.8%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.4% 100%  
11 90% 99.6% Median
12 4% 10%  
13 6% 6%  
14 0.3% 0.3%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 2% 100%  
10 89% 98% Median
11 5% 10%  
12 5% 5%  
13 0.7% 0.7%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.9% 100%  
9 0.8% 99.1% Last Result
10 9% 98%  
11 87% 89% Median
12 2% 2%  
13 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.3% 100% Last Result
6 13% 99.7%  
7 85% 87% Median
8 2% 2%  
9 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.9% 100%  
5 7% 99.1% Last Result
6 92% 92% Median
7 0.3% 0.5%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0% 100% Last Result
4 0.5% 100%  
5 3% 99.5%  
6 15% 97%  
7 82% 82% Median
8 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 87% 100% Last Result, Median
5 13% 13%  
6 0.3% 0.5%  
7 0.2% 0.2%  
8 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 1.4% 100%  
3 92% 98.6% Last Result, Median
4 6% 6%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 90 78 99.7% 78–79 77–81 77–81 76–81
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 75 12% 75–77 75–77 74–78 73–80
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 85 72 0.7% 72 70–75 69–75 69–76
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 74 72 2% 72–74 71–74 71–74 69–77
GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Socialistische Partij – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 80 68 0% 68–69 67–70 67–71 65–71
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 64 0% 64–66 64–68 64–68 63–68
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus 58 61 0% 61–63 61–65 61–65 60–65
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 76 61 0% 61 61–65 59–65 58–65
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 60 0% 60–61 60–63 60–63 59–64
GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 66 58 0% 58 57–59 56–60 54–60
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 54 57 0% 57–58 57–60 56–60 56–61
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 57 0% 57 57–59 56–60 53–61
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 71 55 0% 55–56 55–59 53–59 53–59
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 61 55 0% 55 53–57 52–58 51–58
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 53 0% 53–54 52–55 51–55 50–56
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 42 0% 42–43 42–45 40–45 40–45
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 42 0% 42 40–44 39–44 39–44
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 47 35 0% 35 34–37 33–38 33–38
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 28 0% 27–28 27–29 27–29 25–30
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 38 24 0% 24–25 24–26 24–26 23–28
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 22 0% 22 21–24 21–24 20–25

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.1% 100%  
75 0.3% 99.9%  
76 1.0% 99.7% Majority
77 5% 98.7%  
78 82% 94% Median
79 5% 12%  
80 0.9% 7%  
81 6% 6%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0% 99.9%  
73 2% 99.9%  
74 1.5% 98%  
75 84% 96% Median
76 0.6% 12% Majority
77 9% 11% Last Result
78 2% 3%  
79 0.4% 1.2%  
80 0.8% 0.8%  
81 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 3% 99.9%  
70 2% 97%  
71 2% 95%  
72 84% 93% Median
73 2% 9%  
74 0.7% 7%  
75 5% 6%  
76 0.6% 0.7% Majority
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 2% 100%  
70 0.1% 98%  
71 5% 98%  
72 81% 93% Median
73 0.8% 12%  
74 9% 11% Last Result
75 0.5% 2%  
76 0.6% 2% Majority
77 1.1% 1.1%  
78 0% 0%  

GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Socialistische Partij – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.8% 100%  
66 0.3% 99.1%  
67 6% 98.9%  
68 83% 93% Median
69 3% 11%  
70 2% 7%  
71 5% 5%  
72 0.2% 0.2%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Majority
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0% 99.9%  
63 1.0% 99.9%  
64 82% 98.9% Median
65 4% 17%  
66 6% 13%  
67 0.7% 8%  
68 7% 7%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100% Last Result
59 0% 99.9%  
60 1.0% 99.9%  
61 84% 98.9% Median
62 5% 15%  
63 2% 10%  
64 1.1% 8%  
65 6% 7%  
66 0.2% 0.3%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.6% 99.9%  
59 4% 99.4%  
60 0.4% 96%  
61 87% 95% Median
62 2% 9%  
63 0.5% 7%  
64 0.7% 6%  
65 5% 5%  
66 0.4% 0.5%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
58 0.1% 99.8%  
59 1.2% 99.7%  
60 84% 98% Median
61 5% 14%  
62 2% 10%  
63 6% 7%  
64 0.9% 0.9%  
65 0% 0%  

GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 1.0% 100%  
55 0.1% 99.0%  
56 2% 98.9%  
57 5% 97%  
58 84% 92% Median
59 4% 8%  
60 4% 4%  
61 0.1% 0.4%  
62 0.2% 0.2%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0% 99.9% Last Result
55 0.2% 99.9%  
56 3% 99.6%  
57 86% 96% Median
58 1.2% 11%  
59 3% 10%  
60 5% 7%  
61 1.5% 2%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 2% 100%  
54 0.1% 98%  
55 0.2% 98%  
56 1.3% 98%  
57 87% 96% Median
58 0.6% 10%  
59 6% 9%  
60 0.8% 3%  
61 2% 2%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 4% 99.9%  
54 0.3% 96%  
55 81% 96% Median
56 7% 15%  
57 2% 8%  
58 0.7% 6%  
59 5% 5%  
60 0.4% 0.5%  
61 0% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 1.0% 100%  
52 4% 99.0%  
53 0.8% 95%  
54 4% 95%  
55 81% 91% Median
56 4% 9%  
57 0.6% 5%  
58 5% 5%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 2% 99.9%  
51 1.3% 98%  
52 3% 96%  
53 81% 94% Median
54 6% 13%  
55 6% 7%  
56 0.8% 1.1%  
57 0.2% 0.3%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 3% 99.9%  
41 2% 97%  
42 83% 96% Median
43 4% 12%  
44 2% 9%  
45 7% 7%  
46 0.1% 0.2%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 3% 99.9%  
40 2% 97%  
41 4% 94%  
42 83% 90% Last Result, Median
43 1.0% 7%  
44 6% 6%  
45 0% 0.1%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 3% 99.9%  
34 3% 97%  
35 87% 95% Median
36 1.0% 8%  
37 4% 7%  
38 2% 3%  
39 0% 0.2%  
40 0.2% 0.2%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0% 100%  
25 1.0% 99.9%  
26 0.6% 98.9%  
27 9% 98%  
28 81% 89% Median
29 7% 8%  
30 1.1% 1.4%  
31 0.3% 0.3%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0% Last Result

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.3% 100%  
23 1.4% 99.7%  
24 85% 98% Median
25 6% 14%  
26 7% 7%  
27 0.2% 0.8%  
28 0.4% 0.6%  
29 0.2% 0.2%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.2% 100%  
20 0.4% 99.7%  
21 9% 99.4%  
22 82% 90% Median
23 2% 8%  
24 6% 6%  
25 0.6% 0.6%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations