Opinion Poll by Ipsos for EenVandaag, 27–30 July 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 21.5% 20.2–23.0% 19.8–23.4% 19.5–23.7% 18.9–24.4%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 12.0% 11.0–13.2% 10.7–13.5% 10.4–13.8% 10.0–14.4%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 10.2% 9.3–11.3% 9.0–11.6% 8.7–11.9% 8.3–12.4%
GroenLinks 9.1% 10.0% 9.0–11.1% 8.8–11.4% 8.6–11.7% 8.1–12.2%
Democraten 66 12.2% 8.9% 8.0–9.9% 7.7–10.2% 7.5–10.5% 7.1–11.0%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 7.6% 6.7–8.6% 6.5–8.8% 6.3–9.1% 5.9–9.5%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 6.2% 5.4–7.1% 5.2–7.3% 5.0–7.6% 4.7–8.0%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 5.1% 4.4–5.9% 4.2–6.1% 4.0–6.3% 3.7–6.8%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 4.9% 4.3–5.7% 4.1–6.0% 3.9–6.2% 3.6–6.6%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.3% 3.7–5.1% 3.5–5.3% 3.4–5.5% 3.1–5.9%
50Plus 3.1% 4.1% 3.5–4.9% 3.3–5.1% 3.2–5.3% 2.9–5.6%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.3% 1.9–2.9% 1.7–3.1% 1.6–3.2% 1.4–3.5%
DENK 2.1% 2.3% 1.9–2.9% 1.7–3.1% 1.6–3.2% 1.4–3.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 32 29–35 29–37 28–37 28–37
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 16 16–19 16–19 16–20 15–21
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 16 14–17 14–17 13–18 12–19
GroenLinks 14 15 14–18 13–18 13–18 13–18
Democraten 66 19 13 12–15 12–16 12–16 11–17
Socialistische Partij 14 12 10–12 10–13 10–14 9–14
Forum voor Democratie 2 8 8–11 8–11 8–11 7–12
Partij voor de Dieren 5 8 6–9 6–9 6–9 6–10
Partij van de Arbeid 9 8 6–9 6–9 6–9 5–10
ChristenUnie 5 7 5–8 5–9 5–9 4–9
50Plus 4 7 5–7 5–7 5–8 4–9
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 3 3–4 2–4 2–4 2–5
DENK 3 3 3–4 3–4 2–4 2–5

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 4% 100%  
29 9% 96%  
30 8% 88%  
31 4% 80%  
32 51% 76% Median
33 10% 25% Last Result
34 3% 15%  
35 6% 12%  
36 2% 7%  
37 5% 5%  
38 0.4% 0.5%  
39 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0% 100%  
15 1.0% 99.9%  
16 57% 99.0% Median
17 6% 41%  
18 14% 35%  
19 17% 21%  
20 3% 4% Last Result
21 1.0% 1.1%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.6% 100%  
13 2% 99.4%  
14 24% 97%  
15 8% 73%  
16 46% 64% Median
17 15% 19%  
18 3% 3%  
19 0.8% 0.9% Last Result
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.3% 100%  
13 7% 99.7%  
14 9% 93% Last Result
15 57% 84% Median
16 10% 27%  
17 3% 17%  
18 14% 14%  
19 0.2% 0.2%  
20 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 2% 99.8%  
12 18% 98%  
13 47% 80% Median
14 17% 33%  
15 10% 16%  
16 5% 6%  
17 0.6% 0.6%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 2% 99.9%  
10 16% 98%  
11 20% 82%  
12 53% 63% Median
13 6% 9%  
14 3% 4% Last Result
15 0.2% 0.2%  
16 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0.1% 100%  
7 2% 99.9%  
8 52% 98% Median
9 14% 46%  
10 20% 32%  
11 11% 12%  
12 0.8% 1.0%  
13 0.2% 0.2%  
14 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100% Last Result
6 11% 99.8%  
7 25% 88%  
8 19% 63% Median
9 43% 45%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 2% 100%  
6 9% 98%  
7 10% 89%  
8 67% 79% Median
9 9% 12% Last Result
10 2% 2%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.5% 100%  
5 18% 99.5% Last Result
6 18% 82%  
7 51% 63% Median
8 6% 13%  
9 7% 7%  
10 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 1.1% 100% Last Result
5 11% 98.9%  
6 31% 88%  
7 54% 57% Median
8 1.5% 3%  
9 1.5% 1.5%  
10 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 7% 100%  
3 70% 93% Last Result, Median
4 21% 23%  
5 2% 2%  
6 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 3% 99.9%  
3 59% 97% Last Result, Median
4 35% 38%  
5 2% 2%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 90 83 100% 81–85 78–86 77–86 77–87
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 76 53% 75–82 75–82 74–83 74–85
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 74 72 18% 72–78 72–79 71–80 71–82
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 85 76 63% 73–77 71–79 71–79 70–80
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 80 71 0.1% 67–72 66–74 64–74 64–75
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 66 0% 64–69 63–71 62–73 61–73
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 68 0% 65–70 63–71 62–72 62–72
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 64 0% 62–68 62–70 62–70 62–73
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 63 0% 61–66 59–68 59–70 58–70
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 61 0% 58–63 57–65 57–66 56–66
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 59 0% 58–63 57–65 55–66 55–66
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 56 0% 55–60 53–62 52–63 52–63
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 66 59 0% 56–61 54–61 54–62 54–62
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 56 0% 53–59 52–59 52–59 51–61
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 61 53 0% 52–56 50–57 50–57 49–59
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 48 0% 45–51 44–52 44–52 43–53
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 40 0% 37–42 37–45 36–45 36–46
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 47 37 0% 34–39 34–40 33–40 31–41
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 31 0% 27–31 26–32 26–33 25–34
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 29 0% 26–32 26–32 26–32 25–33
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 24 0% 21–25 20–25 20–26 19–26

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 4% 100%  
78 0.8% 96%  
79 0.7% 95%  
80 3% 94%  
81 12% 92%  
82 4% 79%  
83 47% 76% Median
84 7% 28%  
85 12% 21%  
86 8% 10%  
87 1.2% 2%  
88 0.2% 0.3%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.2% 100%  
74 4% 99.8%  
75 43% 96% Median
76 17% 53% Majority
77 14% 36% Last Result
78 3% 22%  
79 4% 19%  
80 2% 15%  
81 1.3% 13%  
82 9% 12%  
83 1.1% 3%  
84 1.0% 2%  
85 0.7% 0.7%  
86 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.2% 100%  
71 4% 99.8%  
72 51% 95% Median
73 14% 44%  
74 9% 31% Last Result
75 4% 22%  
76 2% 18% Majority
77 3% 16%  
78 6% 13%  
79 5% 7%  
80 0.8% 3%  
81 1.1% 2%  
82 0.7% 0.8%  
83 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.9% 100%  
71 4% 99.1%  
72 2% 95%  
73 6% 92%  
74 16% 87%  
75 7% 70%  
76 46% 63% Median, Majority
77 9% 17%  
78 3% 8%  
79 5% 5%  
80 0.5% 0.6%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 4% 99.9%  
65 0.4% 96%  
66 3% 95%  
67 10% 92%  
68 2% 82%  
69 5% 79%  
70 4% 75%  
71 47% 71% Median
72 17% 23%  
73 1.0% 7%  
74 5% 6%  
75 0.9% 1.0%  
76 0.1% 0.1% Majority
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.9% 100% Last Result
62 4% 99.1%  
63 4% 95%  
64 9% 91%  
65 11% 82%  
66 51% 72% Median
67 2% 20%  
68 4% 19%  
69 6% 15%  
70 3% 8%  
71 0.5% 5%  
72 0.9% 5%  
73 4% 4%  
74 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 5% 100%  
63 0.2% 95%  
64 0.5% 95%  
65 6% 94%  
66 11% 89%  
67 11% 77%  
68 48% 66% Median
69 8% 19%  
70 4% 10%  
71 1.4% 6%  
72 5% 5%  
73 0.3% 0.4%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.3% 100%  
62 11% 99.7%  
63 16% 89%  
64 47% 73% Median
65 6% 27%  
66 4% 21%  
67 2% 17%  
68 5% 15%  
69 2% 9%  
70 5% 7%  
71 1.3% 2%  
72 0.1% 1.2% Last Result
73 1.0% 1.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.3% 100%  
58 1.0% 99.7% Last Result
59 4% 98.7%  
60 2% 94%  
61 9% 92%  
62 25% 83%  
63 38% 59% Median
64 3% 21%  
65 7% 18%  
66 3% 11%  
67 3% 8%  
68 0.6% 5%  
69 0.9% 5%  
70 4% 4%  
71 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.9% 99.9%  
57 5% 99.1%  
58 10% 94%  
59 5% 84%  
60 3% 79%  
61 53% 76% Median
62 6% 23%  
63 8% 17%  
64 3% 10%  
65 3% 7%  
66 4% 4%  
67 0.1% 0.2%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 4% 100%  
56 1.0% 96%  
57 4% 95% Last Result
58 13% 92%  
59 44% 79% Median
60 10% 35%  
61 8% 24%  
62 3% 16%  
63 7% 14%  
64 0.6% 7%  
65 2% 6%  
66 4% 4%  
67 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 4% 100%  
53 2% 96%  
54 1.5% 94% Last Result
55 14% 92%  
56 52% 79% Median
57 8% 27%  
58 3% 19%  
59 6% 16%  
60 4% 10%  
61 0.3% 7%  
62 2% 6%  
63 4% 4%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0% 99.9%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.3% 99.8%  
54 5% 99.5%  
55 2% 95%  
56 8% 92%  
57 9% 84%  
58 5% 76%  
59 40% 71% Median
60 13% 31%  
61 15% 18%  
62 3% 3%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.3% 99.9%  
51 1.4% 99.6%  
52 7% 98%  
53 8% 91%  
54 17% 83%  
55 6% 66%  
56 41% 59% Median
57 6% 18%  
58 2% 12%  
59 8% 10%  
60 1.3% 2%  
61 0.4% 0.5% Last Result
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 2% 99.9%  
50 5% 98%  
51 1.4% 93%  
52 22% 92%  
53 45% 69% Median
54 6% 25%  
55 6% 18%  
56 6% 12%  
57 6% 7%  
58 0.5% 1.3%  
59 0.5% 0.8%  
60 0.3% 0.3%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.8% 100%  
44 8% 99.2%  
45 3% 91%  
46 19% 89%  
47 12% 70%  
48 40% 58% Median
49 4% 19%  
50 1.3% 15%  
51 8% 13%  
52 5% 6% Last Result
53 0.7% 0.8%  
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100%  
35 0.1% 99.9%  
36 4% 99.8%  
37 10% 96%  
38 8% 85%  
39 8% 77%  
40 46% 69% Median
41 10% 23%  
42 5% 13% Last Result
43 2% 8%  
44 0.4% 5%  
45 4% 5%  
46 0.5% 0.7%  
47 0.2% 0.2%  
48 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.7% 100%  
32 0.5% 99.3%  
33 2% 98.8%  
34 13% 96%  
35 2% 84%  
36 17% 82%  
37 41% 65% Median
38 13% 24%  
39 0.8% 10%  
40 9% 10%  
41 0.7% 0.8%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.2% 99.9%  
25 0.2% 99.7%  
26 5% 99.5%  
27 5% 94%  
28 11% 90%  
29 7% 79%  
30 16% 72%  
31 49% 56% Median
32 4% 6%  
33 1.1% 3% Last Result
34 2% 2%  
35 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.8% 99.9%  
26 12% 99.1%  
27 8% 87%  
28 10% 79%  
29 41% 69% Median
30 9% 27%  
31 8% 18%  
32 10% 11%  
33 0.4% 0.7%  
34 0.2% 0.2%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 1.2% 99.9%  
20 6% 98.7%  
21 3% 93%  
22 18% 90%  
23 6% 72%  
24 51% 65% Median
25 10% 14%  
26 3% 4%  
27 0.4% 0.5%  
28 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations