Opinion Poll by Peil.nl, 13–19 August 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 19.3% 18.4–20.3% 18.2–20.6% 18.0–20.8% 17.5–21.3%
GroenLinks 9.1% 10.7% 10.0–11.4% 9.8–11.6% 9.6–11.8% 9.3–12.2%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 10.0% 9.3–10.7% 9.1–10.9% 9.0–11.1% 8.7–11.5%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 10.0% 9.3–10.7% 9.1–10.9% 9.0–11.1% 8.7–11.5%
Democraten 66 12.2% 8.7% 8.0–9.4% 7.8–9.6% 7.7–9.7% 7.4–10.1%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 8.0% 7.4–8.7% 7.2–8.9% 7.1–9.0% 6.8–9.4%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 8.0% 7.4–8.7% 7.2–8.9% 7.1–9.0% 6.8–9.4%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 7.3% 6.8–8.0% 6.6–8.2% 6.4–8.3% 6.2–8.6%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 4.7% 4.2–5.2% 4.1–5.3% 4.0–5.5% 3.7–5.8%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.0% 3.6–4.5% 3.4–4.6% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.0%
DENK 2.1% 4.0% 3.6–4.5% 3.4–4.6% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.0%
50Plus 3.1% 3.3% 2.9–3.8% 2.8–3.9% 2.7–4.0% 2.6–4.3%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 29 27–30 27–31 27–32 27–33
GroenLinks 14 17 16–17 15–17 15–18 14–19
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 14 13–16 13–17 13–18 13–18
Forum voor Democratie 2 16 14–16 14–16 13–16 13–18
Democraten 66 19 14 12–14 12–14 11–14 11–15
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 13 11–13 11–13 11–14 10–14
Socialistische Partij 14 12 11–13 10–13 10–13 10–14
Partij van de Arbeid 9 12 11–12 10–12 10–12 9–13
Partij voor de Dieren 5 7 5–8 5–8 5–8 5–8
ChristenUnie 5 6 5–7 5–7 5–7 5–7
DENK 3 6 5–7 5–8 5–8 4–8
50Plus 4 5 4–5 4–6 4–6 3–7
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 2 2–4 2–4 2–4 2–4

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.2% 99.9%  
27 49% 99.7%  
28 0.1% 51%  
29 26% 51% Median
30 18% 24%  
31 2% 6%  
32 4% 4%  
33 0.5% 0.6% Last Result
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.3% 100%  
14 0.7% 99.7% Last Result
15 7% 99.0%  
16 36% 92%  
17 53% 55% Median
18 1.3% 3%  
19 1.3% 1.3%  
20 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 45% 100%  
14 7% 55% Median
15 14% 48%  
16 27% 34%  
17 3% 7%  
18 4% 4%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0% Last Result

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0.1% 100%  
13 5% 99.9%  
14 9% 95%  
15 13% 86%  
16 70% 73% Median
17 0.5% 2%  
18 2% 2%  
19 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 5% 99.9%  
12 32% 95%  
13 6% 63%  
14 55% 57% Median
15 2% 2%  
16 0.2% 0.2%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 1.1% 100%  
11 24% 98.9%  
12 17% 75%  
13 54% 57% Median
14 3% 3%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 6% 100%  
11 31% 94%  
12 49% 62% Median
13 13% 13%  
14 0.5% 0.6% Last Result
15 0% 0.1%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 1.0% 100% Last Result
10 8% 99.0%  
11 38% 91%  
12 51% 53% Median
13 1.2% 1.2%  
14 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 12% 100% Last Result
6 21% 88%  
7 54% 66% Median
8 12% 12%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.4% 100%  
5 15% 99.6% Last Result
6 60% 84% Median
7 24% 24%  
8 0.4% 0.4%  
9 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0% 100% Last Result
4 2% 100%  
5 13% 98%  
6 57% 86% Median
7 23% 29%  
8 6% 6%  
9 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 1.0% 100%  
4 13% 99.0% Last Result
5 81% 86% Median
6 4% 6%  
7 2% 2%  
8 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 60% 99.9% Median
3 26% 40% Last Result
4 14% 14%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 90 77 72% 75–77 75–79 74–79 72–81
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 73 28% 71–77 71–78 71–78 71–78
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 74 70 0.8% 69–74 69–75 69–75 68–76
GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Socialistische Partij – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 80 72 0% 68–74 67–74 67–74 66–74
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 85 72 0.3% 70–72 69–73 69–73 68–75
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 63 0% 63–65 62–66 62–67 60–67
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus 58 61 0% 61–62 59–63 59–64 58–65
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 76 60 0% 59–61 58–62 58–63 57–64
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 58 0% 58–61 58–61 57–62 56–63
GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 66 59 0% 57–62 57–62 56–62 55–62
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 55 0% 53–58 53–59 53–60 53–61
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 54 56 0% 55–58 55–58 54–59 54–60
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 71 54 0% 52–56 52–56 52–57 51–58
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 61 53 0% 52–55 51–56 50–56 50–57
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 52 0% 51–54 51–54 50–55 49–56
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 40 0% 40–42 40–43 39–44 39–45
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 39 0% 39–42 38–42 38–43 38–44
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 47 37 0% 34–39 34–39 34–39 33–39
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 31 0% 28–31 28–31 27–31 25–31
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 38 26 0% 23–27 23–27 23–27 22–28
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 24 0% 22–25 22–25 22–25 20–26

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.2% 100%  
72 0.5% 99.8%  
73 0.2% 99.3%  
74 2% 99.1%  
75 25% 97%  
76 13% 72% Majority
77 49% 59%  
78 4% 10%  
79 3% 6% Median
80 2% 2%  
81 0.3% 0.6%  
82 0.3% 0.3%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.3% 100%  
71 44% 99.7%  
72 3% 56%  
73 9% 52%  
74 8% 44% Median
75 8% 36%  
76 17% 28% Majority
77 6% 11% Last Result
78 5% 5%  
79 0.2% 0.5%  
80 0.2% 0.2%  
81 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.7% 100%  
69 46% 99.3%  
70 8% 53%  
71 8% 45%  
72 12% 37% Median
73 14% 24%  
74 2% 10% Last Result
75 8% 8%  
76 0.6% 0.8% Majority
77 0.2% 0.2%  
78 0% 0%  

GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Socialistische Partij – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 2% 99.9%  
67 4% 98%  
68 21% 93%  
69 9% 72%  
70 7% 63%  
71 5% 56%  
72 6% 51%  
73 1.5% 45%  
74 44% 44% Median
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0% Majority
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0% 99.9%  
68 0.6% 99.9%  
69 7% 99.3%  
70 19% 92%  
71 10% 73%  
72 53% 63%  
73 7% 10%  
74 2% 2% Median
75 0.4% 0.6%  
76 0.3% 0.3% Majority
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.6% 100%  
61 0.4% 99.4% Last Result
62 5% 98.9%  
63 47% 94%  
64 20% 47%  
65 22% 27% Median
66 1.4% 5%  
67 4% 4%  
68 0.2% 0.4%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.4% 100%  
58 0.2% 99.6% Last Result
59 4% 99.3%  
60 4% 95%  
61 67% 91%  
62 16% 24%  
63 4% 8% Median
64 3% 4%  
65 0.6% 0.7%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.3% 100%  
57 0.9% 99.6%  
58 6% 98.7%  
59 20% 93%  
60 54% 73%  
61 10% 18%  
62 4% 9% Median
63 4% 4%  
64 0.4% 0.6%  
65 0.2% 0.2%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.4% 100%  
56 0.5% 99.6%  
57 3% 99.2% Last Result
58 53% 96%  
59 15% 43%  
60 17% 28% Median
61 7% 11%  
62 4% 4%  
63 0.3% 0.5%  
64 0.2% 0.3%  
65 0% 0%  

GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.2% 99.9%  
55 1.3% 99.7%  
56 2% 98%  
57 29% 96%  
58 10% 67%  
59 9% 56%  
60 3% 47%  
61 0.6% 45%  
62 44% 44% Median
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.2% 100%  
53 44% 99.8%  
54 2% 56%  
55 4% 54%  
56 21% 50% Median
57 11% 29%  
58 10% 18%  
59 5% 8%  
60 0.3% 3%  
61 2% 2%  
62 0.3% 0.3%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.4% 100%  
53 0% 99.6%  
54 2% 99.6% Last Result
55 10% 97%  
56 62% 88%  
57 11% 25%  
58 10% 14% Median
59 3% 4%  
60 0.4% 0.7%  
61 0.3% 0.3%  
62 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.5% 99.9%  
52 14% 99.3%  
53 18% 85%  
54 51% 68%  
55 4% 16%  
56 10% 13% Median
57 0.8% 3%  
58 2% 2%  
59 0.2% 0.3%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0% 100%  
49 0.1% 99.9%  
50 2% 99.9%  
51 4% 97%  
52 20% 93%  
53 57% 73%  
54 4% 15%  
55 5% 11% Median
56 6% 6%  
57 0.3% 0.8%  
58 0.4% 0.5%  
59 0% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 1.0% 100%  
50 3% 99.0%  
51 16% 96%  
52 62% 80%  
53 3% 18%  
54 11% 15% Median
55 4% 4%  
56 0.3% 0.6%  
57 0.3% 0.3%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.2% 99.9%  
39 3% 99.7%  
40 59% 97%  
41 17% 37%  
42 11% 21% Median
43 5% 9%  
44 2% 4%  
45 2% 2%  
46 0.2% 0.2%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.3% 100%  
38 5% 99.6%  
39 50% 95%  
40 20% 44%  
41 13% 25% Median
42 8% 12% Last Result
43 3% 4%  
44 0.4% 0.6%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.9% 99.9%  
34 21% 99.0%  
35 12% 78%  
36 9% 66%  
37 8% 57%  
38 5% 49%  
39 44% 44% Median
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.8% 100%  
26 0.7% 99.2%  
27 3% 98%  
28 7% 96%  
29 34% 88%  
30 4% 54%  
31 50% 50% Median
32 0.2% 0.2%  
33 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
34 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.8% 99.9%  
23 19% 99.1%  
24 16% 80%  
25 6% 64%  
26 10% 58%  
27 47% 48% Median
28 0.8% 0.9%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.9% 100%  
21 1.3% 99.1%  
22 23% 98%  
23 16% 75%  
24 11% 58%  
25 47% 47% Median
26 0.5% 0.5%  
27 0% 0.1%  
28 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations