Opinion Poll by Peil.nl, 20–26 August 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 19.3% 18.4–20.3% 18.2–20.6% 18.0–20.8% 17.5–21.3%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 10.7% 10.0–11.4% 9.8–11.6% 9.6–11.8% 9.3–12.2%
GroenLinks 9.1% 10.7% 10.0–11.4% 9.8–11.6% 9.6–11.8% 9.3–12.2%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 10.7% 10.0–11.4% 9.8–11.6% 9.6–11.8% 9.3–12.2%
Democraten 66 12.2% 8.0% 7.4–8.7% 7.2–8.9% 7.1–9.0% 6.8–9.4%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 8.0% 7.4–8.7% 7.2–8.9% 7.1–9.0% 6.8–9.4%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 7.3% 6.8–8.0% 6.6–8.2% 6.4–8.3% 6.2–8.6%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 7.3% 6.8–8.0% 6.6–8.2% 6.4–8.3% 6.2–8.6%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 4.7% 4.2–5.2% 4.1–5.3% 4.0–5.5% 3.7–5.8%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.0% 3.6–4.5% 3.4–4.6% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.0%
DENK 2.1% 4.0% 3.6–4.5% 3.4–4.6% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.0%
50Plus 3.1% 3.3% 2.9–3.8% 2.8–3.9% 2.7–4.0% 2.6–4.3%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 30 30 30 30 29–31
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 17 17 17 16–17 15–17
GroenLinks 14 16 16 16 16 16–18
Forum voor Democratie 2 15 15 15 15–16 15–17
Democraten 66 19 12 12 12 12 11–13
Socialistische Partij 14 13 13 13 11–13 11–13
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 11 11 11 11 9–12
Partij van de Arbeid 9 11 11 11 11 11–12
Partij voor de Dieren 5 7 7 7 7 6–8
ChristenUnie 5 6 6 6 6 5–6
DENK 3 6 6 6 6 4–6
50Plus 4 4 4 4 4–5 4–6
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 2 2 2 2–3 2–3

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.2% 100%  
29 2% 99.7%  
30 97% 98% Median
31 0.7% 0.7%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0% Last Result

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 1.2% 100%  
16 3% 98.8%  
17 96% 96% Median
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0% Last Result

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.2% 100% Last Result
15 0% 99.8%  
16 98% 99.8% Median
17 0.4% 1.4%  
18 1.1% 1.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 96% 100% Median
16 1.4% 4%  
17 2% 2%  
18 0.2% 0.2%  
19 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 1.1% 99.9%  
12 97% 98.8% Median
13 2% 2%  
14 0% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.2% 100%  
11 3% 99.8%  
12 2% 97%  
13 95% 95% Median
14 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 2% 100%  
10 0.4% 98%  
11 95% 98% Median
12 2% 2%  
13 0.5% 0.5%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 0.5% 100%  
11 97% 99.5% Median
12 2% 2%  
13 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0% 100% Last Result
6 2% 100%  
7 97% 98% Median
8 1.4% 1.4%  
9 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 1.2% 100% Last Result
6 98.5% 98.8% Median
7 0.3% 0.3%  
8 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0% 100% Last Result
4 0.7% 100%  
5 1.1% 99.3%  
6 98% 98% Median
7 0.3% 0.3%  
8 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 96% 100% Last Result, Median
5 3% 4%  
6 1.1% 1.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 96% 100% Median
3 4% 4% Last Result
4 0.3% 0.3%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 75 2% 75 75 75 74–78
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 90 75 2% 75 75 74–75 73–76
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 74 73 0.1% 73 73 72–73 71–75
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 85 70 0% 70 70 69–70 69–72
GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 80 69 0% 69 69 68–69 66–71
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 62 0% 62 62 62–64 62–66
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus 58 60 0% 60 60 60–61 60–63
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 76 59 0% 59 59 58–59 58–60
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 58 0% 58 58 58–59 58–62
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 58 0% 58 58 56–58 55–59
GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 66 56 0% 56 56 56–57 55–59
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 54 56 0% 56 56 56 56–59
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 61 53 0% 53 53 53–54 51–55
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 71 53 0% 53 53 52–53 51–55
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 52 0% 52 52 51–52 50–55
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 41 0% 41 41 41 39–43
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 41 0% 41 41 40–41 39–43
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 47 34 0% 34 34 34–35 33–36
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 28 0% 28 28 28 26–30
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 38 23 0% 23 23 23 22–25
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 22 0% 22 22 22–23 20–24

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.2% 100%  
74 1.1% 99.8%  
75 97% 98.7% Median
76 0.7% 2% Majority
77 0.4% 1.0% Last Result
78 0.7% 0.7%  
79 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.2% 99.9%  
73 0.3% 99.7%  
74 2% 99.5%  
75 95% 97% Median
76 2% 2% Majority
77 0.2% 0.2%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 1.2% 99.9%  
72 2% 98.7%  
73 95% 97% Median
74 0.4% 1.3% Last Result
75 0.8% 0.9%  
76 0.1% 0.1% Majority
77 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.2% 99.8%  
69 2% 99.7%  
70 96% 97% Median
71 0.4% 1.0%  
72 0.6% 0.6%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Majority
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Last Result

GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 2% 99.9%  
67 0.3% 98%  
68 1.1% 98%  
69 95% 96% Median
70 0.2% 1.3%  
71 1.0% 1.0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Majority
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 95% 100% Median
63 0.5% 5%  
64 2% 4%  
65 1.3% 2%  
66 0.8% 0.8%  
67 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100% Last Result
59 0.2% 100%  
60 95% 99.8% Median
61 3% 5%  
62 1.4% 2%  
63 0.8% 0.8%  
64 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.3% 99.8%  
58 3% 99.6%  
59 95% 96% Median
60 1.2% 1.2%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100% Last Result
58 95% 99.9% Median
59 3% 5%  
60 0.5% 1.3%  
61 0.2% 0.8%  
62 0.6% 0.6%  
63 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.2% 100%  
55 2% 99.8%  
56 1.3% 98%  
57 0.2% 96%  
58 95% 96% Median
59 1.1% 1.1%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.2% 99.9%  
55 2% 99.7%  
56 95% 98% Median
57 1.2% 3%  
58 0% 1.3%  
59 1.2% 1.2%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100% Last Result
55 0.3% 100%  
56 98% 99.7% Median
57 0.5% 1.5%  
58 0.3% 1.0%  
59 0.7% 0.7%  
60 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.6% 100%  
52 1.2% 99.3%  
53 96% 98% Median
54 2% 3%  
55 0.7% 0.7%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.1% 99.9%  
51 0.4% 99.8%  
52 3% 99.5%  
53 95% 96% Median
54 0.5% 1.3%  
55 0.8% 0.8%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.2% 100%  
50 2% 99.8%  
51 0.3% 98%  
52 95% 97% Median
53 1.3% 2%  
54 0.1% 0.7%  
55 0.6% 0.6%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.2% 100%  
39 0.4% 99.8%  
40 0.4% 99.4%  
41 98% 99.1% Median
42 0% 0.7% Last Result
43 0.7% 0.7%  
44 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 2% 100%  
40 0.4% 98%  
41 96% 97% Median
42 0.7% 1.3%  
43 0.6% 0.6%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0% Last Result

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.1% 99.9%  
32 0% 99.9%  
33 2% 99.8%  
34 95% 98% Median
35 2% 3%  
36 0.6% 0.9%  
37 0.2% 0.2%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 2% 100%  
27 0.2% 98%  
28 95% 98% Median
29 1.4% 2%  
30 1.0% 1.0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0% Last Result

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.1% 99.9%  
21 0% 99.9%  
22 2% 99.8%  
23 96% 98% Median
24 0.9% 1.4%  
25 0.3% 0.5%  
26 0.2% 0.2%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 2% 100%  
21 0.4% 98%  
22 95% 98% Median
23 0.8% 3%  
24 2% 2%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations