Opinion Poll by Ipsos for EenVandaag, 31 August–3 September 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 20.3% 18.8–22.0% 18.3–22.4% 18.0–22.8% 17.2–23.7%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 11.9% 10.7–13.2% 10.3–13.6% 10.0–14.0% 9.5–14.7%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 11.2% 10.0–12.5% 9.7–12.9% 9.4–13.3% 8.9–13.9%
GroenLinks 9.1% 10.2% 9.1–11.5% 8.8–11.9% 8.5–12.2% 8.0–12.9%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 9.3% 8.2–10.5% 7.9–10.9% 7.7–11.2% 7.2–11.8%
Democraten 66 12.2% 8.7% 7.7–9.9% 7.4–10.3% 7.1–10.6% 6.7–11.2%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 5.7% 4.9–6.8% 4.7–7.1% 4.5–7.3% 4.1–7.8%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 5.4% 4.6–6.4% 4.3–6.6% 4.1–6.9% 3.8–7.4%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 4.7% 3.9–5.6% 3.7–5.9% 3.6–6.2% 3.2–6.6%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.3% 3.6–5.2% 3.4–5.5% 3.2–5.7% 2.9–6.2%
50Plus 3.1% 3.7% 3.1–4.6% 2.9–4.8% 2.7–5.1% 2.5–5.5%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.1% 1.6–2.8% 1.5–3.0% 1.4–3.2% 1.2–3.5%
DENK 2.1% 1.8% 1.4–2.5% 1.3–2.7% 1.2–2.8% 1.0–3.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 30 29–34 29–34 28–34 27–37
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 17 17–20 15–20 15–20 15–22
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 18 15–19 14–19 14–19 13–20
GroenLinks 14 17 14–18 14–18 13–19 12–20
Socialistische Partij 14 14 12–15 12–15 12–15 11–17
Democraten 66 19 13 13–14 11–16 11–16 10–16
Forum voor Democratie 2 7 7–10 7–10 7–10 6–12
Partij van de Arbeid 9 8 6–9 6–9 6–10 5–10
Partij voor de Dieren 5 8 6–8 5–9 5–10 4–10
ChristenUnie 5 6 5–7 5–8 5–8 4–9
50Plus 4 5 4–7 4–7 4–8 3–8
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 3 2–4 2–4 2–5 1–5
DENK 3 2 1–3 1–3 1–4 1–4

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0% 99.9%  
26 0.2% 99.9%  
27 0.5% 99.7%  
28 3% 99.2%  
29 9% 97%  
30 47% 87% Median
31 7% 40%  
32 10% 34%  
33 4% 24% Last Result
34 18% 20%  
35 0.4% 2%  
36 0.8% 1.5%  
37 0.6% 0.7%  
38 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.1% 99.9%  
15 5% 99.8%  
16 3% 94%  
17 48% 91% Median
18 11% 43%  
19 18% 33%  
20 12% 15% Last Result
21 0.9% 2%  
22 1.3% 2%  
23 0.2% 0.3%  
24 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 0.5% 99.9%  
14 6% 99.5%  
15 5% 93%  
16 4% 88%  
17 22% 84%  
18 16% 62% Median
19 45% 46% Last Result
20 0.4% 0.9%  
21 0.3% 0.5%  
22 0.2% 0.2%  
23 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 0.8% 99.9%  
13 3% 99.1%  
14 9% 96% Last Result
15 14% 87%  
16 20% 73%  
17 43% 53% Median
18 6% 10%  
19 2% 4%  
20 2% 2%  
21 0% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 2% 99.9%  
12 15% 98%  
13 14% 83%  
14 52% 69% Last Result, Median
15 15% 17%  
16 1.3% 2%  
17 0.8% 0.9%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 1.4% 100%  
11 4% 98.5%  
12 5% 95%  
13 60% 90% Median
14 20% 30%  
15 2% 10%  
16 7% 7%  
17 0.4% 0.5%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0.9% 100%  
7 63% 99.0% Median
8 12% 36%  
9 13% 24%  
10 10% 11%  
11 1.0% 2%  
12 0.5% 0.5%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 1.3% 100%  
6 10% 98.7%  
7 13% 89%  
8 64% 75% Median
9 8% 11% Last Result
10 3% 3%  
11 0.2% 0.3%  
12 0% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 1.2% 100%  
5 5% 98.8% Last Result
6 23% 94%  
7 13% 71%  
8 52% 58% Median
9 4% 6%  
10 2% 3%  
11 0.3% 0.3%  
12 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 1.3% 100%  
5 15% 98.7% Last Result
6 54% 83% Median
7 24% 30%  
8 4% 5%  
9 1.2% 1.3%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 2% 100%  
4 15% 98% Last Result
5 61% 82% Median
6 6% 21%  
7 12% 16%  
8 3% 3%  
9 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.5% 100%  
2 14% 99.5%  
3 35% 85% Last Result, Median
4 46% 50%  
5 4% 4%  
6 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 14% 100%  
2 61% 86% Median
3 22% 26% Last Result
4 3% 4%  
5 0.2% 0.3%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 90 85 99.6% 81–88 80–88 78–88 76–89
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 77 92% 76–80 74–80 74–80 73–83
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 85 76 73% 73–80 72–80 71–80 69–81
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 74 73 33% 73–77 71–78 71–78 69–80
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 80 75 46% 72–77 71–77 70–77 69–79
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 68 0% 65–72 65–72 63–72 61–73
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 65 0% 63–68 62–71 62–71 60–71
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 66 0% 64–70 63–70 63–70 61–71
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 61 0% 60–65 59–68 57–68 56–69
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 62 0% 60–65 58–65 57–65 55–66
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 66 62 0% 59–63 56–63 56–64 54–65
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 60 0% 58–61 56–64 56–64 54–64
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 56 0% 54–58 53–61 53–61 52–62
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 57 0% 53–59 52–59 51–60 51–63
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 61 51 0% 49–56 48–56 48–56 47–58
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 49 0% 46–51 45–52 45–52 43–54
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 38 0% 37–42 36–42 35–42 34–46
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 47 39 0% 36–40 35–40 34–41 33–43
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 32 0% 29–33 27–33 26–34 26–36
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 32 0% 29–32 28–32 27–32 26–35
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 26 0% 23–27 21–27 20–27 20–29

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.2% 100%  
75 0.2% 99.8%  
76 0.3% 99.6% Majority
77 0.3% 99.3%  
78 2% 99.0%  
79 0.6% 97%  
80 6% 97%  
81 4% 91%  
82 1.5% 87%  
83 12% 86%  
84 4% 74% Median
85 47% 69%  
86 6% 22%  
87 1.2% 16%  
88 15% 15%  
89 0.4% 0.5%  
90 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
91 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 99.9%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.2% 99.8%  
73 1.2% 99.6%  
74 5% 98%  
75 0.8% 93% Median
76 5% 92% Majority
77 44% 87% Last Result
78 11% 43%  
79 14% 33%  
80 16% 18%  
81 1.0% 2%  
82 0.2% 1.4%  
83 1.1% 1.2%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0.1% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.2% 100%  
66 0% 99.8%  
67 0.1% 99.8%  
68 0% 99.8%  
69 0.3% 99.7%  
70 0.2% 99.5%  
71 3% 99.2%  
72 3% 97%  
73 9% 93%  
74 9% 84%  
75 2% 75% Median
76 48% 73% Majority
77 2% 25%  
78 1.5% 23%  
79 7% 21%  
80 13% 15%  
81 1.3% 1.4%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.3% 99.9%  
69 0.5% 99.6%  
70 0.3% 99.1%  
71 5% 98.8%  
72 2% 94% Median
73 49% 92%  
74 4% 43% Last Result
75 6% 39%  
76 8% 33% Majority
77 19% 25%  
78 3% 5%  
79 0.2% 2%  
80 1.2% 1.4%  
81 0.1% 0.2%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 99.9%  
68 0.3% 99.9%  
69 2% 99.6%  
70 0.7% 98%  
71 5% 97%  
72 10% 92%  
73 3% 83%  
74 24% 79%  
75 9% 55%  
76 2% 46% Median, Majority
77 42% 44%  
78 0.6% 2%  
79 1.4% 2%  
80 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
81 0% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.2% 100%  
59 0% 99.8%  
60 0.2% 99.8%  
61 0.1% 99.6%  
62 0.3% 99.5%  
63 2% 99.1%  
64 2% 97%  
65 7% 96%  
66 3% 89%  
67 12% 86% Median
68 51% 74%  
69 1.5% 24%  
70 1.2% 22%  
71 2% 21%  
72 19% 19%  
73 0.3% 0.6%  
74 0.1% 0.3%  
75 0.1% 0.2%  
76 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.2% 100%  
59 0.3% 99.8%  
60 0.6% 99.5%  
61 0.6% 98.9% Last Result
62 5% 98%  
63 14% 94% Median
64 9% 80%  
65 44% 71%  
66 15% 27%  
67 2% 12%  
68 4% 11%  
69 0.6% 7%  
70 0.6% 6%  
71 5% 5%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.2% 100%  
60 0.2% 99.8%  
61 0.4% 99.6%  
62 1.5% 99.2%  
63 6% 98%  
64 4% 92%  
65 8% 88% Median
66 46% 80%  
67 9% 34%  
68 3% 25%  
69 1.2% 21%  
70 19% 20%  
71 0.6% 1.1%  
72 0.4% 0.4% Last Result
73 0% 0.1%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.3% 100%  
56 0.2% 99.7%  
57 3% 99.4%  
58 0.7% 96% Last Result
59 2% 95%  
60 10% 93% Median
61 49% 83%  
62 4% 34%  
63 18% 29%  
64 0.6% 12%  
65 4% 11%  
66 0.9% 7%  
67 0.5% 6%  
68 5% 5%  
69 0.6% 0.7%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.4% 100%  
55 0.1% 99.6%  
56 1.0% 99.5%  
57 1.2% 98%  
58 3% 97%  
59 2% 94%  
60 9% 93%  
61 12% 84% Median
62 43% 72%  
63 7% 29%  
64 4% 22%  
65 17% 19%  
66 0.7% 1.0%  
67 0.1% 0.3%  
68 0.2% 0.2%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0% 100%  
53 0.2% 99.9%  
54 0.5% 99.7%  
55 2% 99.2%  
56 3% 98%  
57 1.3% 94%  
58 2% 93%  
59 16% 90%  
60 9% 75%  
61 4% 65%  
62 16% 62% Median
63 43% 46%  
64 1.5% 3%  
65 1.0% 1.2%  
66 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.2% 100%  
54 0.3% 99.8%  
55 0.8% 99.5%  
56 5% 98.7%  
57 2% 94% Last Result
58 7% 92% Median
59 11% 85%  
60 50% 74%  
61 15% 24%  
62 2% 9%  
63 1.4% 7%  
64 6% 6%  
65 0.2% 0.2%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0% 100%  
51 0.4% 99.9%  
52 0.7% 99.5%  
53 8% 98.8%  
54 2% 90% Last Result
55 3% 89% Median
56 46% 85%  
57 16% 39%  
58 14% 24%  
59 1.2% 10%  
60 2% 8%  
61 5% 7%  
62 1.0% 1.1%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.3% 99.9%  
51 4% 99.5%  
52 3% 95%  
53 2% 92%  
54 5% 90%  
55 11% 85%  
56 6% 73% Median
57 41% 68%  
58 7% 27%  
59 17% 20%  
60 1.0% 3%  
61 0.4% 2% Last Result
62 0.2% 1.2%  
63 0.6% 1.0%  
64 0.4% 0.4%  
65 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0% 100%  
46 0.3% 99.9%  
47 1.2% 99.6%  
48 4% 98%  
49 5% 95%  
50 2% 89%  
51 42% 87% Median
52 10% 46%  
53 10% 35%  
54 6% 25%  
55 3% 18%  
56 14% 16%  
57 1.1% 2%  
58 0.6% 0.7%  
59 0% 0.1%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.2% 99.9%  
43 0.5% 99.7%  
44 0.9% 99.1%  
45 7% 98%  
46 7% 91%  
47 7% 85%  
48 6% 78% Median
49 44% 72%  
50 8% 27%  
51 13% 20%  
52 5% 7% Last Result
53 0.8% 2%  
54 0.7% 0.8%  
55 0% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 1.2% 99.8%  
35 2% 98.6%  
36 4% 96%  
37 8% 92%  
38 47% 84% Median
39 8% 37%  
40 7% 29%  
41 7% 22%  
42 14% 16% Last Result
43 0.3% 2%  
44 0.4% 2%  
45 0.2% 1.2%  
46 0.6% 1.0%  
47 0.4% 0.4%  
48 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0% 100%  
33 0.7% 99.9%  
34 3% 99.2%  
35 3% 96%  
36 6% 93%  
37 6% 88%  
38 11% 81%  
39 22% 70% Median
40 44% 48%  
41 2% 4%  
42 0.3% 2%  
43 1.1% 1.3%  
44 0.1% 0.2%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 4% 99.9%  
27 0.6% 96%  
28 3% 95%  
29 4% 92%  
30 9% 88%  
31 11% 79%  
32 21% 68% Median
33 43% 47% Last Result
34 2% 3%  
35 0.8% 2%  
36 0.9% 1.1%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.2% 99.9%  
26 1.1% 99.8%  
27 2% 98.7%  
28 6% 96%  
29 2% 90%  
30 10% 88%  
31 27% 78% Median
32 48% 51%  
33 2% 2%  
34 0.3% 0.8%  
35 0.3% 0.5%  
36 0.1% 0.2%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 4% 100%  
21 2% 96%  
22 3% 94%  
23 5% 90%  
24 4% 86%  
25 24% 81%  
26 11% 57% Median
27 44% 46%  
28 0.3% 1.5% Last Result
29 0.8% 1.1%  
30 0.2% 0.3%  
31 0% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations