Opinion Poll by Peil.nl, 3–9 September 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 18.0% 17.1–18.9% 16.9–19.2% 16.7–19.4% 16.2–19.9%
GroenLinks 9.1% 11.3% 10.6–12.1% 10.4–12.3% 10.2–12.5% 9.9–12.9%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 10.7% 10.0–11.4% 9.8–11.6% 9.6–11.8% 9.3–12.2%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 10.7% 10.0–11.4% 9.8–11.6% 9.6–11.8% 9.3–12.2%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 8.0% 7.4–8.7% 7.2–8.9% 7.1–9.0% 6.8–9.4%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 8.0% 7.4–8.7% 7.2–8.9% 7.1–9.0% 6.8–9.4%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 7.3% 6.8–8.0% 6.6–8.2% 6.4–8.3% 6.2–8.6%
Democraten 66 12.2% 7.3% 6.8–8.0% 6.6–8.2% 6.4–8.3% 6.2–8.6%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 5.3% 4.8–5.9% 4.7–6.1% 4.6–6.2% 4.4–6.5%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.0% 3.6–4.5% 3.4–4.6% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.0%
DENK 2.1% 4.0% 3.6–4.5% 3.4–4.6% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.0%
50Plus 3.1% 3.3% 2.9–3.8% 2.8–3.9% 2.7–4.0% 2.6–4.3%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 28 25–28 25–29 25–30 24–31
GroenLinks 14 16 16–19 15–19 15–19 15–19
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 16 15–17 15–18 14–18 14–18
Forum voor Democratie 2 15 15–18 15–19 15–19 14–19
Socialistische Partij 14 13 11–14 10–14 10–14 10–15
Partij van de Arbeid 9 12 12–13 11–13 11–13 10–14
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 11 10–13 9–13 9–13 9–13
Democraten 66 19 10 9–13 9–13 9–13 9–13
Partij voor de Dieren 5 9 7–9 7–9 7–9 7–9
ChristenUnie 5 6 5–7 5–7 4–7 4–7
DENK 3 6 5–6 5–7 4–7 4–8
50Plus 4 5 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–6
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 2 2–3 2–3 2–4 2–4

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.5% 100%  
25 14% 99.5%  
26 4% 86%  
27 19% 82%  
28 55% 62% Median
29 4% 8%  
30 2% 3%  
31 1.2% 1.3%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0% Last Result

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.2% 100% Last Result
15 6% 99.8%  
16 45% 94% Median
17 15% 49%  
18 18% 34%  
19 16% 16%  
20 0.4% 0.4%  
21 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 4% 100%  
15 27% 96%  
16 25% 69% Median
17 39% 44%  
18 5% 5%  
19 0.5% 0.5%  
20 0% 0% Last Result

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0.3% 100%  
14 2% 99.7%  
15 48% 98% Median
16 19% 49%  
17 16% 30%  
18 4% 14%  
19 10% 10%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 6% 100%  
11 20% 94%  
12 16% 75%  
13 48% 59% Median
14 10% 11% Last Result
15 1.5% 1.5%  
16 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 1.0% 100%  
11 9% 99.0%  
12 65% 90% Median
13 25% 25%  
14 0.5% 0.6%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 6% 100%  
10 19% 94%  
11 50% 75% Median
12 12% 25%  
13 13% 13%  
14 0.5% 0.5%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.4% 100%  
9 37% 99.6%  
10 20% 63% Median
11 20% 43%  
12 8% 22%  
13 15% 15%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0% 100% Last Result
6 0.5% 100%  
7 13% 99.5%  
8 34% 86%  
9 52% 52% Median
10 0.4% 0.5%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 3% 100%  
5 17% 97% Last Result
6 41% 80% Median
7 39% 39%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0% 100% Last Result
4 3% 100%  
5 23% 97%  
6 69% 75% Median
7 5% 6%  
8 1.0% 1.0%  
9 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100%  
4 28% 99.9% Last Result
5 71% 72% Median
6 1.1% 1.1%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 65% 100% Median
3 32% 35% Last Result
4 3% 3%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 73 5% 71–75 68–75 68–77 68–77
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 90 71 2% 69–75 69–75 69–75 69–76
GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – Socialistische Partij – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 80 68 0% 68–72 67–74 66–74 65–74
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 74 71 0% 67–72 66–73 66–73 66–75
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 85 67 0% 65–71 64–71 64–71 64–73
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 61 0% 59–65 57–65 57–65 57–67
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus 58 59 0% 56–62 55–62 55–62 55–64
GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 66 56 0% 55–60 55–60 54–60 52–60
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 57 0% 54–60 53–60 53–60 53–62
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 55 0% 53–58 51–58 51–58 51–60
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 54 54 0% 51–57 51–57 51–57 51–59
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 56 0% 50–56 50–56 50–57 50–58
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 61 49 0% 48–52 48–53 48–54 47–54
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 61 51 0% 48–53 47–54 47–54 47–55
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 48 0% 47–52 45–52 45–52 45–54
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 40 0% 38–41 37–42 37–42 37–43
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 39 0% 35–41 35–41 35–41 35–43
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 47 33 0% 32–36 32–37 32–37 31–37
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 33 30 0% 27–31 27–32 25–32 25–32
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 28 23 0% 22–25 21–26 21–26 20–26
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 21 0% 20–24 20–24 20–24 19–25

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 7% 100%  
69 0.1% 93%  
70 3% 93%  
71 3% 90%  
72 9% 87% Median
73 50% 78%  
74 3% 28%  
75 20% 25%  
76 2% 5% Majority
77 3% 3% Last Result
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.2% 100%  
67 0% 99.8%  
68 0.1% 99.7%  
69 12% 99.6%  
70 1.4% 87%  
71 41% 86% Median
72 5% 45%  
73 11% 40%  
74 17% 29%  
75 10% 12%  
76 2% 2% Majority
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result

GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – Socialistische Partij – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 2% 100%  
66 2% 98%  
67 2% 97%  
68 48% 95% Median
69 18% 47%  
70 6% 29%  
71 11% 23%  
72 4% 12%  
73 0.8% 8%  
74 7% 7%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Majority
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 7% 100%  
67 3% 93%  
68 1.5% 90%  
69 9% 88%  
70 4% 79% Median
71 51% 76%  
72 17% 25%  
73 7% 8%  
74 0.3% 1.5% Last Result
75 1.2% 1.2%  
76 0% 0% Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.2% 100%  
63 0.2% 99.8%  
64 10% 99.6%  
65 5% 90%  
66 11% 85%  
67 43% 73% Median
68 12% 30%  
69 6% 19%  
70 0.8% 12%  
71 11% 11%  
72 0.1% 0.6%  
73 0.5% 0.5%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Majority
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.2% 100%  
57 7% 99.8%  
58 0.3% 93%  
59 4% 93%  
60 0.9% 89%  
61 44% 88% Last Result, Median
62 19% 44%  
63 10% 25%  
64 4% 15%  
65 8% 10%  
66 1.2% 2%  
67 1.3% 1.3%  
68 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.2% 100%  
54 0% 99.8%  
55 7% 99.7%  
56 4% 93%  
57 1.1% 89%  
58 3% 88% Last Result
59 51% 85% Median
60 15% 34%  
61 7% 19%  
62 9% 11%  
63 2% 2%  
64 0.8% 0.8%  
65 0% 0%  

GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 1.1% 100%  
53 0.5% 98.9%  
54 3% 98%  
55 40% 96% Median
56 9% 56%  
57 11% 46%  
58 7% 35%  
59 12% 28%  
60 15% 16%  
61 0.2% 0.3%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.2% 100%  
53 7% 99.7%  
54 3% 93%  
55 1.1% 89%  
56 37% 88% Median
57 23% 51% Last Result
58 4% 28%  
59 11% 23%  
60 10% 12%  
61 1.0% 2%  
62 1.3% 1.3%  
63 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.2% 100%  
50 0% 99.8%  
51 6% 99.8%  
52 3% 93%  
53 5% 90%  
54 11% 86%  
55 44% 74% Median
56 13% 30%  
57 3% 17%  
58 11% 13%  
59 2% 2%  
60 0.5% 0.5%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.2% 100%  
50 0.3% 99.8%  
51 10% 99.5%  
52 1.1% 90%  
53 2% 88%  
54 48% 87% Last Result, Median
55 13% 39%  
56 9% 26%  
57 14% 16%  
58 1.3% 2%  
59 0.9% 0.9%  
60 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 13% 99.9%  
51 0.6% 87%  
52 3% 87%  
53 9% 83%  
54 9% 74%  
55 4% 65% Median
56 56% 61%  
57 4% 4%  
58 0.4% 0.5%  
59 0% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.8% 99.9%  
48 9% 99.1%  
49 42% 90%  
50 13% 48% Median
51 17% 35%  
52 13% 18%  
53 1.5% 5%  
54 4% 4%  
55 0.1% 0.2%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.4% 100%  
47 8% 99.6%  
48 9% 92%  
49 12% 82%  
50 7% 71%  
51 38% 64% Median
52 8% 26%  
53 8% 18%  
54 9% 10%  
55 1.4% 1.4%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.2% 100%  
44 0% 99.8%  
45 6% 99.8%  
46 0.5% 94%  
47 4% 93%  
48 49% 89%  
49 4% 40% Median
50 14% 36%  
51 8% 22%  
52 12% 13%  
53 0.7% 2%  
54 1.3% 1.3%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0% 99.9%  
37 9% 99.9%  
38 15% 91%  
39 13% 76%  
40 41% 62% Median
41 16% 21%  
42 4% 5% Last Result
43 2% 2%  
44 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.2% 100%  
34 0.1% 99.8%  
35 13% 99.6%  
36 3% 86%  
37 8% 83%  
38 11% 75%  
39 40% 64% Median
40 13% 25%  
41 10% 12%  
42 0.2% 1.4%  
43 1.2% 1.2%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 2% 100%  
32 37% 98%  
33 17% 61% Median
34 6% 44%  
35 24% 38%  
36 3% 13%  
37 10% 10%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 4% 100%  
26 1.2% 96%  
27 7% 95%  
28 17% 89%  
29 13% 72% Median
30 43% 59%  
31 7% 17%  
32 10% 10%  
33 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
34 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.9% 100%  
21 5% 99.1%  
22 20% 94%  
23 49% 74% Median
24 4% 25%  
25 13% 21%  
26 8% 8%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 2% 100%  
20 43% 98%  
21 11% 55% Median
22 11% 44%  
23 16% 33%  
24 16% 17%  
25 1.4% 1.4%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations