Opinion Poll by I&O Research, 7–11 September 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 17.1% 16.0–18.2% 15.7–18.5% 15.5–18.8% 15.0–19.3%
GroenLinks 9.1% 12.7% 11.8–13.7% 11.5–14.0% 11.3–14.2% 10.9–14.7%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 9.7% 8.9–10.6% 8.6–10.8% 8.4–11.1% 8.1–11.5%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 9.6% 8.7–10.5% 8.5–10.7% 8.3–10.9% 8.0–11.4%
Democraten 66 12.2% 8.9% 8.1–9.7% 7.9–10.0% 7.7–10.2% 7.3–10.6%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 8.9% 8.1–9.7% 7.9–10.0% 7.7–10.2% 7.3–10.6%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 8.0% 7.3–8.8% 7.1–9.1% 6.9–9.3% 6.5–9.7%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 7.4% 6.7–8.2% 6.5–8.4% 6.3–8.6% 6.0–9.0%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.9% 4.3–5.6% 4.1–5.8% 4.0–5.9% 3.7–6.3%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 4.4% 3.8–5.0% 3.7–5.2% 3.6–5.4% 3.3–5.7%
50Plus 3.1% 3.4% 2.9–4.0% 2.8–4.1% 2.7–4.3% 2.5–4.6%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.7% 2.3–3.2% 2.2–3.4% 2.1–3.5% 1.9–3.8%
DENK 2.1% 2.2% 1.8–2.7% 1.7–2.9% 1.6–3.0% 1.5–3.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 26 25–28 24–28 24–28 23–30
GroenLinks 14 19 17–20 17–22 17–22 16–24
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 14 13–16 13–16 12–16 12–18
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 15 13–16 12–16 12–17 12–17
Democraten 66 19 13 12–15 12–15 11–15 11–16
Socialistische Partij 14 13 12–15 12–15 12–15 11–16
Forum voor Democratie 2 12 11–14 9–14 9–15 9–15
Partij van de Arbeid 9 11 10–13 10–13 10–13 8–14
ChristenUnie 5 8 6–8 6–9 6–9 5–10
Partij voor de Dieren 5 7 5–8 5–8 5–8 5–8
50Plus 4 5 4–6 4–6 4–6 3–6
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 4 3–5 3–5 3–5 2–6
DENK 3 3 2–4 2–4 2–4 2–4

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.2% 100%  
23 0.7% 99.8%  
24 5% 99.0%  
25 7% 94%  
26 40% 87% Median
27 13% 47%  
28 32% 34%  
29 1.2% 2%  
30 0.6% 0.8%  
31 0.1% 0.2%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0% Last Result

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0% 100% Last Result
15 0% 100%  
16 2% 100%  
17 16% 98%  
18 19% 81%  
19 36% 63% Median
20 17% 27%  
21 4% 10%  
22 4% 5%  
23 0.6% 1.3%  
24 0.7% 0.7%  
25 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 4% 99.9%  
13 32% 96%  
14 46% 64% Median
15 6% 18%  
16 10% 12%  
17 1.4% 2%  
18 1.0% 1.0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 6% 100%  
13 13% 94%  
14 20% 82%  
15 44% 62% Median
16 15% 18%  
17 3% 3%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 2% 99.9%  
12 24% 97%  
13 35% 74% Median
14 13% 39%  
15 25% 26%  
16 0.4% 0.5%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 1.3% 99.9%  
12 31% 98.6%  
13 26% 67% Median
14 15% 42% Last Result
15 24% 26%  
16 2% 2%  
17 0.1% 0.3%  
18 0.2% 0.2%  
19 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 5% 100%  
10 2% 95%  
11 28% 93%  
12 42% 65% Median
13 5% 23%  
14 14% 18%  
15 3% 3%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.8% 100%  
9 2% 99.2% Last Result
10 16% 98%  
11 41% 82% Median
12 22% 41%  
13 17% 18%  
14 1.3% 1.3%  
15 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 1.2% 100% Last Result
6 24% 98.8%  
7 23% 74%  
8 44% 51% Median
9 6% 7%  
10 1.2% 1.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 17% 100% Last Result
6 25% 83%  
7 39% 58% Median
8 19% 19%  
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.9% 100%  
4 22% 99.1% Last Result
5 43% 77% Median
6 33% 34%  
7 0.5% 0.5%  
8 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 1.3% 100%  
3 28% 98.7% Last Result
4 59% 70% Median
5 11% 11%  
6 0.8% 0.8%  
7 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 20% 100%  
3 63% 80% Last Result, Median
4 17% 18%  
5 0.5% 0.5%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 90 81 99.9% 78–83 77–84 77–86 76–86
GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 80 79 98.8% 77–81 76–81 76–82 75–83
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 85 74 18% 70–76 69–76 68–76 67–77
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 71 0.3% 68–73 68–73 68–74 67–75
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 74 67 0% 65–69 65–70 65–70 63–72
GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 66 66 0% 63–68 62–68 62–68 60–70
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 62 0% 59–64 59–64 58–66 56–67
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 61 0% 60–65 59–65 58–65 57–66
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 58 0% 56–61 56–61 55–61 54–62
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 57 0% 55–60 54–60 54–60 52–61
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 55 0% 53–57 52–57 51–59 49–59
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 54 0% 53–57 53–58 52–58 51–60
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 53 0% 51–55 51–56 50–56 48–57
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 53 0% 50–55 49–55 48–55 47–56
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 61 52 0% 49–53 48–54 47–54 46–55
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 41 0% 39–44 38–44 38–44 37–45
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 47 40 0% 38–40 37–41 36–42 35–44
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 38 0% 36–40 35–40 34–40 34–42
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 33 0% 31–36 29–36 29–36 29–37
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 28 0% 27–29 26–30 26–31 25–32
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 26 0% 24–28 23–28 23–28 23–29

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.1% 100%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0.6% 99.9% Majority
77 4% 99.3%  
78 13% 95%  
79 6% 81%  
80 17% 75%  
81 29% 59% Median
82 7% 29%  
83 13% 22%  
84 5% 9%  
85 0.5% 4%  
86 3% 4%  
87 0.4% 0.5%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result

GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.3% 100%  
74 0.1% 99.7%  
75 0.8% 99.6%  
76 6% 98.8% Majority
77 17% 92%  
78 21% 76%  
79 11% 55% Median
80 25% 44% Last Result
81 14% 19%  
82 4% 5%  
83 0.7% 1.0%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0.1% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.4% 100%  
67 1.0% 99.5%  
68 1.2% 98.5%  
69 3% 97%  
70 9% 95%  
71 8% 86%  
72 7% 78%  
73 5% 71% Median
74 44% 66%  
75 3% 22%  
76 17% 18% Majority
77 0.8% 0.9%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0% 99.9%  
66 0.3% 99.9%  
67 0.7% 99.6%  
68 15% 98.9%  
69 8% 84%  
70 23% 76%  
71 11% 53% Median
72 7% 42%  
73 30% 35%  
74 3% 5%  
75 1.2% 2%  
76 0.2% 0.3% Majority
77 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
78 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.3% 99.9%  
63 0.9% 99.6%  
64 1.1% 98.7%  
65 16% 98%  
66 25% 81%  
67 14% 57% Median
68 13% 42%  
69 23% 29%  
70 5% 6%  
71 0.9% 2%  
72 0.5% 0.6%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0% Last Result

GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.6% 100%  
61 0.2% 99.3%  
62 6% 99.1%  
63 9% 93%  
64 8% 84%  
65 20% 76%  
66 27% 57% Last Result, Median
67 18% 29%  
68 9% 11%  
69 1.5% 2%  
70 0.8% 0.9%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.8% 100%  
57 0.9% 99.2%  
58 2% 98%  
59 10% 97%  
60 12% 86%  
61 19% 75%  
62 8% 56% Median
63 25% 48%  
64 19% 23%  
65 0.8% 5%  
66 3% 4%  
67 0.1% 0.6%  
68 0.4% 0.4%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.9% 99.8%  
58 2% 98.9%  
59 4% 97%  
60 21% 94%  
61 24% 73% Last Result
62 11% 49% Median
63 4% 38%  
64 8% 34%  
65 26% 26%  
66 0.6% 0.9%  
67 0.2% 0.3%  
68 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.2% 99.9%  
54 2% 99.7%  
55 2% 98%  
56 22% 96%  
57 5% 73%  
58 29% 68% Last Result, Median
59 3% 39%  
60 16% 36%  
61 19% 20%  
62 0.4% 0.7%  
63 0.3% 0.3%  
64 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100%  
52 1.4% 99.9%  
53 0.6% 98.5%  
54 4% 98%  
55 23% 94%  
56 21% 72%  
57 12% 51% Last Result, Median
58 2% 39%  
59 24% 36%  
60 11% 12%  
61 0.8% 1.0%  
62 0.2% 0.2%  
63 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.8% 99.9%  
50 0.7% 99.2%  
51 2% 98%  
52 5% 96%  
53 25% 91%  
54 10% 67% Median
55 25% 56%  
56 18% 31%  
57 9% 13%  
58 1.0% 5%  
59 3% 3%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.2% 100%  
51 0.6% 99.7%  
52 3% 99.2%  
53 7% 96%  
54 40% 89%  
55 10% 50% Median
56 8% 39%  
57 23% 31%  
58 6% 8%  
59 2% 2%  
60 0.3% 0.7%  
61 0.1% 0.4%  
62 0.3% 0.3%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.7% 99.9%  
49 1.2% 99.2%  
50 2% 98%  
51 9% 96%  
52 33% 87%  
53 14% 55% Median
54 5% 41% Last Result
55 30% 36%  
56 5% 6%  
57 0.7% 0.9%  
58 0.2% 0.2%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.5% 99.9%  
48 4% 99.4%  
49 2% 96%  
50 7% 93%  
51 16% 86%  
52 18% 70% Median
53 10% 52%  
54 20% 42%  
55 22% 23%  
56 0.5% 0.9%  
57 0.4% 0.4%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.4% 100%  
46 0.8% 99.5%  
47 2% 98.7%  
48 5% 97%  
49 9% 92%  
50 9% 83% Median
51 18% 74%  
52 25% 56%  
53 22% 31%  
54 7% 9%  
55 1.0% 1.1%  
56 0% 0.1%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.2% 99.9%  
37 1.1% 99.7%  
38 4% 98.6%  
39 8% 94%  
40 19% 86%  
41 32% 67% Median
42 7% 35%  
43 14% 28%  
44 13% 14%  
45 0.5% 0.8%  
46 0.3% 0.3%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 1.4% 99.9%  
36 1.3% 98.6%  
37 3% 97%  
38 22% 94%  
39 14% 72% Median
40 50% 58%  
41 4% 8%  
42 3% 4%  
43 0.1% 0.9%  
44 0.6% 0.8%  
45 0.2% 0.2%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.2% 100%  
34 4% 99.7%  
35 3% 96%  
36 4% 93%  
37 31% 89% Median
38 10% 57%  
39 28% 48%  
40 18% 19%  
41 1.1% 2%  
42 0.5% 0.6% Last Result
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 6% 100%  
30 3% 94%  
31 9% 91%  
32 12% 82%  
33 26% 70% Last Result
34 12% 44% Median
35 15% 32%  
36 16% 17%  
37 0.8% 1.1%  
38 0.2% 0.3%  
39 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.2% 100%  
25 1.5% 99.8%  
26 4% 98%  
27 34% 94%  
28 30% 60% Median
29 21% 30%  
30 4% 8%  
31 4% 4%  
32 0.6% 0.7%  
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.3% 99.9%  
23 8% 99.6%  
24 9% 92%  
25 23% 83%  
26 15% 60% Median
27 28% 46%  
28 16% 17% Last Result
29 0.7% 1.0%  
30 0.1% 0.3%  
31 0.2% 0.2%  
32 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations