Opinion Poll by Kantar Public, 13–16 September 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 18.0% 16.5–19.6% 16.1–20.0% 15.8–20.4% 15.1–21.2%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 13.4% 12.1–14.8% 11.7–15.2% 11.4–15.6% 10.8–16.3%
GroenLinks 9.1% 12.7% 11.4–14.1% 11.1–14.5% 10.8–14.9% 10.2–15.6%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 9.3% 8.3–10.6% 8.0–10.9% 7.7–11.3% 7.2–11.9%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 9.3% 8.3–10.6% 8.0–10.9% 7.7–11.3% 7.2–11.9%
Democraten 66 12.2% 8.0% 7.0–9.2% 6.7–9.5% 6.5–9.8% 6.0–10.4%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 6.6% 5.7–7.7% 5.5–8.0% 5.3–8.3% 4.9–8.9%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 6.0% 5.1–7.0% 4.9–7.3% 4.7–7.6% 4.3–8.1%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 6.0% 5.1–7.0% 4.9–7.3% 4.7–7.6% 4.3–8.1%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 4.0% 3.4–4.9% 3.2–5.2% 3.0–5.4% 2.7–5.9%
50Plus 3.1% 3.4% 2.7–4.2% 2.6–4.4% 2.4–4.6% 2.2–5.1%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.0% 1.6–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.4%
DENK 2.1% 1.3% 1.0–1.9% 0.9–2.1% 0.8–2.3% 0.7–2.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 28 28 28–29 25–29 23–30
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 22 21–22 21–22 21–22 19–23
GroenLinks 14 17 17 17–21 17–21 17–22
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 14 14 13–15 13–15 12–15
Socialistische Partij 14 13 13 13 13–14 12–15
Democraten 66 19 11 11–12 11–12 11–12 11–12
Partij van de Arbeid 9 11 10–11 9–11 9–11 8–12
ChristenUnie 5 10 10 9–10 8–10 7–10
Forum voor Democratie 2 8 8–10 8–10 8–10 7–10
Partij voor de Dieren 5 7 7 4–7 4–7 4–8
50Plus 4 5 5 5 5–6 4–6
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 2 2 2–4 2–4 2–4
DENK 3 2 2 2 2 1–2

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 2% 100%  
24 0% 98%  
25 0.6% 98%  
26 0.8% 97%  
27 0.1% 96%  
28 88% 96% Median
29 8% 8%  
30 0.1% 0.5%  
31 0.4% 0.5%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0% Last Result

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.4% 100%  
18 0% 99.6%  
19 0.6% 99.5%  
20 0.5% 98.9% Last Result
21 9% 98%  
22 88% 89% Median
23 0.1% 0.6%  
24 0.1% 0.5%  
25 0% 0.4%  
26 0.4% 0.4%  
27 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0% 100% Last Result
15 0% 100%  
16 0.1% 100%  
17 93% 99.9% Median
18 0.6% 7%  
19 0.8% 6%  
20 0.2% 6%  
21 4% 6%  
22 0.8% 1.2%  
23 0.3% 0.4%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.4% 100%  
12 2% 99.6%  
13 4% 98%  
14 88% 94% Median
15 6% 6%  
16 0.2% 0.2%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 0.6% 99.9%  
13 96% 99.3% Median
14 2% 4% Last Result
15 0.8% 1.1%  
16 0.2% 0.3%  
17 0% 0.1%  
18 0% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 0.4% 99.9%  
11 88% 99.5% Median
12 11% 12%  
13 0.2% 0.4%  
14 0.1% 0.2%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.1% 100%  
8 2% 99.9%  
9 6% 98% Last Result
10 3% 92%  
11 88% 89% Median
12 0.7% 0.8%  
13 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0% 100% Last Result
6 0.1% 100%  
7 1.2% 99.9%  
8 2% 98.7%  
9 6% 97%  
10 90% 91% Median
11 0.4% 0.4%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0.1% 100%  
7 0.5% 99.9%  
8 88% 99.4% Median
9 2% 12%  
10 10% 10%  
11 0.3% 0.3%  
12 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 5% 100%  
5 0.6% 95% Last Result
6 3% 94%  
7 91% 91% Median
8 0.7% 0.7%  
9 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.2% 100%  
4 1.2% 99.8% Last Result
5 96% 98.6% Median
6 3% 3%  
7 0.2% 0.2%  
8 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 94% 100% Median
3 0.7% 6% Last Result
4 5% 5%  
5 0% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 1.4% 99.9%  
2 98% 98% Median
3 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
4 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 90 80 100% 80 80–82 79–82 78–83
GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Socialistische Partij – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 80 76 93% 76 75–76 75–80 74–80
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 74 6% 74 74–79 69–79 69–79
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 74 72 0.1% 72 72–75 67–75 67–75
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 85 74 0.6% 74 70–74 68–74 68–76
GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 66 63 0% 63 62–63 62–66 61–66
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 63 0% 63 61–65 58–65 58–65
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 64 0% 64 62–65 57–65 57–66
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 57 0% 57 57–63 54–63 54–63
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 55 0% 55 55–59 52–59 52–59
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 52 0% 52 52–58 48–58 48–58
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 53 0% 53 53–56 49–56 48–56
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 50 0% 50 50–54 46–54 46–55
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 53 0% 53 49–53 47–53 46–56
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 61 50 0% 50 49–50 46–50 45–52
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 42 0% 42 41–44 37–44 36–44
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 39 0% 38–39 37–39 35–39 33–41
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 47 36 0% 36 35–36 34–36 32–39
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 35 0% 33–35 33–35 29–35 28–35
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 25 0% 25 25–27 24–27 24–27
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 25 0% 24–25 23–25 22–25 20–27

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.1% 100%  
78 0.6% 99.9%  
79 2% 99.3%  
80 88% 97% Median
81 0.5% 9%  
82 7% 8%  
83 1.0% 1.4%  
84 0.1% 0.3%  
85 0.1% 0.2%  
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 99.9%  
73 0% 99.9%  
74 2% 99.9%  
75 5% 98%  
76 89% 93% Median, Majority
77 0.6% 4%  
78 0.2% 4%  
79 0.4% 3%  
80 3% 3% Last Result
81 0.1% 0.2%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.3% 100%  
67 0% 99.7%  
68 0% 99.6%  
69 3% 99.6%  
70 0% 97%  
71 0.2% 97%  
72 0.1% 97%  
73 0.1% 97%  
74 90% 97% Median
75 1.1% 7%  
76 0.2% 6% Majority
77 0.5% 6% Last Result
78 0% 5%  
79 5% 5%  
80 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.3% 100%  
64 0% 99.7%  
65 0% 99.6%  
66 0% 99.6%  
67 3% 99.6%  
68 0.1% 97%  
69 0.2% 97%  
70 0.2% 97%  
71 0.1% 96%  
72 90% 96% Median
73 1.1% 7%  
74 0.2% 6% Last Result
75 5% 5%  
76 0.1% 0.1% Majority
77 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100%  
68 3% 99.9%  
69 2% 97%  
70 1.2% 95%  
71 0.4% 94%  
72 0.2% 94%  
73 0.1% 93%  
74 93% 93% Median
75 0.1% 0.6%  
76 0.1% 0.6% Majority
77 0.4% 0.5%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Last Result

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.1% 99.8%  
61 2% 99.7%  
62 5% 98%  
63 88% 93% Median
64 1.2% 4%  
65 0.6% 3%  
66 2% 3% Last Result
67 0.1% 0.2%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100%  
58 3% 99.9%  
59 0.4% 97%  
60 0.3% 97%  
61 3% 97%  
62 0.1% 94%  
63 88% 93% Median
64 0.2% 6%  
65 5% 6%  
66 0.1% 0.2%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.4% 100%  
57 3% 99.6%  
58 0.2% 97%  
59 0.2% 97%  
60 0.1% 97%  
61 0.1% 97%  
62 2% 96%  
63 0.1% 94%  
64 89% 94% Median
65 5% 6%  
66 0.5% 0.6%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.4% 100%  
53 0% 99.6%  
54 3% 99.6%  
55 0% 97%  
56 0.1% 97%  
57 88% 97% Median
58 2% 8%  
59 0.2% 6%  
60 0.1% 6%  
61 0.4% 6% Last Result
62 0.1% 5%  
63 5% 5%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.3% 100%  
50 0% 99.6%  
51 0% 99.6%  
52 3% 99.6%  
53 0.1% 97%  
54 0.1% 97%  
55 88% 97% Median
56 2% 8%  
57 0.2% 6%  
58 0.1% 6% Last Result
59 5% 5%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.3% 100%  
48 2% 99.6%  
49 0.4% 97%  
50 0% 97%  
51 0% 97%  
52 88% 97% Median
53 3% 9%  
54 0.1% 6%  
55 0.2% 6%  
56 0% 6%  
57 0.4% 6% Last Result
58 5% 5%  
59 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 2% 100%  
49 0.4% 98%  
50 0.9% 97%  
51 0.1% 96%  
52 0% 96%  
53 90% 96% Median
54 0.7% 7%  
55 0.3% 6%  
56 5% 6%  
57 0% 0.5%  
58 0.4% 0.4%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.4% 100%  
45 0% 99.6%  
46 2% 99.6%  
47 0.4% 97%  
48 0% 97%  
49 0.1% 97%  
50 88% 97% Median
51 3% 8%  
52 0.1% 6%  
53 0% 6%  
54 5% 6% Last Result
55 0.5% 0.5%  
56 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 2% 100%  
47 0.4% 98%  
48 0% 97%  
49 2% 97%  
50 0.5% 95%  
51 0.8% 94%  
52 0.2% 93%  
53 93% 93% Median
54 0.1% 0.6%  
55 0% 0.6%  
56 0.1% 0.5%  
57 0% 0.4%  
58 0.4% 0.4%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100%  
45 2% 99.9%  
46 0.4% 98%  
47 0.1% 97%  
48 0.9% 97%  
49 2% 96%  
50 93% 94% Median
51 0.3% 0.8%  
52 0.1% 0.6%  
53 0% 0.5%  
54 0% 0.4%  
55 0.4% 0.4%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 2% 100%  
37 0.3% 98%  
38 0.4% 97%  
39 0.2% 97%  
40 0.5% 97%  
41 2% 96%  
42 88% 94% Median
43 0% 6%  
44 5% 6%  
45 0.1% 0.5%  
46 0.4% 0.4%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 2% 100%  
34 0.1% 98%  
35 0.1% 98%  
36 1.1% 97%  
37 2% 96%  
38 6% 94%  
39 88% 88% Median
40 0.1% 0.7%  
41 0.1% 0.5%  
42 0% 0.4% Last Result
43 0.4% 0.4%  
44 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0% 100%  
32 2% 99.9%  
33 0.4% 98%  
34 1.1% 98%  
35 2% 96%  
36 93% 94% Median
37 0.3% 1.0%  
38 0.1% 0.7%  
39 0.6% 0.6%  
40 0% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 2% 100%  
29 0.8% 98%  
30 0.4% 97%  
31 0.2% 97%  
32 0.1% 97%  
33 8% 97% Last Result
34 0.5% 89%  
35 88% 88% Median
36 0.2% 0.3%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.4% 99.9%  
24 2% 99.5%  
25 91% 97% Median
26 0.1% 6%  
27 6% 6%  
28 0.1% 0.3%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 2% 100%  
21 0.5% 98%  
22 0.8% 98%  
23 2% 97%  
24 6% 94%  
25 88% 89% Median
26 0.3% 0.8%  
27 0.4% 0.5%  
28 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
29 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations