Opinion Poll by Peil.nl, 10–16 September 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 17.3% 16.5–18.3% 16.2–18.5% 16.0–18.7% 15.6–19.2%
GroenLinks 9.1% 12.0% 11.3–12.8% 11.1–13.0% 10.9–13.2% 10.5–13.6%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 10.7% 10.0–11.4% 9.8–11.6% 9.6–11.8% 9.3–12.2%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 10.0% 9.3–10.7% 9.1–10.9% 9.0–11.1% 8.7–11.5%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 8.7% 8.0–9.4% 7.8–9.6% 7.7–9.7% 7.4–10.1%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 8.0% 7.4–8.7% 7.2–8.9% 7.1–9.0% 6.8–9.4%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 7.3% 6.8–8.0% 6.6–8.2% 6.4–8.3% 6.2–8.6%
Democraten 66 12.2% 6.7% 6.1–7.3% 6.0–7.5% 5.8–7.6% 5.6–7.9%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 5.3% 4.8–5.9% 4.7–6.1% 4.6–6.2% 4.4–6.5%
DENK 2.1% 4.7% 4.2–5.2% 4.1–5.3% 4.0–5.5% 3.7–5.8%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.0% 3.6–4.5% 3.4–4.6% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.0%
50Plus 3.1% 3.3% 2.9–3.8% 2.8–3.9% 2.7–4.0% 2.6–4.3%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 27 26–27 26–27 25–27 25–29
GroenLinks 14 19 18–19 17–19 17–19 17–20
Forum voor Democratie 2 15 15–16 15–17 15–17 15–17
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 17 16–17 15–17 15–17 13–17
Socialistische Partij 14 13 13–14 12–14 12–14 12–14
Partij van de Arbeid 9 12 11–12 11–14 11–14 10–14
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 10 10–12 10–12 10–12 10–12
Democraten 66 19 10 10 9–10 9–11 9–12
Partij voor de Dieren 5 8 7–8 7–8 7–8 7–10
DENK 3 6 6–7 6–7 6–9 6–9
ChristenUnie 5 6 5–6 5–6 5–6 5–7
50Plus 4 5 4–5 4–5 4–6 4–6
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 2 2 2–3 2–3 2–4

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.5% 100%  
25 4% 99.5%  
26 19% 96%  
27 76% 77% Median
28 0.8% 1.4%  
29 0.6% 0.7%  
30 0% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0% Last Result

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0% 100% Last Result
15 0% 100%  
16 0.2% 100%  
17 9% 99.8%  
18 5% 91%  
19 85% 86% Median
20 1.1% 1.2%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0.2% 100%  
15 84% 99.7% Median
16 10% 16%  
17 5% 6%  
18 0.1% 0.3%  
19 0.2% 0.2%  
20 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 1.0% 100%  
14 1.1% 99.0%  
15 5% 98%  
16 9% 93%  
17 84% 84% Median
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0% Last Result

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.3% 100%  
12 5% 99.7%  
13 77% 95% Median
14 17% 18% Last Result
15 0.3% 0.3%  
16 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 0.6% 100%  
11 12% 99.4%  
12 79% 87% Median
13 1.3% 8%  
14 7% 7%  
15 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.2% 100%  
10 77% 99.8% Median
11 5% 23%  
12 18% 18%  
13 0.2% 0.2%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 8% 99.9%  
10 87% 92% Median
11 4% 4%  
12 0.7% 0.7%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0% 100% Last Result
6 0.3% 100%  
7 20% 99.7%  
8 77% 79% Median
9 1.2% 2%  
10 0.1% 0.5%  
11 0.4% 0.4%  
12 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0% 100% Last Result
4 0% 100%  
5 0.2% 100%  
6 76% 99.8% Median
7 19% 24%  
8 1.3% 5%  
9 3% 3%  
10 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 18% 100% Last Result
6 81% 82% Median
7 0.9% 1.1%  
8 0.2% 0.2%  
9 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.3% 100%  
4 11% 99.7% Last Result
5 85% 89% Median
6 4% 4%  
7 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 90% 99.9% Median
3 9% 9% Last Result
4 0.5% 0.5%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 71 0% 71–73 70–73 70–73 68–74
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 90 72 0% 71–72 69–72 69–72 69–74
GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 80 70 0% 70–71 69–71 69–71 68–73
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 74 69 0% 69–71 68–71 68–71 65–71
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 85 65 0% 64–66 64–66 64–66 63–67
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 59 0% 59–61 59–61 59–61 58–63
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus 58 57 0% 57–58 57–59 57–59 56–61
GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 66 57 0% 57 57 57–58 55–59
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 54 0% 54–56 54–56 54–57 54–58
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 54 0% 54 52–55 51–55 49–55
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 53 0% 53 52–53 52–54 51–55
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 54 52 0% 52–54 52–54 52–54 51–56
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 61 49 0% 49–50 49–52 47–52 47–52
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 61 49 0% 47–49 47–49 47–49 45–50
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 47 0% 47–48 47–48 47–48 46–49
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 39 0% 37–39 37–40 36–40 35–41
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 37 0% 37–38 37–38 36–38 36–39
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 47 32 0% 32–33 32–35 32–35 31–35
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 33 28 0% 28–29 28–31 28–31 27–31
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 28 22 0% 22–23 22–26 22–26 22–26
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 20 0% 20–22 20–22 20–22 19–23

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 99.9%  
68 0.5% 99.9%  
69 1.4% 99.4%  
70 4% 98%  
71 75% 94% Median
72 7% 18%  
73 10% 11%  
74 0.5% 0.7%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0% Majority
77 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.2% 100%  
69 7% 99.8%  
70 1.2% 93%  
71 5% 92%  
72 85% 87% Median
73 1.4% 2%  
74 0.8% 0.9%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0% Majority
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result

GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.2% 99.9%  
67 0% 99.7%  
68 0.6% 99.7%  
69 5% 99.1%  
70 76% 94% Median
71 17% 18%  
72 0.7% 1.4%  
73 0.6% 0.7%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Majority
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0.6% 99.9%  
66 0.3% 99.4%  
67 2% 99.1%  
68 4% 98%  
69 82% 93% Median
70 0.7% 11%  
71 10% 10%  
72 0.4% 0.4%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0% 99.9%  
63 0.5% 99.8%  
64 12% 99.3%  
65 76% 87% Median
66 10% 11%  
67 0.7% 0.9%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Majority
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100%  
58 1.0% 99.9%  
59 75% 98.9% Median
60 10% 24%  
61 12% 14% Last Result
62 0.9% 2%  
63 0.9% 1.1%  
64 0.1% 0.2%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 99.9%  
56 1.4% 99.9%  
57 75% 98.5% Median
58 17% 23% Last Result
59 6% 7%  
60 0.4% 1.0%  
61 0.4% 0.6%  
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.4% 99.9%  
55 0.4% 99.5%  
56 0.6% 99.2%  
57 96% 98.6% Median
58 1.2% 3%  
59 1.3% 1.5%  
60 0.2% 0.2%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0% 100%  
53 0.4% 99.9%  
54 76% 99.5% Median
55 5% 24%  
56 17% 19%  
57 2% 3% Last Result
58 0.7% 1.0%  
59 0.3% 0.4%  
60 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.7% 99.9%  
50 0.4% 99.3%  
51 4% 98.9%  
52 2% 95%  
53 0.9% 93%  
54 83% 93% Median
55 10% 10%  
56 0.1% 0.2%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100%  
50 0.1% 99.9%  
51 0.4% 99.8%  
52 8% 99.5%  
53 88% 92% Median
54 3% 4%  
55 0.6% 0.9%  
56 0.2% 0.3%  
57 0% 0.1%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0% 100%  
51 0.6% 99.9%  
52 76% 99.4% Median
53 11% 23%  
54 11% 12% Last Result
55 1.0% 2%  
56 0.3% 0.6%  
57 0.3% 0.3%  
58 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.5% 100%  
47 4% 99.5%  
48 0.5% 96%  
49 85% 95% Median
50 2% 10%  
51 2% 9%  
52 7% 7%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.5% 100%  
46 0.2% 99.5%  
47 12% 99.3%  
48 2% 87%  
49 83% 85% Median
50 2% 2%  
51 0.2% 0.3%  
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100%  
45 0.3% 99.9%  
46 1.2% 99.6%  
47 86% 98% Median
48 11% 12%  
49 1.3% 2%  
50 0.1% 0.2%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.3% 100%  
35 0.2% 99.7%  
36 3% 99.5%  
37 9% 96%  
38 2% 87%  
39 76% 85% Median
40 8% 9%  
41 0.8% 0.9%  
42 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
43 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100%  
35 0.3% 99.9%  
36 5% 99.7%  
37 76% 95% Median
38 17% 19%  
39 1.3% 1.5%  
40 0.1% 0.2%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.8% 100%  
32 76% 99.1% Median
33 14% 23%  
34 2% 9%  
35 8% 8%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.6% 99.9%  
28 89% 99.3% Median
29 1.5% 11%  
30 2% 9%  
31 7% 7%  
32 0.1% 0.2%  
33 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
34 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.4% 100%  
22 80% 99.6% Median
23 10% 20%  
24 2% 9%  
25 0.2% 7%  
26 7% 7%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.8% 100%  
20 77% 99.2% Median
21 8% 22%  
22 14% 15%  
23 1.1% 1.1%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations