Opinion Poll by Ipsos for EenVandaag, 21–23 September 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 20.1% 18.6–21.8% 18.2–22.3% 17.8–22.6% 17.1–23.5%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 13.1% 11.8–14.5% 11.4–14.9% 11.2–15.2% 10.6–15.9%
GroenLinks 9.1% 10.8% 9.6–12.1% 9.3–12.5% 9.0–12.8% 8.5–13.5%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 10.1% 9.0–11.4% 8.7–11.8% 8.4–12.1% 7.9–12.7%
Democraten 66 12.2% 8.4% 7.4–9.6% 7.1–9.9% 6.9–10.2% 6.4–10.8%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 8.1% 7.1–9.3% 6.8–9.6% 6.6–9.9% 6.1–10.5%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 6.3% 5.4–7.4% 5.2–7.7% 5.0–7.9% 4.6–8.5%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 5.4% 4.6–6.4% 4.4–6.7% 4.2–7.0% 3.9–7.5%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 5.3% 4.5–6.3% 4.3–6.6% 4.1–6.9% 3.8–7.4%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.1% 3.4–5.0% 3.2–5.3% 3.0–5.5% 2.8–5.9%
50Plus 3.1% 3.7% 3.1–4.6% 2.9–4.8% 2.7–5.0% 2.4–5.5%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.4% 1.9–3.1% 1.7–3.3% 1.6–3.5% 1.4–3.9%
DENK 2.1% 1.8% 1.4–2.5% 1.3–2.7% 1.2–2.8% 1.0–3.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 30 29–34 28–34 28–35 27–36
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 20 19–23 18–24 17–24 16–24
GroenLinks 14 17 14–19 14–19 14–19 13–19
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 15 12–16 12–18 11–18 11–19
Democraten 66 19 13 12–15 11–15 10–15 9–16
Socialistische Partij 14 12 9–15 9–15 9–15 9–16
Forum voor Democratie 2 10 8–11 8–11 8–11 7–12
Partij van de Arbeid 9 7 6–9 6–10 6–11 5–12
Partij voor de Dieren 5 8 6–9 5–10 5–10 5–11
ChristenUnie 5 6 5–8 5–8 4–8 4–8
50Plus 4 5 4–6 3–7 3–7 3–8
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 3 2–4 2–5 2–5 2–6
DENK 3 3 2–3 1–3 1–4 1–5

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.3% 99.9%  
27 0.9% 99.6%  
28 7% 98.7%  
29 24% 92%  
30 18% 68% Median
31 6% 50%  
32 6% 44%  
33 19% 38% Last Result
34 15% 18%  
35 2% 3%  
36 1.5% 2%  
37 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.5% 99.9%  
17 2% 99.4%  
18 3% 97%  
19 43% 94%  
20 16% 51% Last Result, Median
21 8% 35%  
22 17% 27%  
23 3% 11%  
24 7% 7%  
25 0% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 2% 99.9%  
14 27% 98% Last Result
15 6% 71%  
16 14% 65%  
17 15% 51% Median
18 17% 36%  
19 19% 19%  
20 0.4% 0.4%  
21 0% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 4% 100%  
12 7% 96%  
13 9% 88%  
14 6% 80%  
15 32% 74% Median
16 34% 41%  
17 2% 7%  
18 5% 5%  
19 0.6% 0.6% Last Result
20 0% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.6% 100%  
10 3% 99.3%  
11 3% 96%  
12 14% 93%  
13 44% 79% Median
14 14% 35%  
15 19% 20%  
16 1.4% 1.4%  
17 0% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 12% 100%  
10 3% 88%  
11 5% 85%  
12 42% 80% Median
13 19% 38%  
14 2% 19% Last Result
15 15% 17%  
16 2% 2%  
17 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0.1% 100%  
7 2% 99.9%  
8 14% 98%  
9 27% 84%  
10 28% 56% Median
11 28% 29%  
12 0.7% 1.0%  
13 0.3% 0.3%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 1.0% 100%  
6 11% 99.0%  
7 48% 88% Median
8 11% 40%  
9 23% 30% Last Result
10 3% 6%  
11 3% 4%  
12 0.6% 0.6%  
13 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 6% 100% Last Result
6 10% 94%  
7 10% 84%  
8 36% 74% Median
9 31% 37%  
10 5% 6%  
11 0.9% 1.3%  
12 0.3% 0.3%  
13 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100%  
4 5% 99.9%  
5 43% 95% Last Result
6 34% 52% Median
7 8% 18%  
8 10% 10%  
9 0.3% 0.3%  
10 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 6% 100%  
4 12% 94% Last Result
5 55% 83% Median
6 19% 28%  
7 8% 9%  
8 1.4% 1.4%  
9 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 45% 99.9%  
3 34% 55% Last Result, Median
4 14% 21%  
5 7% 7%  
6 0.5% 0.5%  
7 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 7% 100%  
2 22% 93%  
3 68% 71% Last Result, Median
4 3% 3%  
5 0.5% 0.5%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 90 82 99.7% 78–83 78–83 77–85 76–86
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 78 95% 76–82 76–82 75–83 72–84
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 74 75 49% 73–79 73–79 72–79 69–80
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 85 73 18% 68–78 68–78 67–78 67–80
GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 80 70 0.9% 68–73 68–73 66–73 65–76
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 66 0% 63–69 63–69 62–70 60–72
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 65 0% 62–69 60–69 60–69 60–70
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 65 0% 60–67 59–68 57–69 57–69
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 61 0% 56–64 56–64 54–64 54–67
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 59 0% 55–64 55–64 54–64 53–64
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 59 0% 55–62 54–62 53–64 53–64
GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 66 58 0% 55–60 55–61 54–61 52–65
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 56 0% 51–59 51–59 50–59 49–60
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 53 0% 49–58 49–58 48–59 48–61
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 61 53 0% 48–57 47–57 47–57 46–59
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 45 0% 43–49 41–50 41–50 40–51
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 38 0% 36–42 36–42 34–43 34–45
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 47 35 0% 32–40 32–40 32–40 31–42
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 28 0% 26–31 26–31 23–32 23–34
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 28 0% 25–31 25–31 25–31 24–34
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 22 0% 19–25 19–26 18–27 18–28

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100%  
75 0.2% 99.9%  
76 0.4% 99.7% Majority
77 3% 99.3%  
78 11% 96%  
79 2% 85%  
80 3% 83%  
81 18% 81% Median
82 36% 63%  
83 23% 27%  
84 0.4% 4%  
85 2% 3%  
86 1.3% 1.5%  
87 0.1% 0.2%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.2% 100%  
72 0.4% 99.8%  
73 0.4% 99.4%  
74 1.1% 99.0%  
75 3% 98%  
76 5% 95% Majority
77 32% 90% Last Result
78 7% 57% Median
79 18% 50%  
80 0.8% 32%  
81 9% 31%  
82 17% 22%  
83 4% 4%  
84 0.6% 0.8%  
85 0.1% 0.2%  
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.4% 100%  
69 0.2% 99.6%  
70 0.4% 99.4%  
71 1.2% 98.9%  
72 2% 98%  
73 10% 95%  
74 18% 85% Last Result
75 18% 67% Median
76 3% 49% Majority
77 17% 46%  
78 5% 29%  
79 23% 25%  
80 1.5% 2%  
81 0.3% 0.4%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.2% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.8%  
67 4% 99.7%  
68 7% 95%  
69 1.1% 89%  
70 24% 88%  
71 3% 64% Median
72 6% 61%  
73 18% 55%  
74 2% 37%  
75 17% 35%  
76 5% 18% Majority
77 0.7% 14%  
78 12% 13%  
79 0.1% 1.0%  
80 0.8% 0.9%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Last Result

GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.2% 100%  
64 0% 99.7%  
65 0.2% 99.7%  
66 2% 99.5%  
67 2% 97%  
68 18% 95%  
69 3% 77%  
70 38% 74% Median
71 2% 36%  
72 23% 34%  
73 9% 11%  
74 0.8% 2%  
75 0.4% 1.2%  
76 0.5% 0.9% Majority
77 0.3% 0.4%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100%  
59 0.4% 99.9%  
60 0.2% 99.5%  
61 1.2% 99.3%  
62 0.7% 98%  
63 13% 97%  
64 17% 85%  
65 11% 68% Median
66 8% 57%  
67 4% 49%  
68 23% 45%  
69 20% 23%  
70 0.7% 3%  
71 1.3% 2%  
72 0.5% 0.5% Last Result
73 0% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.2% 99.9%  
59 0.2% 99.7%  
60 8% 99.6%  
61 1.3% 92%  
62 8% 90%  
63 19% 83%  
64 13% 64% Median
65 6% 51%  
66 9% 44%  
67 6% 35%  
68 16% 29%  
69 13% 14%  
70 0.7% 0.9%  
71 0% 0.2%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 3% 100%  
58 0.3% 97%  
59 3% 96%  
60 11% 93%  
61 5% 82% Last Result
62 6% 77%  
63 16% 71% Median
64 4% 55%  
65 30% 50%  
66 0.9% 20%  
67 14% 19%  
68 1.0% 6%  
69 4% 5%  
70 0.2% 0.5%  
71 0.1% 0.3%  
72 0.2% 0.2%  
73 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 3% 100%  
55 0.3% 97%  
56 7% 96%  
57 8% 89%  
58 5% 82% Last Result
59 3% 77%  
60 8% 74% Median
61 21% 65%  
62 3% 44%  
63 23% 42%  
64 17% 18%  
65 0.4% 2%  
66 0.2% 1.4%  
67 1.0% 1.1%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.3% 100%  
53 0.6% 99.6%  
54 2% 99.1%  
55 11% 97%  
56 5% 86%  
57 2% 81%  
58 29% 79% Median
59 12% 50%  
60 3% 38%  
61 3% 35%  
62 16% 32%  
63 3% 16%  
64 13% 13%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.2% 99.8%  
53 4% 99.6%  
54 3% 96%  
55 9% 93%  
56 8% 84%  
57 0.9% 75% Last Result
58 23% 74% Median
59 15% 52%  
60 18% 37%  
61 0.6% 19%  
62 13% 18%  
63 0.9% 5%  
64 3% 4%  
65 0.1% 0.4%  
66 0.2% 0.2%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.2% 100%  
52 1.0% 99.8%  
53 1.0% 98.8%  
54 0.5% 98%  
55 21% 97%  
56 4% 77%  
57 10% 73%  
58 15% 63% Median
59 18% 48%  
60 20% 30%  
61 7% 9%  
62 0.4% 2%  
63 1.1% 2%  
64 0.1% 0.8%  
65 0.4% 0.6%  
66 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
67 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.6% 99.9%  
50 3% 99.3%  
51 7% 96%  
52 1.3% 89%  
53 14% 87%  
54 2% 73% Last Result
55 12% 71% Median
56 17% 59%  
57 9% 43%  
58 17% 34%  
59 16% 17%  
60 1.4% 2%  
61 0.4% 0.5%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100%  
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 5% 99.8%  
49 6% 95%  
50 1.4% 89%  
51 1.5% 88%  
52 34% 86% Median
53 9% 52%  
54 4% 43%  
55 4% 39%  
56 16% 35%  
57 2% 19%  
58 13% 18%  
59 4% 5%  
60 0.1% 0.6%  
61 0.1% 0.5% Last Result
62 0.4% 0.4%  
63 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.1% 99.9%  
46 0.5% 99.8%  
47 5% 99.4%  
48 7% 94%  
49 16% 87%  
50 7% 71% Median
51 9% 65%  
52 3% 55%  
53 17% 52%  
54 20% 35%  
55 2% 16%  
56 1.2% 14%  
57 12% 12%  
58 0.2% 0.7%  
59 0.4% 0.5%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0% 99.9%  
40 0.5% 99.9%  
41 8% 99.4%  
42 0.4% 92%  
43 6% 91%  
44 10% 85%  
45 30% 76% Median
46 8% 46%  
47 2% 38%  
48 2% 36%  
49 28% 34%  
50 5% 6%  
51 0.6% 1.0%  
52 0.4% 0.5% Last Result
53 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 3% 99.9%  
35 1.5% 97%  
36 25% 95%  
37 13% 70% Median
38 8% 58%  
39 1.1% 49%  
40 9% 48%  
41 23% 39%  
42 13% 16% Last Result
43 1.4% 3%  
44 1.2% 2%  
45 0.1% 0.5%  
46 0.4% 0.4%  
47 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.6% 99.9%  
32 12% 99.3%  
33 4% 87%  
34 13% 83%  
35 21% 70% Median
36 23% 49%  
37 1.1% 26%  
38 0.8% 25%  
39 6% 24%  
40 15% 17%  
41 1.1% 2%  
42 0.6% 0.8%  
43 0.2% 0.2%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 4% 100%  
24 0.3% 96%  
25 0.5% 96%  
26 5% 95%  
27 13% 90%  
28 41% 77% Median
29 9% 36%  
30 14% 27%  
31 11% 13%  
32 2% 3%  
33 0.4% 1.2% Last Result
34 0.4% 0.7%  
35 0.1% 0.3%  
36 0.2% 0.2%  
37 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.2% 100%  
24 1.1% 99.7%  
25 18% 98.6%  
26 4% 80%  
27 6% 76%  
28 24% 70% Median
29 21% 46%  
30 7% 24%  
31 16% 17%  
32 0.5% 1.5%  
33 0.1% 1.0%  
34 0.8% 0.9%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 4% 100%  
19 8% 96%  
20 1.3% 88%  
21 9% 87%  
22 28% 78% Median
23 18% 50%  
24 12% 31%  
25 14% 19%  
26 0.8% 5%  
27 4% 5%  
28 0.4% 0.7% Last Result
29 0.3% 0.3%  
30 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations