Opinion Poll by Peil.nl, 24–30 September 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 17.3% 16.5–18.3% 16.2–18.5% 16.0–18.7% 15.6–19.2%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 12.0% 11.3–12.8% 11.1–13.0% 10.9–13.2% 10.5–13.6%
GroenLinks 9.1% 12.0% 11.3–12.8% 11.1–13.0% 10.9–13.2% 10.5–13.6%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 8.7% 8.0–9.4% 7.8–9.6% 7.7–9.7% 7.4–10.1%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 8.7% 8.0–9.4% 7.8–9.6% 7.7–9.7% 7.4–10.1%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 8.7% 8.0–9.4% 7.8–9.6% 7.7–9.7% 7.4–10.1%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 7.3% 6.8–8.0% 6.6–8.2% 6.4–8.3% 6.2–8.6%
Democraten 66 12.2% 6.0% 5.5–6.6% 5.3–6.8% 5.2–6.9% 5.0–7.2%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 5.3% 4.8–5.9% 4.7–6.1% 4.6–6.2% 4.4–6.5%
DENK 2.1% 4.7% 4.2–5.2% 4.1–5.3% 4.0–5.5% 3.7–5.8%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.0% 3.6–4.5% 3.4–4.6% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.0%
50Plus 3.1% 3.3% 2.9–3.8% 2.8–3.9% 2.7–4.0% 2.6–4.3%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 26 24–27 24–27 24–27 24–28
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 17 17–18 17–19 17–20 17–20
GroenLinks 14 19 18–20 17–20 16–20 16–20
Socialistische Partij 14 12 12–13 12–14 12–14 12–15
Partij van de Arbeid 9 13 13 13 12–14 12–15
Forum voor Democratie 2 13 13–14 13–14 13–14 12–15
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 12 11–12 11–12 10–13 10–13
Democraten 66 19 9 8–10 8–10 7–10 7–11
Partij voor de Dieren 5 7 7–8 7–8 7–9 7–9
DENK 3 6 6–7 6–7 6–8 6–8
ChristenUnie 5 7 6–7 6–7 5–7 5–7
50Plus 4 6 4–6 4–6 4–6 4–6
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 3 3 2–3 2–3 2–3

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.4% 100%  
24 31% 99.6%  
25 3% 69%  
26 52% 65% Median
27 12% 13%  
28 0.8% 1.0%  
29 0.2% 0.2%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0% Last Result

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.3% 100%  
17 77% 99.7% Median
18 15% 23%  
19 4% 7%  
20 3% 3% Last Result
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0% 100% Last Result
15 0.1% 100%  
16 3% 99.9%  
17 6% 97%  
18 1.2% 91%  
19 59% 90% Median
20 31% 31%  
21 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 55% 99.9% Median
13 38% 44%  
14 6% 6% Last Result
15 0.5% 0.6%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 0% 100%  
11 0.3% 100%  
12 3% 99.7%  
13 92% 97% Median
14 3% 4%  
15 0.7% 0.9%  
16 0.2% 0.2%  
17 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0.2% 100%  
12 0.4% 99.7%  
13 50% 99.3% Median
14 49% 49%  
15 0.7% 0.8%  
16 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 0.2% 99.9%  
10 3% 99.7%  
11 42% 96%  
12 51% 54% Median
13 3% 3%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 3% 100%  
8 10% 97%  
9 52% 87% Median
10 34% 35%  
11 0.6% 0.6%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0% 100% Last Result
6 0.1% 100%  
7 62% 99.9% Median
8 35% 38%  
9 3% 3%  
10 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0% 100% Last Result
4 0% 100%  
5 0.3% 100%  
6 61% 99.7% Median
7 36% 39%  
8 3% 3%  
9 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.2% 100%  
5 4% 99.8% Last Result
6 46% 96%  
7 50% 50% Median
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.2% 100%  
4 40% 99.8% Last Result
5 5% 59%  
6 54% 54% Median
7 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 7% 100%  
3 92% 93% Last Result, Median
4 0.2% 0.2%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 71 0.1% 69–73 69–74 68–75 68–75
GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – Socialistische Partij – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 80 72 0% 69–73 69–73 69–74 68–74
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 90 71 0% 71–73 69–73 69–73 68–73
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 74 68 0% 66–70 66–71 66–73 66–73
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 85 66 0% 64–67 64–67 64–67 63–68
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 60 0% 56–60 56–61 54–61 54–61
GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 66 60 0% 57–60 56–60 55–60 54–61
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 55 0% 52–56 52–57 52–59 52–59
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus 58 57 0% 53–58 53–58 52–58 52–58
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 54 0% 52–55 52–55 50–56 50–56
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 53 0% 51–54 51–54 51–54 49–54
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 54 51 0% 49–52 49–53 48–53 48–53
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 61 51 0% 48–51 48–51 48–52 48–52
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 61 48 0% 47–48 47–49 46–49 46–51
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 47 0% 45–47 45–47 45–48 44–48
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 39 0% 37–40 37–40 37–40 37–41
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 38 0% 35–38 35–39 35–39 35–39
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 47 34 0% 32–34 32–34 32–34 31–35
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 33 31 0% 30–32 30–32 30–32 29–33
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 28 25 0% 24–25 24–25 24–26 23–26
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 21 0% 20–21 19–21 19–21 18–22

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 3% 100%  
69 32% 97%  
70 0.4% 65%  
71 46% 65% Median
72 0.8% 19%  
73 9% 18%  
74 5% 9%  
75 4% 4%  
76 0% 0.1% Majority
77 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
78 0% 0%  

GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – Socialistische Partij – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.2% 99.9%  
68 0.3% 99.7%  
69 17% 99.4%  
70 0.5% 82%  
71 1.1% 82%  
72 46% 81% Median
73 31% 34%  
74 3% 3%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0% Majority
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.4% 100%  
68 0.4% 99.5%  
69 6% 99.1%  
70 3% 93%  
71 43% 90%  
72 0.7% 47%  
73 47% 47% Median
74 0.2% 0.2%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Majority
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.2% 100%  
66 34% 99.8%  
67 0.7% 66%  
68 46% 65% Median
69 1.0% 19%  
70 9% 18%  
71 5% 9%  
72 0.4% 4%  
73 3% 3%  
74 0% 0.1% Last Result
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0% Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100%  
63 0.5% 99.9%  
64 31% 99.4%  
65 15% 68%  
66 6% 53%  
67 47% 48% Median
68 0.6% 0.7%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Majority
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 3% 100%  
55 0.8% 97%  
56 31% 97%  
57 0.7% 65%  
58 0.8% 65%  
59 4% 64%  
60 51% 60% Median
61 9% 9% Last Result
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0% 99.9%  
54 0.3% 99.8%  
55 3% 99.5%  
56 6% 97%  
57 9% 91%  
58 1.2% 82%  
59 0.3% 81%  
60 80% 80% Median
61 0.7% 0.7%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 31% 100%  
53 3% 69%  
54 2% 66%  
55 46% 65% Median
56 9% 18%  
57 5% 9%  
58 0.3% 4%  
59 3% 4%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 3% 100%  
53 32% 97%  
54 0.7% 65%  
55 0.9% 65%  
56 3% 64%  
57 49% 61% Median
58 12% 12% Last Result
59 0.2% 0.2%  
60 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 3% 100%  
51 1.0% 97%  
52 31% 96%  
53 1.3% 65%  
54 46% 64% Median
55 15% 18%  
56 3% 3%  
57 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
58 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.5% 100%  
50 0.1% 99.5%  
51 31% 99.4%  
52 17% 68%  
53 1.1% 50%  
54 49% 49% Median
55 0.3% 0.5%  
56 0.2% 0.2%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 3% 100%  
49 32% 97%  
50 1.4% 65%  
51 46% 64% Median
52 12% 18%  
53 6% 6%  
54 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
55 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0% 100%  
48 31% 99.9%  
49 4% 69%  
50 0.5% 65%  
51 60% 64% Median
52 4% 5%  
53 0.4% 0.4%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 4% 99.9%  
47 31% 96%  
48 60% 65% Median
49 3% 5%  
50 0.9% 2%  
51 0.4% 0.7%  
52 0.1% 0.3%  
53 0.2% 0.2%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0% 99.9%  
44 0.4% 99.8%  
45 34% 99.4%  
46 13% 66%  
47 49% 52% Median
48 3% 3%  
49 0.2% 0.5%  
50 0.3% 0.3%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 31% 99.9%  
38 1.0% 68%  
39 56% 67% Median
40 10% 11%  
41 1.2% 2%  
42 0.2% 0.4% Last Result
43 0.2% 0.2%  
44 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 34% 99.9%  
36 0.7% 66%  
37 1.2% 65%  
38 58% 64% Median
39 6% 6%  
40 0.2% 0.3%  
41 0.2% 0.2%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.2% 100%  
31 0.5% 99.8%  
32 10% 99.4%  
33 6% 90%  
34 82% 84% Median
35 2% 2%  
36 0.3% 0.4%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0% 100%  
28 0.3% 99.9%  
29 0.7% 99.6%  
30 46% 98.9%  
31 4% 53%  
32 49% 50% Median
33 0.6% 0.6% Last Result
34 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.4% 100%  
23 0.9% 99.5%  
24 46% 98.7%  
25 48% 53% Median
26 4% 4%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.4% 99.9%  
19 9% 99.5%  
20 7% 90%  
21 82% 83% Median
22 0.9% 1.0%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations