Opinion Poll by Peil.nl, 15–21 October 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 16.0% 15.2–16.9% 14.9–17.1% 14.7–17.4% 14.3–17.8%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 12.0% 11.3–12.8% 11.1–13.0% 10.9–13.2% 10.5–13.6%
GroenLinks 9.1% 12.0% 11.3–12.8% 11.1–13.0% 10.9–13.2% 10.5–13.6%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 9.3% 8.7–10.1% 8.5–10.3% 8.3–10.4% 8.0–10.8%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 9.3% 8.7–10.1% 8.5–10.3% 8.3–10.4% 8.0–10.8%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 8.7% 8.0–9.4% 7.8–9.6% 7.7–9.7% 7.4–10.1%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 7.3% 6.8–8.0% 6.6–8.2% 6.4–8.3% 6.2–8.6%
Democraten 66 12.2% 6.0% 5.5–6.6% 5.3–6.8% 5.2–6.9% 5.0–7.2%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 5.3% 4.8–5.9% 4.7–6.1% 4.6–6.2% 4.4–6.5%
DENK 2.1% 4.7% 4.2–5.2% 4.1–5.3% 4.0–5.5% 3.7–5.8%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.0% 3.6–4.5% 3.4–4.6% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.0%
50Plus 3.1% 3.3% 2.9–3.8% 2.8–3.9% 2.7–4.0% 2.6–4.3%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 25 24–25 24–26 24–27 23–27
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 19 19–20 19–20 19–21 17–21
GroenLinks 14 19 17–19 17–19 17–19 16–21
Partij van de Arbeid 9 14 14 14 14–15 13–16
Forum voor Democratie 2 16 13–16 13–16 13–16 13–16
Socialistische Partij 14 12 12 12–13 12–13 11–13
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 10 10–11 10–11 10–11 9–12
Democraten 66 19 8 8–10 8–10 8–11 8–11
Partij voor de Dieren 5 8 8 7–9 7–9 7–9
DENK 3 6 6–7 6–8 6–8 6–8
ChristenUnie 5 6 6 5–6 5–7 5–7
50Plus 4 4 4 4–5 4–5 4–6
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.3% 100%  
23 0.5% 99.7%  
24 11% 99.2%  
25 82% 88% Median
26 3% 6%  
27 2% 3%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0% Last Result

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.4% 100%  
17 0.4% 99.6%  
18 1.3% 99.2%  
19 85% 98% Median
20 10% 12% Last Result
21 3% 3%  
22 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0% 100% Last Result
15 0.4% 100%  
16 0.2% 99.6%  
17 15% 99.4%  
18 8% 84%  
19 75% 76% Median
20 0.4% 2%  
21 1.2% 1.2%  
22 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 1.4% 100%  
14 94% 98.5% Median
15 4% 4%  
16 0.5% 0.5%  
17 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0.3% 100%  
12 0% 99.7%  
13 10% 99.7%  
14 1.2% 90%  
15 15% 88%  
16 74% 74% Median
17 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.5% 100%  
12 92% 99.5% Median
13 7% 7%  
14 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.5% 100%  
10 88% 99.5% Median
11 11% 12%  
12 0.5% 0.7%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.1% 100%  
8 80% 99.9% Median
9 8% 20%  
10 8% 12%  
11 4% 4%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0% 100% Last Result
6 0% 100%  
7 7% 100%  
8 87% 93% Median
9 6% 6%  
10 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0% 100% Last Result
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 75% 100% Median
7 20% 25%  
8 5% 5%  
9 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 9% 100% Last Result
6 87% 91% Median
7 4% 4%  
8 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 93% 100% Last Result, Median
5 6% 7%  
6 1.4% 1.4%  
7 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 12% 100%  
3 87% 88% Last Result, Median
4 0.3% 0.3%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 73 0% 72–73 69–73 68–73 67–73
GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – Socialistische Partij – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 80 69 0% 69–70 68–72 67–72 67–73
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 74 70 0% 69–70 67–71 66–71 64–71
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 90 68 0% 67–69 67–70 66–70 66–71
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 85 63 0% 63–65 63–65 63–66 63–67
GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 66 57 0% 57–58 55–60 55–60 55–60
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 58 0% 56–58 56–58 53–58 53–59
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 54 0% 54–55 53–56 53–58 51–58
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus 58 55 0% 53–55 53–55 51–56 51–56
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 54 0% 52–54 50–54 49–54 49–54
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 49 0% 49–51 49–51 49–52 48–52
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 61 49 0% 48–50 48–51 48–52 47–52
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 54 51 0% 49–51 48–51 47–51 47–51
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 61 47 0% 47–48 47–49 47–50 47–51
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 43 0% 43–45 43–45 43–46 43–46
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 39 0% 38–39 38–40 38–41 37–42
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 35 0% 34–36 34–37 34–37 33–37
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 47 32 0% 32–34 32–35 32–35 32–36
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 33 30 0% 30–31 30–31 30–31 29–33
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 28 24 0% 24–25 24–25 24–25 23–27
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 18 0% 18–20 18–20 18–21 18–21

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.7% 100%  
68 4% 99.3%  
69 1.4% 95%  
70 0.2% 94%  
71 2% 94%  
72 9% 92%  
73 83% 83% Median
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0% Majority
77 0% 0% Last Result

GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – Socialistische Partij – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 3% 100%  
68 3% 97%  
69 83% 94% Median
70 4% 11%  
71 2% 7%  
72 5% 5%  
73 0.6% 0.6%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Majority
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.2% 100%  
64 0.4% 99.8%  
65 0.1% 99.4%  
66 4% 99.3%  
67 1.3% 95%  
68 0.6% 94%  
69 10% 93%  
70 77% 83% Median
71 6% 6%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0.2% 99.9%  
66 4% 99.8%  
67 9% 96%  
68 76% 87% Median
69 4% 10%  
70 5% 6%  
71 2% 2%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Majority
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 78% 99.9% Median
64 7% 22%  
65 10% 15%  
66 4% 5%  
67 0.5% 0.6%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Majority
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Last Result

GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 5% 100%  
56 3% 95%  
57 80% 91% Median
58 5% 11%  
59 1.4% 6%  
60 5% 5%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 4% 100%  
54 0.2% 96%  
55 0.9% 96%  
56 10% 95%  
57 4% 85%  
58 81% 81% Median
59 0.4% 0.6%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.2% 100%  
50 0.1% 99.8%  
51 0.6% 99.7%  
52 0.2% 99.1%  
53 4% 98.8%  
54 82% 95% Median
55 4% 13%  
56 5% 8%  
57 0.1% 3%  
58 3% 3%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 4% 100%  
52 0.3% 96%  
53 8% 96%  
54 6% 88%  
55 79% 83% Median
56 4% 4%  
57 0% 0.1%  
58 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
59 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 4% 100%  
50 1.4% 96%  
51 0.8% 95%  
52 11% 94%  
53 6% 83%  
54 77% 78% Median
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.4% 99.9%  
49 77% 99.5% Median
50 10% 22%  
51 8% 12%  
52 4% 4%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.5% 100%  
48 11% 99.5%  
49 74% 88% Median
50 8% 14%  
51 3% 6%  
52 3% 3%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.4% 100%  
47 4% 99.6%  
48 2% 96%  
49 7% 94%  
50 7% 87%  
51 80% 81% Median
52 0.1% 0.2%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.1% 99.9%  
47 78% 99.8% Median
48 12% 22%  
49 7% 10%  
50 2% 3%  
51 0.5% 0.5%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0% 100%  
42 0.4% 99.9%  
43 74% 99.5% Median
44 11% 25%  
45 11% 14%  
46 3% 3%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.6% 99.9%  
38 12% 99.4%  
39 81% 87% Median
40 4% 7%  
41 0.4% 3%  
42 2% 2% Last Result
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.3% 100%  
33 0.4% 99.7%  
34 10% 99.3%  
35 76% 89% Median
36 7% 13%  
37 5% 5%  
38 0% 0.2%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 75% 100% Median
33 6% 25%  
34 14% 19%  
35 5% 5%  
36 0.6% 0.7%  
37 0% 0.1%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 1.3% 100%  
30 89% 98.7% Median
31 9% 10%  
32 0% 0.6%  
33 0% 0.5% Last Result
34 0% 0.5%  
35 0.5% 0.5%  
36 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 1.3% 100%  
24 84% 98.7% Median
25 14% 15%  
26 0.3% 0.9%  
27 0.1% 0.5%  
28 0.4% 0.5% Last Result
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 76% 100% Median
19 5% 24%  
20 14% 19%  
21 5% 5%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations