Opinion Poll by Ipsos for EenVandaag, 23–26 November 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions

Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval | 
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie | 21.3% | 18.7% | 17.2–20.3% | 16.8–20.8% | 16.4–21.2% | 15.7–22.0% | 
| Partij voor de Vrijheid | 13.1% | 13.5% | 12.2–15.0% | 11.9–15.4% | 11.6–15.8% | 11.0–16.5% | 
| GroenLinks | 9.1% | 10.8% | 9.6–12.1% | 9.3–12.5% | 9.0–12.8% | 8.5–13.5% | 
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 12.4% | 9.6% | 8.5–10.9% | 8.2–11.3% | 8.0–11.6% | 7.5–12.2% | 
| Democraten 66 | 12.2% | 8.2% | 7.2–9.4% | 6.9–9.7% | 6.6–10.0% | 6.2–10.6% | 
| Socialistische Partij | 9.1% | 8.2% | 7.2–9.4% | 6.9–9.7% | 6.6–10.0% | 6.2–10.6% | 
| Forum voor Democratie | 1.8% | 6.6% | 5.7–7.7% | 5.5–8.0% | 5.2–8.3% | 4.8–8.9% | 
| Partij van de Arbeid | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.5–7.5% | 5.3–7.8% | 5.1–8.1% | 4.7–8.6% | 
| Partij voor de Dieren | 3.2% | 4.7% | 3.9–5.6% | 3.7–5.9% | 3.5–6.1% | 3.2–6.6% | 
| ChristenUnie | 3.4% | 4.3% | 3.6–5.2% | 3.4–5.5% | 3.2–5.7% | 2.9–6.2% | 
| 50Plus | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.0–4.5% | 2.8–4.7% | 2.6–4.9% | 2.3–5.4% | 
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.0–3.3% | 1.8–3.5% | 1.7–3.7% | 1.5–4.1% | 
| DENK | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.7–2.9% | 1.5–3.0% | 1.4–3.2% | 1.2–3.6% | 
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats


Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval | 
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie | 33 | 30 | 26–33 | 25–33 | 24–33 | 24–34 | 
| Partij voor de Vrijheid | 20 | 21 | 19–23 | 18–23 | 17–23 | 16–24 | 
| GroenLinks | 14 | 16 | 14–18 | 14–19 | 14–19 | 12–20 | 
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 19 | 15 | 12–16 | 12–17 | 12–17 | 11–18 | 
| Democraten 66 | 19 | 11 | 9–15 | 9–15 | 9–16 | 9–16 | 
| Socialistische Partij | 14 | 12 | 11–14 | 10–14 | 10–15 | 9–16 | 
| Forum voor Democratie | 2 | 9 | 9–11 | 9–12 | 8–12 | 7–13 | 
| Partij van de Arbeid | 9 | 9 | 8–11 | 8–12 | 8–12 | 7–13 | 
| Partij voor de Dieren | 5 | 7 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 5–9 | 5–10 | 
| ChristenUnie | 5 | 6 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–9 | 4–9 | 
| 50Plus | 4 | 6 | 4–6 | 4–7 | 3–7 | 3–8 | 
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 3 | 4 | 3–5 | 2–5 | 2–6 | 2–6 | 
| DENK | 3 | 3 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 1–5 | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 5% | 99.7% | |
| 25 | 5% | 95% | |
| 26 | 5% | 90% | |
| 27 | 3% | 86% | |
| 28 | 4% | 83% | |
| 29 | 16% | 78% | |
| 30 | 43% | 62% | Median | 
| 31 | 5% | 19% | |
| 32 | 0.9% | 13% | |
| 33 | 11% | 13% | Last Result | 
| 34 | 2% | 2% | |
| 35 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | 
Partij voor de Vrijheid
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 17 | 4% | 99.5% | |
| 18 | 2% | 95% | |
| 19 | 12% | 93% | |
| 20 | 18% | 82% | Last Result | 
| 21 | 29% | 64% | Median | 
| 22 | 22% | 35% | |
| 23 | 12% | 13% | |
| 24 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 25 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 26 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | 
GroenLinks
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.5% | 99.3% | |
| 14 | 14% | 98.8% | Last Result | 
| 15 | 9% | 85% | |
| 16 | 41% | 76% | Median | 
| 17 | 17% | 35% | |
| 18 | 12% | 18% | |
| 19 | 4% | 5% | |
| 20 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 21 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | 
Christen-Democratisch Appèl
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 12 | 11% | 98.9% | |
| 13 | 6% | 88% | |
| 14 | 25% | 82% | |
| 15 | 37% | 56% | Median | 
| 16 | 13% | 19% | |
| 17 | 4% | 6% | |
| 18 | 2% | 2% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result | 
| 20 | 0% | 0% | 
Democraten 66
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 9 | 26% | 99.9% | |
| 10 | 15% | 74% | |
| 11 | 12% | 59% | Median | 
| 12 | 12% | 47% | |
| 13 | 16% | 35% | |
| 14 | 3% | 19% | |
| 15 | 12% | 16% | |
| 16 | 4% | 4% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | Last Result | 
Socialistische Partij
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 10 | 8% | 99.4% | |
| 11 | 6% | 91% | |
| 12 | 35% | 85% | Median | 
| 13 | 35% | 50% | |
| 14 | 12% | 15% | Last Result | 
| 15 | 3% | 4% | |
| 16 | 1.1% | 1.2% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | 
Forum voor Democratie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0% | 100% | Last Result | 
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 7 | 1.0% | 99.8% | |
| 8 | 3% | 98.8% | |
| 9 | 59% | 96% | Median | 
| 10 | 23% | 37% | |
| 11 | 8% | 14% | |
| 12 | 4% | 6% | |
| 13 | 2% | 2% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 15 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | 
Partij van de Arbeid
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 7 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 8 | 46% | 98% | |
| 9 | 18% | 52% | Last Result, Median | 
| 10 | 22% | 34% | |
| 11 | 4% | 12% | |
| 12 | 6% | 8% | |
| 13 | 1.2% | 1.2% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | 
Partij voor de Dieren
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 5 | 2% | 99.8% | Last Result | 
| 6 | 23% | 97% | |
| 7 | 55% | 74% | Median | 
| 8 | 4% | 19% | |
| 9 | 14% | 15% | |
| 10 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | 
ChristenUnie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 2% | 100% | |
| 5 | 16% | 98% | Last Result | 
| 6 | 39% | 82% | Median | 
| 7 | 5% | 43% | |
| 8 | 35% | 39% | |
| 9 | 3% | 4% | |
| 10 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | 
50Plus
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3% | 100% | |
| 4 | 22% | 97% | Last Result | 
| 5 | 15% | 75% | |
| 6 | 54% | 60% | Median | 
| 7 | 5% | 5% | |
| 8 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | 
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 2 | 6% | 99.8% | |
| 3 | 21% | 93% | Last Result | 
| 4 | 60% | 73% | Median | 
| 5 | 9% | 12% | |
| 6 | 3% | 4% | |
| 7 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | 
DENK
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 2 | 32% | 99.4% | |
| 3 | 52% | 68% | Last Result, Median | 
| 4 | 14% | 16% | |
| 5 | 2% | 2% | |
| 6 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | 
Coalitions

Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval | 
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 77 | 79 | 80% | 75–82 | 73–83 | 72–85 | 71–85 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie | 90 | 78 | 90% | 75–81 | 73–81 | 73–82 | 72–84 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie | 74 | 75 | 21% | 71–78 | 70–78 | 69–80 | 68–80 | 
| GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie | 80 | 69 | 6% | 68–75 | 68–76 | 67–77 | 65–77 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie | 85 | 70 | 2% | 68–75 | 68–75 | 67–75 | 66–78 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 72 | 65 | 0% | 61–69 | 60–69 | 59–69 | 58–69 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 61 | 64 | 0% | 59–65 | 58–67 | 57–67 | 55–68 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie | 76 | 62 | 0% | 59–66 | 56–66 | 56–66 | 56–68 | 
| GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie | 66 | 57 | 0% | 56–61 | 55–63 | 55–63 | 53–67 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 57 | 58 | 0% | 53–61 | 53–62 | 52–63 | 50–63 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus | 58 | 60 | 0% | 55–61 | 55–62 | 54–62 | 52–64 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 | 71 | 54 | 0% | 51–60 | 51–60 | 51–60 | 49–61 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie | 54 | 54 | 0% | 50–56 | 49–58 | 49–58 | 47–59 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid | 61 | 53 | 0% | 51–56 | 50–56 | 48–57 | 47–58 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid | 61 | 49 | 0% | 47–55 | 47–55 | 46–55 | 45–58 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 52 | 45 | 0% | 41–47 | 39–47 | 39–47 | 38–49 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid | 42 | 38 | 0% | 36–42 | 35–42 | 34–42 | 33–44 | 
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid | 47 | 35 | 0% | 32–39 | 32–40 | 32–40 | 30–43 | 
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie | 33 | 30 | 0% | 28–32 | 28–33 | 27–34 | 24–35 | 
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 | 38 | 27 | 0% | 23–29 | 22–31 | 22–31 | 21–32 | 
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid | 28 | 23 | 0% | 22–27 | 22–27 | 21–28 | 19–28 | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 69 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 71 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 72 | 3% | 99.1% | |
| 73 | 1.1% | 96% | |
| 74 | 4% | 95% | |
| 75 | 11% | 91% | |
| 76 | 15% | 80% | Majority | 
| 77 | 3% | 66% | Last Result | 
| 78 | 11% | 62% | |
| 79 | 28% | 51% | Median | 
| 80 | 2% | 23% | |
| 81 | 4% | 21% | |
| 82 | 11% | 16% | |
| 83 | 1.5% | 5% | |
| 84 | 0.1% | 4% | |
| 85 | 4% | 4% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 70 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 72 | 1.2% | 99.7% | |
| 73 | 5% | 98.5% | |
| 74 | 2% | 94% | |
| 75 | 2% | 92% | |
| 76 | 13% | 90% | Majority | 
| 77 | 7% | 76% | |
| 78 | 30% | 70% | Median | 
| 79 | 1.5% | 40% | |
| 80 | 13% | 38% | |
| 81 | 21% | 25% | |
| 82 | 3% | 4% | |
| 83 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 84 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 86 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | Last Result | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 65 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 67 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 68 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 69 | 4% | 99.0% | |
| 70 | 3% | 95% | |
| 71 | 9% | 92% | |
| 72 | 4% | 84% | |
| 73 | 15% | 80% | |
| 74 | 12% | 64% | Last Result | 
| 75 | 31% | 52% | Median | 
| 76 | 2% | 21% | Majority | 
| 77 | 2% | 19% | |
| 78 | 12% | 16% | |
| 79 | 0.3% | 4% | |
| 80 | 4% | 4% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | 
GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 64 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 65 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 66 | 1.2% | 99.1% | |
| 67 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 68 | 20% | 97% | |
| 69 | 37% | 77% | Median | 
| 70 | 2% | 40% | |
| 71 | 13% | 38% | |
| 72 | 5% | 25% | |
| 73 | 1.4% | 20% | |
| 74 | 5% | 19% | |
| 75 | 8% | 14% | |
| 76 | 1.1% | 6% | Majority | 
| 77 | 5% | 5% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 79 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | Last Result | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 65 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 66 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 67 | 2% | 98% | |
| 68 | 7% | 96% | |
| 69 | 16% | 89% | |
| 70 | 27% | 73% | |
| 71 | 10% | 46% | Median | 
| 72 | 3% | 36% | |
| 73 | 11% | 33% | |
| 74 | 5% | 23% | |
| 75 | 16% | 18% | |
| 76 | 0.7% | 2% | Majority | 
| 77 | 0.6% | 1.2% | |
| 78 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 79 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 80 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | Last Result | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 56 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 58 | 1.2% | 99.6% | |
| 59 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 60 | 3% | 97% | |
| 61 | 9% | 94% | |
| 62 | 4% | 84% | |
| 63 | 3% | 80% | |
| 64 | 25% | 77% | |
| 65 | 6% | 52% | |
| 66 | 29% | 46% | Median | 
| 67 | 2% | 17% | |
| 68 | 0.2% | 15% | |
| 69 | 15% | 15% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 72 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result | 
| 73 | 0% | 0% | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 54 | 0% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0.8% | 99.9% | |
| 56 | 1.2% | 99.2% | |
| 57 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 58 | 3% | 97% | |
| 59 | 7% | 94% | |
| 60 | 7% | 87% | |
| 61 | 9% | 79% | Last Result | 
| 62 | 12% | 71% | |
| 63 | 7% | 59% | |
| 64 | 40% | 52% | Median | 
| 65 | 3% | 12% | |
| 66 | 1.0% | 9% | |
| 67 | 7% | 8% | |
| 68 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 69 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 70 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 54 | 0% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 56 | 5% | 99.8% | |
| 57 | 0.7% | 94% | |
| 58 | 3% | 94% | |
| 59 | 14% | 91% | |
| 60 | 3% | 76% | |
| 61 | 7% | 74% | |
| 62 | 27% | 66% | Median | 
| 63 | 7% | 39% | |
| 64 | 6% | 32% | |
| 65 | 10% | 26% | |
| 66 | 15% | 16% | |
| 67 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 68 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 69 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | Last Result, Majority | 
GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 53 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 54 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 55 | 4% | 98% | |
| 56 | 39% | 94% | |
| 57 | 12% | 55% | Median | 
| 58 | 6% | 44% | |
| 59 | 14% | 37% | |
| 60 | 4% | 24% | |
| 61 | 12% | 20% | |
| 62 | 2% | 8% | |
| 63 | 4% | 6% | |
| 64 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 65 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 66 | 0.2% | 2% | Last Result | 
| 67 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0.8% | 99.9% | |
| 51 | 0.9% | 99.1% | |
| 52 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 53 | 8% | 97% | |
| 54 | 2% | 89% | |
| 55 | 13% | 87% | |
| 56 | 14% | 74% | |
| 57 | 6% | 60% | Last Result | 
| 58 | 27% | 53% | Median | 
| 59 | 3% | 26% | |
| 60 | 13% | 23% | |
| 61 | 3% | 10% | |
| 62 | 3% | 8% | |
| 63 | 4% | 4% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 65 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 53 | 1.3% | 99.1% | |
| 54 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 55 | 9% | 97% | |
| 56 | 4% | 88% | |
| 57 | 10% | 84% | |
| 58 | 5% | 74% | Last Result | 
| 59 | 16% | 69% | |
| 60 | 40% | 53% | Median | 
| 61 | 5% | 12% | |
| 62 | 6% | 8% | |
| 63 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 64 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 65 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 48 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 50 | 1.2% | 99.4% | |
| 51 | 14% | 98% | |
| 52 | 1.3% | 84% | |
| 53 | 6% | 83% | |
| 54 | 29% | 78% | |
| 55 | 8% | 49% | |
| 56 | 4% | 41% | Median | 
| 57 | 4% | 37% | |
| 58 | 7% | 32% | |
| 59 | 10% | 26% | |
| 60 | 15% | 16% | |
| 61 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 63 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | Last Result | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 46 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 48 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 49 | 5% | 98% | |
| 50 | 3% | 92% | |
| 51 | 11% | 89% | |
| 52 | 6% | 78% | |
| 53 | 18% | 72% | |
| 54 | 27% | 55% | Last Result, Median | 
| 55 | 3% | 27% | |
| 56 | 18% | 24% | |
| 57 | 2% | 7% | |
| 58 | 4% | 5% | |
| 59 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 60 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 47 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 48 | 1.5% | 98.8% | |
| 49 | 2% | 97% | |
| 50 | 2% | 95% | |
| 51 | 18% | 93% | |
| 52 | 12% | 75% | |
| 53 | 33% | 63% | |
| 54 | 5% | 30% | Median | 
| 55 | 8% | 24% | |
| 56 | 13% | 17% | |
| 57 | 2% | 3% | |
| 58 | 0.8% | 1.3% | |
| 59 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0.2% | Last Result | 
| 62 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 45 | 1.2% | 99.7% | |
| 46 | 2% | 98% | |
| 47 | 30% | 96% | |
| 48 | 8% | 66% | |
| 49 | 10% | 59% | |
| 50 | 12% | 49% | Median | 
| 51 | 4% | 37% | |
| 52 | 4% | 33% | |
| 53 | 13% | 29% | |
| 54 | 4% | 16% | |
| 55 | 11% | 13% | |
| 56 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 57 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 58 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 59 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | Last Result | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 38 | 1.1% | 99.6% | |
| 39 | 5% | 98% | |
| 40 | 1.4% | 93% | |
| 41 | 15% | 92% | |
| 42 | 4% | 77% | |
| 43 | 6% | 73% | |
| 44 | 17% | 67% | |
| 45 | 28% | 50% | Median | 
| 46 | 5% | 22% | |
| 47 | 16% | 17% | |
| 48 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 49 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 50 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | Last Result | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 33 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 34 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 35 | 6% | 97% | |
| 36 | 7% | 91% | |
| 37 | 4% | 85% | |
| 38 | 42% | 81% | |
| 39 | 15% | 38% | Median | 
| 40 | 8% | 23% | |
| 41 | 1.2% | 16% | |
| 42 | 12% | 14% | Last Result | 
| 43 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 44 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 45 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 46 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | 
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 31 | 1.3% | 99.5% | |
| 32 | 36% | 98% | |
| 33 | 0.6% | 62% | |
| 34 | 1.4% | 61% | |
| 35 | 10% | 60% | Median | 
| 36 | 16% | 50% | |
| 37 | 15% | 34% | |
| 38 | 5% | 19% | |
| 39 | 7% | 13% | |
| 40 | 4% | 7% | |
| 41 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 42 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 43 | 2% | 2% | |
| 44 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | Last Result | 
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.5% | 99.4% | |
| 26 | 0.5% | 98.8% | |
| 27 | 3% | 98% | |
| 28 | 12% | 95% | |
| 29 | 19% | 83% | |
| 30 | 15% | 64% | Median | 
| 31 | 32% | 50% | |
| 32 | 9% | 18% | |
| 33 | 4% | 9% | Last Result | 
| 34 | 3% | 5% | |
| 35 | 1.1% | 1.4% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 37 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | 
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 22 | 9% | 99.5% | |
| 23 | 1.2% | 91% | |
| 24 | 30% | 89% | |
| 25 | 4% | 59% | |
| 26 | 6% | 56% | Median | 
| 27 | 26% | 50% | |
| 28 | 4% | 24% | |
| 29 | 13% | 20% | |
| 30 | 0.9% | 6% | |
| 31 | 4% | 6% | |
| 32 | 2% | 2% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 34 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | Last Result | 
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 20 | 1.3% | 99.4% | |
| 21 | 3% | 98% | |
| 22 | 21% | 95% | |
| 23 | 41% | 75% | |
| 24 | 13% | 33% | Median | 
| 25 | 1.2% | 21% | |
| 26 | 8% | 19% | |
| 27 | 7% | 12% | |
| 28 | 4% | 4% | Last Result | 
| 29 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 30 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | 
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos
 - Commissioner(s): EenVandaag
 - Fieldwork period: 23–26 November 2018
 
Calculations
- Sample size: 1028
 - Simulations done: 1,048,576
 - Error estimate: 3.86%