Opinion Poll by I&O Research, 22–27 November 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 17.1% 16.3–18.0% 16.1–18.3% 15.9–18.5% 15.5–18.9%
GroenLinks 9.1% 12.5% 11.8–13.3% 11.6–13.5% 11.4–13.7% 11.1–14.1%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 11.8% 11.1–12.6% 10.9–12.8% 10.7–13.0% 10.4–13.4%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 9.6% 9.0–10.3% 8.8–10.5% 8.6–10.7% 8.4–11.1%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 9.5% 8.9–10.2% 8.7–10.4% 8.5–10.6% 8.2–10.9%
Democraten 66 12.2% 8.2% 7.6–8.9% 7.4–9.1% 7.3–9.2% 7.0–9.5%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 8.0% 7.4–8.7% 7.3–8.9% 7.1–9.0% 6.8–9.3%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 6.4% 5.9–7.0% 5.7–7.2% 5.6–7.3% 5.4–7.6%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.3% 3.9–4.8% 3.8–5.0% 3.7–5.1% 3.5–5.3%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 3.8% 3.4–4.3% 3.3–4.4% 3.2–4.6% 3.0–4.8%
50Plus 3.1% 3.0% 2.7–3.5% 2.6–3.6% 2.5–3.7% 2.3–3.9%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.7% 2.4–3.1% 2.3–3.2% 2.2–3.3% 2.0–3.6%
DENK 2.1% 2.4% 2.1–2.8% 2.0–2.9% 1.9–3.0% 1.8–3.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 27 26–28 25–29 25–29 24–29
GroenLinks 14 19 17–20 17–21 16–21 16–21
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 18 16–20 16–20 16–20 16–21
Socialistische Partij 14 14 14–16 13–17 13–17 12–17
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 14 13–16 12–16 12–16 12–17
Democraten 66 19 12 11–14 11–14 10–15 10–15
Forum voor Democratie 2 12 11–13 11–14 10–14 10–14
Partij van de Arbeid 9 10 9–11 9–11 8–11 8–11
ChristenUnie 5 6 6–7 5–7 5–8 5–8
Partij voor de Dieren 5 5 5–7 4–7 4–7 4–7
50Plus 4 4 3–5 3–5 3–6 3–6
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 4 3–4 3–5 3–5 3–5
DENK 3 3 3–4 3–5 3–5 2–5

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.2% 100%  
24 2% 99.8%  
25 6% 98%  
26 38% 92%  
27 36% 54% Median
28 12% 18%  
29 6% 6%  
30 0.4% 0.5%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0% Last Result

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0% 100% Last Result
15 0% 100%  
16 4% 100%  
17 11% 96%  
18 25% 85%  
19 27% 60% Median
20 25% 33%  
21 8% 8%  
22 0.2% 0.3%  
23 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.4% 100%  
16 10% 99.6%  
17 18% 90%  
18 39% 71% Median
19 16% 32%  
20 16% 16% Last Result
21 0.9% 0.9%  
22 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 2% 100%  
13 6% 98%  
14 55% 92% Last Result, Median
15 22% 37%  
16 10% 15%  
17 5% 5%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 6% 100%  
13 13% 94%  
14 43% 81% Median
15 27% 38%  
16 10% 11%  
17 0.4% 0.9%  
18 0.4% 0.4%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 3% 99.9%  
11 22% 97%  
12 36% 76% Median
13 24% 39%  
14 12% 15%  
15 3% 3%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.1% 100%  
10 3% 99.9%  
11 13% 97%  
12 42% 84% Median
13 34% 43%  
14 9% 9%  
15 0.2% 0.2%  
16 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.2% 100%  
8 4% 99.8%  
9 41% 96% Last Result
10 30% 54% Median
11 24% 25%  
12 0.4% 0.4%  
13 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 9% 99.9% Last Result
6 59% 91% Median
7 29% 32%  
8 3% 3%  
9 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 6% 100%  
5 55% 94% Last Result, Median
6 29% 39%  
7 11% 11%  
8 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 13% 100%  
4 52% 87% Last Result, Median
5 33% 36%  
6 3% 3%  
7 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.1% 100%  
3 38% 99.9% Last Result
4 56% 62% Median
5 6% 6%  
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 2% 100%  
3 54% 98% Last Result, Median
4 36% 44%  
5 8% 8%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 90 78 96% 76–80 76–81 75–82 74–84
GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 80 76 56% 74–78 74–79 73–79 73–80
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 74 33% 73–78 73–78 72–78 71–78
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 74 71 0.1% 70–74 69–74 68–75 67–75
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 85 69 0% 67–72 67–72 66–72 65–74
GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 66 61 0% 59–64 59–64 58–65 58–66
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 61 0% 60–63 58–63 58–64 57–64
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 59 0% 58–62 57–62 56–63 56–64
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 59 0% 57–61 57–61 56–61 55–62
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 58 0% 55–59 55–60 54–60 54–60
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 57 0% 55–59 54–59 54–60 53–60
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 53 0% 52–55 51–55 50–57 50–57
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 53 0% 51–55 51–56 51–56 50–56
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 51 0% 49–53 48–54 48–54 47–54
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 61 49 0% 46–51 46–51 45–51 45–52
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 41 0% 39–43 39–43 38–44 37–44
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 36 0% 35–38 34–38 34–40 33–40
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 47 36 0% 35–38 34–38 34–39 34–39
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 30 0% 28–33 28–33 28–33 27–34
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 27 0% 25–28 24–28 24–29 24–29
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 24 0% 22–26 22–27 21–27 21–27

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 1.2% 100%  
75 2% 98.8%  
76 17% 96% Majority
77 15% 79%  
78 16% 64% Median
79 18% 48%  
80 23% 30%  
81 4% 7%  
82 1.3% 3%  
83 0.1% 2%  
84 2% 2%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result

GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.2% 100%  
73 4% 99.8%  
74 20% 96%  
75 21% 76% Median
76 24% 56% Majority
77 11% 31%  
78 14% 20%  
79 5% 6%  
80 0.7% 1.0% Last Result
81 0.1% 0.3%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0.9% 99.9%  
72 2% 99.0%  
73 8% 97%  
74 45% 89%  
75 11% 44% Median
76 6% 33% Majority
77 13% 27% Last Result
78 14% 14%  
79 0.3% 0.3%  
80 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.6% 100%  
68 2% 99.3%  
69 6% 97%  
70 26% 92%  
71 29% 66% Median
72 9% 37%  
73 15% 28%  
74 9% 13% Last Result
75 4% 4%  
76 0% 0.1% Majority
77 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 2% 99.9%  
66 0.9% 98%  
67 10% 97%  
68 20% 87%  
69 30% 68% Median
70 17% 38%  
71 8% 20%  
72 10% 12%  
73 0.3% 2%  
74 2% 2%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Majority
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Last Result

GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 3% 99.9%  
59 10% 97%  
60 22% 87%  
61 16% 66% Median
62 28% 50%  
63 11% 21%  
64 6% 10%  
65 2% 4%  
66 2% 2% Last Result
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.6% 100%  
58 5% 99.4%  
59 3% 94%  
60 16% 91%  
61 31% 75% Last Result, Median
62 34% 44%  
63 6% 11%  
64 4% 5%  
65 0.4% 0.4%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.3% 100%  
56 3% 99.7%  
57 3% 97%  
58 27% 94%  
59 18% 67% Median
60 24% 49%  
61 12% 25%  
62 10% 13%  
63 0.6% 3%  
64 2% 2%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100%  
55 1.5% 99.9%  
56 2% 98%  
57 15% 96%  
58 23% 82%  
59 21% 59% Median
60 10% 38%  
61 26% 28%  
62 2% 2%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.2% 100%  
54 3% 99.7%  
55 9% 97%  
56 7% 88%  
57 21% 81% Median
58 40% 60% Last Result
59 14% 19%  
60 5% 6%  
61 0.3% 0.5%  
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.5% 99.9%  
54 4% 99.4%  
55 8% 95%  
56 25% 87%  
57 31% 61% Last Result, Median
58 15% 31%  
59 11% 16%  
60 4% 5%  
61 0.1% 0.2%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.2% 100%  
50 3% 99.8%  
51 6% 97%  
52 29% 91%  
53 13% 62% Median
54 29% 49%  
55 15% 19%  
56 1.4% 4%  
57 2% 3%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.4% 100%  
50 2% 99.6%  
51 14% 98%  
52 4% 84%  
53 41% 80% Median
54 22% 39% Last Result
55 8% 17%  
56 8% 8%  
57 0.3% 0.4%  
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.2% 100%  
47 2% 99.8%  
48 7% 98%  
49 8% 91%  
50 28% 83%  
51 33% 55% Median
52 6% 22%  
53 10% 15%  
54 5% 5%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.2% 100%  
45 3% 99.8%  
46 8% 97%  
47 9% 89%  
48 19% 79%  
49 30% 60% Median
50 15% 31%  
51 15% 16%  
52 0.8% 1.2%  
53 0.3% 0.4%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 1.0% 100%  
38 2% 99.0%  
39 11% 97%  
40 22% 86%  
41 34% 65% Median
42 18% 30%  
43 9% 12%  
44 3% 3%  
45 0.2% 0.2%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.2% 100%  
33 1.0% 99.8%  
34 5% 98.8%  
35 14% 94%  
36 33% 80%  
37 30% 47% Median
38 13% 17%  
39 0.3% 4%  
40 3% 3%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.4% 100%  
34 9% 99.6%  
35 19% 90%  
36 26% 71% Median
37 25% 45%  
38 16% 20%  
39 4% 4%  
40 0.1% 0.2%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 2% 100%  
28 15% 98%  
29 16% 83%  
30 25% 68% Median
31 22% 43%  
32 9% 21%  
33 11% 12% Last Result
34 0.7% 0.7%  
35 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.2% 100%  
24 5% 99.7%  
25 12% 95%  
26 27% 82% Median
27 38% 55%  
28 13% 18%  
29 4% 5%  
30 0.3% 0.4%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 3% 100%  
22 10% 97%  
23 26% 88%  
24 28% 62% Median
25 20% 34%  
26 9% 14%  
27 5% 5%  
28 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
29 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations