Opinion Poll by Peil.nl, 26 November–2 December 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 15.3% 14.5–16.2% 14.3–16.5% 14.1–16.7% 13.7–17.1%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 12.7% 11.9–13.5% 11.7–13.7% 11.5–13.9% 11.2–14.3%
GroenLinks 9.1% 11.3% 10.6–12.1% 10.4–12.3% 10.2–12.5% 9.9–12.9%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 10.0% 9.3–10.7% 9.1–10.9% 9.0–11.1% 8.7–11.5%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 9.3% 8.7–10.1% 8.5–10.3% 8.3–10.4% 8.0–10.8%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 8.0% 7.4–8.7% 7.2–8.9% 7.1–9.0% 6.8–9.4%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 7.3% 6.8–8.0% 6.6–8.2% 6.4–8.3% 6.2–8.6%
Democraten 66 12.2% 6.7% 6.1–7.3% 6.0–7.5% 5.8–7.6% 5.6–7.9%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 5.3% 4.8–5.9% 4.7–6.1% 4.6–6.2% 4.4–6.5%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.7% 4.2–5.2% 4.1–5.3% 4.0–5.5% 3.7–5.8%
DENK 2.1% 4.7% 4.2–5.2% 4.1–5.3% 4.0–5.5% 3.7–5.8%
50Plus 3.1% 2.7% 2.3–3.1% 2.2–3.2% 2.1–3.3% 2.0–3.5%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 24 22–24 22–24 22–24 21–26
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 18 18–20 18–21 18–22 17–23
GroenLinks 14 19 17–19 16–19 16–19 15–19
Partij van de Arbeid 9 15 15 13–15 12–16 12–17
Forum voor Democratie 2 14 14 13–14 13–16 12–17
Socialistische Partij 14 13 12–13 11–13 11–13 11–14
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 12 10–12 10–12 9–12 9–13
Democraten 66 19 9 9–11 9–11 9–11 8–12
Partij voor de Dieren 5 8 7–8 7–8 7–9 7–10
ChristenUnie 5 6 6–7 6–7 6–8 5–8
DENK 3 7 7–8 6–8 6–8 6–9
50Plus 4 3 3–4 3–4 3–5 3–5
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.1% 99.9%  
21 0.8% 99.8%  
22 14% 99.0%  
23 6% 85%  
24 77% 79% Median
25 1.4% 2%  
26 0.5% 0.5%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0% Last Result

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 2% 100%  
18 70% 98% Median
19 13% 28%  
20 8% 15% Last Result
21 4% 7%  
22 3% 3%  
23 0.7% 0.7%  
24 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0% 100% Last Result
15 2% 100%  
16 4% 98%  
17 5% 94%  
18 17% 88%  
19 71% 71% Median
20 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 4% 100%  
13 1.5% 96%  
14 4% 94%  
15 86% 91% Median
16 3% 5%  
17 2% 2%  
18 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 1.3% 100%  
13 5% 98.7%  
14 88% 93% Median
15 2% 5%  
16 1.5% 3%  
17 1.1% 1.2%  
18 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.4% 100%  
11 5% 99.6%  
12 6% 94%  
13 87% 88% Median
14 1.3% 1.5% Last Result
15 0.2% 0.2%  
16 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 4% 100%  
10 10% 96%  
11 13% 86%  
12 72% 73% Median
13 0.6% 0.7%  
14 0.2% 0.2%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.6% 100%  
9 74% 99.4% Median
10 13% 25%  
11 11% 13%  
12 2% 2%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0% 100% Last Result
6 0.5% 100%  
7 19% 99.5%  
8 77% 81% Median
9 3% 4%  
10 0.5% 0.5%  
11 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.7% 100% Last Result
6 76% 99.3% Median
7 19% 23%  
8 4% 5%  
9 0.3% 0.3%  
10 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0% 100% Last Result
4 0% 100%  
5 0.1% 100%  
6 8% 99.9%  
7 79% 92% Median
8 12% 13%  
9 0.8% 1.3%  
10 0.5% 0.5%  
11 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 74% 100% Median
4 21% 26% Last Result
5 4% 4%  
6 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 86% 100% Median
3 13% 14% Last Result
4 0.3% 0.3%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – Socialistische Partij – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 80 74 0.4% 71–74 71–74 70–74 69–75
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 70 0% 68–71 68–72 68–72 65–74
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 90 70 0% 68–70 67–70 66–70 65–71
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 74 68 0% 66–68 66–69 65–69 63–71
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 85 66 0% 65–66 64–67 64–67 63–71
GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 66 61 0% 59–61 58–61 58–62 57–63
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 55 0% 53–55 52–56 51–57 51–57
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 54 0% 52–54 52–54 51–55 49–57
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus 58 53 0% 51–53 50–53 49–54 48–55
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 52 0% 49–52 49–52 47–53 47–54
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 51 0% 50–51 49–52 49–52 48–55
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 61 51 0% 47–51 46–51 46–51 46–53
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 61 48 0% 47–48 47–50 46–50 45–51
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 54 50 0% 47–50 46–50 45–50 44–51
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 45 0% 43–45 42–45 42–46 41–47
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 39 0% 37–39 36–39 36–40 35–41
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 47 36 0% 35–36 34–37 33–37 33–38
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 36 0% 33–36 32–36 32–36 31–37
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 33 33 0% 32–33 30–33 29–34 29–36
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 28 27 0% 25–27 23–27 22–27 22–28
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 21 0% 21 20–22 19–22 19–23

GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – Socialistische Partij – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.3% 99.9%  
69 1.0% 99.6%  
70 3% 98.7%  
71 8% 96%  
72 6% 88%  
73 2% 81%  
74 77% 79% Median
75 2% 2%  
76 0.4% 0.4% Majority
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 1.2% 100%  
66 0% 98.8%  
67 0.9% 98.8%  
68 10% 98%  
69 3% 88%  
70 71% 85% Median
71 8% 13%  
72 3% 5%  
73 2% 2%  
74 0.4% 0.5%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0% Majority
77 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 2% 99.9%  
66 1.2% 98%  
67 6% 97%  
68 13% 91%  
69 3% 78%  
70 75% 75% Median
71 0.2% 0.6%  
72 0.3% 0.4%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Majority
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 1.2% 100%  
64 0.5% 98.8%  
65 2% 98%  
66 9% 96%  
67 3% 87%  
68 77% 84% Median
69 4% 6%  
70 0.5% 2%  
71 2% 2%  
72 0.2% 0.3%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.4% 100%  
63 1.3% 99.6%  
64 8% 98%  
65 13% 90%  
66 72% 77% Median
67 3% 5%  
68 0.9% 2%  
69 0.1% 1.4%  
70 0.7% 1.3%  
71 0.6% 0.6%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Majority
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Last Result

GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.2% 100%  
57 2% 99.8%  
58 6% 98%  
59 4% 91%  
60 6% 87%  
61 78% 81% Median
62 3% 3%  
63 0.4% 0.7%  
64 0.4% 0.4%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 4% 100%  
52 2% 96%  
53 10% 94%  
54 3% 84%  
55 75% 81% Median
56 2% 6%  
57 3% 4%  
58 0.2% 0.5%  
59 0.1% 0.3%  
60 0.2% 0.2%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 1.2% 100%  
50 0.9% 98.8%  
51 1.2% 98%  
52 10% 97%  
53 1.4% 87%  
54 80% 85% Median
55 2% 5%  
56 1.2% 2%  
57 0.9% 1.2%  
58 0.3% 0.4%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 1.5% 100%  
49 2% 98.5%  
50 4% 96%  
51 10% 93%  
52 7% 82%  
53 71% 75% Median
54 3% 5%  
55 1.4% 2%  
56 0.1% 0.3%  
57 0.2% 0.2%  
58 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 4% 100%  
48 1.3% 96%  
49 12% 95%  
50 2% 83%  
51 6% 81%  
52 72% 75% Median
53 2% 3%  
54 0.2% 0.6%  
55 0.2% 0.4%  
56 0.2% 0.2%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0% 100%  
48 1.4% 99.9%  
49 5% 98.5%  
50 12% 94%  
51 72% 82% Median
52 7% 9%  
53 0.3% 2%  
54 0.8% 2%  
55 1.1% 1.1%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 7% 100%  
47 3% 93%  
48 11% 89%  
49 3% 78%  
50 3% 75%  
51 71% 72% Median
52 0.4% 1.3%  
53 0.9% 0.9%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 2% 99.9%  
46 2% 98%  
47 13% 96%  
48 75% 83% Median
49 2% 8%  
50 4% 6%  
51 1.4% 1.4%  
52 0% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 1.5% 100%  
45 2% 98.5%  
46 3% 96%  
47 11% 94%  
48 6% 82%  
49 4% 76%  
50 71% 72% Median
51 1.2% 2%  
52 0.3% 0.4%  
53 0% 0.1%  
54 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
55 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 2% 100%  
42 4% 98%  
43 12% 94%  
44 2% 82%  
45 75% 80% Median
46 2% 4%  
47 2% 2%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 1.3% 100%  
36 6% 98.6%  
37 11% 93%  
38 6% 82%  
39 72% 76% Median
40 2% 3%  
41 0.8% 1.0%  
42 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
43 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0% 100%  
33 5% 99.9%  
34 4% 95%  
35 5% 91%  
36 79% 86% Median
37 5% 7%  
38 1.5% 2%  
39 0.4% 0.4%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 2% 100%  
32 6% 98%  
33 11% 93%  
34 6% 82%  
35 3% 75%  
36 71% 72% Median
37 1.1% 1.2%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 5% 100%  
30 0.7% 95%  
31 4% 95%  
32 7% 90%  
33 80% 84% Last Result, Median
34 2% 4%  
35 0.5% 2%  
36 1.1% 1.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 4% 100%  
23 1.3% 96%  
24 4% 95%  
25 3% 90%  
26 14% 87%  
27 72% 73% Median
28 1.0% 1.4% Last Result
29 0.5% 0.5%  
30 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 4% 100%  
20 5% 96%  
21 83% 90% Median
22 6% 7%  
23 1.2% 1.4%  
24 0.2% 0.2%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations