Opinion Poll by Kantar Public, 7–11 December 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 19.9% 18.4–21.6% 18.0–22.1% 17.6–22.5% 16.9–23.3%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 13.3% 12.0–14.8% 11.7–15.2% 11.4–15.5% 10.8–16.3%
GroenLinks 9.1% 10.6% 9.4–11.9% 9.1–12.3% 8.9–12.7% 8.3–13.3%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 10.0% 8.9–11.3% 8.6–11.7% 8.3–12.0% 7.8–12.7%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 8.7% 7.6–9.9% 7.3–10.2% 7.1–10.5% 6.6–11.2%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 8.7% 7.6–9.9% 7.3–10.2% 7.1–10.5% 6.6–11.2%
Democraten 66 12.2% 8.0% 7.0–9.2% 6.7–9.5% 6.5–9.8% 6.0–10.4%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 6.0% 5.2–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.7–7.7% 4.3–8.2%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 6.0% 5.2–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.7–7.7% 4.3–8.2%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 3.3% 2.7–4.1% 2.5–4.4% 2.4–4.6% 2.1–5.0%
50Plus 3.1% 2.0% 1.6–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.5%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.0% 1.6–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.5%
DENK 2.1% 1.4% 1.0–2.0% 0.9–2.1% 0.8–2.3% 0.7–2.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 33 29–33 29–33 29–33 27–34
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 22 21–22 20–23 19–23 18–23
GroenLinks 14 16 14–16 14–16 14–17 13–20
Socialistische Partij 14 15 15–16 15–17 15–17 13–19
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 10 10–12 10–15 10–15 10–16
Forum voor Democratie 2 13 12–13 12–15 12–15 11–15
Democraten 66 19 13 12–13 12–13 11–13 10–15
Partij van de Arbeid 9 8 8–9 8–10 8–10 6–10
ChristenUnie 5 9 7–9 7–10 7–11 7–12
Partij voor de Dieren 5 4 4–5 3–5 3–5 3–6
50Plus 4 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–5
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 3 2–4 2–5 2–5 2–5
DENK 3 2 2 1–2 1–2 1–3

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0% 100%  
26 0.1% 99.9%  
27 0.5% 99.8%  
28 1.3% 99.3%  
29 10% 98%  
30 0.9% 88%  
31 3% 88%  
32 9% 85%  
33 74% 76% Last Result, Median
34 2% 2%  
35 0.2% 0.3%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.1% 99.9%  
17 0.3% 99.8%  
18 0.6% 99.6%  
19 3% 99.0%  
20 2% 96% Last Result
21 8% 95%  
22 78% 87% Median
23 8% 9%  
24 0.1% 0.5%  
25 0.4% 0.4%  
26 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.2% 100%  
13 0.5% 99.8%  
14 13% 99.3% Last Result
15 1.3% 87%  
16 82% 85% Median
17 2% 3%  
18 0.6% 1.4%  
19 0.3% 0.8%  
20 0.1% 0.5%  
21 0.4% 0.4%  
22 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 0.3% 99.9%  
13 0.6% 99.5%  
14 1.1% 98.9% Last Result
15 75% 98% Median
16 14% 23%  
17 7% 9%  
18 0% 2%  
19 2% 2%  
20 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 75% 100% Median
11 10% 25%  
12 6% 14%  
13 1.3% 9%  
14 2% 7%  
15 4% 5%  
16 0.7% 0.8%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0.3% 100%  
11 1.4% 99.7%  
12 11% 98%  
13 78% 87% Median
14 4% 9%  
15 5% 5%  
16 0.1% 0.2%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 2% 99.8%  
11 2% 98%  
12 17% 96%  
13 78% 79% Median
14 0.4% 1.1%  
15 0.6% 0.6%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 1.2% 100%  
7 0.2% 98.8%  
8 85% 98.6% Median
9 6% 14% Last Result
10 8% 8%  
11 0.2% 0.4%  
12 0.2% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0% 100% Last Result
6 0.2% 100%  
7 10% 99.8%  
8 5% 90%  
9 79% 85% Median
10 3% 6%  
11 2% 3%  
12 0.5% 0.6%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.4% 100%  
3 6% 99.6%  
4 79% 94% Median
5 12% 14% Last Result
6 2% 2%  
7 0.3% 0.3%  
8 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.2% 100%  
2 85% 99.8% Median
3 14% 14%  
4 0.4% 0.9% Last Result
5 0.5% 0.6%  
6 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.3% 100%  
2 14% 99.7%  
3 75% 86% Last Result, Median
4 2% 11%  
5 9% 9%  
6 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 8% 100%  
2 91% 92% Median
3 1.2% 1.2% Last Result
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 81 99.4% 80–82 79–83 76–83 75–84
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 90 81 99.8% 78–81 76–81 76–82 76–84
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 74 78 96% 78 77–79 74–79 71–80
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie – Partij van de Arbeid 85 73 3% 70–73 70–75 70–78 67–79
GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie – Partij van de Arbeid 80 71 6% 71–75 68–76 68–78 68–79
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 65 0% 62–65 62–65 62–68 59–69
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 65 0% 64–66 62–66 62–66 59–68
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 61 0% 61–63 60–63 59–64 57–67
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 58 0% 58 58–59 56–62 55–63
GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie – Partij van de Arbeid 66 56 0% 55–58 52–62 52–62 52–64
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 59 0% 59–60 58–60 56–61 55–64
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 56 0% 55–56 55–57 53–59 52–60
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 56 0% 55–56 53–57 53–58 51–59
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 51 0% 51 50–54 49–55 48–57
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 61 54 0% 51–54 50–54 49–55 46–57
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 43 0% 43 41–44 41–45 40–48
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 41 0% 39–41 38–41 38–42 34–44
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 47 31 0% 31–33 31–37 30–38 30–38
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie – Partij van de Arbeid 33 27 0% 27–30 26–33 26–33 26–36
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 23 0% 23–24 23–27 22–28 21–28
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 18 0% 18–21 18–24 18–25 18–26

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.4% 100%  
74 0% 99.6%  
75 0.1% 99.5%  
76 2% 99.4% Majority
77 0.4% 97% Last Result
78 0.4% 97%  
79 5% 97%  
80 3% 91%  
81 78% 89% Median
82 0.4% 10%  
83 9% 10%  
84 0.6% 0.8%  
85 0.2% 0.3%  
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.1% 100%  
75 0.1% 99.8%  
76 8% 99.8% Majority
77 0.5% 91%  
78 8% 91%  
79 0.3% 83%  
80 2% 82%  
81 77% 81% Median
82 2% 4%  
83 0.9% 2%  
84 0.5% 0.9%  
85 0.2% 0.4%  
86 0% 0.2%  
87 0.1% 0.2%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 0.5% 99.9%  
72 0% 99.5%  
73 0.5% 99.4%  
74 2% 99.0% Last Result
75 0.7% 97%  
76 0.4% 96% Majority
77 6% 96%  
78 84% 90% Median
79 5% 6%  
80 0.6% 0.9%  
81 0.2% 0.3%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0.1% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 1.4% 100%  
68 0% 98.5%  
69 0.2% 98.5%  
70 8% 98%  
71 5% 90%  
72 3% 85%  
73 74% 82% Median
74 0.5% 8%  
75 4% 8%  
76 0.2% 3% Majority
77 0.4% 3%  
78 2% 3%  
79 0.7% 0.7%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Last Result

GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0% 99.9%  
68 9% 99.9%  
69 0.2% 91%  
70 1.1% 91%  
71 73% 90% Median
72 0.3% 17%  
73 2% 17%  
74 4% 15%  
75 5% 12%  
76 1.5% 6% Majority
77 0.1% 5%  
78 4% 5%  
79 0.5% 0.5%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.5% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.5%  
61 1.3% 99.4%  
62 14% 98%  
63 0.6% 85%  
64 3% 84%  
65 77% 81% Median
66 0.1% 4%  
67 0.5% 4%  
68 2% 3%  
69 0.7% 1.0%  
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 99.9%  
59 0.5% 99.9%  
60 0.5% 99.4%  
61 0.4% 99.0%  
62 7% 98.6%  
63 0.4% 92%  
64 3% 91%  
65 74% 88% Median
66 14% 15%  
67 0.3% 0.9%  
68 0.4% 0.6%  
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0% 100%  
57 0.5% 99.9%  
58 2% 99.5%  
59 0.9% 98%  
60 6% 97%  
61 78% 91% Last Result, Median
62 0.4% 13%  
63 9% 13%  
64 2% 4%  
65 1.1% 2%  
66 0.7% 1.2%  
67 0.3% 0.5%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.9% 99.9%  
56 2% 99.0%  
57 1.4% 97%  
58 87% 96% Last Result, Median
59 4% 9%  
60 1.0% 5%  
61 0.4% 4%  
62 2% 3%  
63 0.5% 0.9%  
64 0.2% 0.4%  
65 0.2% 0.2%  
66 0% 0%  

GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 8% 100%  
53 0% 92%  
54 0.1% 92%  
55 3% 91%  
56 74% 88% Median
57 0.2% 14%  
58 7% 14%  
59 0.7% 7%  
60 0.4% 7%  
61 1.0% 6%  
62 5% 5%  
63 0.2% 0.7%  
64 0.5% 0.5%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100%  
54 0.4% 99.9%  
55 2% 99.5%  
56 0.4% 98%  
57 0.5% 97% Last Result
58 6% 97%  
59 78% 91% Median
60 8% 13%  
61 2% 5%  
62 0.8% 2%  
63 1.1% 2%  
64 0.3% 0.6%  
65 0.1% 0.2%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.4% 99.8%  
53 2% 99.4%  
54 0.8% 97% Last Result
55 9% 96%  
56 79% 87% Median
57 4% 9%  
58 1.3% 4%  
59 2% 3%  
60 0.6% 1.1%  
61 0.4% 0.5%  
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100%  
50 0% 99.9%  
51 0.8% 99.9%  
52 0.3% 99.1%  
53 7% 98.8%  
54 2% 92%  
55 10% 90%  
56 73% 81% Median
57 5% 8%  
58 2% 3%  
59 0.7% 1.1%  
60 0.2% 0.4%  
61 0.1% 0.2%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0% 100%  
48 2% 99.9%  
49 2% 98%  
50 5% 96%  
51 82% 91% Median
52 0.5% 9%  
53 0.9% 9%  
54 5% 8%  
55 2% 3%  
56 0.5% 1.2%  
57 0.3% 0.6%  
58 0.4% 0.4%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 2% 100%  
47 0.1% 98%  
48 0.5% 98%  
49 0.5% 98%  
50 5% 97%  
51 4% 92%  
52 13% 89%  
53 0.4% 76%  
54 73% 76% Median
55 0.6% 3%  
56 0.6% 2%  
57 2% 2%  
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 0.8% 99.9%  
41 7% 99.0%  
42 2% 92%  
43 82% 91% Median
44 4% 9%  
45 3% 4%  
46 0.7% 2%  
47 0.4% 1.0%  
48 0.3% 0.5%  
49 0.3% 0.3%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 1.1% 100%  
35 0.6% 98.9%  
36 0.1% 98%  
37 0.5% 98%  
38 5% 98%  
39 6% 93%  
40 9% 86%  
41 74% 77% Median
42 0.5% 3% Last Result
43 0.4% 2%  
44 2% 2%  
45 0.2% 0.2%  
46 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 3% 99.8%  
31 82% 97% Median
32 2% 16%  
33 6% 14%  
34 2% 8%  
35 0.5% 6%  
36 0.5% 6%  
37 0.5% 5%  
38 5% 5%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.3% 99.9%  
26 8% 99.6%  
27 74% 91% Median
28 0.2% 18%  
29 2% 17%  
30 6% 15%  
31 2% 9%  
32 1.0% 7%  
33 5% 6% Last Result
34 0.5% 1.3%  
35 0.3% 0.8%  
36 0.1% 0.5%  
37 0.4% 0.4%  
38 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.8% 99.8%  
22 3% 99.0%  
23 81% 96% Median
24 7% 16%  
25 0.8% 8%  
26 2% 7%  
27 0.7% 5%  
28 4% 5%  
29 0.1% 0.2%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 75% 99.9% Median
19 9% 25%  
20 2% 17%  
21 7% 14%  
22 0.8% 7%  
23 1.1% 6%  
24 0.2% 5%  
25 4% 5%  
26 0.9% 0.9%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations