Opinion Poll by Kantar Public, 12 January 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 18.6% 17.0–20.3% 16.6–20.7% 16.2–21.2% 15.5–22.0%
GroenLinks 9.1% 12.6% 11.3–14.1% 11.0–14.5% 10.7–14.9% 10.1–15.6%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 11.3% 10.0–12.7% 9.7–13.1% 9.4–13.4% 8.9–14.1%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 10.6% 9.4–12.0% 9.1–12.4% 8.8–12.8% 8.3–13.4%
Democraten 66 12.2% 9.9% 8.8–11.2% 8.4–11.6% 8.2–12.0% 7.7–12.6%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 7.9% 6.9–9.2% 6.6–9.5% 6.4–9.8% 5.9–10.4%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 7.9% 6.9–9.2% 6.6–9.5% 6.4–9.8% 5.9–10.4%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 6.7% 5.7–7.8% 5.5–8.2% 5.3–8.4% 4.8–9.0%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.6% 3.8–5.6% 3.6–5.9% 3.4–6.1% 3.1–6.6%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 3.3% 2.7–4.2% 2.5–4.5% 2.4–4.7% 2.1–5.1%
50Plus 3.1% 2.6% 2.1–3.4% 1.9–3.6% 1.8–3.8% 1.5–4.2%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.5%
DENK 2.1% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 26 26–31 26–31 26–31 25–33
GroenLinks 14 17 17–21 16–21 16–21 16–22
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 16 16–17 16–19 16–19 14–19
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 16 11–16 11–16 11–17 11–19
Democraten 66 19 17 14–17 12–17 12–17 12–19
Socialistische Partij 14 14 12–16 11–16 10–16 9–16
Forum voor Democratie 2 10 10–12 10–14 10–14 9–15
Partij van de Arbeid 9 10 9–10 9–10 9–11 8–12
ChristenUnie 5 8 7–8 6–8 6–8 5–10
Partij voor de Dieren 5 5 5–6 4–6 4–6 3–7
50Plus 4 5 3–5 3–5 3–5 2–6
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 3 2–3 2–4 2–4 2–5
DENK 3 3 2–3 2–5 2–5 1–6

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.3% 99.9%  
25 0.4% 99.6%  
26 59% 99.2% Median
27 0.7% 40%  
28 4% 40%  
29 11% 36%  
30 1.3% 25%  
31 22% 24%  
32 0.8% 1.4%  
33 0.2% 0.6% Last Result
34 0.1% 0.4%  
35 0.3% 0.4%  
36 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.2% 100% Last Result
15 0.1% 99.8%  
16 5% 99.7%  
17 68% 94% Median
18 7% 27%  
19 3% 20%  
20 1.1% 17%  
21 14% 16%  
22 0.8% 1.2%  
23 0.4% 0.4%  
24 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 1.2% 99.9%  
15 1.2% 98.7%  
16 83% 98% Median
17 7% 15%  
18 2% 7%  
19 5% 6%  
20 0.1% 0.3% Last Result
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 12% 100%  
12 0.1% 88%  
13 0.7% 88%  
14 7% 87%  
15 7% 80%  
16 70% 73% Median
17 0.9% 3%  
18 0.3% 2%  
19 2% 2% Last Result
20 0.2% 0.3%  
21 0% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 6% 99.9%  
13 3% 94%  
14 12% 91%  
15 17% 79%  
16 3% 62%  
17 57% 58% Median
18 0.8% 1.3%  
19 0.4% 0.5% Last Result
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.3% 100%  
9 0.5% 99.7%  
10 2% 99.1%  
11 5% 97%  
12 14% 92%  
13 5% 78%  
14 58% 73% Last Result, Median
15 5% 15%  
16 10% 10%  
17 0% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.8% 100%  
10 65% 99.1% Median
11 12% 34%  
12 13% 23%  
13 1.3% 9%  
14 7% 8%  
15 0.8% 0.9%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.2% 100%  
8 1.1% 99.7%  
9 29% 98.7% Last Result
10 66% 70% Median
11 1.1% 3%  
12 2% 2%  
13 0.2% 0.4%  
14 0% 0.2%  
15 0% 0.2%  
16 0.2% 0.2%  
17 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.2% 100%  
5 1.5% 99.8% Last Result
6 4% 98%  
7 33% 94%  
8 60% 61% Median
9 0.5% 1.1%  
10 0.5% 0.6%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 1.0% 100%  
4 5% 99.0%  
5 65% 94% Last Result, Median
6 28% 29%  
7 1.2% 1.3%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 2% 100%  
3 18% 98%  
4 14% 79% Last Result
5 65% 66% Median
6 0.4% 0.5%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 21% 99.9%  
3 71% 79% Last Result, Median
4 7% 8%  
5 0.7% 0.8%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.7% 100%  
2 14% 99.3%  
3 77% 85% Last Result, Median
4 1.2% 9%  
5 5% 7%  
6 2% 2%  
7 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 90 84 100% 83–85 79–85 79–87 79–90
GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 80 82 77% 75–82 74–82 74–82 73–84
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 85 77 75% 73–77 73–77 73–78 71–80
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 71 24% 71–76 71–77 71–77 71–82
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 74 68 1.1% 68–74 68–75 68–75 68–79
GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 66 68 0% 63–68 61–68 60–71 60–72
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 67 0% 64–68 63–68 63–68 61–71
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 60 0% 60–63 60–65 60–65 58–68
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 58 0% 58–63 58–63 58–63 57–66
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 57 0% 57–61 57–63 56–63 55–65
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 59 0% 57–61 56–61 56–61 54–64
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 55 0% 55–60 55–60 55–61 55–65
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 52 0% 52–58 52–58 52–58 52–61
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 52 0% 51–56 51–56 51–56 49–59
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 61 53 0% 53–55 51–55 50–56 49–60
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 42 0% 42–47 42–47 42–47 40–50
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 47 43 0% 35–43 35–43 35–43 35–45
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 36 0% 36–40 36–40 36–40 34–44
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 34 0% 27–34 27–34 27–36 27–38
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 33 0% 26–33 26–33 26–33 26–34
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 26 0% 20–26 20–26 20–29 20–30

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0.1% 100%  
79 5% 99.9%  
80 0.4% 95%  
81 0.3% 94%  
82 2% 94%  
83 5% 92%  
84 59% 87% Median
85 23% 28%  
86 0.7% 5%  
87 2% 4%  
88 0.4% 2%  
89 0.8% 2%  
90 0.6% 0.8% Last Result
91 0% 0.2%  
92 0.1% 0.2%  
93 0% 0%  

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 0.4% 99.9%  
73 0.3% 99.5%  
74 5% 99.3%  
75 17% 95%  
76 1.4% 77% Majority
77 0.8% 76%  
78 2% 75%  
79 13% 74%  
80 1.0% 61% Last Result
81 0.8% 60%  
82 57% 59% Median
83 0.3% 2%  
84 1.5% 2%  
85 0% 0.1%  
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100%  
69 0.2% 99.9%  
70 0.1% 99.8%  
71 0.5% 99.7%  
72 0.9% 99.2%  
73 18% 98%  
74 4% 80%  
75 1.2% 76%  
76 4% 75% Majority
77 68% 71% Median
78 0.6% 3%  
79 0.9% 2%  
80 0.9% 1.2%  
81 0% 0.2%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100%  
70 0.2% 99.9%  
71 57% 99.8% Median
72 2% 43%  
73 12% 41%  
74 2% 28%  
75 2% 26%  
76 16% 24% Majority
77 6% 8% Last Result
78 0.8% 2%  
79 0.3% 1.3%  
80 0.1% 1.0%  
81 0.1% 0.8%  
82 0.7% 0.7%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.2% 99.9%  
68 57% 99.8% Median
69 0.5% 43%  
70 14% 43%  
71 0.8% 28%  
72 8% 27%  
73 1.3% 19%  
74 11% 18% Last Result
75 6% 7%  
76 0.2% 1.1% Majority
77 0.1% 1.0%  
78 0.1% 0.9%  
79 0.6% 0.7%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 5% 99.9%  
61 0.3% 95%  
62 0.7% 95%  
63 27% 94%  
64 1.0% 67%  
65 1.1% 66%  
66 4% 65% Last Result
67 0.4% 61%  
68 57% 61% Median
69 0.7% 4%  
70 0.3% 3%  
71 2% 3%  
72 0.3% 0.5%  
73 0.1% 0.2%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0% Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 99.9%  
60 0.3% 99.9%  
61 0.3% 99.6%  
62 0.4% 99.3%  
63 6% 98.9%  
64 13% 93%  
65 5% 80%  
66 4% 75%  
67 58% 70% Median
68 11% 13%  
69 0.9% 2%  
70 0.2% 0.8%  
71 0.5% 0.6%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.2% 100%  
57 0.1% 99.8%  
58 0.2% 99.7%  
59 0.8% 99.5%  
60 62% 98.7% Median
61 14% 36% Last Result
62 1.2% 22%  
63 13% 21%  
64 0.6% 8%  
65 6% 7%  
66 0.3% 1.2%  
67 0.2% 0.9%  
68 0.6% 0.7%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.3% 99.8%  
57 0.6% 99.5%  
58 70% 98.9% Median
59 1.2% 29%  
60 4% 28%  
61 5% 24%  
62 6% 19%  
63 11% 13%  
64 0.4% 1.3%  
65 0.2% 0.9%  
66 0.4% 0.7%  
67 0.1% 0.3%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.2% 99.8%  
55 0.1% 99.6%  
56 4% 99.5%  
57 57% 95% Median
58 15% 38% Last Result
59 4% 23%  
60 0.7% 19%  
61 12% 19%  
62 0.8% 7%  
63 5% 6%  
64 0.3% 0.8%  
65 0.5% 0.6%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.3% 99.8%  
55 0.8% 99.4%  
56 6% 98.6%  
57 13% 93%  
58 6% 80%  
59 58% 74% Median
60 3% 15%  
61 11% 13%  
62 0.7% 2%  
63 0.5% 1.2%  
64 0.2% 0.7%  
65 0% 0.5%  
66 0.4% 0.4%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0% 100%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.2% 99.9%  
55 57% 99.7% Median
56 3% 43%  
57 18% 40% Last Result
58 1.0% 22%  
59 1.2% 21%  
60 16% 20%  
61 2% 3%  
62 0.3% 1.4%  
63 0.2% 1.1%  
64 0.3% 0.8%  
65 0.2% 0.5%  
66 0.4% 0.4%  
67 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100%  
50 0% 99.9%  
51 0.2% 99.9%  
52 57% 99.7% Median
53 5% 43%  
54 15% 38% Last Result
55 2% 23%  
56 1.4% 21%  
57 3% 20%  
58 15% 17%  
59 0.8% 2%  
60 0.3% 1.0%  
61 0.3% 0.8%  
62 0.1% 0.5%  
63 0.4% 0.4%  
64 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.5% 99.8%  
50 0.4% 99.2%  
51 12% 98.9%  
52 62% 87% Median
53 1.4% 25%  
54 8% 23%  
55 2% 15%  
56 12% 13%  
57 0.2% 1.5%  
58 0.3% 1.2%  
59 0.6% 1.0%  
60 0.1% 0.4%  
61 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
62 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.1% 99.9%  
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 0.1% 99.8%  
49 2% 99.7%  
50 0.9% 98%  
51 6% 97%  
52 0.8% 91%  
53 62% 90% Median
54 14% 29%  
55 13% 15%  
56 0.7% 3%  
57 0.7% 2%  
58 0.6% 1.2%  
59 0% 0.6%  
60 0.4% 0.6%  
61 0% 0.2% Last Result
62 0.2% 0.2%  
63 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.1% 99.8%  
40 0.5% 99.8%  
41 0.3% 99.2%  
42 70% 98.9% Median
43 6% 29%  
44 9% 23%  
45 2% 15%  
46 0.8% 12%  
47 11% 11%  
48 0.1% 0.9%  
49 0.2% 0.8%  
50 0.5% 0.6%  
51 0% 0.1%  
52 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 13% 99.8%  
36 0.2% 87%  
37 6% 87%  
38 5% 81%  
39 12% 77%  
40 1.1% 65%  
41 0.8% 63%  
42 4% 63%  
43 57% 59% Median
44 0.7% 1.4%  
45 0.3% 0.7%  
46 0.3% 0.4%  
47 0% 0.1% Last Result
48 0% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0% 100%  
33 0.3% 99.9%  
34 0.4% 99.6%  
35 0.4% 99.3%  
36 58% 98.9% Median
37 0.7% 40%  
38 8% 40%  
39 5% 32%  
40 24% 26%  
41 0.7% 2%  
42 0.5% 1.3% Last Result
43 0.1% 0.9%  
44 0.5% 0.8%  
45 0.2% 0.2%  
46 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.2% 100%  
27 12% 99.8%  
28 0.5% 88%  
29 0.7% 87%  
30 5% 87%  
31 3% 82%  
32 17% 79%  
33 1.2% 61% Last Result
34 57% 60% Median
35 0.5% 3%  
36 0.4% 3%  
37 2% 2%  
38 0.4% 0.7%  
39 0.2% 0.3%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0% 100%  
25 0.1% 99.9%  
26 13% 99.8%  
27 5% 87%  
28 2% 82%  
29 5% 80%  
30 11% 75%  
31 1.4% 64%  
32 4% 63%  
33 57% 58% Median
34 0.5% 0.7%  
35 0.1% 0.3%  
36 0.1% 0.2%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 12% 100%  
21 0.4% 88%  
22 0.5% 88%  
23 6% 87%  
24 3% 82%  
25 15% 79%  
26 60% 64% Median
27 0.7% 4%  
28 0.4% 3% Last Result
29 2% 3%  
30 0.1% 0.6%  
31 0.2% 0.5%  
32 0.2% 0.3%  
33 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations