Opinion Poll by I&O Research, 18–22 January 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 16.3% 15.5–17.1% 15.3–17.3% 15.2–17.5% 14.8–17.9%
GroenLinks 9.1% 12.0% 11.4–12.7% 11.2–12.9% 11.0–13.1% 10.7–13.5%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 11.8% 11.2–12.5% 11.0–12.7% 10.8–12.9% 10.5–13.2%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 10.4% 9.8–11.1% 9.6–11.3% 9.5–11.4% 9.2–11.8%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 9.6% 9.0–10.3% 8.8–10.5% 8.7–10.6% 8.4–10.9%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 8.6% 8.0–9.2% 7.9–9.4% 7.7–9.5% 7.5–9.8%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 7.5% 7.0–8.1% 6.8–8.2% 6.7–8.4% 6.4–8.7%
Democraten 66 12.2% 7.2% 6.7–7.8% 6.5–7.9% 6.4–8.1% 6.2–8.4%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.8% 4.4–5.3% 4.3–5.4% 4.1–5.5% 3.9–5.8%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 4.2% 3.8–4.7% 3.7–4.8% 3.6–4.9% 3.4–5.1%
50Plus 3.1% 3.1% 2.8–3.5% 2.7–3.6% 2.6–3.7% 2.4–3.9%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.7% 2.4–3.1% 2.3–3.2% 2.2–3.3% 2.1–3.5%
DENK 2.1% 1.4% 1.2–1.7% 1.1–1.8% 1.1–1.8% 1.0–2.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 25 24–27 24–27 24–27 23–27
GroenLinks 14 18 18–19 17–19 17–20 16–21
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 18 17–19 17–19 17–20 16–20
Forum voor Democratie 2 16 15–16 15–16 15–17 14–18
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 16 14–16 14–16 13–16 13–16
Socialistische Partij 14 12 12–15 11–15 11–15 11–15
Partij van de Arbeid 9 10 10–12 10–13 10–13 10–13
Democraten 66 19 12 10–12 10–12 10–12 9–12
ChristenUnie 5 7 7 6–7 6–7 5–8
Partij voor de Dieren 5 6 5–7 5–7 5–7 5–7
50Plus 4 5 4–5 4–5 4–5 3–6
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 4 3–4 3–5 3–5 3–5
DENK 3 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 1.0% 99.9%  
24 13% 98.9%  
25 64% 85% Median
26 10% 21%  
27 12% 12%  
28 0.3% 0.3%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0% Last Result

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0% 100% Last Result
15 0% 100%  
16 0.7% 100%  
17 8% 99.3%  
18 76% 91% Median
19 13% 16%  
20 3% 3%  
21 0.8% 0.8%  
22 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 1.0% 99.9%  
17 10% 98.9%  
18 73% 89% Median
19 14% 16%  
20 2% 3% Last Result
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0.2% 100%  
14 2% 99.8%  
15 15% 98%  
16 79% 83% Median
17 3% 4%  
18 0.8% 0.9%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 3% 99.9%  
14 21% 97%  
15 23% 75%  
16 52% 52% Median
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 5% 99.9%  
12 57% 95% Median
13 9% 38%  
14 17% 28% Last Result
15 11% 11%  
16 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100% Last Result
10 55% 99.9% Median
11 18% 45%  
12 19% 27%  
13 8% 8%  
14 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 1.1% 100%  
10 27% 98.9%  
11 20% 72%  
12 52% 52% Median
13 0.2% 0.2%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 2% 100% Last Result
6 4% 98%  
7 91% 93% Median
8 2% 2%  
9 0.4% 0.4%  
10 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 20% 100% Last Result
6 69% 80% Median
7 10% 11%  
8 0.5% 0.5%  
9 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.7% 100%  
4 37% 99.3% Last Result
5 61% 62% Median
6 0.6% 0.6%  
7 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 21% 100% Last Result
4 71% 79% Median
5 8% 8%  
6 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 55% 100% Median
2 44% 45%  
3 0.4% 0.4% Last Result
4 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 79 94% 77–79 75–79 75–79 74–80
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 90 78 71% 75–78 74–78 74–78 73–79
GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Socialistische Partij – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 80 75 17% 74–77 74–77 73–77 73–78
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 74 75 10% 73–75 72–76 71–76 71–76
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 85 70 0% 68–70 67–71 66–71 66–72
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 66 0% 63–66 62–66 61–66 60–66
GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 66 63 0% 60–63 60–63 60–64 60–65
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus 58 62 0% 59–62 58–62 57–62 57–62
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 61 0% 59–61 58–61 56–61 55–61
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 60 0% 56–60 56–60 55–60 55–61
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 59 0% 57–59 57–60 55–60 54–60
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 54 57 0% 55–57 54–57 53–57 52–58
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 51 0% 50–52 49–53 49–53 49–53
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 53 0% 50–53 49–53 48–53 48–53
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 61 47 0% 46–48 46–50 44–50 44–50
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 41 0% 39–41 38–41 37–41 37–42
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 35 0% 35–38 35–39 34–39 34–39
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 47 38 0% 35–38 35–38 35–38 35–39
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 33 0% 32–34 32–34 32–34 31–35
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 28 0% 24–28 24–28 24–28 23–28
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 26 0% 25–27 25–27 25–27 24–28

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.2% 100%  
74 0.6% 99.8%  
75 5% 99.2%  
76 4% 94% Majority
77 17% 90% Last Result
78 10% 74%  
79 62% 63% Median
80 0.3% 0.7%  
81 0.4% 0.4%  
82 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.4% 100%  
73 0.7% 99.6%  
74 8% 98.9%  
75 20% 91%  
76 16% 71% Majority
77 2% 55%  
78 51% 53% Median
79 1.1% 1.5%  
80 0.2% 0.3%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result

GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Socialistische Partij – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.2% 100%  
72 0.2% 99.8%  
73 3% 99.6%  
74 21% 96%  
75 58% 76% Median
76 3% 17% Majority
77 14% 14%  
78 0.5% 0.7%  
79 0.2% 0.2%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.3% 99.9%  
71 3% 99.6%  
72 5% 97%  
73 17% 92%  
74 11% 74% Last Result
75 53% 63% Median
76 9% 10% Majority
77 0.4% 0.5%  
78 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.2% 100%  
66 3% 99.8%  
67 4% 97%  
68 10% 93%  
69 23% 83%  
70 53% 60% Median
71 6% 7%  
72 0.3% 0.5%  
73 0.2% 0.2%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Majority
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 2% 100%  
61 0.5% 98% Last Result
62 3% 97%  
63 19% 94%  
64 15% 75%  
65 6% 59%  
66 53% 53% Median
67 0.1% 0.2%  
68 0% 0%  

GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.2% 99.8%  
60 14% 99.7%  
61 3% 85%  
62 21% 82%  
63 59% 61% Median
64 1.3% 3%  
65 1.1% 1.3%  
66 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.2% 100%  
57 2% 99.7%  
58 3% 97% Last Result
59 18% 94%  
60 10% 77%  
61 11% 67%  
62 55% 55% Median
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 2% 100%  
56 0.4% 98%  
57 0.9% 97% Last Result
58 4% 97%  
59 18% 92%  
60 18% 74%  
61 55% 56% Median
62 0.2% 0.4%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.2% 100%  
55 5% 99.8%  
56 7% 95%  
57 17% 88%  
58 18% 71%  
59 0.8% 53%  
60 52% 52% Median
61 0.4% 0.6%  
62 0.2% 0.2%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100%  
54 0.5% 99.9%  
55 2% 99.4%  
56 2% 97%  
57 10% 95%  
58 23% 85%  
59 53% 62% Median
60 9% 10%  
61 0.4% 0.5%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 2% 100%  
53 0.6% 98%  
54 4% 97% Last Result
55 20% 93%  
56 8% 73%  
57 63% 65% Median
58 2% 2%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0% 100%  
48 0.4% 99.9%  
49 5% 99.6%  
50 9% 94%  
51 53% 85% Median
52 22% 32%  
53 10% 10%  
54 0.3% 0.4%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.2% 100%  
48 3% 99.8%  
49 7% 97%  
50 16% 90%  
51 21% 74%  
52 0.9% 53%  
53 51% 52% Median
54 0.4% 0.4%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 3% 99.9%  
45 1.0% 97%  
46 7% 96%  
47 65% 89% Median
48 15% 24%  
49 3% 9%  
50 6% 6%  
51 0.1% 0.2%  
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 2% 99.9%  
38 4% 97%  
39 10% 94%  
40 18% 84%  
41 64% 66% Median
42 1.2% 1.3%  
43 0% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.2% 100%  
34 3% 99.8%  
35 57% 97% Median
36 6% 40%  
37 12% 33%  
38 16% 22%  
39 5% 6%  
40 0.3% 0.3%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.2% 99.9%  
35 14% 99.6%  
36 5% 85%  
37 21% 81%  
38 57% 60% Median
39 2% 2%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.1% 99.9%  
31 0.7% 99.7%  
32 21% 99.1%  
33 58% 78% Last Result, Median
34 19% 20%  
35 0.8% 1.1%  
36 0.1% 0.3%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 1.0% 100%  
24 14% 99.0%  
25 24% 85%  
26 8% 61%  
27 2% 53%  
28 51% 51% Median
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.2% 100%  
24 0.9% 99.8%  
25 17% 99.0%  
26 60% 82% Median
27 19% 21%  
28 2% 2% Last Result
29 0.2% 0.2%  
30 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations