Opinion Poll by Ipsos for EenVandaag, 25–28 January 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions

Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval | 
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie | 21.3% | 17.5% | 16.0–19.1% | 15.6–19.5% | 15.2–20.0% | 14.6–20.7% | 
| Partij voor de Vrijheid | 13.1% | 13.1% | 11.8–14.5% | 11.4–15.0% | 11.1–15.3% | 10.5–16.0% | 
| GroenLinks | 9.1% | 11.4% | 10.2–12.8% | 9.8–13.2% | 9.6–13.5% | 9.0–14.2% | 
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 12.4% | 9.1% | 8.0–10.3% | 7.7–10.7% | 7.5–11.0% | 7.0–11.7% | 
| Democraten 66 | 12.2% | 8.5% | 7.5–9.7% | 7.1–10.1% | 6.9–10.4% | 6.4–11.0% | 
| Socialistische Partij | 9.1% | 8.2% | 7.2–9.4% | 6.9–9.8% | 6.6–10.1% | 6.2–10.7% | 
| Forum voor Democratie | 1.8% | 7.8% | 6.8–9.0% | 6.5–9.3% | 6.3–9.6% | 5.8–10.2% | 
| Partij van de Arbeid | 5.7% | 5.7% | 4.8–6.8% | 4.6–7.0% | 4.4–7.3% | 4.0–7.8% | 
| Partij voor de Dieren | 3.2% | 4.9% | 4.1–5.9% | 3.9–6.2% | 3.7–6.4% | 3.4–6.9% | 
| ChristenUnie | 3.4% | 4.7% | 3.9–5.7% | 3.7–5.9% | 3.5–6.2% | 3.2–6.7% | 
| 50Plus | 3.1% | 3.6% | 2.9–4.5% | 2.8–4.7% | 2.6–4.9% | 2.3–5.4% | 
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 2.1% | 2.4% | 1.9–3.1% | 1.7–3.4% | 1.6–3.6% | 1.4–3.9% | 
| DENK | 2.1% | 2.2% | 1.7–2.9% | 1.6–3.1% | 1.4–3.3% | 1.2–3.7% | 
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats


Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval | 
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie | 33 | 26 | 25–28 | 25–28 | 24–30 | 23–31 | 
| Partij voor de Vrijheid | 20 | 19 | 17–22 | 17–23 | 17–25 | 17–25 | 
| GroenLinks | 14 | 19 | 15–20 | 15–21 | 14–21 | 13–22 | 
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 19 | 14 | 13–15 | 12–15 | 11–16 | 10–17 | 
| Democraten 66 | 19 | 12 | 10–14 | 10–14 | 10–15 | 10–16 | 
| Socialistische Partij | 14 | 11 | 10–13 | 9–15 | 9–15 | 9–15 | 
| Forum voor Democratie | 2 | 12 | 10–13 | 10–13 | 10–14 | 9–15 | 
| Partij van de Arbeid | 9 | 8 | 7–10 | 7–10 | 6–11 | 6–11 | 
| Partij voor de Dieren | 5 | 8 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 6–10 | 5–10 | 
| ChristenUnie | 5 | 6 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 5–8 | 4–9 | 
| 50Plus | 4 | 6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 4–7 | 3–8 | 
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 3 | 4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–5 | 2–6 | 
| DENK | 3 | 4 | 2–4 | 2–5 | 2–5 | 2–6 | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 23 | 1.1% | 99.7% | |
| 24 | 3% | 98.6% | |
| 25 | 28% | 95% | |
| 26 | 32% | 67% | Median | 
| 27 | 10% | 35% | |
| 28 | 21% | 25% | |
| 29 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 30 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 31 | 2% | 2% | |
| 32 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | Last Result | 
Partij voor de Vrijheid
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 17 | 23% | 99.6% | |
| 18 | 3% | 77% | |
| 19 | 24% | 73% | Median | 
| 20 | 6% | 49% | Last Result | 
| 21 | 7% | 44% | |
| 22 | 32% | 37% | |
| 23 | 2% | 5% | |
| 24 | 0.7% | 4% | |
| 25 | 3% | 3% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | 
GroenLinks
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 14 | 4% | 99.4% | Last Result | 
| 15 | 6% | 95% | |
| 16 | 2% | 89% | |
| 17 | 10% | 88% | |
| 18 | 2% | 78% | |
| 19 | 49% | 76% | Median | 
| 20 | 21% | 27% | |
| 21 | 5% | 6% | |
| 22 | 1.3% | 1.4% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | 
Christen-Democratisch Appèl
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 2% | 100% | |
| 11 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 12 | 4% | 97% | |
| 13 | 17% | 93% | |
| 14 | 59% | 76% | Median | 
| 15 | 14% | 17% | |
| 16 | 2% | 3% | |
| 17 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | Last Result | 
Democraten 66
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 10 | 35% | 99.9% | |
| 11 | 11% | 65% | |
| 12 | 9% | 54% | Median | 
| 13 | 8% | 45% | |
| 14 | 34% | 37% | |
| 15 | 2% | 4% | |
| 16 | 1.1% | 1.2% | |
| 17 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | Last Result | 
Socialistische Partij
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 9 | 9% | 99.9% | |
| 10 | 29% | 91% | |
| 11 | 46% | 62% | Median | 
| 12 | 3% | 15% | |
| 13 | 4% | 12% | |
| 14 | 3% | 9% | Last Result | 
| 15 | 6% | 6% | |
| 16 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | 
Forum voor Democratie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0% | 100% | Last Result | 
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 9 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 10 | 11% | 98% | |
| 11 | 35% | 87% | |
| 12 | 28% | 52% | Median | 
| 13 | 20% | 24% | |
| 14 | 2% | 4% | |
| 15 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 16 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | 
Partij van de Arbeid
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 6 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 7 | 21% | 97% | |
| 8 | 30% | 76% | Median | 
| 9 | 29% | 46% | Last Result | 
| 10 | 14% | 17% | |
| 11 | 3% | 3% | |
| 12 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | 
Partij voor de Dieren
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 5 | 2% | 99.9% | Last Result | 
| 6 | 10% | 98% | |
| 7 | 32% | 89% | |
| 8 | 30% | 57% | Median | 
| 9 | 23% | 27% | |
| 10 | 3% | 4% | |
| 11 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | 
ChristenUnie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 5 | 2% | 99.4% | Last Result | 
| 6 | 73% | 97% | Median | 
| 7 | 11% | 24% | |
| 8 | 11% | 13% | |
| 9 | 2% | 2% | |
| 10 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | 
50Plus
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 4 | 3% | 99.1% | Last Result | 
| 5 | 39% | 96% | |
| 6 | 39% | 56% | Median | 
| 7 | 17% | 18% | |
| 8 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% | 
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 14% | 100% | |
| 3 | 9% | 86% | Last Result | 
| 4 | 74% | 77% | Median | 
| 5 | 3% | 3% | |
| 6 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | 
DENK
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 2 | 19% | 99.7% | |
| 3 | 20% | 80% | Last Result | 
| 4 | 55% | 60% | Median | 
| 5 | 5% | 5% | |
| 6 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | 
Coalitions

Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval | 
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie | 90 | 77 | 64% | 75–79 | 74–80 | 73–82 | 70–83 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 77 | 76 | 60% | 73–78 | 71–79 | 71–79 | 69–82 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie | 74 | 72 | 5% | 69–74 | 69–75 | 68–77 | 66–78 | 
| GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie | 80 | 70 | 3% | 68–73 | 68–74 | 68–76 | 65–77 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie | 85 | 67 | 0.1% | 62–71 | 62–72 | 62–72 | 62–74 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 72 | 61 | 0% | 57–63 | 57–63 | 57–67 | 55–67 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 61 | 61 | 0% | 58–64 | 58–65 | 57–65 | 55–66 | 
| GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie | 66 | 59 | 0% | 57–62 | 57–64 | 55–64 | 53–66 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie | 76 | 58 | 0% | 55–63 | 55–64 | 55–64 | 55–66 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus | 58 | 58 | 0% | 55–60 | 54–61 | 53–61 | 52–63 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 57 | 56 | 0% | 53–57 | 52–58 | 51–59 | 49–61 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 | 71 | 52 | 0% | 49–55 | 49–57 | 49–57 | 48–59 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie | 54 | 52 | 0% | 50–53 | 50–54 | 48–56 | 46–58 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid | 61 | 49 | 0% | 46–51 | 46–52 | 45–52 | 44–53 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid | 61 | 47 | 0% | 42–49 | 42–51 | 42–52 | 42–53 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 52 | 40 | 0% | 38–42 | 38–43 | 37–44 | 36–46 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid | 42 | 35 | 0% | 32–36 | 32–37 | 32–39 | 30–40 | 
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid | 47 | 34 | 0% | 31–37 | 31–38 | 31–38 | 30–41 | 
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie | 33 | 29 | 0% | 27–31 | 26–31 | 26–32 | 25–33 | 
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 | 38 | 26 | 0% | 24–29 | 24–29 | 23–29 | 22–31 | 
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid | 28 | 23 | 0% | 21–24 | 20–24 | 19–25 | 18–25 | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 70 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0.3% | 99.1% | |
| 72 | 0.7% | 98.9% | |
| 73 | 2% | 98% | |
| 74 | 5% | 96% | |
| 75 | 27% | 91% | |
| 76 | 2% | 64% | Majority | 
| 77 | 17% | 62% | Median | 
| 78 | 4% | 45% | |
| 79 | 31% | 41% | |
| 80 | 6% | 10% | |
| 81 | 1.3% | 4% | |
| 82 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 83 | 2% | 2% | |
| 84 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | Last Result | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 68 | 0% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 70 | 1.5% | 99.3% | |
| 71 | 5% | 98% | |
| 72 | 2% | 92% | |
| 73 | 23% | 91% | |
| 74 | 2% | 68% | |
| 75 | 7% | 66% | Median | 
| 76 | 30% | 60% | Majority | 
| 77 | 5% | 30% | Last Result | 
| 78 | 19% | 25% | |
| 79 | 3% | 6% | |
| 80 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 81 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 82 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 83 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 65 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 66 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 67 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 68 | 2% | 98% | |
| 69 | 26% | 96% | |
| 70 | 2% | 70% | |
| 71 | 3% | 67% | Median | 
| 72 | 26% | 64% | |
| 73 | 13% | 38% | |
| 74 | 20% | 25% | Last Result | 
| 75 | 0.7% | 6% | |
| 76 | 1.5% | 5% | Majority | 
| 77 | 3% | 3% | |
| 78 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | 
GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 63 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 65 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 66 | 0.3% | 98.9% | |
| 67 | 0.9% | 98.6% | |
| 68 | 32% | 98% | |
| 69 | 8% | 66% | |
| 70 | 16% | 57% | Median | 
| 71 | 2% | 41% | |
| 72 | 27% | 39% | |
| 73 | 5% | 12% | |
| 74 | 3% | 7% | |
| 75 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 76 | 1.1% | 3% | Majority | 
| 77 | 1.1% | 1.5% | |
| 78 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | Last Result | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 61 | 0% | 100% | |
| 62 | 18% | 99.9% | |
| 63 | 0.3% | 82% | |
| 64 | 0.7% | 82% | |
| 65 | 8% | 81% | |
| 66 | 22% | 73% | Median | 
| 67 | 3% | 51% | |
| 68 | 6% | 48% | |
| 69 | 27% | 42% | |
| 70 | 4% | 15% | |
| 71 | 2% | 11% | |
| 72 | 7% | 9% | |
| 73 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 74 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 75 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Majority | 
| 77 | 0% | 0% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | Last Result | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 55 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 56 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 57 | 29% | 98% | |
| 58 | 2% | 69% | |
| 59 | 3% | 67% | Median | 
| 60 | 2% | 65% | |
| 61 | 44% | 63% | |
| 62 | 7% | 19% | |
| 63 | 7% | 12% | |
| 64 | 1.1% | 5% | |
| 65 | 0.5% | 4% | |
| 66 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 67 | 3% | 3% | |
| 68 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | Last Result | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 55 | 0.9% | 99.6% | |
| 56 | 0.8% | 98.7% | |
| 57 | 2% | 98% | |
| 58 | 7% | 96% | |
| 59 | 13% | 89% | |
| 60 | 10% | 77% | |
| 61 | 22% | 67% | Last Result | 
| 62 | 23% | 44% | Median | 
| 63 | 2% | 22% | |
| 64 | 14% | 19% | |
| 65 | 5% | 5% | |
| 66 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 67 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 69 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | 
GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | 0% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 53 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 54 | 1.3% | 99.2% | |
| 55 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 56 | 2% | 97% | |
| 57 | 35% | 95% | |
| 58 | 5% | 60% | |
| 59 | 10% | 55% | Median | 
| 60 | 13% | 45% | |
| 61 | 1.1% | 31% | |
| 62 | 23% | 30% | |
| 63 | 0.4% | 7% | |
| 64 | 5% | 7% | |
| 65 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 66 | 0.7% | 0.8% | Last Result | 
| 67 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 55 | 19% | 99.8% | |
| 56 | 10% | 81% | |
| 57 | 6% | 71% | |
| 58 | 18% | 65% | Median | 
| 59 | 4% | 47% | |
| 60 | 24% | 43% | |
| 61 | 8% | 19% | |
| 62 | 1.3% | 11% | |
| 63 | 4% | 10% | |
| 64 | 5% | 6% | |
| 65 | 0.7% | 1.3% | |
| 66 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 67 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | Last Result, Majority | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 52 | 0.9% | 99.5% | |
| 53 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 54 | 2% | 97% | |
| 55 | 11% | 95% | |
| 56 | 11% | 84% | |
| 57 | 23% | 74% | |
| 58 | 29% | 51% | Last Result, Median | 
| 59 | 2% | 22% | |
| 60 | 13% | 20% | |
| 61 | 6% | 7% | |
| 62 | 0.5% | 1.2% | |
| 63 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 65 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 48 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0.9% | 99.9% | |
| 50 | 0.2% | 99.0% | |
| 51 | 1.3% | 98.8% | |
| 52 | 6% | 97% | |
| 53 | 3% | 92% | |
| 54 | 20% | 89% | |
| 55 | 3% | 69% | |
| 56 | 44% | 66% | Median | 
| 57 | 14% | 22% | Last Result | 
| 58 | 5% | 8% | |
| 59 | 2% | 3% | |
| 60 | 0.4% | 1.1% | |
| 61 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 63 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 46 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 48 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 49 | 19% | 99.0% | |
| 50 | 10% | 80% | |
| 51 | 11% | 70% | |
| 52 | 15% | 59% | Median | 
| 53 | 7% | 44% | |
| 54 | 26% | 37% | |
| 55 | 2% | 11% | |
| 56 | 4% | 10% | |
| 57 | 3% | 5% | |
| 58 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 59 | 2% | 2% | |
| 60 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | Last Result | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0.9% | 99.9% | |
| 47 | 0.2% | 99.0% | |
| 48 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 49 | 2% | 97% | |
| 50 | 20% | 96% | |
| 51 | 4% | 75% | |
| 52 | 46% | 72% | Median | 
| 53 | 17% | 25% | |
| 54 | 5% | 9% | Last Result | 
| 55 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 56 | 2% | 3% | |
| 57 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 58 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 59 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 42 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 44 | 0.9% | 99.5% | |
| 45 | 3% | 98.7% | |
| 46 | 24% | 96% | |
| 47 | 2% | 72% | |
| 48 | 3% | 70% | Median | 
| 49 | 36% | 67% | |
| 50 | 18% | 31% | |
| 51 | 7% | 13% | |
| 52 | 4% | 6% | |
| 53 | 2% | 2% | |
| 54 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | Last Result | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 41 | 0% | 100% | |
| 42 | 18% | 99.9% | |
| 43 | 0.4% | 82% | |
| 44 | 1.3% | 82% | |
| 45 | 1.4% | 80% | |
| 46 | 24% | 79% | Median | 
| 47 | 14% | 55% | |
| 48 | 4% | 41% | |
| 49 | 28% | 37% | |
| 50 | 3% | 9% | |
| 51 | 3% | 6% | |
| 52 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 53 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 54 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | Last Result | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 36 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 37 | 2% | 98% | |
| 38 | 6% | 95% | |
| 39 | 33% | 89% | |
| 40 | 25% | 56% | Median | 
| 41 | 2% | 31% | |
| 42 | 20% | 29% | |
| 43 | 7% | 10% | |
| 44 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 45 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 46 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 47 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | Last Result | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0.3% | 99.2% | |
| 32 | 21% | 98.9% | |
| 33 | 6% | 78% | |
| 34 | 2% | 72% | Median | 
| 35 | 32% | 70% | |
| 36 | 31% | 38% | |
| 37 | 3% | 7% | |
| 38 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 39 | 2% | 3% | |
| 40 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 41 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 42 | 0.2% | 0.2% | Last Result | 
| 43 | 0% | 0% | 
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 30 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 31 | 18% | 99.3% | |
| 32 | 14% | 81% | |
| 33 | 9% | 67% | |
| 34 | 15% | 58% | Median | 
| 35 | 2% | 43% | |
| 36 | 9% | 42% | |
| 37 | 26% | 32% | |
| 38 | 4% | 6% | |
| 39 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 40 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 41 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | Last Result | 
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 25 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 26 | 3% | 98% | |
| 27 | 25% | 95% | |
| 28 | 16% | 70% | Median | 
| 29 | 31% | 54% | |
| 30 | 5% | 23% | |
| 31 | 15% | 18% | |
| 32 | 2% | 3% | |
| 33 | 2% | 2% | Last Result | 
| 34 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | 
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.8% | 99.8% | |
| 23 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 24 | 40% | 97% | |
| 25 | 7% | 57% | |
| 26 | 12% | 51% | Median | 
| 27 | 5% | 39% | |
| 28 | 24% | 34% | |
| 29 | 8% | 10% | |
| 30 | 2% | 2% | |
| 31 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 32 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | Last Result | 
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 18 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 19 | 2% | 98% | |
| 20 | 3% | 96% | |
| 21 | 25% | 94% | |
| 22 | 16% | 69% | Median | 
| 23 | 39% | 53% | |
| 24 | 11% | 14% | |
| 25 | 2% | 3% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 27 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | Last Result | 
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos
 - Commissioner(s): EenVandaag
 - Fieldwork period: 25–28 January 2019
 
Calculations
- Sample size: 1002
 - Simulations done: 1,048,576
 - Error estimate: 3.03%