Opinion Poll by Peil.nl, 28 January–3 February 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 14.7% 13.9–15.5% 13.6–15.8% 13.4–16.0% 13.1–16.4%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 12.0% 11.3–12.8% 11.1–13.0% 10.9–13.2% 10.5–13.6%
GroenLinks 9.1% 11.3% 10.6–12.1% 10.4–12.3% 10.2–12.5% 9.9–12.9%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 11.3% 10.6–12.1% 10.4–12.3% 10.2–12.5% 9.9–12.9%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 10.0% 9.3–10.7% 9.1–10.9% 9.0–11.1% 8.7–11.5%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 8.7% 8.0–9.4% 7.8–9.6% 7.7–9.7% 7.4–10.1%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 6.7% 6.1–7.3% 6.0–7.5% 5.8–7.6% 5.6–7.9%
Democraten 66 12.2% 6.7% 6.1–7.3% 6.0–7.5% 5.8–7.6% 5.6–7.9%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 5.3% 4.8–5.9% 4.7–6.1% 4.6–6.2% 4.4–6.5%
DENK 2.1% 4.7% 4.2–5.2% 4.1–5.3% 4.0–5.5% 3.7–5.8%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.0% 3.6–4.5% 3.4–4.6% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.0%
50Plus 3.1% 2.7% 2.3–3.1% 2.2–3.2% 2.1–3.3% 2.0–3.5%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 23 21–24 20–25 20–25 19–25
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 18 17–19 17–20 16–21 16–22
GroenLinks 14 16 16–19 16–19 16–20 15–20
Forum voor Democratie 2 17 16–18 16–18 15–18 15–19
Partij van de Arbeid 9 14 14–16 14–17 14–17 12–17
Socialistische Partij 14 14 12–15 12–15 11–15 11–15
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 10 9–12 9–12 9–12 8–12
Democraten 66 19 9 8–11 8–11 8–12 8–12
Partij voor de Dieren 5 8 7–9 6–9 6–9 6–10
DENK 3 7 6–8 6–8 6–8 6–9
ChristenUnie 5 5 5–7 5–7 4–7 4–7
50Plus 4 4 3–5 3–5 2–5 2–5
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 1–4

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 2% 100%  
20 5% 98%  
21 4% 93%  
22 20% 89%  
23 54% 69% Median
24 8% 15%  
25 7% 8%  
26 0.4% 0.4%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0% Last Result

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 3% 99.9%  
17 29% 97%  
18 50% 69% Median
19 10% 19%  
20 6% 9% Last Result
21 0.6% 3%  
22 2% 2%  
23 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100% Last Result
15 1.2% 99.9%  
16 57% 98.7% Median
17 22% 42%  
18 5% 20%  
19 13% 16%  
20 3% 3%  
21 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0.1% 100%  
15 3% 99.9%  
16 13% 97%  
17 47% 84% Median
18 35% 37%  
19 2% 2%  
20 0.2% 0.3%  
21 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0.6% 100%  
13 1.3% 99.4%  
14 59% 98% Median
15 22% 39%  
16 12% 18%  
17 5% 5%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 4% 99.9%  
12 13% 96%  
13 24% 82%  
14 16% 58% Last Result, Median
15 42% 42%  
16 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.1% 100%  
8 2% 99.9%  
9 16% 98%  
10 49% 81% Median
11 15% 32%  
12 17% 17%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 11% 100%  
9 55% 89% Median
10 15% 34%  
11 15% 19%  
12 4% 4%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0% 100% Last Result
6 6% 100%  
7 21% 94%  
8 32% 74% Median
9 41% 42%  
10 0.8% 0.8%  
11 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0% 100% Last Result
4 0% 100%  
5 0.4% 100%  
6 18% 99.6%  
7 70% 82% Median
8 10% 11%  
9 0.8% 0.8%  
10 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 3% 100%  
5 62% 97% Last Result, Median
6 16% 36%  
7 19% 19%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 4% 100%  
3 22% 96%  
4 61% 75% Last Result, Median
5 14% 14%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 1.4% 100%  
2 23% 98.6%  
3 73% 76% Last Result, Median
4 2% 2%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – Socialistische Partij – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 80 70 0.1% 69–73 69–74 69–74 68–75
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 71 0% 69–72 69–72 68–74 67–74
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 74 68 0% 67–69 66–70 65–71 64–71
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 90 64 0% 63–68 63–68 62–68 62–69
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 85 63 0% 61–65 61–66 61–66 59–66
GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 66 57 0% 54–60 54–61 54–62 54–62
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 57 0% 53–59 53–59 52–60 51–60
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus 58 54 0% 51–56 50–57 50–57 48–57
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 53 0% 50–55 49–55 49–56 48–56
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 51 0% 50–53 49–53 49–53 47–53
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 54 50 0% 48–52 47–52 47–53 45–53
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 48 0% 47–50 46–51 46–51 45–51
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 61 47 0% 45–49 45–50 44–51 43–51
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 61 46 0% 45–49 45–50 44–51 44–51
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 42 0% 42–44 40–45 40–46 39–46
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 37 0% 37–39 34–40 34–40 33–41
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 47 33 0% 33–36 33–37 32–38 31–39
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 33 0% 31–34 30–35 30–35 29–35
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 33 30 0% 29–32 28–33 28–34 27–35
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 28 24 0% 24–27 23–28 23–28 21–28
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 19 0% 19–21 18–22 18–22 17–23

GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – Socialistische Partij – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.2% 100%  
68 1.0% 99.8% Median
69 45% 98.8%  
70 8% 54%  
71 22% 46%  
72 11% 24%  
73 6% 13%  
74 4% 7%  
75 2% 2%  
76 0.1% 0.1% Majority
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.3% 100%  
66 0% 99.7%  
67 0.7% 99.7%  
68 3% 99.0%  
69 10% 96%  
70 9% 85%  
71 44% 76% Median
72 28% 32%  
73 1.3% 4%  
74 2% 3%  
75 0.3% 0.3%  
76 0% 0% Majority
77 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.3% 100%  
63 0% 99.7%  
64 0.6% 99.7%  
65 3% 99.0%  
66 5% 96%  
67 11% 91%  
68 40% 80% Median
69 30% 40%  
70 7% 10%  
71 3% 3%  
72 0.4% 0.4%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.3% 99.9%  
62 3% 99.6%  
63 41% 97% Median
64 15% 56%  
65 6% 42%  
66 8% 36%  
67 9% 28%  
68 18% 19%  
69 1.1% 1.2%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Majority
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.6% 99.9%  
60 0.3% 99.3%  
61 38% 99.1% Median
62 7% 61%  
63 34% 54%  
64 3% 20%  
65 8% 17%  
66 9% 9%  
67 0.2% 0.3%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Majority
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Last Result

GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 35% 99.9% Median
55 4% 65%  
56 5% 61%  
57 21% 56%  
58 9% 35%  
59 13% 26%  
60 7% 13%  
61 2% 6%  
62 4% 4%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.6% 100%  
52 3% 99.4%  
53 9% 96%  
54 3% 87%  
55 5% 84%  
56 4% 79%  
57 38% 75% Median
58 16% 37%  
59 18% 21%  
60 3% 3%  
61 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
62 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 2% 100%  
49 0.1% 98%  
50 5% 98%  
51 7% 93%  
52 6% 86%  
53 3% 81%  
54 39% 77% Median
55 14% 38%  
56 16% 24%  
57 8% 9%  
58 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
59 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.9% 100%  
49 7% 99.0%  
50 3% 92%  
51 7% 89%  
52 5% 82%  
53 47% 77% Median
54 8% 31%  
55 20% 23%  
56 3% 3%  
57 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
58 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.3% 100%  
47 0.8% 99.6%  
48 0.4% 98.8%  
49 7% 98%  
50 13% 91%  
51 59% 79% Median
52 7% 19%  
53 11% 12%  
54 0.2% 0.4%  
55 0.1% 0.2%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 2% 100%  
46 0.1% 98%  
47 5% 98%  
48 9% 93%  
49 5% 84%  
50 42% 79% Median
51 8% 37%  
52 26% 29%  
53 3% 3%  
54 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
55 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.2% 99.9%  
45 1.0% 99.8%  
46 6% 98.8%  
47 40% 93% Median
48 19% 53%  
49 20% 34%  
50 8% 14%  
51 6% 6%  
52 0.2% 0.3%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.5% 100%  
44 4% 99.5%  
45 5% 95%  
46 3% 90%  
47 40% 87% Median
48 19% 47%  
49 21% 29%  
50 4% 8%  
51 4% 4%  
52 0% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 3% 99.8%  
45 10% 97%  
46 52% 87% Median
47 7% 35%  
48 10% 28%  
49 10% 18%  
50 4% 9%  
51 4% 4%  
52 0.3% 0.3%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.2% 99.9%  
39 0.6% 99.7%  
40 5% 99.1%  
41 3% 94%  
42 54% 91% Median
43 20% 36%  
44 12% 17%  
45 1.1% 5%  
46 4% 4%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 2% 100%  
34 4% 98%  
35 0.4% 94%  
36 2% 93%  
37 62% 91% Median
38 10% 29%  
39 13% 20%  
40 6% 7%  
41 0.1% 0.5%  
42 0.4% 0.4% Last Result
43 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.6% 99.9%  
32 3% 99.4%  
33 47% 97% Median
34 6% 50%  
35 10% 44%  
36 29% 34%  
37 3% 5%  
38 1.1% 3%  
39 1.5% 2%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 2% 100%  
30 6% 98%  
31 6% 93%  
32 11% 87%  
33 38% 76% Median
34 27% 37%  
35 10% 10%  
36 0% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 2% 99.9%  
28 4% 98%  
29 39% 94% Median
30 10% 56%  
31 12% 46%  
32 28% 34%  
33 0.9% 6% Last Result
34 3% 5%  
35 2% 2%  
36 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 1.1% 100%  
22 0.6% 98.9%  
23 7% 98%  
24 41% 91% Median
25 23% 50%  
26 9% 27%  
27 12% 17%  
28 5% 5% Last Result
29 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.8% 100%  
18 5% 99.2%  
19 54% 94% Median
20 10% 40%  
21 22% 31%  
22 9% 9%  
23 0.5% 0.5%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations