Opinion Poll by Peil.nl, 4–10 February 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 15.3% 14.5–16.2% 14.3–16.5% 14.1–16.7% 13.7–17.1%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 12.0% 11.3–12.8% 11.1–13.0% 10.9–13.2% 10.5–13.6%
GroenLinks 9.1% 11.3% 10.6–12.1% 10.4–12.3% 10.2–12.5% 9.9–12.9%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 11.3% 10.6–12.1% 10.4–12.3% 10.2–12.5% 9.9–12.9%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 9.3% 8.7–10.1% 8.5–10.3% 8.3–10.4% 8.0–10.8%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 8.0% 7.4–8.7% 7.2–8.9% 7.1–9.0% 6.8–9.4%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 6.7% 6.1–7.3% 6.0–7.5% 5.8–7.6% 5.6–7.9%
Democraten 66 12.2% 6.7% 6.1–7.3% 6.0–7.5% 5.8–7.6% 5.6–7.9%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.7% 4.2–5.2% 4.1–5.3% 4.0–5.5% 3.7–5.8%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 4.7% 4.2–5.2% 4.1–5.3% 4.0–5.5% 3.7–5.8%
DENK 2.1% 4.7% 4.2–5.2% 4.1–5.3% 4.0–5.5% 3.7–5.8%
50Plus 3.1% 3.3% 2.9–3.8% 2.8–3.9% 2.7–4.0% 2.6–4.3%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 24 22–25 22–26 21–26 20–26
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 18 16–20 16–21 16–21 16–21
GroenLinks 14 17 16–19 16–20 16–20 16–20
Forum voor Democratie 2 17 17–18 16–19 15–19 14–19
Partij van de Arbeid 9 14 12–16 12–16 12–16 12–16
Socialistische Partij 14 12 11–13 10–15 10–15 9–15
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 9 8–11 8–11 8–12 8–12
Democraten 66 19 10 9–11 8–11 8–12 8–12
ChristenUnie 5 6 6–7 6–7 6–8 5–9
Partij voor de Dieren 5 7 6–7 6–7 6–8 5–8
DENK 3 7 6–8 6–9 6–9 5–9
50Plus 4 5 4–6 4–6 4–6 4–6
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 2 2–3 2–4 2–4 2–4

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.6% 100%  
21 4% 99.3%  
22 14% 95%  
23 20% 81%  
24 37% 62% Median
25 18% 25%  
26 7% 7%  
27 0.2% 0.2%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0% Last Result

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 19% 100%  
17 24% 81%  
18 12% 57% Median
19 6% 46%  
20 34% 39% Last Result
21 5% 5%  
22 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0% 100% Last Result
15 0.3% 100%  
16 19% 99.7%  
17 36% 80% Median
18 11% 44%  
19 26% 33%  
20 6% 7%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0.6% 100%  
15 4% 99.4%  
16 2% 95%  
17 50% 93% Median
18 36% 43%  
19 6% 6%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 0% 100%  
11 0.1% 100%  
12 12% 99.9%  
13 20% 88%  
14 43% 68% Median
15 13% 25%  
16 12% 12%  
17 0.3% 0.3%  
18 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.8% 100%  
10 6% 99.2%  
11 36% 93%  
12 17% 57% Median
13 34% 40%  
14 1.1% 7% Last Result
15 6% 6%  
16 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 19% 100%  
9 44% 81% Median
10 18% 37%  
11 16% 19%  
12 3% 3%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 8% 100%  
9 13% 92%  
10 46% 79% Median
11 29% 33%  
12 4% 4%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.8% 100% Last Result
6 54% 99.2% Median
7 42% 45%  
8 2% 3%  
9 0.9% 0.9%  
10 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.6% 100% Last Result
6 43% 99.4%  
7 53% 57% Median
8 3% 4%  
9 0.4% 0.4%  
10 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0% 100% Last Result
4 0% 100%  
5 0.7% 100%  
6 33% 99.3%  
7 36% 66% Median
8 22% 30%  
9 8% 8%  
10 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.3% 100%  
4 24% 99.7% Last Result
5 60% 76% Median
6 16% 16%  
7 0.3% 0.3%  
8 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 52% 100% Median
3 40% 48% Last Result
4 8% 8%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 71 5% 69–74 69–75 68–76 66–76
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 74 69 0% 67–71 67–72 65–74 64–74
GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – Socialistische Partij – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 80 70 0% 66–72 66–72 66–72 65–73
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 90 67 0% 66–69 65–70 64–71 64–71
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 85 63 0% 62–66 61–66 60–66 60–67
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 57 0% 56–60 56–62 56–62 53–62
GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 66 57 0% 55–61 53–61 53–61 53–62
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus 58 55 0% 54–58 53–58 53–58 51–58
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 53 0% 51–55 51–57 51–57 49–57
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 52 0% 49–54 49–55 47–56 46–56
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 54 51 0% 49–53 48–53 48–53 47–53
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 50 0% 47–52 47–52 45–52 45–53
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 61 47 0% 46–49 45–50 45–50 43–50
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 61 48 0% 45–50 45–50 45–50 44–50
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 44 0% 41–45 41–45 39–46 39–46
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 38 0% 36–39 35–39 35–40 34–40
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 47 33 0% 32–35 30–36 30–37 30–37
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 33 0% 31–35 31–36 31–36 29–36
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 33 30 0% 28–32 28–33 28–34 28–35
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 28 23 0% 22–25 21–26 21–27 21–28
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 20 0% 18–21 18–21 17–21 17–22

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.6% 100%  
67 0% 99.4%  
68 3% 99.4%  
69 24% 96%  
70 10% 71% Median
71 12% 61%  
72 22% 49%  
73 11% 27%  
74 11% 17%  
75 1.1% 6%  
76 5% 5% Majority
77 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.6% 100%  
65 3% 99.4%  
66 0.5% 96%  
67 33% 95%  
68 7% 62% Median
69 28% 55%  
70 7% 27%  
71 11% 20%  
72 5% 9%  
73 0.2% 5%  
74 5% 5% Last Result
75 0% 0%  

GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – Socialistische Partij – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.8% 100%  
66 11% 99.1%  
67 9% 88%  
68 20% 79% Median
69 3% 59%  
70 8% 56%  
71 29% 49%  
72 19% 20%  
73 1.1% 1.4%  
74 0.3% 0.3%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Majority
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 4% 99.9%  
65 4% 96%  
66 20% 92% Median
67 37% 72%  
68 9% 35%  
69 20% 25%  
70 1.4% 5%  
71 4% 4%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Majority
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 4% 100%  
61 0.8% 96%  
62 26% 95%  
63 32% 69% Median
64 5% 37%  
65 8% 32%  
66 22% 25%  
67 2% 2%  
68 0.2% 0.3%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Majority
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.7% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.3%  
55 0.7% 99.2%  
56 16% 98.5%  
57 33% 83% Median
58 11% 49%  
59 25% 38%  
60 4% 13%  
61 2% 8% Last Result
62 6% 6%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 6% 100%  
54 0.3% 94%  
55 14% 94%  
56 1.3% 80% Median
57 29% 79%  
58 23% 50%  
59 11% 26%  
60 3% 15%  
61 10% 12%  
62 1.3% 1.4%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.6% 99.9%  
52 0.4% 99.3%  
53 7% 98.9%  
54 34% 92%  
55 17% 58% Median
56 4% 41%  
57 26% 37%  
58 11% 11% Last Result
59 0.2% 0.3%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.7% 100%  
50 0.4% 99.3%  
51 13% 98.9%  
52 28% 86% Median
53 30% 58%  
54 11% 28%  
55 9% 17%  
56 2% 8%  
57 6% 6% Last Result
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.6% 100%  
47 3% 99.4%  
48 0.1% 96%  
49 11% 96%  
50 23% 85%  
51 10% 62% Median
52 29% 52%  
53 10% 22%  
54 3% 12%  
55 4% 9%  
56 5% 5%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 2% 99.9%  
48 4% 98%  
49 33% 94%  
50 11% 61% Median
51 25% 50%  
52 10% 26%  
53 16% 16%  
54 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 3% 100%  
46 0.8% 97%  
47 6% 96%  
48 25% 89%  
49 8% 65% Median
50 16% 56%  
51 21% 41%  
52 18% 19%  
53 1.4% 2%  
54 0.1% 0.2%  
55 0% 0.1%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.7% 100%  
44 0.8% 99.3%  
45 6% 98%  
46 39% 93%  
47 18% 54% Median
48 21% 36%  
49 9% 15%  
50 5% 6%  
51 0.2% 0.4%  
52 0.1% 0.2%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.8% 99.9%  
45 11% 99.2%  
46 12% 88%  
47 11% 77%  
48 44% 66% Median
49 5% 22%  
50 17% 17%  
51 0.1% 0.2%  
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 4% 100%  
40 0.9% 96%  
41 11% 95%  
42 21% 84%  
43 10% 63% Median
44 32% 53%  
45 16% 20%  
46 4% 4%  
47 0.1% 0.3%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.7% 100%  
35 7% 99.3%  
36 6% 93%  
37 25% 86%  
38 42% 61% Median
39 17% 19%  
40 3% 3%  
41 0.2% 0.3%  
42 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
43 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 6% 100%  
31 0.4% 94%  
32 28% 93%  
33 17% 65% Median
34 23% 48%  
35 15% 25%  
36 6% 10%  
37 4% 4%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.6% 100%  
30 0.8% 99.4%  
31 13% 98.6%  
32 24% 86%  
33 21% 62% Median
34 23% 41%  
35 12% 17%  
36 5% 5%  
37 0.2% 0.2%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.4% 99.9%  
28 34% 99.6%  
29 8% 66% Median
30 29% 58%  
31 14% 29%  
32 7% 15%  
33 4% 8% Last Result
34 2% 4%  
35 2% 2%  
36 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.2% 99.9%  
21 6% 99.8%  
22 34% 94%  
23 21% 60% Median
24 15% 39%  
25 15% 25%  
26 7% 10%  
27 2% 3%  
28 2% 2% Last Result
29 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 4% 100%  
18 27% 96%  
19 13% 69% Median
20 34% 57%  
21 22% 23%  
22 0.8% 1.0%  
23 0.2% 0.2%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations