Opinion Poll by Kantar Public, 12 February 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 18.7% 17.1–20.4% 16.7–20.9% 16.3–21.3% 15.6–22.1%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 12.0% 10.7–13.4% 10.3–13.8% 10.0–14.2% 9.5–14.9%
GroenLinks 9.1% 11.3% 10.1–12.8% 9.8–13.2% 9.5–13.5% 8.9–14.2%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 9.3% 8.2–10.7% 7.9–11.0% 7.7–11.4% 7.1–12.0%
Democraten 66 12.2% 9.3% 8.2–10.7% 7.9–11.0% 7.7–11.4% 7.1–12.0%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 9.3% 8.2–10.7% 7.9–11.0% 7.7–11.4% 7.1–12.0%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 8.7% 7.6–10.0% 7.3–10.4% 7.1–10.7% 6.6–11.3%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 6.0% 5.1–7.1% 4.8–7.4% 4.6–7.7% 4.3–8.2%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 5.4% 4.5–6.4% 4.3–6.7% 4.1–7.0% 3.7–7.5%
50Plus 3.1% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.4% 2.6–5.9%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 2.6% 2.1–3.4% 1.9–3.6% 1.8–3.9% 1.5–4.3%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.5%
DENK 2.1% 1.4% 1.0–2.0% 0.9–2.2% 0.8–2.3% 0.7–2.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 31 26–31 26–31 24–31 23–32
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 16 16–21 16–21 16–22 15–22
GroenLinks 14 19 17–19 15–19 15–19 13–21
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 13 13–16 12–16 12–17 11–17
Democraten 66 19 14 14–15 13–15 13–16 12–16
Forum voor Democratie 2 14 11–16 11–16 11–16 11–17
Socialistische Partij 14 11 11–13 11–15 10–15 10–17
Partij van de Arbeid 9 8 7–9 7–10 7–11 6–11
ChristenUnie 5 10 8–10 7–10 7–10 6–12
50Plus 4 6 5–6 5–7 4–7 4–9
Partij voor de Dieren 5 5 3–5 3–5 2–6 2–6
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 2 2–3 2–4 2–4 1–5
DENK 3 1 1–2 1–3 1–3 1–4

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 2% 100%  
24 0.5% 98%  
25 2% 97%  
26 6% 95%  
27 12% 89%  
28 5% 78%  
29 1.3% 73%  
30 2% 71%  
31 68% 69% Median
32 1.4% 2%  
33 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
34 0% 0.1%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.1% 99.9%  
15 2% 99.8%  
16 68% 98% Median
17 0.7% 30%  
18 10% 30%  
19 5% 19%  
20 0.7% 14% Last Result
21 10% 13%  
22 3% 3%  
23 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.6% 100%  
14 0.7% 99.4% Last Result
15 4% 98.7%  
16 4% 95%  
17 17% 91%  
18 8% 73%  
19 63% 65% Median
20 0.4% 2%  
21 1.3% 1.4%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.3% 100%  
11 1.1% 99.7%  
12 6% 98.7%  
13 60% 93% Median
14 12% 33%  
15 3% 21%  
16 16% 19%  
17 2% 3%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.7% 100%  
13 7% 99.3%  
14 72% 93% Median
15 16% 21%  
16 4% 4%  
17 0% 0.2%  
18 0% 0.1%  
19 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
20 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0.1% 100%  
11 12% 99.9%  
12 2% 88%  
13 4% 86%  
14 58% 82% Median
15 9% 24%  
16 15% 16%  
17 0.7% 1.0%  
18 0.1% 0.2%  
19 0% 0.1%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 4% 99.9%  
11 66% 95% Median
12 4% 29%  
13 16% 25%  
14 3% 9% Last Result
15 5% 6%  
16 0.7% 2%  
17 0.6% 0.8%  
18 0.2% 0.2%  
19 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 1.2% 100%  
7 18% 98.8%  
8 57% 81% Median
9 15% 23% Last Result
10 5% 8%  
11 3% 3%  
12 0.3% 0.4%  
13 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100% Last Result
6 0.4% 99.9%  
7 5% 99.5%  
8 15% 94%  
9 22% 79%  
10 56% 58% Median
11 1.3% 2%  
12 0.6% 0.6%  
13 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.4% 100%  
4 3% 99.6% Last Result
5 17% 96%  
6 71% 80% Median
7 6% 8%  
8 1.1% 2%  
9 1.0% 1.0%  
10 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 4% 100%  
3 18% 96%  
4 15% 79%  
5 60% 64% Last Result, Median
6 4% 4%  
7 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.7% 100%  
2 76% 99.3% Median
3 16% 23% Last Result
4 7% 7%  
5 0.6% 0.6%  
6 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 73% 99.9% Median
2 20% 27%  
3 5% 6% Last Result
4 2% 2%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 90 87 97% 80–87 78–87 75–87 75–87
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 76 93% 76–79 75–79 74–80 72–81
GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 80 75 20% 74–77 74–77 74–78 71–80
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 74 74 17% 74–77 72–77 70–78 69–78
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 85 76 66% 73–76 71–76 68–76 66–79
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 68 0% 65–69 62–69 58–69 57–70
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 66 0% 63–68 63–68 62–68 59–69
GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 66 64 0% 62–65 60–66 59–66 58–68
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 64 0% 60–66 59–66 58–66 57–66
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 60 0% 60–64 58–64 56–64 55–66
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 60 0% 57–63 56–63 56–63 53–63
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 58 0% 54–61 53–61 52–61 51–61
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 58 0% 56–60 54–60 51–60 50–61
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 61 53 0% 49–53 49–53 46–55 46–55
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 52 0% 49–52 48–53 46–53 45–56
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 44 0% 42–45 40–45 37–45 36–47
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 39 0% 34–39 33–39 32–41 31–42
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 47 35 0% 35–39 35–39 33–40 32–41
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 31 0% 30–33 30–33 29–34 27–34
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 27 0% 27–30 26–32 25–32 24–32
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 21 0% 21–25 21–25 20–25 19–26

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.5% 100%  
75 2% 99.5%  
76 0.4% 97% Majority
77 0.5% 97%  
78 2% 96%  
79 1.0% 95%  
80 4% 94%  
81 2% 90%  
82 1.5% 88%  
83 3% 86%  
84 15% 84%  
85 2% 69%  
86 12% 66%  
87 54% 55% Median
88 0% 0.4%  
89 0.1% 0.4%  
90 0% 0.3% Last Result
91 0.3% 0.3%  
92 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.2% 100%  
72 0.8% 99.8%  
73 0.7% 99.0%  
74 2% 98%  
75 3% 96%  
76 55% 93% Median, Majority
77 9% 39% Last Result
78 14% 30%  
79 12% 16%  
80 2% 3%  
81 2% 2%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0% 99.9%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.4% 99.8%  
72 0.6% 99.3%  
73 1.2% 98.7%  
74 8% 98%  
75 70% 90% Median
76 8% 20% Majority
77 8% 13%  
78 3% 5%  
79 0.4% 2%  
80 2% 2% Last Result
81 0% 0.1%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.7% 99.8%  
70 2% 99.1%  
71 0.4% 97%  
72 2% 96%  
73 1.0% 94%  
74 62% 93% Last Result, Median
75 13% 31%  
76 3% 17% Majority
77 11% 14%  
78 3% 3%  
79 0.3% 0.3%  
80 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 2% 100%  
67 0% 98%  
68 0.8% 98%  
69 0.3% 97%  
70 1.2% 97%  
71 0.9% 95%  
72 2% 94%  
73 4% 92%  
74 14% 89%  
75 9% 75%  
76 65% 66% Median, Majority
77 0.5% 1.5%  
78 0.2% 1.0%  
79 0.3% 0.8%  
80 0.3% 0.4%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0% 99.9%  
57 2% 99.9%  
58 0.6% 98%  
59 0.9% 97%  
60 0.2% 96%  
61 0.3% 96%  
62 1.2% 96%  
63 2% 94%  
64 2% 92%  
65 12% 90%  
66 6% 79%  
67 6% 73%  
68 56% 67% Median
69 10% 11%  
70 0.4% 0.8%  
71 0.1% 0.4%  
72 0.2% 0.3%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.6% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.4%  
61 0.6% 99.3% Last Result
62 4% 98.7%  
63 10% 95%  
64 4% 85%  
65 11% 81%  
66 56% 70% Median
67 1.0% 14%  
68 12% 13%  
69 0.7% 1.0%  
70 0.2% 0.3%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0% 99.9%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.2% 99.8%  
58 0.9% 99.6%  
59 3% 98.6%  
60 2% 96%  
61 3% 94%  
62 13% 90%  
63 3% 77%  
64 57% 74% Median
65 8% 17%  
66 8% 9% Last Result
67 0.1% 1.1%  
68 0.9% 1.0%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.2% 99.9%  
57 0.4% 99.8%  
58 3% 99.4% Last Result
59 1.5% 96%  
60 11% 95%  
61 1.5% 84%  
62 6% 82%  
63 7% 76%  
64 57% 69% Median
65 1.0% 12%  
66 11% 11%  
67 0.2% 0.3%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 1.5% 99.8%  
56 1.2% 98%  
57 0.5% 97%  
58 4% 97%  
59 2% 93%  
60 61% 90% Median
61 14% 29%  
62 1.4% 15%  
63 4% 14%  
64 8% 10%  
65 2% 2%  
66 0.7% 0.7%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.6% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.4%  
55 0.3% 99.3%  
56 4% 99.0%  
57 9% 95% Last Result
58 6% 86%  
59 7% 80%  
60 59% 73% Median
61 1.2% 14%  
62 2% 13%  
63 11% 11%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.1% 99.9%  
51 0.4% 99.8%  
52 3% 99.4%  
53 2% 96%  
54 9% 95% Last Result
55 6% 86%  
56 2% 79%  
57 6% 77%  
58 58% 71% Median
59 0.7% 13%  
60 1.3% 12%  
61 11% 11%  
62 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0% 100%  
49 0% 99.9%  
50 2% 99.9%  
51 0.7% 98%  
52 1.0% 97%  
53 0.8% 96%  
54 3% 95%  
55 0.7% 92%  
56 3% 91%  
57 15% 88%  
58 59% 73% Median
59 3% 14%  
60 11% 11%  
61 0.4% 0.8%  
62 0.2% 0.5%  
63 0.3% 0.3%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 3% 99.9%  
47 0.8% 97%  
48 0.7% 96%  
49 6% 95%  
50 14% 89%  
51 0.7% 75%  
52 5% 74%  
53 65% 69% Median
54 0.8% 4%  
55 3% 3%  
56 0.2% 0.5%  
57 0.1% 0.3%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 2% 100%  
46 0.3% 98%  
47 2% 97%  
48 1.1% 95%  
49 6% 94%  
50 3% 88%  
51 3% 86%  
52 74% 82% Median
53 6% 8%  
54 0.6% 2%  
55 0.2% 1.3%  
56 0.9% 1.1%  
57 0% 0.2%  
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100%  
36 2% 99.9%  
37 0.4% 98%  
38 1.0% 97%  
39 1.1% 96%  
40 3% 95%  
41 2% 92%  
42 6% 91%  
43 12% 84%  
44 61% 73% Median
45 11% 12%  
46 0.3% 1.0%  
47 0.3% 0.7%  
48 0.2% 0.4%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.8% 99.9%  
32 3% 99.1%  
33 4% 96%  
34 3% 93%  
35 3% 90%  
36 9% 87%  
37 6% 79%  
38 13% 73%  
39 56% 60% Median
40 0.4% 4%  
41 3% 4%  
42 0.3% 0.7% Last Result
43 0.2% 0.4%  
44 0% 0.1%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100%  
31 0.1% 99.9%  
32 0.8% 99.9%  
33 2% 99.0%  
34 0.4% 97%  
35 55% 97% Median
36 19% 42%  
37 3% 23%  
38 4% 20%  
39 12% 16%  
40 3% 4%  
41 0.2% 0.6%  
42 0.4% 0.4%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 99.9%  
26 0.1% 99.9%  
27 0.4% 99.8%  
28 0.9% 99.4%  
29 3% 98%  
30 16% 95%  
31 58% 79% Median
32 5% 21%  
33 11% 16% Last Result
34 5% 5%  
35 0.3% 0.4%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.3% 100%  
23 0.1% 99.7%  
24 0.5% 99.6%  
25 2% 99.2%  
26 6% 97%  
27 58% 92% Median
28 1.0% 34%  
29 16% 33%  
30 9% 17%  
31 1.4% 8%  
32 6% 6%  
33 0.1% 0.2%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.7% 99.9%  
20 2% 99.1%  
21 66% 97% Median
22 10% 31%  
23 5% 21%  
24 0.8% 16%  
25 13% 15%  
26 2% 2%  
27 0.4% 0.4%  
28 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations